NBA 2020 Playoff Plays

[RBD]

Glad to hear you had a profitable night, Lakerfan. And I wish you many more to come.

Recap: Hit both plays, Miami team total Over and full game Over in Mia/Milw. Record 18-17.

The team total analysis on Miami was probably the most tuned-in one I had all year.
In game one they hit FG's 46% and 38% on 3 PT'rs. Quarters of 29, 31, 32 and 23.
Nothing flashy, no freak high % or quarters, just steady efficiency.
The # that night was 109, they scored 115.

Last night setup the same way, I thought, and the books gifted us an extra point, making it 108 on the team total. So, I had to grab the Over again.
We got 45% on FG's and 37% on 3 PT'ers, only a 1% differential from game one.
We got a higher than normal 38 pt Q1 to start the game but the rest were as expected 28, 24, 26.
Total: 116 pts scored. Steady efficiency. I couldn't have scripted it any better.

And Milwaukee played as expected also, upping their score 10 pts from game one, making the game Over a winner, too.

If only they all looked that clear under the microscope . . .

Today's spots:

Q1 - No plays qualify

Temperature plays: Bos +2, Tor/Bos Ov

Tor/Bos is solid fade material, same spot as yesterday when it was 2-5, now 2-6 after Hou game stayed Under.

No buys yet.

First Update:
Bos qualifies as a team total Over play. Current # is 107'.
Game one they scored 112, game two 102. Tonight's # is their avg from the first two games.
Both games saw then shoot a little better than their season avg on 3 PT'ers, which is expected as Toronto is near the bottom of the league in defending against 3 Pt'ers. This #, 107', is tight, not sure what I'll do, if anything.

I also have a spot with a 6-11 record that I don't post here, says Den/LAC stays Under 223, may fade that and take the Over.

I'll stop back in if I make any buys.

 

[RBD]

I may lay off NBA tonight.
If I do a late buy I'll post it.
With football starting, I will transition away from NBA, don't have time to handicap too many sports.
Plus, I don't like a divided focus, I'd rather concentrate time and effort into a single sport.

 

[RBD]

Be a Better Bettor Newsletter Friday, September 4, 2020

HANDICAPPING YOURSELF

Though I had a few system plays to choose from, I didn't bet any NBA games last night.

Why?

Because of the Miami team total play from the previous night.

What does that have to do with last night's card?

From yesterday's post:
"Bos qualifies as a team total Over play. Current # is 107'.
This #, 107', is tight, not sure what I'll do, if anything."

All day long I ran numbers, and debated whether I should buy the spot or not.
Then, I compared that to my thoughts on the Miami bet from the night before - no hesitation, I could see a clear edge, I bet it with absolute confidence that it had a very high % of paying off.

I was struggling with the decision whether to pull the trigger on the Boston play, or to stay off it.
In other words, I would have been forcing the bet, if I made it.
In contrast to the Miami buy.
The comparison made it easy to make my decision.

When you're handicapping, DON'T just look at the two teams in the game, look at yourself, too.
What is your confidence level on the play?
How has your play been running, hot or cold?
How has life been treating you?
Did you get an unexpected expense, like a speeding ticket, or auto repair for example, that you have to pay?
Did you get an unexpected rebate check from your insurance company, or hit the Pick Three? (No, I don't play the lottery, biggest scam of all time, not to mention those fuckers already take enough of my money via taxes.)
Life matters, life-flow matters, bio-rhythm matters (No, I don't believe in bio-rhythm machines, I was joking.)
If you're forcing the bet, chances are you'd be better staying off.

Boston scored 103.
The wager I stayed off would have been a loser.

Just some things for bettors to think about . . .


Recap: No plays last night.

I'm within reach of Goal #2, end the season with ANY profit. I just need 2-3 more wins.
So I'm probably going to be very selective over these final weeks.

Plus, football has started and that will take up most of my handicapping time.
That's another reason I didn't bet NBA last night - with a football game on TV I had a choice as a viewer, and I chose to be called a racist who must repent for crimes I haven't commited by the announcers in a different sport. And they didn't disappoint (although the lecturing time is approximately 50% less than in an NBA telecast, thank God.)

Today's spots:

No Q1 spots again.

