Margarito/Mosley

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Romi

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Happy NYs Everybody. Here's to another great betting yr!!!

This has hardly been talked about but it's the biggest fight so far of the new year. I have a good BUNDLE on Margo in the -400 -450 range. His advantages are clear...he's bigger, stronger, taller, younger, along with reach and power advants. He's absolutely relentless and won't stop til the final bell. He's a bit crude in technique but I think his advants far outweigh his lack in that dept. Margo arguably has the best chin I've ever seen @147. Mosley is clearly the better skilled fighter and he's fought everybody worth note and then some. He's quicker and certainly more ring savy than Margo. His best days are behind him and he never had easy times with bigger fighters. At his prime best I think he'd still have problems with Margo. My biggest concern for Margo is that Mosley dropped his father and took on Hops trainer. If Mosley could employ a plan that Hop used on Pav then he could have a slight chance. The difference here is that I don't think Mos can change his style after a career of fights. He has NEVER turned down a fire fight and I think his warrior mentality will get the better of him and he can't win a shootout with the beast. I envision a similar fight like Cotto/Margo but I think Margo will get to the aging fighter sooner than he did against the stronger, younger Cotto. Mos can win a few of the early rds due to speed and skills but I see margo taking over by rd 6 and cruising to a late stoppage or clear pts victory. I've considered Margo itd but Mos is awfully tough to get out of there but I won't be shocked if he does. If Margo has a very good rd early on, this won't go the dst. After struggling with Mayo over 12 ( I had the fight close to even), I'll be more than shocked to see Mos pull off the upset.
 
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Ghost Kid

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Only question for me here is whether Shane can make it through or not....

He is one of the toughest SOBs alive....but the limit is fast approaching I am afraid....

late stoppage or clear dec. for Margarito I believe...a little worried for Shane in this one....
 
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frank s.

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Again, HBO prop Shane ahead first 3 rds. He will have to win rds early. Margo needs to buid up a head of steam, and he will. Margo inside has about a 60-70% chance to hit. If the usual Margo shows up, he wins hands down. By usual I mean the well prepared AM. Mosey was born ready as I think was Margo. I have Margo in my 4 teamer.
 

tonymontana

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Good to hear about the trainer change I'm glad to hear that mosley changed trainer,
I don't believe that Margo at -400 is the best choice.
Margo is a beatable fighter he can be outboxed.
I am on mosley straight and on Margo inside the distance at even money.
I expect livebetting to be an interesting option for this fight. I predict that Margo will be at even money at one point in the fight.
Before I forget it I want to wish everybody a happy new year and good luck with all your bets.
By the way this text was generated by a voice recognition software and it is functioning surprisingly well considering that my pronunciation of English is horrible.
The most difficult thing to pronounce for me is TH.
 

nj

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The problem with Mosley here is that he's not a traditional boxer. A guy like Vernon Forrest in his prime could beat someone slow and crude like Margarito, but Mosley doesn't have a stiff jab, he keeps his hands low, he gets into too many exchanges, and punches have little snap at this point. I agree, at some point Mosley will be too courageous for his own good. I don't think he'll quit or go down, but I can see him being retired by the corner.

I heard a rumor that Margarito was partying too hard after the Cotto win and is in bad shape coming into camp, that he may struggle with weight. I don't have a definitive source on it, but I also don't have a reason to doubt the person I heard it from. I know Margarito's trainer is a strict disciplinarian, but it wouldn't be the first time a fighter comes in flat after a major emotional win.

I don't see much value anywhere in this bout. Mosley ahead after 3 is THE bet of the fight imo, and as tony wisely mentioned, live betting could result in a strong Margarito bet after 4 or 5, maybe Margo -150. He will undoubtedly close the fight better than Mosley will. Mosley's problems are against height, jabs, and physical strength. Mayorga's footspeed and raw strength made Mosley uncomfortable, while tall boxers like Wright and Forrest could control the distance and jab him to death. Margarito has size and strength, but he doesn't have the speed of Mayorga, nor does he lead with a jab.

