- Jun 3, 2008
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Degenerate Tennis Action
- Thread starter WayneWonder
- Start date
Well, chalk was the way. You were right again. Dumb for me to go against you. Keep em coming.
Shanghai TMS 1000
Novak Djokovic -250 over Nikolay Davydenko
Saw both matches these two played last year and came to the conclusion that Djokovic is simply the better player and nothing that's happened in the past year has changed my view.
In that Shanghai tournament last year I remember Davy was in superb form (straight set wins over Tsonga, Del Potro, and Murray) and looked like he could beat just about anyone but Novak handled him pretty well and I think he will do so here again.
Simon fought hard all the way yesterday but Novak was just that little bit better and I think the same will apply here.
Novak Djokovic -250 over Nikolay Davydenko
Saw both matches these two played last year and came to the conclusion that Djokovic is simply the better player and nothing that's happened in the past year has changed my view.
In that Shanghai tournament last year I remember Davy was in superb form (straight set wins over Tsonga, Del Potro, and Murray) and looked like he could beat just about anyone but Novak handled him pretty well and I think he will do so here again.
Simon fought hard all the way yesterday but Novak was just that little bit better and I think the same will apply here.
I have the following wager pending:
Oct 11 11:50pm Tennis - Pending 50.00 to win 210.00
1. Tennis - ATP Shanghai Masters 1000 - Shanghai, China
Odds to win
Odds to win the 2009 Shanghai ATP Masters 1000
Rafael Nadal (+420) [pending]
The good news, Rafa has made it back to a final. This is important for his confidence. Each of the four tournaments Rafa has entered post-injury have ended with him being beat convincingly before reaching the final. The three players who have done so can certainly be considered elite hardcourt players (Djokovic, Cilic and Delpo twice) yet he was beat in straights in each of those four matches, playing arguably only one competitive set. The bad news, I am officially worried at this point. Rafa's struggles against Blake and Ljubicic concern me, as does his crushing defeat at the hands of Cilic last week.
Fatigue has got to be an issue for Nikolay after yesterday's epic with Djokovic and that is a real worry for me, particularly in view of Rafa's easy, retirement littered passage to the final. The positive side to that is his game has been honed to a high degree by some tough battles and that having come through those battles has given him enormous confidence. He's also incredibly fit and used to playing many matches on Tour - in fact he plays more tournaments than most. Still, the fatigue issue worries me.
Motivation isn't an issue here - while Davydenko seals a place in London with a win here and has enormous incentive, Rafa is Rafa - he's one of the great competitors and wants to win everything he contests - he never gives up and we saw that highlighted very well last week against Cilic.
This really is a case of either having faith in Nadal or faith in form (Davydenko). I do think Rafa has a fair shot at taking this, but against a superb opponent on this surface, I feel the smart money is with Davydenko.
DAVYDENKO +160 over Nadal
Oct 11 11:50pm Tennis - Pending 50.00 to win 210.00
1. Tennis - ATP Shanghai Masters 1000 - Shanghai, China
Odds to win
Odds to win the 2009 Shanghai ATP Masters 1000
Rafael Nadal (+420) [pending]
The good news, Rafa has made it back to a final. This is important for his confidence. Each of the four tournaments Rafa has entered post-injury have ended with him being beat convincingly before reaching the final. The three players who have done so can certainly be considered elite hardcourt players (Djokovic, Cilic and Delpo twice) yet he was beat in straights in each of those four matches, playing arguably only one competitive set. The bad news, I am officially worried at this point. Rafa's struggles against Blake and Ljubicic concern me, as does his crushing defeat at the hands of Cilic last week.
Fatigue has got to be an issue for Nikolay after yesterday's epic with Djokovic and that is a real worry for me, particularly in view of Rafa's easy, retirement littered passage to the final. The positive side to that is his game has been honed to a high degree by some tough battles and that having come through those battles has given him enormous confidence. He's also incredibly fit and used to playing many matches on Tour - in fact he plays more tournaments than most. Still, the fatigue issue worries me.
Motivation isn't an issue here - while Davydenko seals a place in London with a win here and has enormous incentive, Rafa is Rafa - he's one of the great competitors and wants to win everything he contests - he never gives up and we saw that highlighted very well last week against Cilic.
This really is a case of either having faith in Nadal or faith in form (Davydenko). I do think Rafa has a fair shot at taking this, but against a superb opponent on this surface, I feel the smart money is with Davydenko.
DAVYDENKO +160 over Nadal
ATP Kremlin Cup
Tread lightly here as this tournament has almost implication for either player. I cannot think of a reason for eSafither player to be motivated, although Davydenko always plays tough. He has spent a lot of time on the court over the last few weeks and now travels from China to a meaningless tournament in Russia. He may be glad to be home and looking for some downtime before heading off to London. In that case, give me the doggie...
Marat Safin +160 over Nikolay Davydenko
Tread lightly here as this tournament has almost implication for either player. I cannot think of a reason for eSafither player to be motivated, although Davydenko always plays tough. He has spent a lot of time on the court over the last few weeks and now travels from China to a meaningless tournament in Russia. He may be glad to be home and looking for some downtime before heading off to London. In that case, give me the doggie...
