NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting

[VegasAce21]

ATL 14-19 at home, DAL 13-22 away...wow its REALLY quiet in here...o, wait its 245am no wonder, haha jk. im out guys hope this all helps in the am...mornin to ya ill check in b4 i head to work.

 

[VegasAce21]

dammit..last one...saw this on another site..query...

season=2008 and rest>=1 and o:rest=0 and team=Cavaliers and H

the 6 games listed went 1-4-1 O/U and 5-0-1 ATS for CLE at tonites game at CLE -9 185.5..CLE is banged up alot since these games so who knows...

 

[JCWhy]

After my first look at these games I'm leaning Mavs/Hawks under and Blazers/Cavs over. I got to do more work but these are my initial leans.

 

[axp59]

not to bad hes up but picks r here is 5 for 5 on the night hes on fire

I heard Joe took a beating last night...Damn, that's the last thing I wanted to hear. That guy has so many people just blindly tailing him I bet he got beat up twice. It's a damn thankless service he provides those people. They collect on his plays and not say a word but when he has a night like last night...everything is his fault. I wouldn't be surprised if yet again, they lose another quality capper. Why are some people so evil? :shrug:

 

[axp59]

I can certainly see why the GS/LAL total is at 233. The 3 times they met this season, the avg number is 224 with the over being 2-1 and covering by 13.5

GS this season when total is 230+ O/U 3-1 avg number around where it's at now about 235 and over covers by 18. Only thing though, that one lone under was on the road and they're on the road tonight.

When GS is a road dog by 13+ the O/U is 2-0-1 but the avg number here is only 218 and the over covers by 9. add that up and that's below the current.

I'm going to peek at the others

 

[axp59]

* Under is 8-1 in DAL last 9 games as an underdog.
* Under is 8-2 in DAL last 10 road games.
# Under is 7-1 in ATL last 8 home games.

This certainly has some potential and requires a little diggin!

 

[axp59]

Gentleman...lets get em back Thursday!!...see this interesting article and comment from Dirk about pace of play vs Hawks, etc....

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon.../mavs/stories/031909dnspomavscap.3e60ac7.html

I try to help out best i can guys but work too damn much. need to make the $$ here so as i dont have to....

Nice catch Ace. SLOW IT DOWN...

 

[axp59]

From that article:

The Hawks are more athletic than the Mavericks, meaning "you don't want to get into a complete up-and-down running game with them," Dirk Nowitzki said. "That's why we have Jason Kidd. He knows how to control the pace."

You leaning on the under too, VegasAce?

PnP curious if you're setting buy-in numbers and what it may be for this game for you.

 

[axp59]

run these queries when u see em Ax (n whomever else)....

team=Mavericks and site=away and date>20090201

AND

team=Hawks and site=home and date>20090201

Dallas REALLY seems to play to pace of their counterpart...3 outta L4 high scores but vs teams that dont play D. Same 4 ATL...3 outta 10 went over tonites number but were shitty teams that dont play D.

Ace, you're all over this game pal!!! I love these numbers and the trending is very current.

 

[easterntimezone]

I can certainly see why the GS/LAL total is at 233. The 3 times they met this season, the avg number is 224 with the over being 2-1 and covering by 13.5

GS this season when total is 230+ O/U 3-1 avg number around where it's at now about 235 and over covers by 18. Only thing though, that one lone under was on the road and they're on the road tonight.

When GS is a road dog by 13+ the O/U is 2-0-1 but the avg number here is only 218 and the over covers by 9. add that up and that's below the current.

I'm going to peek at the others

Ax -

This likely will be one of the rare occasions that the Lakers cover that huge spread going away; right after the following article, they went ahead and squandered the double digit lead they held over the 76ers, going on to lose that game -

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-lakers-fyi17-2009mar17,0,3940164.story

Anticipate that they're in a contrite mood towards Jackson, looking to make amends for their statements of folly by giving no quarter to the Warriors; that in concert w/ Nelson's bewildering "rest" patterns (Crawford sits tonight from reports - and Biedrins still has ankle concerns) doesn't bode well for Golden State.

 

[axp59]

After my first look at these games I'm leaning Mavs/Hawks under and Blazers/Cavs over. I got to do more work but these are my initial leans.

Sitting in the same exact spot with ya JCW!