Temp plays: Mia +5' (Record on these is currently 9-4, Favs 4-2 Dogs 5-2)

I don't like the Miami spot.
I like the record, and it just hit last night with Bos, but something feels off about the # to me.
No, I'm not saying it's a "trap."
Despite what you have likely heard many times over the years about Vegas lines . . .
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP GAME!!!
Fact. Period. End of story.
(If anyone is interested I'll use that as a subject for a future Newsletter topic.)

Anyway, no football tonight, so I'm gonna buy something in the NBA. If I think it's worth sharing I'll post it.
I'll likely lay the heavy juice on LAL to win the series. No way the NBA is going to allow their head sjw cheerleader lebron to not make it to the next round - "production for use" (if anyone gets that reference.)
If you haven't seen it yet, check out the clip of him struggling to answer a basic question about the book he was "reading," The Autobiography of Macolm X." It's funny and informative.

Back with team total stuff if anything qualifies, I'd like to see an Under. They're rare, but have a better % than Overs, which are leveling at 35-25 (55%) after coming into the week at 30-19 (61%.)

Update:
Team totals: Mia Ov 109.
What to do here? System is leveling, as noted above.
But, I used Mia in this same spot in each of the first two games, so, ride it until it bucks ya, or time to jump off?
I'm still thinking.

Back with any buys if I have any.

Update:
I'm going to ride the Temp play, bought Miami +5.
Also, bought Mia first half Ov 54. I wanted to hit that full game total, but it would be the third time in a row I played it, don't want to push my luck. Looking at the previous games, I see Mia scored most of their points in the first half, both times. First half/second half looked like this: 60/55 in game one, 66/50 in game two.

Buys:
Mia +5
Mia first half team total Ov 54.

 

[RBD]

Recap: A split, hit with the system play on Miami + 5, missed with the non-system play Miami Ov 54 first half.

Got 29 pts in the first quarter, needed just 25 in the second to avoid an L, 26 for a W. The Heat average 28 per quarter for the season, a point or so higher in the playoffs. I liked my position, but too many missed shots, too many turnovers in the first six minutes of the second quarter and their number fell short at 50.

Yes, had I taken the system play on the team total full game Over rather than the first half, I would have had a winner, but no regrets. I like my 'capping on the first half and may come back to it in the next game. Record 19-18.

Both systems posted won, hope somebody used one of them.
The record on team total Overs is now 33-26, 56%.
The record on Temperature plays is now 6-2 on Dogs.

Today's spots: Got one Temp play, Tor/Bos Over. With a record of 2-7 these have been a solid fade.

Back with any possible team totals and buys if I have any.

Update: All four teams qualify as a team total Over play.
At first glance, I don't like any of them.
First, because it's in contrast to the Temperature play today, which calls for an Under and has a better record than team totals Over.
Second, because we had the same situation a couple days ago and all four teams stayed Under, and three of those teams are plays today: Bos, Tor, and Den.

I'll be back if I buy anything.

 

[RBD]

Recap: No plays yesterday.

A bit of regret for taking the day off in NBA and just watching football. The logbook records laid out a perfect blueprint for the early game. Both team totals called for an Over in a spot where recently both stayed Under, AND the Temperature play called for an Over in a great spot for a fade at 2-7.
I should have been all over the Under on either team total or the full game. Toronto stayed under by 6', Boston by 14', and the game by 22 pts.

Today's spots:
Got two Temperature plays, Mia -2, and Milw/Mia Ov.
Sides in this are 10-4, Favs 4-2, Dogs 6-2.
The record on Overs is now 2-8 after yesterday's game.

I'm in that unenviable spot of jumping on a trend after a couple wins that I didn't play using the Temp spots. I haven't faded those Overs and cashed on the Under the last three days now.
Jumping on today seems like asking for trouble.
Plus, I really wanted to play that Miami first-half team total Over again today, the play I just missed with two days ago. I don't want to take a team total Over in a game that I play Under, so I have a decision to make 'cuz I'm betting one of them.

I'll be back with team total stuff and a play.

Update: Three of four teams qualify as Over's:
Milw, Mia, Hou.
So, basically, I have the same situation as yesterday, both teams fit the team total Over system in the same game, and the game also qualifies as an Over in the Temperature system, which is a great fade.
I really do hate jumping on it after not using it yesterday.
Will be back with a play.

