First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Kansas(+3)(-130) over BYU (1*)
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Oregon(-13') over Wisconsin (1*)
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Cincinnati(+7) over Iowa State (1*)
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Tennessee(+8') over Georgia (1*)
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GL
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Oregon(-13') over Wisconsin (1*)
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Cincinnati(+7) over Iowa State (1*)
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Tennessee(+8') over Georgia (1*)
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GL
Posting earlier than usual because I’m about to start a road trip to Green Bay for the Packers and 49ers game. Posting earlier, capping not as thorough, and somewhat fewer plays.
Iowa State(-6') over Utah (1*)
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Penn State(-11') over Minnesota (1*)
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Kansas State(-8') over Cincinnati (1*)
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Nebraska(-1) over Wisconsin (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Maryland (1*)
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Mississippi(-11') over Florida (1*)
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Indiana(+10') over Ohio State (1*)
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Colorado(-2') over Kansas (1*)
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Stanford(+15) over California (1*)
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Alabama(-14) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Boston College(+3) over North Carolina (1*)
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Texas A&M(-2) over Auburn (1*)
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Army(+14) over Notre Dame (1*)
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Missouri(-8) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
Iowa State(-6') over Utah (1*)
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Penn State(-11') over Minnesota (1*)
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Kansas State(-8') over Cincinnati (1*)
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Nebraska(-1) over Wisconsin (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Maryland (1*)
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Mississippi(-11') over Florida (1*)
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Indiana(+10') over Ohio State (1*)
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Colorado(-2') over Kansas (1*)
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Stanford(+15) over California (1*)
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Alabama(-14) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Boston College(+3) over North Carolina (1*)
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Texas A&M(-2) over Auburn (1*)
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Army(+14) over Notre Dame (1*)
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Missouri(-8) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
I really, really liked the NFL card on Thursday (went 2-1).
I liked the NCAA card on Friday (went 3-0-2).
I like the NCAA card today, and really like maybe 8 or 10 plays.
I like the NFL card on Sunday, and really like maybe 3 or 4 plays.
When I like a card, I sometimes find that I should have been selective and stuck with only my top plays, but other times I find my top plays were not so hot, and I’m glad I went with my entire card.
With the season just about over, this week is about the last time I will get to make plays based on a store of INFORMATION and ANGLES built up over the course of a full season of paying attention and working hard and learning fresh lessons.
With a good start to this week, and with my season long bankroll still plenty healthy for a full season of Bowl games and another month of the NFL and a full season of NFL playoff games, I’ll be stepping up with my customary small wagers on every game that appeals the rest of this weekend, to see what I know or what I don’t know. My last out and last in changes today are to drop North Carolina(-2') and add Penn State(-25).
Kansas(+1) over Baylor (1*)
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Boston College(-3)(-130) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Indiana(-29) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa State(-1') over Kansas State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7) over USC (1*)
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Louisville(-4) over Kentucky (1*)
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Michigan(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Syracuse(+11) over Miami (1*)
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Army(-6)(-105) over UTSA (1*)
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Arizona State(-8) over Arizona (1*)
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South Carolina(+3)(-130) over Clemson (1*)
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Texas(-4') over Texas A&M (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+10) over Tennessee (1*)
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Virginia(+6') over Virginia Tech (1*)
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Arkansas(+3) over Missouri (1*)
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Michigan State(-1') over Rutgers (1*)
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Penn State(-25) over Maryland (1*)
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SMU(-13) over California (1*)
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Washington(+18) over Oregon (1*)
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GL
I liked the NCAA card on Friday (went 3-0-2).
I like the NCAA card today, and really like maybe 8 or 10 plays.
I like the NFL card on Sunday, and really like maybe 3 or 4 plays.
When I like a card, I sometimes find that I should have been selective and stuck with only my top plays, but other times I find my top plays were not so hot, and I’m glad I went with my entire card.
With the season just about over, this week is about the last time I will get to make plays based on a store of INFORMATION and ANGLES built up over the course of a full season of paying attention and working hard and learning fresh lessons.
With a good start to this week, and with my season long bankroll still plenty healthy for a full season of Bowl games and another month of the NFL and a full season of NFL playoff games, I’ll be stepping up with my customary small wagers on every game that appeals the rest of this weekend, to see what I know or what I don’t know. My last out and last in changes today are to drop North Carolina(-2') and add Penn State(-25).
Kansas(+1) over Baylor (1*)
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Boston College(-3)(-130) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Indiana(-29) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa State(-1') over Kansas State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7) over USC (1*)
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Louisville(-4) over Kentucky (1*)
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Michigan(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Syracuse(+11) over Miami (1*)
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Army(-6)(-105) over UTSA (1*)
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Arizona State(-8) over Arizona (1*)
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South Carolina(+3)(-130) over Clemson (1*)
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Texas(-4') over Texas A&M (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+10) over Tennessee (1*)
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Virginia(+6') over Virginia Tech (1*)
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Arkansas(+3) over Missouri (1*)
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Michigan State(-1') over Rutgers (1*)
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Penn State(-25) over Maryland (1*)
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SMU(-13) over California (1*)
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Washington(+18) over Oregon (1*)
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GL
Last edited:
12-8 (+3.15*) for today. 3-0 (+3.00) for Friday. Switching out North Carolina(-2) for Penn State(-25) greatly enhanced my feelings about what I knew and what I didn't know to close out the regular season on rivalry weekend.