Marat Safin +160 over Nikolay Davydenko
WTA Kremlin
Vera Dushevina -220 over Agnes Szvay
Agnes looked to be in very poor form in her first round encounter and must consider herself fortunate to even be here as Penetta was generally dominating play in the first set before retiring with a knee injury. Szvay has had a year to forget and Dushevina, a former Moscow QFist, should have no problem advancing to the next round here.
Vera Dushevina -220 over Agnes Szvay
Agnes looked to be in very poor form in her first round encounter and must consider herself fortunate to even be here as Penetta was generally dominating play in the first set before retiring with a knee injury. Szvay has had a year to forget and Dushevina, a former Moscow QFist, should have no problem advancing to the next round here.
WTA Luxemborg
Kristen Flipkens +310 over Yanina Wickmayer
ATP Moscow
Robby Ginepri +135 over Janko Tipsarevic
Kristen Flipkens +310 over Yanina Wickmayer
ATP Moscow
Robby Ginepri +135 over Janko Tipsarevic
WTA DOHA
Jankovic +110 OVER Safina
It is improbable that Jelena will play as poorly as she did against Azarenka today, saying after the match "I beat myself. I was just a shadow of myself." Dinara has been shaky to finish the season, sporting a .500 record in her last ten matches. Many of these have been close losses, three-set affairs and/or losses in tiebreakers. This to me indicates a creep of mental doubt that has plagued her throughout her career. Safina played poorly at the year end championships last year, losing all three matches while failing to win a set. Safina also seems to shrink when playing the elite women, having lost her last three against top 10 players and six of her last ten. Coupled with Jelena's convincing victory in their last match (2 and 2 @ Cincy final in August) and I think we have a winner here boys...
Jankovic +110 OVER Safina
It is improbable that Jelena will play as poorly as she did against Azarenka today, saying after the match "I beat myself. I was just a shadow of myself." Dinara has been shaky to finish the season, sporting a .500 record in her last ten matches. Many of these have been close losses, three-set affairs and/or losses in tiebreakers. This to me indicates a creep of mental doubt that has plagued her throughout her career. Safina played poorly at the year end championships last year, losing all three matches while failing to win a set. Safina also seems to shrink when playing the elite women, having lost her last three against top 10 players and six of her last ten. Coupled with Jelena's convincing victory in their last match (2 and 2 @ Cincy final in August) and I think we have a winner here boys...
- Jun 23, 2008
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I agree Wayne.
Safina has been downright pathetic lately.
Let's go for it.
:toast:
WTA Doha
Zvonereva (no line as of yet) OVER Wozniacki
Would not be surprised to see Woz retire in the match or prior to. She is first on court tomorrow following today's marathon match. She looked as though her sore hamstring was bothering her throughout the match as well as the extreme humidity and heat on court. Zvonereva has had much success in Qatar winning 8 of her last 10 including two appearances in a final.
Dementieva +145 OVER Serena
Serena is now the year end number one. She has clinched a spot in the semis. She, too, is coming off a marathon match against Venus. This will be her third match in three days in these conditions. Kuznetsova played her tough in a two set loss Monday. The only motivation I can see for Serena is the slim chance that Venus can still make the semis. This can happen if she beats Kuznetsova on Thursday and Serena defeats Elena Dementieva.
Zvonereva (no line as of yet) OVER Wozniacki
Would not be surprised to see Woz retire in the match or prior to. She is first on court tomorrow following today's marathon match. She looked as though her sore hamstring was bothering her throughout the match as well as the extreme humidity and heat on court. Zvonereva has had much success in Qatar winning 8 of her last 10 including two appearances in a final.
Dementieva +145 OVER Serena
Serena is now the year end number one. She has clinched a spot in the semis. She, too, is coming off a marathon match against Venus. This will be her third match in three days in these conditions. Kuznetsova played her tough in a two set loss Monday. The only motivation I can see for Serena is the slim chance that Venus can still make the semis. This can happen if she beats Kuznetsova on Thursday and Serena defeats Elena Dementieva.
I could not have been any more wrong about the first two, so tread lightly. Venus still can make semis with a win here.
Venus +127
Venus +127
WTA Doha - Friday
Kuznetsova +180 OVER Dementieva
I am not entirely confident that Svetlana will win this match, but these odds seem too good to pass up. She has not been stellar in this format throughout her career, but she does hold a 6-4 h2h edge in this matchup. One cannot be faulted for losing close matches to each of the Williams sisters. While nobody would debate that Elena is an elite player, she is just 3-7 in her last 10 against players in the top 10, including a loss earlier this year to Svetlana. I feel that if these two met on day one this would be closer to +125 for Kuz, so why not take a shot with her at +180.
Kuznetsova +180 OVER Dementieva
I am not entirely confident that Svetlana will win this match, but these odds seem too good to pass up. She has not been stellar in this format throughout her career, but she does hold a 6-4 h2h edge in this matchup. One cannot be faulted for losing close matches to each of the Williams sisters. While nobody would debate that Elena is an elite player, she is just 3-7 in her last 10 against players in the top 10, including a loss earlier this year to Svetlana. I feel that if these two met on day one this would be closer to +125 for Kuz, so why not take a shot with her at +180.
