First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Kansas(+3)(-130) over BYU (1*)
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Oregon(-13') over Wisconsin (1*)
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Cincinnati(+7) over Iowa State (1*)
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Tennessee(+8') over Georgia (1*)
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GL
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Oregon(-13') over Wisconsin (1*)
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Cincinnati(+7) over Iowa State (1*)
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Tennessee(+8') over Georgia (1*)
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GL
Posting earlier than usual because I’m about to start a road trip to Green Bay for the Packers and 49ers game. Posting earlier, capping not as thorough, and somewhat fewer plays.
Iowa State(-6') over Utah (1*)
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Penn State(-11') over Minnesota (1*)
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Kansas State(-8') over Cincinnati (1*)
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Nebraska(-1) over Wisconsin (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Maryland (1*)
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Mississippi(-11') over Florida (1*)
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Indiana(+10') over Ohio State (1*)
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Colorado(-2') over Kansas (1*)
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Stanford(+15) over California (1*)
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Alabama(-14) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Boston College(+3) over North Carolina (1*)
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Texas A&M(-2) over Auburn (1*)
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Army(+14) over Notre Dame (1*)
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Missouri(-8) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
Iowa State(-6') over Utah (1*)
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Penn State(-11') over Minnesota (1*)
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Kansas State(-8') over Cincinnati (1*)
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Nebraska(-1) over Wisconsin (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Maryland (1*)
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Mississippi(-11') over Florida (1*)
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Indiana(+10') over Ohio State (1*)
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Colorado(-2') over Kansas (1*)
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Stanford(+15) over California (1*)
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Alabama(-14) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Boston College(+3) over North Carolina (1*)
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Texas A&M(-2) over Auburn (1*)
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Army(+14) over Notre Dame (1*)
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Missouri(-8) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
I really, really liked the NFL card on Thursday (went 2-1).
I liked the NCAA card on Friday (went 3-0-2).
I like the NCAA card today, and really like maybe 8 or 10 plays.
I like the NFL card on Sunday, and really like maybe 3 or 4 plays.
When I like a card, I sometimes find that I should have been selective and stuck with only my top plays, but other times I find my top plays were not so hot, and I’m glad I went with my entire card.
With the season just about over, this week is about the last time I will get to make plays based on a store of INFORMATION and ANGLES built up over the course of a full season of paying attention and working hard and learning fresh lessons.
With a good start to this week, and with my season long bankroll still plenty healthy for a full season of Bowl games and another month of the NFL and a full season of NFL playoff games, I’ll be stepping up with my customary small wagers on every game that appeals the rest of this weekend, to see what I know or what I don’t know. My last out and last in changes today are to drop North Carolina(-2') and add Penn State(-25).
Kansas(+1) over Baylor (1*)
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Boston College(-3)(-130) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Indiana(-29) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa State(-1') over Kansas State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7) over USC (1*)
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Louisville(-4) over Kentucky (1*)
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Michigan(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Syracuse(+11) over Miami (1*)
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Army(-6)(-105) over UTSA (1*)
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Arizona State(-8) over Arizona (1*)
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South Carolina(+3)(-130) over Clemson (1*)
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Texas(-4') over Texas A&M (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+10) over Tennessee (1*)
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Virginia(+6') over Virginia Tech (1*)
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Arkansas(+3) over Missouri (1*)
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Michigan State(-1') over Rutgers (1*)
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Penn State(-25) over Maryland (1*)
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SMU(-13) over California (1*)
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Washington(+18) over Oregon (1*)
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GL
I liked the NCAA card on Friday (went 3-0-2).
I like the NCAA card today, and really like maybe 8 or 10 plays.
I like the NFL card on Sunday, and really like maybe 3 or 4 plays.
When I like a card, I sometimes find that I should have been selective and stuck with only my top plays, but other times I find my top plays were not so hot, and I’m glad I went with my entire card.
With the season just about over, this week is about the last time I will get to make plays based on a store of INFORMATION and ANGLES built up over the course of a full season of paying attention and working hard and learning fresh lessons.
With a good start to this week, and with my season long bankroll still plenty healthy for a full season of Bowl games and another month of the NFL and a full season of NFL playoff games, I’ll be stepping up with my customary small wagers on every game that appeals the rest of this weekend, to see what I know or what I don’t know. My last out and last in changes today are to drop North Carolina(-2') and add Penn State(-25).