Again, I don't see much value here. If I do make a play it will probably be Margarito KO, and Margarito during live betting at reduced odds.
 
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frank s.

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Back to the original concept here. If Margarito comes in TOTALY prepared as he has always done he wins. Now I have no knowedge of any slacking off by him or any weight issues, but if he isn't climbing through he ropes with his "A" game, we may see something interesting. There probably aren't too many guys around right now who live as clean life as Shane Mosley. Never heard any dirt on this guy, nor have I about Margarito, until now.
 

Zerwas

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I was going to write that for some reason I dont believe that Margo will be champ for too long...I dont know...just a hunch probably...

I dont expect Margo to be quite as motivated for Mosley as he was for Cotto...he's coming off the biggest win of his career and Mosley is a fighter at this point that he is expected to beat convincingly...

I still believe that Margo will win this fight...either by late ko or decision...but I dont like the odds...

I expect Mosley to get off to a pretty good start...and I expect Margo to close the gap in the middle rounds and pull away in the later rounds...so Ledermans 3 round prop / live betting -as you said -or Margarito by late ko seem to be good choices bettingwise...
 

gardenweasel

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The problem with Mosley here is that he's not a traditional boxer. A guy like Vernon Forrest in his prime could beat someone slow and crude like Margarito, but Mosley doesn't have a stiff jab, he keeps his hands low, he gets into too many exchanges, and punches have little snap at this point. I agree, at some point Mosley will be too courageous for his own good. I don't think he'll quit or go down, but I can see him being retired by the corner.

I heard a rumor that Margarito was partying too hard after the Cotto win and is in bad shape coming into camp, that he may struggle with weight. I don't have a definitive source on it, but I also don't have a reason to doubt the person I heard it from. I know Margarito's trainer is a strict disciplinarian, but it wouldn't be the first time a fighter comes in flat after a major emotional win.

I don't see much value anywhere in this bout. Mosley ahead after 3 is THE bet of the fight imo, and as tony wisely mentioned, live betting could result in a strong Margarito bet after 4 or 5, maybe Margo -150. He will undoubtedly close the fight better than Mosley will. Mosley's problems are against height, jabs, and physical strength. Mayorga's footspeed and raw strength made Mosley uncomfortable, while tall boxers like Wright and Forrest could control the distance and jab him to death. Margarito has size and strength, but he doesn't have the speed of Mayorga, nor does he lead with a jab.

Again, I don't see much value here. If I do make a play it will probably be Margarito KO, and Margarito during live betting at reduced odds.

i agree with most of this.....in particular everybody`s notion thqat mosely is a "boxer".....maybe it`s the hand speed he used to possess....he never really used the jab all that much....

one thing that has always fooled me about mosely is his height...he just presents shorter than 5`9" in my mind`s eye....maybe that`s because he sort of fights "short(not utilizing his jab or using distance with the speed)...

i do think margarito is decent parlay material....mosely is 37 and, imo,i sense a little unsteadiness there from all the wars....

something about mosely that makes me think that the wars are starting to take their toll...
 
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Kramden

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Finally some boxing back on the board.

Shane will probably pull out all the stops for this fight and come in physically ready for the fight. That means (IMO) he'll use any "enhancements" that will help his cause. IMO he tried that with Cotto and it still didn't work. For Cotto, Mosley had a certain muscle density that he hadn't had since he beat Oscar in 2003. Against Collazo, Mosley didn't pull out all the stops for that one. Compare weigh-in pics between Collazo and Cotto. Anyway, this is a big one so Mosley will be "juiced" - IMO.

And you know what, it won't be enough. Margarito is going to walk him down and bang him out ala Kermit Cintron. Mosley will fight which will play into Margarito's hands, while Cotto used his excellent boxing skills for as long as he could against the TJ Tornado. Margarito will administer a brutal beatdown and be the first guy to stop Mosley. I'm looking for a 9th round stoppage.That all said, I think laying the wood on Margarito is a mistake, no one is worth that price - look for props - it will be a KO.
 