Also, note: Miami has gone from -2 to +1, the Underdog now. Record for this spot is 6-2, as noted above.

Update: I bought Mia +1'

Good luck to all of you today...

 

[RBD]

Recap: An ugly loss with Miami yesterday, not because it was close, lost by a point and a half, but because it never should have went to overtime. A missed free throw on Milwaukee's final possession of regulation screwed me, leaving the score tied after Miami missed their final shot. Back to .500 at 19-19.

Can't seem to get any separation from .500 this postseason. I keep going from one or two games under .500, to one or two games over .500. Plenty of time left to get on the plus side. Need to put a little streak together here.

Today's spots:
Q1 has a play for a change, Denver +3.
Home for the holiday weekend, left my logbook in my office, I'm going to have to sift through posts here to check the record on Q1 plays (I think Dogs have the better record?)

Also tried something new. Q1 plays are based on if there's a differential of 3 or > between the number I make and the number the books are offering. I never applied it to a full game. I did this morning. No real differentials in the Boston game, but I have a differential of 6.5 favoring the Clippers, with factoring in the -9, a differential of 7.5 on the total favoring it to go Over, and a differential of 7.2 saying Denver's team total stays Under 105'. I'm not sure what any of this means but I'm going to track it from now to the end of the season and see if I can find an edge.

No buys right now, going to look at a few more things and will be back with a pick or two.

Someone pointed out to me that when I do updates in the same post, people have to keep checking the thread to see if there's been one. I do it that way cuz I don't want to keep bumping my post to the top, but if it's easier I'll just do updates in a reply so people don't have to keep opening the same thread.

 

[53defense]

Recap: An ugly loss with Miami yesterday, not because it was close, lost by a point and a half, but because it never should have went to overtime. A missed free throw on Milwaukee's final possession of regulation screwed me, leaving the score tied after Miami missed their final shot. Back to .500 at 19-19.

Can't seem to get any separation from .500 this postseason. I keep going from one or two games under .500, to one or two games over .500. Plenty of time left to get on the plus side. Need to put a little streak together here.

Today's spots:
Q1 has a play for a change, Denver +3.
Home for the holiday weekend, left my logbook in my office, I'm going to have to sift through posts here to check the record on Q1 plays (I think Dogs have the better record?)

Also tried something new. Q1 plays are based on if there's a differential of 3 or > between the number I make and the number the books are offering. I never applied it to a full game. I did this morning. No real differentials in the Boston game, but I have a differential of 6.5 favoring the Clippers, with factoring in the -9, a differential of 7.5 on the total favoring it to go Over, and a differential of 7.2 saying Denver's team total stays Under 105'. I'm not sure what any of this means but I'm going to track it from now to the end of the season and see if I can find an edge.

No buys right now, going to look at a few more things and will be back with a pick or two.

Someone pointed out to me that when I do updates in the same post, people have to keep checking the thread to see if there's been one. I do it that way cuz I don't want to keep bumping my post to the top, but if it's easier I'll just do updates in a reply so people don't have to keep opening the same thread.

Well thats a good thing....people are interested in your process.....

You are an insightful kinda guy, with interesting takes on things..... why most visit this site in the first place...
Trying to cash tickets in an educated way.

In the end we all make our own salads...your posts just suggest throwin in a radish and some blood oranges..

Good for you Sir!

 

[RBD]

Ahh, a new neighbor stops by to say "hello."
Thanks for visiting, 53D.

No blood oranges or radishes for me, I try to avoid salads altogether. Yes, I know people say they're healthy for you, but I've noticed something over the years at the different places I've been at: in the lunch room, the people eating salads are all fat.
Coincidence, or, are the people who tell us that salads are good for losing weight really just skinny people playing a mean joke on overweight people?

I do make a mean homemade Caesars though, I have it at least once a week.

Finished work on team totals, and all four teams qualify as an Over. This is happening a lot (too much for my liking) during the playoffs. It seems the source I use for data in this system see's postseason bubble scoring the same as the elimination round.

So here's what I have to choose from today:

Q1 Den +3 (record on these is 24-13, Favs 5-1, Dogs 19-12.)

Temperature play Bos/Tor Over (record *3-8.)
* Win #3 was yesterday, but it was Under at the end of regulation. The record is technically 2-9 so it's still a good fade.)