Kansas(+1) over Baylor (1*)
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Boston College(-3)(-130) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Indiana(-29) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa State(-1') over Kansas State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7) over USC (1*)
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Louisville(-4) over Kentucky (1*)
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Michigan(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Syracuse(+11) over Miami (1*)
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Army(-6)(-105) over UTSA (1*)
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Arizona State(-8) over Arizona (1*)
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South Carolina(+3)(-130) over Clemson (1*)
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Texas(-4') over Texas A&M (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+10) over Tennessee (1*)
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Virginia(+6') over Virginia Tech (1*)
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Arkansas(+3) over Missouri (1*)
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Michigan State(-1') over Rutgers (1*)
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Penn State(-25) over Maryland (1*)
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SMU(-13) over California (1*)
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Washington(+18) over Oregon (1*)
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GL
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12-8 (+3.15*) for today. 3-0 (+3.00) for Friday. Switching out North Carolina(-2) for Penn State(-25) greatly enhanced my feelings about what I knew and what I didn't know to close out the regular season on rivalry weekend.
GL
GL
Oregon(-3)(-120) over Penn State (1*)
- - Simply put, I’m not seeing what the oddsmakers are seeing when Dan Lanning has a better team than James Franklin in a championship game.
Texas(-2')(-115) over Georgia (1*)
- - I really like Texas to avenge their earlier beatdown. But simply put, I can’t like it like I like Oregon.
GL
- - Simply put, I’m not seeing what the oddsmakers are seeing when Dan Lanning has a better team than James Franklin in a championship game.
Texas(-2')(-115) over Georgia (1*)
- - I really like Texas to avenge their earlier beatdown. But simply put, I can’t like it like I like Oregon.
GL
Arizona State(+1) over Iowa State (1*)
- - On the one hand, Iowa State has really not been the same trending juggernaut since they peaked against West Virginia. On the other hand, down the stretch and amidst the chaos I still never doubted they would do enough to be one of the teams to make the championship game, and HC Matt Campbell has the proven program and veteran weapons to now finish the job. But I have to ride with the surging Dust Devils bringing enough magic this week to cap their storybook season.
SMU(-2) over Clemson (1*)
- - Can’t say I’m too keen on having either team carry much of my cash while being asked to step up in any ginormous game. But in recent weeks I’ve been much inclined and reasonably successful backing SMU as undervalued ATS and fading Clemson as overvalued ATS, and while this seems an uptick in competition for SMU to face Dabo Swinney on an 8-0 run in ACC championship games (usually as the big #1 seeded favorite), I can’t justify a zig-zag here against not just one but two prevailing notions.
Miami (Ohio)(-2) over Ohio (1*)
- - I have shied away from almost any MACtion in recent years, with the one notable exception being a sweet run backing Miami (Ohio) all through the 2023 season with HC Chuck Martin, and with and without QB Brett Gabbert. With the same principals looking to secure another championship today, I’m in with another capper’s take, “there's a lot in the (season long and matchup) numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but () can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 (from their earlier beatdown) against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.”
GL
- - On the one hand, Iowa State has really not been the same trending juggernaut since they peaked against West Virginia. On the other hand, down the stretch and amidst the chaos I still never doubted they would do enough to be one of the teams to make the championship game, and HC Matt Campbell has the proven program and veteran weapons to now finish the job. But I have to ride with the surging Dust Devils bringing enough magic this week to cap their storybook season.
SMU(-2) over Clemson (1*)
- - Can’t say I’m too keen on having either team carry much of my cash while being asked to step up in any ginormous game. But in recent weeks I’ve been much inclined and reasonably successful backing SMU as undervalued ATS and fading Clemson as overvalued ATS, and while this seems an uptick in competition for SMU to face Dabo Swinney on an 8-0 run in ACC championship games (usually as the big #1 seeded favorite), I can’t justify a zig-zag here against not just one but two prevailing notions.
Miami (Ohio)(-2) over Ohio (1*)
- - I have shied away from almost any MACtion in recent years, with the one notable exception being a sweet run backing Miami (Ohio) all through the 2023 season with HC Chuck Martin, and with and without QB Brett Gabbert. With the same principals looking to secure another championship today, I’m in with another capper’s take, “there's a lot in the (season long and matchup) numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but () can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 (from their earlier beatdown) against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.”
GL
Iowa State(-5')(-115)(2h) over Arizona State (1*)
- - I love watching football games, and I'm willing to wager this is a 60 minute affair.
GL
- - I love watching football games, and I'm willing to wager this is a 60 minute affair.
GL
Indiana(+7) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - For at least a month I’ve had both teams and both coaches on my radar for pulling surprises in the CFP. I definitely see this Indiana team as better and much more dangerous than either the Louisville or USC teams which went toe to toe with ND, except in crucial turnovers, in games which had the full focus and effort of the Irish. On home state soil, I expect a really fine effort from the Hoosiers as live dogs.
Talking Hoosiers (Link): https://www.indystar.com/story/spor...off-cfp-upset-playoff-prediction/77100503007/
GL
- - For at least a month I’ve had both teams and both coaches on my radar for pulling surprises in the CFP. I definitely see this Indiana team as better and much more dangerous than either the Louisville or USC teams which went toe to toe with ND, except in crucial turnovers, in games which had the full focus and effort of the Irish. On home state soil, I expect a really fine effort from the Hoosiers as live dogs.
