Dr Bob
I?ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points.
The math also projects just 63 ? total points and I?ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.
Arizona is playing this game in their home state but the Wildcats don?t have any other advantages and I?m not sure the proximity to home will be that much of an advantage given how Boise State?s fans tend to travel well for bowl games. The Broncos and their fans are excited about being the non-power conference team to get invited to a major bowl and I expect Boise to win this game straight up against an overrated Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. Arizona also beat Oregon in Eugene but that impressive win was one of just 2 really impressive games that the Wildcats played this season (the other being a 42-10 win at Utah). The rest of the year was pretty mediocre and the Cats? 10-3 record is due in large part to their good fortune in close games. The Wildcats are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less and they are more like an 8-5 or 7-6 team than a 10-3 team. That mediocrity shows in their stats, as Arizona only outgained their opponents by 7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. Arizona?s schedule was only 4.9 points tougher than an average FBS team and the Wildcats are only 5.4 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and only 7 points better than average overall (that includes special teams and projected turnovers). That rating is a few points lower than their rating based purely on points because their point margin was influenced by some turnover luck (+3 in defensive touchdowns off turnovers) and a Hail Mary pass to beat Cal (which I don?t include in my stats because I consider Hail Mary passes random).
Boise State is better than Arizona on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. The Broncos averaged 501 total yards and 6.7 yards per play this season while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Broncos are well balanced with Jay Ajayi (1689 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns) leading a ground attack that averages 237 yards and 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) while quarterback Grant Hedrick takes care of the aerial attack with 71% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The passing game is even better now that WR Dallas Burroughs no longer gets snaps and sophomore Thomas Sperbeck is a featured receiver. Burroughs averaged just 4.3 yards on the 28 passes directed at him in the first half of the season and a mid-season injury to senior WR Matt Miller was a blessing in disguise, as it put Sperbeck in the lineup. Sperbeck leads the Broncos in receiving yards despite not playing the first 4 games of the season and his 12.0 yards per pass thrown to him also leads the team. Boise?s pass attack has been 0.2 yppp better since week 5 when Sperbeck starting playing and Boise State?s offense currently rates at 1.0 yppl better than average, which gives the Broncos a big advantage over an Arizona defense that is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 513 yards at 6.4 yppl for Boise State in this game. Boise State has averaged 39.8 points per game on an average of 501 yards and they?re projected to score 35 points in this game.
Arizona?s offense tallies a lot of yards because they run a lot of plays but the Wildcats are just 0.1 yppl better than average, averaging a modest 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. I decided not to include the last two games since an injured foot hindered the mobility of quarterback Anu Solomon, which made him more prone to getting sacked (8 sacks the last two games) and kept him from running effectively. Solomon should be pretty close to 100% for this game but the Wildcats? are still just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively if I exclude those final two games. Boise State?s defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl) but that average was skewed by the 627 yards at 9.7 yppl in their game against the New Mexico triple-option. My model adjusts for outliers and Boise?s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after that adjustment. Boise also struggled defending the run against the Air Force option and while the Broncos were just barely better than average defending the run overall they were very good against the run when not facing a team that runs the triple-option. In those 11 games the Broncos allowed just 4.2 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team. Boise allowed less than 4.0 yprp in 7 of 11 games against non-option teams so their run defense is actually very good despite their overall mediocre numbers that were skewed by their two games against option offenses. That math projects 414 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona in this game, which equates to about 29 points after factoring in the Wildcats? 2.3 points advantage in special teams (projected turnovers are even).
Boise State has a projected advantage of 99 total yards at 0.9 yards per play and the Broncos appear to be the better team. I didn?t give any points to Arizona for playing in their home state since there isn?t any compelling evidence that playing in your home state (and not your actual home stadium) is an advantage. I?ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points. The math also projects just 63 ? total points and I?ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.
Maddux Sports
10* Mississippi +3.5
10* Boise St +4
Vegas Sharp
6 Unit Bowl Game of the Year
249 Mississippi +3.5 over TCU
Huge letdown disappointment spot here for TCU being cut out of the top 4. Ole Miss has an excellent defense with a month to prepare and the TCU offense has pretty much shown everything on their title run.
Oskeim Bowls
4* - Boise State +3
3* - Mississippi +4
Marc Lawrence phone plays
Boise
WAYNE ROOT
PERFECT PLAY--MISSISSIPPI STATE; Bowl Favorite of Year
On New Year?s Eve, the 7th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will tangle with the 12th ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Capitol One Orange Bowl. Mississippi State made great strides this season and spent a couple of weeks as the #1 team in the country. However, losses at Alabama and Ole Miss in their final three games took away their chance of competing in the inaugural College Football Playoffs. The Bulldogs are led on offense by junior QB Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for almost 3,000 yards and rushed for nearly 1,000 to go along with 37 total touchdowns. Junior RB Josh Robinson amassed 1128 rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns to compliment their offense. For Georgia Tech, they played their game against Florida St and came up short. Georgia Tech ranks 65th in total defense and allow an average of 25.1 points per game. Expect plenty of points and in this high scoring affair, the favorite will cover. TAKE MISS ST
Pinnacle--MISSISSIPPI; BOWL GAME OF YEAR
This year?s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl will feature and exciting matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and TCU Horned Frogs.
Ole Miss started the season 7-0 and looked poised to be one of the four playoff teams in College Football?s inaugural playoff. Unfortunately, three straight SEC losses at the hands of LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas derailed the Rebels chances. The play that defined the season for Ole Miss was when WR LaQuon Treadwell appeared to have scored the go ahead touchdown late against Auburn. However, replay determined that he fumbled the ball before crossing the goal line and was lost for the season with a leg injury on the play. For the season, Ole Miss ranks 31st in passing offense, 60th in rushing offense, and 57th in scoring offense. The TCU Horned Frogs were the darlings of college football in many ways this season. TCU featured a new and exciting spread attack on offense that resulted in lots of points. Junior QB Trevone Boykin leads the offense with 3714 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Boykin is a duel-threat QB that rushed for 642 yards and eight touchdowns as well. TCU was crowned co-champions of the Big 12 with Baylor, despite losing 61-58 to the Bears in the middle of the season. In the end, the playoff selection committee gave the nod to Ohio State over TCU and Baylor for the fourth and final playoff spot. Emotionally this will not bode well for TCU. Look for the Ole Miss defense to be able to stop TCU's offense. TAKE MISSISSIPPI.
The Gold Sheet
Tcu 29 - Mississippi 20
Boise State 32 - ARIZONA 31
Mississippi St. 30 - Georgia Tech 29
