Recap: No buys yesterday.
Meant to get back in with the Milw Un play as I said I intended, but lost track of time. Realized it was about to start, saw the line was still up, placed a bet but fully expected to get the message, "Wager cancelled, game already started." Got it in just under the wire but I don't post if there's no time for anyone who might want to ride with me, so I didn't post an update here. Got a push at 227, and was lucky to get that.
A good day with the system plays posted here in case anyone was looking for opinion or stats to use for a play.
Q1 sides split, Temperature plays got a W on the side with Miami and a *Push on the Milw total, team totals both hit for a 4-1-1 day.
* I graded Mil a Push. The opening # was 216' and that's what I posted here in the morning, but the # quickly went to 217 and the board had 217 and 217' at game time. Anyone betting 217' Un got a win, but since the common # was 227, and since that's what I bought, I'll grade it a Push. I could mark it as a W, but if I pad my stats with wins based on always getting the best # then they are useless to me as I try to find systems that are profitable.
I expected a little rebuttal on my "Vegas Doesn't Fix Games" post yesterday.
Glad to see no one here believes that nonsense (though I'm not saying Vegas bookmakers are all honest, and are above cheating. I've personally witnessed one get the perp walk, escorted out of the casino by hotel security and Vegas Metro, and know of a few others. Stories for another time . . .)
For now, closure on the "Vegas Doesn't Fix Games" post. A final example.
Years ago, there was a power outage that caused a football game to be stopped early. Wisconsin was in town to play the Rebels, at Sam Boyd Stadium. According to NGC laws, a contest has to go X amount of minutes for it to be official, otherwise the game must be refunded.
The Badgers were leading 27-7, and covering the spread, when the game was called.
Bettors with their money on Wisconson were pissed, and rightfully so, when they tried to collect on their bet but were given a refund.
The NGC Rules are posted in every sportsbook, for all to see.
There was no disputing the game qualified as a cancelled wager due to the early stoppage, but many Wisconsin bettors from across the country posted nonsense about the Vegas books calling Sam Boyd and telling them to shut the power to avoid paying out Badger bettors.
Setting aside the common sense that should inform a normal thinking person that the guys who run the power grid aren't in cahoots with and at the beck and call of the sportsbooks, this flies in the face of basic math and finance, as I noted yesterday:
To say Vegas books fix games, shows a staggering ignorance of:
the typical handle at a sportsbook as a % of annual revenue at a casino/hotel,
and the fear these businesses have of the Nevada Gaming Commission.
And to that, I'll add one other common sense tidbit: the knuckleheads screaming "FIX!" had no idea how much money was wagered at each house, side and total. The line rose due to Wisconsin money coming in, but at my house we had a few large bets on UNLV, and stood to profit off the game.
So, when"Vegas fixes games" do we, the bookmakers, contact each other to see who needs which team to win?
What if I need Team A, and another book needs Team B, how do we decide which way to fix the game?
The very concept is ridiculous.
And, the Badger betters also had no idea how much money was taken on the total, and if the house needed the Under or Over. The game was a sure Under, and what if houses had more money bet on the Over than on the Badgers, and the books also lost money there?
The entire concept that Vegas books are in cahoots on fixing games is nonsense.
Whenever you hear this nonsense, consider the source - it's always a guy who is angry because he lost his bet.
Todays spots:
Q1 - Nothing qualifies.
Temperature plays: Utah/Den Un, Dal/LAC Un, LAC -7.
Let's look at those two spots.
Total in Den spot is at 220. Here are the totals from the first 4 games, at the end of regulation time (no OT):
256, 211, 229, 230. At 220, the Un would be 1-3.
Pretty much the same in Dal/LAC at 235: 242, 252, 241, 228. Again, the Un would be 1-3.
Reminds me of yesterday though, with the team totals on LA and Port. I posted:
"I like the record on the Team Total Over spot, but I don't like that both #'s on today's game are higher than either team has scored yet in the series."
That record was 24-16 on Overs.
Both LAL and Port had their highest scoring games of the post season and that record is now 26-16.
So, though I don't like the numbers, I'm thinking of playing the first spot today, Den/Utah Un.
I'll bank it if it wins/no play on the late game.
If it loses, I'll play the second game, thinking the play won't go 0-2.
But that's early thinking. I'll watch the lines and decide later. (I'm pretty good at judging when to buy football spots, early, or wait, and I include "When to buy" notices in my posts, but NBA is not my sport so it's guesswork for me here.)
The LAC-7 is the strongest play, %-wise based on records, so I'm pretty sure I'll ride that spot.
Back later with buys . . .
Update: Team totals: Utah Ov 111, Den Ov 108'
Conflict - Temperature play calls for Utah/Den Un (4-3 record) but team totals system says both teams go Over (26-16.) Yes, the team total spot has a better record but when there's a conflict like this I'd rather stay off and look elsewhere for a play.
And . . . the LAC play has jumped to -8, which means if I buy now I missed out on a better number.
Not sure what I'll do today. I'll be back if I have a buy recommendation.