Talking Hoosiers (Link): https://www.indystar.com/story/spor...off-cfp-upset-playoff-prediction/77100503007/
GL
Penn State(-9) over SMU (1*)
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Texas(-13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-7)(-115) over Tennessee (1*)
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GL
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Texas(-13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-7)(-115) over Tennessee (1*)
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GL
2024-2025 Bowl Season YTD: 4-2 (+1.80*)
I was definitely looking at a play on Fresno State(+2') over Northern Illinois. And since I never buy points, except I always buy at -3' and +2', my wager would have been Fresno State(+3)(-130). But in the end, I liked the Green Bay(-14) play so fucking much more, that I chose not to taint that Monday wager with a play I had absolutely no strong feelings about. Sure enough, I would have felt sick about a wager on Fresno given the way that game ended. Then I was looking at a play on San Jose State(+1') in Hawaii, but passed on that, too, again because of a lack of any strong feelings, which was the right decision again, after five overtimes. . . . So as an Iowa Hawkeye football fan, for the last few years we have been saying a lot, “kicking is winning.” By the same token, your bankroll knows it is often the case that “not betting is winning”.
Rutgers(+7) over Kansas State (1*)
- - Notwithstanding what I wrote above, I make lots of plays every week and every year that are nothing special, it’s just what I do, bet on football games all weekend, it just so happens that two of the possible plays I passed on in recent days were both the right choice . . . Here, I just think this game means a hell of a lot more to Rutgers, and I feel there is not a hell of a lot that separates these teams in terms of achievement or potential . . . Or not.
Toledo(+6') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - This one is a switch from my initial instincts when the Bowl schedule was announced. Why? At first blush I was thinking Pitt might be highly motivated to take this game and try to salvage something from their season, provided they had the crucial piece of getting back QB Eli Holstein, who absolutely fueled their overachieving 7-0 start. Well, Eli is playing, but after my usual amount of reading and research, I’m not sensing any big motivation on the Pitt side, and I’m seeing some legitimate threats on the Toledo side, so I think this might play out as a very entertaining game with a live dog . . . Or not.
GL
I was definitely looking at a play on Fresno State(+2') over Northern Illinois. And since I never buy points, except I always buy at -3' and +2', my wager would have been Fresno State(+3)(-130). But in the end, I liked the Green Bay(-14) play so fucking much more, that I chose not to taint that Monday wager with a play I had absolutely no strong feelings about. Sure enough, I would have felt sick about a wager on Fresno given the way that game ended. Then I was looking at a play on San Jose State(+1') in Hawaii, but passed on that, too, again because of a lack of any strong feelings, which was the right decision again, after five overtimes. . . . So as an Iowa Hawkeye football fan, for the last few years we have been saying a lot, “kicking is winning.” By the same token, your bankroll knows it is often the case that “not betting is winning”.
Rutgers(+7) over Kansas State (1*)
- - Notwithstanding what I wrote above, I make lots of plays every week and every year that are nothing special, it’s just what I do, bet on football games all weekend, it just so happens that two of the possible plays I passed on in recent days were both the right choice . . . Here, I just think this game means a hell of a lot more to Rutgers, and I feel there is not a hell of a lot that separates these teams in terms of achievement or potential . . . Or not.
Toledo(+6') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - This one is a switch from my initial instincts when the Bowl schedule was announced. Why? At first blush I was thinking Pitt might be highly motivated to take this game and try to salvage something from their season, provided they had the crucial piece of getting back QB Eli Holstein, who absolutely fueled their overachieving 7-0 start. Well, Eli is playing, but after my usual amount of reading and research, I’m not sensing any big motivation on the Pitt side, and I’m seeing some legitimate threats on the Toledo side, so I think this might play out as a very entertaining game with a live dog . . . Or not.
GL
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2024-2025 Bowl Season YTD: 6-2 (+3.80*)
- - Seems like every year my Bowl record is within a game or two of .500, which is really disappointing (recently: 2023-2024 Bowl Season: 13-14 (-4.25*); 2022-2023 Bowl Season: 15-14 (-0.90*); 2021-2022 Bowl Season: 13-12 (-1.43*)). Would love a 4-1 day today to bust out from .500 territory, but more likely a 2-3 day and back toward .500 is probably in store . . . Then it’s eight (8!) Bowl games to try and cap for Saturday, and I don’t ever remember a day with that much Bowl action.
Syracuse(-18) over Washington State (1*)
- - Syracuse has looked pretty damn solid all season, and now they face a Washington State team that is down everything, which resulted in a 0-45 beat down for Syracuse in their Bowl game last year under similar circumstances. Easily my strongest play of the day.
