First and Ten

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2024-2025 Bowl Season YTD: 9-4 (+4.60*)

Boston College(+3') over Nebraska (1*)
- - I see these teams as pretty evenly matched in lots of areas, including motivation. One difference in favor of BC might be that they don’t have the baggage that Nebraska has been toting for years in trying to emerge from a dark place, which has still been very much on display with this year’s team struggling to a 1-5 SU finish down the stretch. But the fact is I heard it suggested back before the SMU game that the bold switch to QB Grayson James was exactly the right thing for BC to do, and I did some homework before following along with that insight for 3 straight winning wagers, and here I’m definitely taking those points and riding that train for one more game.

Iowa State(+3') over Miami (1)
- - The Miami program must be feeling crushed after losing a 21-0 lead to Syracuse in their final game, and losing two of their last 3 games after a 9-0 start, to miss out on the CFP and land in the Pop-Tarts Bowl up the road in Orlando. I know Iowa State is feeling embarrassed about the flop they dropped in the Big XII Title game. I think I get the better defense, and a little better coaching, and more motivation, by taking the Cyclones as a live dog in a this spot that is often an ugly spot for a swaggering team like Miami.

Colorado(-3) over BYU (1*)
- - OK , clearly weird that two Big 12 teams are facing off and sharing the payout from this Bowl, but it’s a quirk of Colorado filling the contractual commitment for a Pac 12 team to appear in this game. And you always gotta remember the BYU squad is loaded with 24 year old men, married with children, when Bowl season rolls around, and players are receiving the red carpet treatment amidst facing other distractions. But with that out of the way, I think Colorado is looking like the right side for not suffering an ignominious defeat.

Iowa State/Miami(Ov60) (1*)
- - I do not think these teams chase each other to 40 points, but it makes sense there are the momentum swings that scoring produces. Or not.

North Carolina(-2) over Boston College (1*)
- - (1) I believe there is a talent gap between these teams. (2) With Bill Belichick around the facility as HC in waiting, there could well be a buttoned up sort of effort out of the Tar Heels today. (3) I have just never been impressed with the ability of Huskies HC Jim Mora to achieve significant glory by taking any of his teams to the next level . . . Those are the ANGLES I’m playing in this one; I think they are worth a play; I hope they get the cash.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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2024-2025 Bowl Season YTD: 12-7 (+4.30*)

Missouri(-2') over Iowa (1*)
- - "I'm still not seeing why I should be liking Iowa(+3) without Kaleb Johnson against a 9-3 SEC team that beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl last season." Go Hawks!

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Alabama(-16') over Michigan (1*)
- - For starters, with Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer and Michigan HC Sherrone Moore, I really believe DeBoer “can take his'n and beat your'n, and then he can turn around and take your'n and beat his'n.” . . . Now for this game, Michigan is without too many studs and high powered players to name that are the core of how they play games and try to win, while coming in high off a capstone win for the 2024 team . . . On the other side is an Alabama team that has been a way up and way down disappointment, but is coming into this contest pretty strong. But there is also the double whammy of much of the Alabama team surely remembering the OT loss to Michigan last year while on the cusp of possibly winning the National Championship, and the same damn thing also applies to first year coach DeBoer and at least four or five members of his coaching staff having the same memories coming from Washington. I sure as hell think there will be something motivating the Alabama side, and it all seems a bit one sided to me, so I’m tak’n his’n to be carry’n my cash.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oh My! Swing and miss badly on that Alabama wager. IMO my only terrible Bowl wager so far this season had been Colorado(-3) over BYU, but I had real doubts about that play, while I was feeling real good about the Alabama play. Shiiiit!

South Carolina(-8') over Illinois (1*)
- - The Gamecocks defense is a strong unit that can force mistakes by QB Luke Altmyer trying to do too much, like Illinois really needs him to do (Illinois is 113th in sack rate allowed). On the other side, young LaNorris Sellers has already shown himself to be an immensely talented mobile dual threat QB in some big games, who can likely put the Illinois defense on their heels. Just a bad matchup for Illinois IMO. I have to say the Illini overachieved some in 2024, while South Carolina looked awfully strong to close the season, and I’m expecting that HC Shane Beamer will have his troops motivated to finish strong for this season and start strong for next season, so I am willing to lay more than one score to back the Gamecocks in this matchup.

Baylor(-3)(-130) over LSU (1*)
- - Baylor also finished their season strong, and it sounds like much of the LSU squad has been gutted, especially by their studs in their areas of strength on offense, leaving QB Garrett Nussmeier and a defense that has proven to be less than stellar, to carry the load.. The betting line reflects the current state of affairs, and I’ll give the motivation edge to Baylor over the magic of Brian Kelley after another disappointing season.

Washington(-1') over Louisville (1*)
- - I knew Washington was a perfect 6-0 at home and a perfect 0-6 away from home. I did not know that Washington benched QB Will Rogers for Demond Williams, Jr.. After watching Washington play hard but often stupid for first year HC Jedd Fisch all season, I sort of don’t believe I’ve decided to wager on them overcoming their legacy of failure and win a big game away from home.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Texas(-13') over Arizona State (1*)
- - I have been really tempted to take a chance with ASU getting all those points, but Sark and Texas were my pick to win it all at the start of the year, and I really believe Texas has the horses and will be building on last week and will bring the goods back to Atlanta this time to end the storybook Arizona run in convincing fashion.
ASU on blast: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-arizona-state-confident-cfp-matchup-vs-texas

GL
 

rocky mountain

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Texas(-13') over Arizona State (1*)
- - I have been really tempted to take a chance with ASU getting all those points, but Sark and Texas were my pick to win it all at the start of the year, and I really believe Texas has the horses and will be building on last week and will bring the goods back to Atlanta this time to end the storybook Arizona run in convincing fashion.
ASU on blast: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-arizona-state-confident-cfp-matchup-vs-texas

GL
Cam Cam's voice is so deep it was resonating through my body.
 

lostinamerica

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Oregon(+3)(-130) over Ohio State (1*)
- - Forget about which marginal teams did the most squawking in recent years about some team being included or being left out of the CFP; I think 20 years from now we will still be talking about how Oregon is the team which was dealt the biggest shafting in CFP history. Their first reward is to face an opponent as a dog, and if they win they likely get to face Texas playing a home game in the Cotton Bowl. But they do get the Rose Bowl today, which is one hell of a cherished place to go about the business of making a statement. I’ll let Dan Lanning carry my cash as a live dog in this one.

GL
 
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