Team totals: all four qualify as Over's.
I'm lost without my log book. For the last three days I've been using little scraps of paper to record charts and numbers on, and previous posts for updating record info. I will confirm all records when I get my log book back, right now I think team totals are 43-40, Overs 37-29, Unders 6-11.

I'll post a reply with whatever I buy.

 

[RBD]

Only buy I have is Clippers -8'.
Not a system play.

 

[RBD]

Be a Better Bettor Newsletter Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Note to self - Ignore the Systems at Your Own Peril!

Here are the system plays I posted yesterday:
Q1: Den +3 Winner
Temp spot: Bos/Tor Un (fade the Over at 3-8, 2-9 factoring in the OT game) Winner
Tm totals Over: Den Winner, LAC Loser (by 1 pt) Tor Loser, Bos Winner

Record: 4-2

My play? A non-system pick, LAC -8'.
Loser.
Back to one game under .500.

My handicapping is solid.

My game choices suck.

I hope someone ignored my superstition of jumping in on a play after not using it, re: fading the Temp spot when it calls for an Over. I first brought attention to this play a week ago, when it was at 2-4.
It's 3-9 now. And the lone win was a winner at the end of regulation, but lost in OT.

Same with the Q1 spot. After a solid record during the elimination round, I was looking forward to using it during the playoffs. Two weeks pass, not a single game qualifies.
I figure, "Watch, as soon as I get one, it'll lose." So, I didn't use it here, or in my pocket yesterday.
WRONG! It won.

My 'capping is solid, my picking sucks.
Time to use the systems a little bit more than I have been . . .

Today:
Q1 - No plays qualify
Temp spots: No plays qualify

Figures. I do the write-up saying I'm going to use the systems today. I set it aside.
I go do my 'capping for the day, and . . no systems in my top performers.

Back with team totals if anything qualifies.

Update: Three teams qualify for Overs: Mia, Milw, Hou. Record on these is 39-31.
Still profitable at 55%, but barely.
Milw has the highest differential (10.1) between the data source and the books, who are all at 107.'
I think the numbers goes up if it moves at all, so I bought it now.

Buys:
Milw team total Ov 107'

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD,

Have not checked in awhile....NBA has been killing me.... I seem to be on the wrong side of the half point every time. So been really watching my plays in the NBA. Amazing how the game have a total at 220.5 and it hits at 220 when I bet the over....like last night


Anyways like the play tonight....lets roll this thing

Coach

 

[RBD]

Coach, taking time off is the SMART thing to do if you're not "feeling" it.
That's when too many bettors press, double down, and . . . lose their bankroll.

I'm adding the full game Over 219.


Buys:
Milw team total Ov 107'
Mia/Milw Ov 219

 

[RBD]

Current score plus 2nd half line comes to 206, previous games in the series saw 219, 230, 215, and 214 (minus the OT.)
I'm going down with this game if I have to, but based on the #'s above . . .
Adding Ov 108 2nd half

 

[RBD]

Recap: The purpose of the morning recap is to keep accurate records, and learn what I can from both Wins and Losses. Hindsight often offers something of value that can be used in making future bets.
Unfortunately, I have nothing to learn from yesterday's 0-3 drubbing.
I liked my position:

A low team total, 107' on the highest-scoring team in the league, avg'ing 118 PPG.

An opponent surrendering 108 per game.

It was a play in a system hitting at 55%.

I had a team on the brink of elimination, ensuring a full-on all-out effort.

The star player was out, which is usually a good spot to bet into as the other players rally around him and play above expectations in the next game or two.

Needed just 27 pts per Q, got 28 in Q1, and then . . . the collapse, 18 and 19 in Q2 and Q3.

I knew I was dead in Q2, when they missed five straight shots.
Not five straight possessions. Five shots, one possession.
Shot, miss, offensive rebound then four more of the same. It was brutal.

So, I've dug a hole. It happens. NO ONE wins all the time.
Losing is part of sports betting.
How you proceed after a losing streak goes a long way to where you finish the season.

How to proceed? Here are the options a player faces.

Acceptable Options:

1 - Shut it down. No sense throwing good money after bad. If you have exhausted your bankroll do NOT re-up.
As Harry says, "A good man knows his limitations."