Vanderbilt(+3) over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - I have a rooting interest in this one to close out the 2024 season. Simply put, a refreshed Diego Pavia will carry my cash and those Commodores in another big ask here.
Texas Tech(-2') over Arkansas (1*)
- - Another game that’s a switch from my initial instincts when the Bowl schedule was announced. Why? Not remotely close to the Arkansas team I thought would be playing, facing a Tech team that beat Arizona State and Iowa State.
Navy(Pk) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - Not worried about motivation and preparation and opt outs with a disciplined academy squad playing for each other (over the last 10 years, the academies are 14-3 ATS in Bowl games), and this Navy team in particular really impressed and surprised me against Army. Oklahoma is down at least two important opt outs on defense, and I’m not counting on a disappointed Oklahoma team having spent a ton of time being drilled on the Navy offense.
Leaning both ways on the USC vs. Texas A&M game, but doubt that I pass.
GL
- - Seems like every year my Bowl record is within a game or two of .500, which is really disappointing (recently: 2023-2024 Bowl Season: 13-14 (-4.25*); 2022-2023 Bowl Season: 15-14 (-0.90*); 2021-2022 Bowl Season: 13-12 (-1.43*)). Would love a 4-1 day today to bust out from .500 territory, but more likely a 2-3 day and back toward .500 is probably in store . . . Then it’s eight (8!) Bowl games to try and cap for Saturday, and I don’t ever remember a day with that much Bowl action.
Syracuse(-18) over Washington State (1*)
- - Syracuse has looked pretty damn solid all season, and now they face a Washington State team that is down everything, which resulted in a 0-45 beat down for Syracuse in their Bowl game last year under similar circumstances. Easily my strongest play of the day.
Vanderbilt(+3) over Georgia Tech (1*)
- - I have a rooting interest in this one to close out the 2024 season. Simply put, a refreshed Diego Pavia will carry my cash and those Commodores in another big ask here.
Texas Tech(-2') over Arkansas (1*)
- - Another game that’s a switch from my initial instincts when the Bowl schedule was announced. Why? Not remotely close to the Arkansas team I thought would be playing, facing a Tech team that beat Arizona State and Iowa State.
Navy(Pk) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - Not worried about motivation and preparation and opt outs with a disciplined academy squad playing for each other (over the last 10 years, the academies are 14-3 ATS in Bowl games), and this Navy team in particular really impressed and surprised me against Army. Oklahoma is down at least two important opt outs on defense, and I’m not counting on a disappointed Oklahoma team having spent a ton of time being drilled on the Navy offense.
Leaning both ways on the USC vs. Texas A&M game, but doubt that I pass.
GL
USC (+3') over Texas A&M (1*)
- - For starters, I think I hate both coaches . . . After USC took a 45-30 lead over Tulane with 4:30 left in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, and then the lead was cut to 8 just two plays later, the fucking retard Lincoln Riley was afraid to let Caleb Williams take charge and win the game, and after a disastrous playing not to lose finish by Riley and USC, Caleb has never been quite the same phenom since then . . . Mike Elko was never really much on my radar until he took to the podium after beating LSU in October to announce, “This is a real program, it’s not fake, it’s not a politician running this program, talking fast and BSing everybody, this is a real program.” I’m not sure whether those comments were intended as a slam against Brian Kelly or Jimbo Fisher or both, but he sure sounded like an arrogant putz to me. When his team lost the next week by 24 points to South Carolina, on their way to losing 3 of their last 4 games, I know I enjoyed the slide more than most . . . So what to do here, as USC returns to Allegiant Stadium where they started the season? I know I’ll hate Lincoln Riley even more if he decides this is the Bowl game to pull out all the stops, so I’ll cheer for that.
GL
- - For starters, I think I hate both coaches . . . After USC took a 45-30 lead over Tulane with 4:30 left in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, and then the lead was cut to 8 just two plays later, the fucking retard Lincoln Riley was afraid to let Caleb Williams take charge and win the game, and after a disastrous playing not to lose finish by Riley and USC, Caleb has never been quite the same phenom since then . . . Mike Elko was never really much on my radar until he took to the podium after beating LSU in October to announce, “This is a real program, it’s not fake, it’s not a politician running this program, talking fast and BSing everybody, this is a real program.” I’m not sure whether those comments were intended as a slam against Brian Kelly or Jimbo Fisher or both, but he sure sounded like an arrogant putz to me. When his team lost the next week by 24 points to South Carolina, on their way to losing 3 of their last 4 games, I know I enjoyed the slide more than most . . . So what to do here, as USC returns to Allegiant Stadium where they started the season? I know I’ll hate Lincoln Riley even more if he decides this is the Bowl game to pull out all the stops, so I’ll cheer for that.
GL
