NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Ax, Sorry to say I'm not familiar with the Accuscore figures you have referred to a few times. Mind telling me where you obtain this info?

Thx, G

When Slice gets in, he's a better person to ask but from what I gather, it's a simulations run 10,000(?) times and predicts an outcome from those sims. I guess it's a paid service and he gets the reports. He's kind enough to send me a copy for review. It's good stuff. I just wished I could have started the season with it so I could track the numbers myself. The full report has some tracking but it would take some time for me to wrap my head around the whole thing and be comfortable with it. For now, I just look at the sim numbers to get an idea of how it thinks the game will turn...

 

[granpa]

I'm sure he will and I'll be checking out what he has for today.

 

[granpa]

When Slice gets in, he's a better person to ask but from what I gather, it's a simulations run 10,000(?) times and predicts an outcome from those sims. I guess it's a paid service and he gets the reports. He's kind enough to send me a copy for review. It's good stuff. I just wished I could have started the season with it so I could track the numbers myself. The full report has some tracking but it would take some time for me to wrap my head around the whole thing and be comfortable with it. For now, I just look at the sim numbers to get an idea of how it thinks the game will turn...

Thanks. Definitely would like to know more about it to see if it's worth obtaining for next season.

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Good Morning Ax,

Nice to see this great group of people working on these lines, already.

Took a peak at the NBA and CBB cards. My goodness, so much action on the CBB morning games.




look what I found...lol --------> moon1

 

[axp59]

look what I found...lol --------> moon1

Oh my...that just ain't right...

I locked BYU -3 over A&M...I don't know, I just think they run away with this one.

Back to the NBA though...I'm still crunching some numbers. I'm leaning on LAL side. Good team with something to prove and bad team there for it to happen.

 

[Slicer]

I'll update these around 6pm tonight since most of these games are late but here is current situation:

LAL predicted by 17 and 230.2 total
ATL predicted by 2.2 and 193 total
Cleveland predicted by 9.5 and 181.7 total


Accuscore runs 10,000 simulations of every play during the game and comes up with averages. While the system is not flawless it has it's days both good and bad. I've been tracking it over the past month via paid subscription for NBA/NCAA. Interesting trends do develop when you break the plays out by scoring differentials from vegas lines.

I take the accuscore and measure against the vegas spread to get a differential # and use it to narrow my focus on capping those games. Using the accuscore as a whole metric is about 50%, but breaking it down amongst the differential ranges of numbers like < 1.0, 1.1-2.0, 2.1-2.9, more accurate #'s come about, not only in terms of strong plays but also fading the system.

For example currently: Dogs with a 4.0 differential from vegas line are 7-1. Dogs with a 2.1-2.9 differential are 8-16-1.

I used it for conference play in the NCAA's and I'm using it again for post season neutral court play as well, so far it is 9-7 on NIT Sides, 12-4 on NIT O/U, 4-3 CIT Sides, 4-3 CIT O/U, 3-5 CIB Sides, and 2-6 CIB O/U's.

 

[Slicer]

Here is the link to the NCAA Tourney Thursday spreadsheet I set up in Goggle docs, again this is just my use to help determine plays, normal handicapping goes in behind these I dont play it solely based on these, and sometimes my capping points to the opposite of it, just helps me look for value.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO5FQaf7haZKeU2N4p05-IQ&hl=en

BTW, the spreadsheet is interactive so if you change the ATS Line and O/U for your sportbook it will give you different differential #'s.

A negative on the ATS would indicate DOG, A negative on the O/U would indicate playing OVER the total.

 

[burnetto57]

Hey Ax,
Have not found any meaningful Discussion on either Forum - lotta 'picks' - I may want to get what slice has: is it StatFox or somethin else

 

[Slicer]

Hey Ax,
Have not found any meaningful Discussion on either Forum - lotta 'picks' - I may want to get what slice has: is it StatFox or somethin else

www.accuscore.com

I have the Accuscore PLUS, then created my own spreadsheet to help do the calculations, I'll be glad to send anyone a copy of the spreadsheet if they wish in Vista or 97-03 format so you can continue on your own if you wish.

 

[axp59]

Thanks for the link Slice...I'm going to check out my BYU play

 

[axp59]

KB....

KB....

KB,


You got my email response on your capping notes right??

 

[Ools]

Some march madness trends

Some march madness trends

Here are some quick round 1 trends with historical positve % (most are either 11 yr or 5 yr trends - in a hurry so can't differentiate):

7 over 10: 75%
under when line is 15-19.5: 70%
under when line is und 120: 81%
under in 15 vs 2: 70%
under 3 vs 14: 65%
spread of 6.5 - 9 covered: 65%
overs when spread of 0-3: 61%
0-3 spread covered: 60%
15 over 2: 61%
overs if 140 or higher: 60%
Big 10 covers: 64%
A10 not to cover: 64%

This is all i saw over 60%.

 

[axp59]

0-3 spread covered: 60%

This and Slice's sheet, looks like my play is good.

Thanks Ools

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

www.accuscore.com

I have the Accuscore PLUS, then created my own spreadsheet to help do the calculations, I'll be glad to send anyone a copy of the spreadsheet if they wish in Vista or 97-03 format so you can continue on your own if you wish.

Yes, please - not sure Vista v. 97-03 - mbe start w/ vista : EMail is(do not post email addresses on the forum: admin )

 

[burnetto57]

Stas from Yosemitesam?

Memph: 11-2 L13 Vs. teams w/ w rec; 5-0 vs non conf; UCSN poor 'D' Away( I am going w/ them 1H and Game and under - think it'll be blow-out - 1H in 2 top 20 teams earl in season UCSN was blown out by well more than 20 (OK and G'town) course they've had all season to get better - but a mediocre team even in own conf.

Tx A&M 10-1 ATS L 11 Neutral as Dog; BYU 1-7 L8 folowing SU loss ( of late A&M's Off better than BYU's)

Butler 21-5 ATS L25 as Dog; 15-1 L16 as Dog (believed missed ATS by hook LY v. G.Town ( the good G.T)

 

[burnetto57]

Thanks slicer - have to ask silly quest. how accurate has this been w/ NCAAB and past Tourney's if u know - noticed a lot of Unders which is encouraging

 

[axp59]

S
Tx A&M 10-1 ATS L 11 Neutral as Dog; BYU 1-7 L8 folowing SU loss ( of late A&M's Off better than BYU's)

This certainly doesn't look encouraging for my play. I wonder how much of a dog when compiling this 10-1 ATS number... They're only 3 point dogs today.

 

[JCWhy]

I think I'm goin to lock in on the Mavs/Hawks under soon.

In CBB I got Memphis -19.5(locked in yesterday) for the noon games and Purdue -8.5(1/2 unit hoping for the hook with the other half). I love this first weekend of the tourney.

Disclaimer: I am only 52% on the year in CBB

 

[Slicer]

Thanks slicer - have to ask silly quest. how accurate has this been w/ NCAAB and past Tourney's if u know - noticed a lot of Unders which is encouraging

I have no historical info on it burn, and if you want me to send the spreadsheet via email, just pm me your addy.

 

[Slicer]

Here is what I took for the tourney early:

LSU -2 $100
LSU Over 127 $200
Memphis -21 $400