2 - Look at your play, identify where you're losing, see if you can eliminate anything that can stop the bleeding.
Continue playing, but with a more disciplined approach.

Unacceptable Options:

1 - Keep doing the same thing, hoping the pendulum swings back your way.
What's that old definition of insanity?

2 - Increase your unit size, or increase the number of games you bet.
This is a road often taken by players in this situation. And it usually leads straight to the Poor House.

3 - Pay a service.
This is the WORST option you could take. Don't do it.
I've met many of these guys, and believe me, from a handicapping point of view, they've got nothing on the average bettor. I'll go deeper on this topic at another time.

What will I do?

First - get an accurate accounting of where I am on the season, then set a few goals.
I'm now four games under .500. That's $440 for a $100 better.
BUT . . . I have juice from the other losses to factor in. At 19-23, I'm approx $630 in the hole.
Now that I know the actual number, I have to decide to cut and run, or play on.

The deciding factor will be - what, if anything, can I learn from my losses?

I did okay last week at 6-4 (in betting, my week starts Monday, ends Sunday, a hold over from early days of betting with the neighborhood bookie.) I was above .500, yet today I'm four games Under .500.
Looking at my losses over the past few days I see six have been from non-system plays.
SIX!!! I'm four games under .500 and SIX of my recent losses were non-system plays??!!
Eliminate them and I'd actually have a small profit on the season.

So, "Is there anything I can learn from my losses?"
The answer is YES.

It makes no sense to spend hours handicapping and use non-system games that are not part of the process AND at the same time not play the spots with the highest W %.

I'll keep playing. But I'll be more disciplined as I proceed over these final weeks.
Just as in real life, set goals. Do not make them unreachable, that only leads to frustration.
Make goals that are not too easy, but attainable.

My first goal is cut the deficit in half.
Next goal get back to .500.

NBA is not my sport. I have no systems that have proven profitable over the years, mainly because I'm not a fan, don't watch and don't bet on the sport. Since this is not my sport, and I'm four games under .500, I'll gladly settle for break even. I've had fun in my chess game against the books, I've made a few on-line pals here, and hopefully someone used the systems better than I have, and/or read something here they could use to their advantage moving forward in their own Battle with the Books.

Back with any plays, (SYSTEM plays only!)

 

[RBD]

One other note I think is important for newbies:
DON'T PRESS YOUR LUCK, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'RE HAVING BAD LUCK!

Example:
I was at 0-3 last night. There were three plays available in the team total Over spot to start the day.
Two were already in as losers, Houston was the only one left.
Normally I would say, "It's a stat with a winning record, the first two spots lost, odds are it won't lose 3 of 3, so bet the third one".
The third one was Houston Ov 109.

I thought of buying and posting it here. But experience tells me to shut it down after an 0-3 night.
I was kicking myself in the ass for not buying it when they put up 33 in Q1 and 33 in Q2 for a 64 pt first half.
But, my experience and strategy paid off as they put up 18 and 20 in Q3 and Q4, scoring 94 total.
And my 0-3 night did not become an 0-4 night.

Realize, and accept, that some nights no matter what you do, it's not going to work out for you.
That's just the way it is with sports betting.
Don't beat your head against the wall and throw good money after bad.
Take a deep breath, shut it down. And come back tomorrow.

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD

RBD

Great message.

I am one who chased last night....I had Rockets team total way over and was my play.... saw it was something in your numbers and liked it even more.


Followed the early game pics you had cause I like them as well.

Chased the last game and felt great about it....until the third quarter. Houston fell apart and so did my night.

I think the nuggets go over tonight it was low last night not sure what it is today I have not looked because I think its time for a. few days off....I said that before and was going to watch the games last night so ended up betting. Now I am on a 6 game losing streak....7 if you count the college football game I lost.

So I know better to look. But still like it.

 

[RBD]

I may join you in taking a night off, Coach. I have to be very selective over these next few weeks.

Today's spots:

Q1 Den +2' (25-13, Favs 5-1, Dogs 20-12)

Temp spots: Tor/Bos Ov (Ov 3-9, this is a fade spot), Den +8.

Team totals have leveled out, not worth posting anymore. I'll still chart them in my logbook, in case a rare play on an Under pops up (these still have a record worth playing.)

