Thanks, Coach.
Yes, we're all adults, we make our own decisions, but still, after giving out a play with a strong writeup like that Tor/Bos game, I feel like dropping in with an apology in case anyone read my analysis and bet it.
Here's some lousy news. The league announced yesterday that after reviewing the game, the refs blew the call on the final shot. A foul should have been called on Anunoby, sending Walker to the line for two free throws. If he makes either of the two, game over, no OT.
Thanks NBA, I feel so much better now knowing your screwup screwed me.
Oh well, "Spilled milk" and all that stuff . . .
Recap: I took the day off, no plays yesterday, still five games under .500, with a couple of games left in this round, plus the semi-finals and finals to get back in black. I need to get on a mini-run.
The system plays I posted yesterday both won.
The Temp play Over lost again, so the fade was a winner.
Record there is now 10-4** (** means two of the Losses were Wins at the end of regulation.)
And the new play "Bet Under When Both Teams Qualify as Overs in the Team Total system" won, so that one is 11-6** (13-4 when factoring in OT Losses.)
I think the Temp play is weak, and due to level off.
The sides on a Temp play are a true "temperature taking" of both teams, one is hot, the other is cold.
But the Ov/Un is a contrarian play.
When X % of factors on both teams say the game will go Under, I say it's time for the scales to balance out and go Over, so I chart and play it as an Over.
The reason the Over is failing miserably is that over the past 10 days or so the Ov/Un record in the playoffs is 4-17. And two of those Overs were Under at the end of regulation but went Over in OT.
Because of this, all the stats keep pointing to an Under, which leads to me charting it as an Over.
This bubble has to burst, it's just the natural order of things. The same six to eight teams are not going to keep playing to the Under, not to mention the books, who were inititally slow to react, are finally adjusting the #'s as the public is riding the trend and beating them.
All of this says proceed carefully when looking at Unders over the remaining games.
Today:
No Q1 plays.
Temp plays LAC -8 (Favs in this spot are 4-2) Bos /Tor Ov (fade it to Under at 10-4**.)
Here is an example of what what I said about the books adjusting the #'s:
Today's Tor/Bos game has a total of 204' at most houses.
Here are the other games in this series, starting with game one - 217', 218, 216', 215', 214, 209'.)
Today's 204' is 13-14 pts fewer than the first two games, and a full five pts fewer than last game.
Here are the six scores at the end of regulation: 206, 201, 207, 193, 200, 196.
Even with the lowered total, four of the six are Under today's # of 204'.
I'll update if I buy.
Update: Both team totals qualify as Overs in the Den/LAC game, full game Under in this spot is 11-6**.
No buys for me.
Yes, we're all adults, we make our own decisions, but still, after giving out a play with a strong writeup like that Tor/Bos game, I feel like dropping in with an apology in case anyone read my analysis and bet it.
Here's some lousy news. The league announced yesterday that after reviewing the game, the refs blew the call on the final shot. A foul should have been called on Anunoby, sending Walker to the line for two free throws. If he makes either of the two, game over, no OT.
Thanks NBA, I feel so much better now knowing your screwup screwed me.
Oh well, "Spilled milk" and all that stuff . . .
Recap: I took the day off, no plays yesterday, still five games under .500, with a couple of games left in this round, plus the semi-finals and finals to get back in black. I need to get on a mini-run.
The system plays I posted yesterday both won.
The Temp play Over lost again, so the fade was a winner.
Record there is now 10-4** (** means two of the Losses were Wins at the end of regulation.)
And the new play "Bet Under When Both Teams Qualify as Overs in the Team Total system" won, so that one is 11-6** (13-4 when factoring in OT Losses.)
I think the Temp play is weak, and due to level off.
The sides on a Temp play are a true "temperature taking" of both teams, one is hot, the other is cold.
But the Ov/Un is a contrarian play.
When X % of factors on both teams say the game will go Under, I say it's time for the scales to balance out and go Over, so I chart and play it as an Over.
The reason the Over is failing miserably is that over the past 10 days or so the Ov/Un record in the playoffs is 4-17. And two of those Overs were Under at the end of regulation but went Over in OT.
Because of this, all the stats keep pointing to an Under, which leads to me charting it as an Over.
This bubble has to burst, it's just the natural order of things. The same six to eight teams are not going to keep playing to the Under, not to mention the books, who were inititally slow to react, are finally adjusting the #'s as the public is riding the trend and beating them.
All of this says proceed carefully when looking at Unders over the remaining games.
Today:
No Q1 plays.
Temp plays LAC -8 (Favs in this spot are 4-2) Bos /Tor Ov (fade it to Under at 10-4**.)
Here is an example of what what I said about the books adjusting the #'s:
Today's Tor/Bos game has a total of 204' at most houses.
Here are the other games in this series, starting with game one - 217', 218, 216', 215', 214, 209'.)
Today's 204' is 13-14 pts fewer than the first two games, and a full five pts fewer than last game.
Here are the six scores at the end of regulation: 206, 201, 207, 193, 200, 196.
Even with the lowered total, four of the six are Under today's # of 204'.
I'll update if I buy.
Update: Both team totals qualify as Overs in the Den/LAC game, full game Under in this spot is 11-6**.
No buys for me.
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