 

[JCWhy]

I am going to stay away from the Cavs game. One thing that stands out to me is the Cavs have only gone Over 8 out of 24 games in the second half of the season and my numbers point ot the over. No Play for me.
I am starting to like the Warriors/Lakers game. My number is 226 and I can see the Lakers playing some defense tonight. I have to look into it before I make a decision but I just have a gut feeling on this one. :scared

 

[axp59]

Ax -

This likely will be one of the rare occasions that the Lakers cover that huge spread going away; right after the following article, they went ahead and squandered the double digit lead they held over the 76ers, going on to lose that game -

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-lakers-fyi17-2009mar17,0,3940164.story

Anticipate that they're in a contrite mood towards Jackson, looking to make amends for their statements of folly by giving no quarter to the Warriors; that in concert w/ Nelson's bewildering "rest" patterns (Crawford sits tonight from reports - and Biedrins still has ankle concerns) doesn't bode well for Golden State.

I do agree with you ETZ. Lakers side gets the nod for situational. The initial stats I ran with some mathematical modeling also point to LAL as being the correct side. Couple that with some overnight Accuscore Slice sent me (also pointing to LAL)...this is shaping up to be a nice looking play.

now some trending...LAL 10-0 SU but only 4-6 ATS when playing a poor team (<.400) at home this season. Avg line -15 and they miss the cover by 2.5. GS on the other hand is neutral going 3-3 ATS when playing an elite team (.700+) on the road this season. We should note though that the last 3 in this spot for GS, 0-3 ATS

I think we have a viable candidate for side action.

 

[axp59]

I am going to stay away from the Cavs game. One thing that stands out to me is the Cavs have only gone Over 8 out of 24 games in the second half of the season and my numbers point ot the over. No Play for me.
I am starting to like the Warriors/Lakers game. My number is 226 and I can see the Lakers playing some defense tonight. I have to look into it before I make a decision but I just have a gut feeling on this one. :scared

I'll throw out some neutral content when I find something on these games.

 

[JCWhy]

I am just happy that there are totals that we can even discuss on a thursday. The numbers are usually so tight that I just take the day off but today my numbers had all 3 as possible plays.

 

[granpa]

I heard Joe took a beating last night...Damn, that's the last thing I wanted to hear. That guy has so many people just blindly tailing him I bet he got beat up twice. It's a damn thankless service he provides those people. They collect on his plays and not say a word but when he has a night like last night...everything is his fault. I wouldn't be surprised if yet again, they lose another quality capper. Why are some people so evil? :shrug:

Morning Ax.

Myself and several others tailed Joe's picks last night and although he/we didn't do well there was no back lash. The thread was quite calm with no rants, etc. I lost a bit, but as we both know, you're not going to kill the books every night. He seems to be gaining a loyal following, just hope it stays that way. Joe's definitely a class act, just like yourself, who wants to help people, have fun and make a few bucks.

Joe did give you props (didn't name you of course) for your Sac/Char U call.

Hope you have a profitable day.

Granpa

 

[JCWhy]

Well I am off to open up my store. I have to get some work done there before I watch ball all day!

 

[axp59]

I am just happy that there are totals that we can even discuss on a thursday. The numbers are usually so tight that I just take the day off but today my numbers had all 3 as possible plays.

JCW, I'd like to add that Accuscore data points to all 3 gong under today. They were pretty close with their totals predictions last night..I think they missed 2 going into the late games.

 

[granpa]

JCW, I'd like to add that Accuscore data points to all 3 gong under today. They were pretty close with their totals predictions last night..I think they missed 2 going into the late games.

Ax, Sorry to say I'm not familiar with the Accuscore figures you have referred to a few times. Mind telling me where you obtain this info?

Thx, G

 

[axp59]

Morning Ax.

Myself and several others tailed Joe's picks last night and although he/we didn't do well there was no back lash. The thread was quite calm with no rants, etc. I lost a bit, but as we both know, you're not going to kill the books every night. He seems to be gaining a loyal following, just hope it stays that way. Joe's definitely a class act, just like yourself, who wants to help people, have fun and make a few bucks.

Joe did give you props (didn't name you of course) for your Sac/Char U call.

Hope you have a profitable day.

Granpa

That's great news!!! I respect him and his skills. I emailed him just to show my support. He's going to bounce right back with a hell of a first day at the dance!