I said I will stick to system plays, I didn't say I'll play all of them.

Problem with the Q1 spot is I just stayed off it two nights back and it won.
I hate jumping on a game after I stayed off it and missed a winner.

The Temp Over is a great fade at 9-3, but all five games in this series have stayed Under.
The total on this one is 7 pts fewer than the avg of those games (217', 218, 216', 215', 214.)
All of those stayed Under this #, too, but again, with five straight Unders I don't feel like jumping on one now.

The Temp side play is an 8 pt Dog, record on these is 6-3.
This #, +8, would have only covered one of the three games played in this series.
It would not have covered their lone game in the elimination round either.
I used LAC last game, and they screwed me by not covering by 2'.
Not anxious to flip and play the other side, and have LAC screw me again by covering this time.

Unless something changes in my confidence on any of these, no plays for me today.

 

[RBD]

Again, all four team totals qualify as Overs tonight.
I checked my logbook - when both team totals are Overs in the same game,
the full game record on the total is 5 Over, 9 Under.
That says 64% of the time the game stays Under.

Fading the Temp play Over system is 9-3, with one of the three losses coming in OT, so technically 10-2.
That's a 75% stat to the Under at 9-3, and 83% at 10-2.

I can't not buy this spot at numbers like those.
I bought Under 209'.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Had three system plays.

My gut instinct said don't buy the Den +2' Q1 spot because it won two nights ago and I didn't buy it.
My instinct was right, they lost Q1 21-12.
And I saved 1.1 units by not betting it.

Gut instinct said don't buy Den +8' because I played LAC -9 last game and it lost. Don't flip to the other side and watch LAL cover this time and screw you again. Instinct was correct, Den lost by 11 pts.
I saved 2.2 units now.

Gut instinct said don't buy the Temp spot and fade the Over in Tor/Bos.
But then I ran the #'s for the team totals and saw that all four teams qualified for an Over last night.
And I thought, "When both teams are an Over in this system, does the full game go Over?"
I saw a record of 5 Overs, 9 Unders. That's a 64% play to the Under.
The Temp play is a 75% fade. Like I said, "How do I NOT play #'s like those?"
I went with the math and numbers instead of my gut instinct.
And I will every time I have #'s like those.

I nailed that Under 109', the game ended in regulation a full 13' pts Under the line.
But, overtime. FIVE games under .500 now. Ugh.
But no regrets, it was a good 'cap on the game.

Only mistake I made on the night was not betting the LAC game Under.
It didn't qualify as a Temp play to fade, but both teams were Overs in the team total system.
And I had just discovered that is a solid 64% play to the Under.
I was so caught up in yelling at my TV for Tor & Bos to get off a tied score so it didn't go to OT I lost track of time and the LAC game started before I could get a bet in. I wouldn't have posted it as a buy, not after the OT loss I gave out, but would have definitely had it in my pocket as a buy, especially after it techinically won again in Tor/Bos.
And LAC stayed Under by a whopping 40 pts.

The good news is that I have one more play to use: When both teams qualify as team total Over in the same game, the record is 10-6*, 62%, when you play the Under. (* means one of the losses was in OT, so the record is technically 11-5, 68%.)

I'll update here if there are any systems active in tonight's game.
If I do a buy, I'll post it in a reply.
My apologies to anyone who followed me last night . . .

Update: Both teams qualify as Overs in the team total system.
As noted above, this is a really good % for the Under, at 62% (or 68% minus the OT loss.)
I'd buy the Under, but after last night's bad beat, which followed the 0-3 Tuesday, I have to take a night off.
I posted this for record keeping and in case anyone is looking for an angle on the game.

Update #2: I just noticed in my logbook from 'capping earlier today, no Q1 plays, but tonight's game fits the parameters for an Over in the Temp play, a solid fade at 9-4**(**means two of the games went Over in OT, so technically the record is 11-2.)
This means it's the exact spot as last night's Tor/Bos game, it's in both the Temp play fade spot and the "Under when both team totals are Overs in the team total" system.
This makes it even more difficult to take a needed night off.

 

[Coach Woody]

No aplogizing needed..... I was yelling at my TV also for that shot to go in. Thought it might.

Roll them back today

NUGGETS are done....they other than Joker and Porter look like they have quit.