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nj

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Let me retract my comment about Margarito's weight problems. Yes there are rumors out there, but the source I was given is dodgy to say the least, and based on hearsay and speculation. As a betting man, I'm ignoring it, forget I mentioned it.
 

THE_THONG

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im gonna root for shane in this one

hopefully i can make the fight, it's only like 40mins away

good time to be in socal for the fight scene

arce/darchinyan 10mins away from me


oh yeah margarito cost me a lot of money in the williams fight!!!
 
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olddirtyfighter

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Let me retract my comment about Margarito's weight problems. Yes there are rumors out there, but the source I was given is dodgy to say the least, and based on hearsay and speculation. As a betting man, I'm ignoring it, forget I mentioned it.

Well Steve Kim mentioned that Margarito is walking as light heavyweight at the time fight with Shane was negotiated. He even quoted Margo's trainer as being little concerned.
Anyway, when I watched Shane's fight with Cotto, in the middle rounds I thought Cotto will stop him, but then he obviously got caught with something because he was in retreat for the last 3 rounds. In this fight Shane will not have power to bother iron chin of Margarito. Margarito will be to strong, to determined, to young and to big. Even if Shane tries to outbox him (which isn't his style) he is too old to do it more than 6 rounds.
Only question is will he last 12 rounds.
 

weepaul

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I think Shane is pretty much shot these day's and he is starting to sound a bit punchy.

The only problem I see for Margo in this fight is that Shane was a very good body puncher and Margo can be hurt to the body, NOT THE CHIN.
If Shane plans this fight around a body attack then who knows??
This is easier said than done as Cotto proved.
 

Romi

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I think Shane is pretty much shot these day's and he is starting to sound a bit punchy.

The only problem I see for Margo in this fight is that Shane was a very good body puncher and Margo can be hurt to the body, NOT THE CHIN.
If Shane plans this fight around a body attack then who knows??
This is easier said than done as Cotto proved.


Nice to see you chime in Weepaul. The key word the is WAS a very good body puncher. He hurt Oscar and slowed him down with some great left hks dwn stairs. He doesn't posess that snap anymore and he has even said that he can't stand in front of Margo. I think he'll need to employ a hit and hold type of strategy and make it an ugly fight. I can't see him moving for 12 rds and he certainly can't trade. Richardson certainly has my atention as I gave Hop hardly a chance against Pav. I think these are different animals here though. I think Kramden may be onto something with Mos coming in "juiced". I'm not looking for excuses in the event I lose the wager, but I can't see Mos winning any other way.
 

weepaul

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I just don't see how an over the hill Mosley beats a cyborg like Margo BUT

I thought Shane looked shot in the first Winky fight and then he came back and surprised the shit out of me with his effort in their second fight. He also surprised me in the Collazo fight.

When I have him dead and buried, he comes up with a strong performance.
THIS TIME, I believe Dracula gets his head cut off.
 

weepaul

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I could not resist- Shane ITD +1800.

I believe the only people who have a chance of beating Margarito are body punchers.
Shane WAS a great body puncher once upon a time.
 
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Ghost Kid

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Again, HBO prop Shane ahead first 3 rds. He will have to win rds early. Margo needs to buid up a head of steam, and he will. Margo inside has about a 60-70% chance to hit. If the usual Margo shows up, he wins hands down. By usual I mean the well prepared AM. Mosey was born ready as I think was Margo. I have Margo in my 4 teamer.

Frank this is a GOOD play for this fight. I think Margarito will win, but if Shane is going to look good at all it's going to be early...he's bound to snake one of these on Lederman's card.

This is a big fight, so this prop will be offered. I don't usually take these round plays, but your reasoning here is very solid.

:toast:
 

THE_THONG

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should be a good fight

shane was forged in the gym battling dudes like margarito

if anyone knows how to survive against the tijuana tornado, it's MR. JIN MOSLEY :mj07:
 
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