GL
GL
Oregon(-3)(-120) over Penn State (1*)
- - Simply put, I’m not seeing what the oddsmakers are seeing when Dan Lanning has a better team than James Franklin in a championship game.
Texas(-2')(-115) over Georgia (1*)
- - I really like Texas to avenge their earlier beatdown. But simply put, I can’t like it like I like Oregon.
GL
- - Simply put, I’m not seeing what the oddsmakers are seeing when Dan Lanning has a better team than James Franklin in a championship game.
Texas(-2')(-115) over Georgia (1*)
- - I really like Texas to avenge their earlier beatdown. But simply put, I can’t like it like I like Oregon.
GL
Arizona State(+1) over Iowa State (1*)
- - On the one hand, Iowa State has really not been the same trending juggernaut since they peaked against West Virginia. On the other hand, down the stretch and amidst the chaos I still never doubted they would do enough to be one of the teams to make the championship game, and HC Matt Campbell has the proven program and veteran weapons to now finish the job. But I have to ride with the surging Dust Devils bringing enough magic this week to cap their storybook season.
SMU(-2) over Clemson (1*)
- - Can’t say I’m too keen on having either team carry much of my cash while being asked to step up in any ginormous game. But in recent weeks I’ve been much inclined and reasonably successful backing SMU as undervalued ATS and fading Clemson as overvalued ATS, and while this seems an uptick in competition for SMU to face Dabo Swinney on an 8-0 run in ACC championship games (usually as the big #1 seeded favorite), I can’t justify a zig-zag here against not just one but two prevailing notions.
Miami (Ohio)(-2) over Ohio (1*)
- - I have shied away from almost any MACtion in recent years, with the one notable exception being a sweet run backing Miami (Ohio) all through the 2023 season with HC Chuck Martin, and with and without QB Brett Gabbert. With the same principals looking to secure another championship today, I’m in with another capper’s take, “there's a lot in the (season long and matchup) numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but () can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 (from their earlier beatdown) against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.”
GL
- - On the one hand, Iowa State has really not been the same trending juggernaut since they peaked against West Virginia. On the other hand, down the stretch and amidst the chaos I still never doubted they would do enough to be one of the teams to make the championship game, and HC Matt Campbell has the proven program and veteran weapons to now finish the job. But I have to ride with the surging Dust Devils bringing enough magic this week to cap their storybook season.
SMU(-2) over Clemson (1*)
- - Can’t say I’m too keen on having either team carry much of my cash while being asked to step up in any ginormous game. But in recent weeks I’ve been much inclined and reasonably successful backing SMU as undervalued ATS and fading Clemson as overvalued ATS, and while this seems an uptick in competition for SMU to face Dabo Swinney on an 8-0 run in ACC championship games (usually as the big #1 seeded favorite), I can’t justify a zig-zag here against not just one but two prevailing notions.
Miami (Ohio)(-2) over Ohio (1*)
- - I have shied away from almost any MACtion in recent years, with the one notable exception being a sweet run backing Miami (Ohio) all through the 2023 season with HC Chuck Martin, and with and without QB Brett Gabbert. With the same principals looking to secure another championship today, I’m in with another capper’s take, “there's a lot in the (season long and matchup) numbers to suggest a shot on taking the points with Ohio, but () can't imagine Ohio can make such a 180 (from their earlier beatdown) against this Miami team, especially with a QB who doesn't elicit any confidence.”
GL
Iowa State(-5')(-115)(2h) over Arizona State (1*)
- - I love watching football games, and I'm willing to wager this is a 60 minute affair.
GL
- - I love watching football games, and I'm willing to wager this is a 60 minute affair.
GL
Indiana(+7) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - For at least a month I’ve had both teams and both coaches on my radar for pulling surprises in the CFP. I definitely see this Indiana team as better and much more dangerous than either the Louisville or USC teams which went toe to toe with ND, except in crucial turnovers, in games which had the full focus and effort of the Irish. On home state soil, I expect a really fine effort from the Hoosiers as live dogs.
Talking Hoosiers (Link): https://www.indystar.com/story/spor...off-cfp-upset-playoff-prediction/77100503007/
GL
- - For at least a month I’ve had both teams and both coaches on my radar for pulling surprises in the CFP. I definitely see this Indiana team as better and much more dangerous than either the Louisville or USC teams which went toe to toe with ND, except in crucial turnovers, in games which had the full focus and effort of the Irish. On home state soil, I expect a really fine effort from the Hoosiers as live dogs.
Talking Hoosiers (Link): https://www.indystar.com/story/spor...off-cfp-upset-playoff-prediction/77100503007/
GL
Penn State(-9) over SMU (1*)
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Texas(-13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-7)(-115) over Tennessee (1*)
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GL
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Texas(-13') over Clemson (1*)
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Ohio State(-7)(-115) over Tennessee (1*)
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GL
