NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting

[JCWhy]

I see the trends above are over the past years. How much stock, if any, do you guys put into that when making your CBB plays?

 

[axp59]

I think I'm goin to lock in on the Mavs/Hawks under soon.

In CBB I got Memphis -19.5(locked in yesterday) for the noon games and Purdue -8.5(1/2 unit hoping for the hook with the other half). I love this first weekend of the tourney.

Disclaimer: I am only 52% on the year in CBB

GL JCW

 

[granpa]

Here is the link to the NCAA Tourney Thursday spreadsheet I set up in Goggle docs, again this is just my use to help determine plays, normal handicapping goes in behind these I dont play it solely based on these, and sometimes my capping points to the opposite of it, just helps me look for value.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO5FQaf7haZKeU2N4p05-IQ&hl=en

BTW, the spreadsheet is interactive so if you change the ATS Line and O/U for your sportbook it will give you different differential #'s.

A negative on the ATS would indicate DOG, A negative on the O/U would indicate playing OVER the total.

Slice, thanks for the link to your sheet. I created a free account at Accuscore to check it out. Have you found it to be as useful as their testimonials state?

Thx, G

 

[Slicer]

Slice, thanks for the link to your sheet. I created a free account at Accuscore to check it out. Have you found it to be as useful as their testimonials state?

Thx, G

I've made more money from it than the cost of the Accuscore Plus subscription which i think is around 100/year?

I wish I still got the Daily Line Reports but they are part of the Winner's Edge package and Im not spending 400 on something like that. For a $100 a year though I'll take the simulations and monitor the records myself through the spreadsheet, plus it'll be interesting come baseball season to see how they do. You can find a historical report on the daily line reports download, think they update it 1 time a month for public view.

 

[JBrilman]

www.accuscore.com

I have the Accuscore PLUS, then created my own spreadsheet to help do the calculations, I'll be glad to send anyone a copy of the spreadsheet if they wish in Vista or 97-03 format so you can continue on your own if you wish.

please email me the spreadsheet in 97-03

do not post email addresses on the forum: admin

Thanks

 

[JCWhy]

Lakers/Warriors has already dropped 2 points this morning:shrug:

 

[Slicer]

I see the trends above are over the past years. How much stock, if any, do you guys put into that when making your CBB plays?

I dont put any stock into trends in CBB except current year trends.

For NBA I will consider going back 1 year, typically roster adjustments on NBA teams aren't as drastic as college roster adjustments.

 

[axp59]

Lakers/Warriors has already dropped 2 points this morning:shrug:

I see the side holding steady...went up for a short time but back down to 13

 

[easterntimezone]

Hope that Maryland is a live dog - haven't really paid much attention to college basketball this year other than to see the dwindling fortunes of my alma mater. As much as it pains me to lean towards a local rival in the Terrapins, Vasquez is legit and that team is as scrappy as they come; maybe not extremely talented, but definitely resilient.

Not terribly confident in the Illini's chances today against Western Kentucky - Weber hasn't really endeared himself to people in Champaign as he did when w/ Southern Illinois.

And looking for Clemson to take out a Michigan team that's on the upswing, but maybe just happy to receive an invite.

Slicer - would appreciate a copy of your spreadsheet in 97-03 format if/when it's convenient; thanks - (GMAIL account).

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

I have no historical info on it burn, and if you want me to send the spreadsheet via email, just pm me your addy.

THX - was still groogy - didn't see your link - got it thanks

 

[JBrilman]

Ax,

Sorry I didnt respond yesterday. I already locked in Sac at 201 so hearing Nocioni and Kmart were out I thought was a wash.

1-1 for the day. Lets cash today.

I see the situational play for the Lakers as being a FACTOR but at Home here are some compelling numbers when the lake show is favored by 10+ and a big total.

team=Lakers and p:site=home and p:line<=-10 and p:total>=210 and 20081030<=date

or

team=Lakers and p:site=home and 1=p:rest and p:line<=-10 and 20081030<=date

or

team=Lakers and p:site=home and 1=p:rest and p:line<=-10 and p:total>=210 and 20081030<=date

TOUGH FOR ME TO GET ON A SIDE OF -13 AFTER READING THESE QUERYS AND AN UNDER WITH THE WARRIORS INVOLVED....

AX????

 

[JCWhy]

I dont put any stock into trends in CBB except current year trends.

For NBA I will consider going back 1 year, typically roster adjustments on NBA teams aren't as drastic as college roster adjustments.

That's how I do it in college as well.

NBA it depends on how many changes there have been to the team if I look at the previous season. Nice to see that we are on the same page.:toast:

 

[Griffin8s]

Sorry I don't have much time to catch up on everything post today right now.

Just looking over the Cavs game. I don't like the side play after looking over Cavs last few games. Haven't beat anyone by 10 since the Heat on the 7th of this month. Yes I know you will say they been on the road but still seems to me this time of the year Cavs start to play down to their opp. Which may not be bad for the under play if Cavs just D it up and then just stay ahead for the win. Just seeing it as a tough game to call right now want to dig alittle more.

 

[granpa]

I've made more money from it than the cost of the Accuscore Plus subscription which i think is around 100/year?

I wish I still got the Daily Line Reports but they are part of the Winner's Edge package and Im not spending 400 on something like that. For a $100 a year though I'll take the simulations and monitor the records myself through the spreadsheet, plus it'll be interesting come baseball season to see how they do. You can find a historical report on the daily line reports download, think they update it 1 time a month for public view.

Thanks Slice, that's good to know. Just may pony up the $100 and get on board.

 

[axp59]

Ax,

Sorry I didnt respond yesterday. I already locked in Sac at 201 so hearing Nocioni and Kmart were out I thought was a wash.

1-1 for the day. Lets cash today.

I see the situational play for the Lakers as being a FACTOR but at Home here are some compelling numbers when the lake show is favored by 10+ and a big total.

team=Lakers and p:site=home and p:line<=-10 and p:total>=210 and 20081030<=date

or

team=Lakers and p:site=home and 1=p:rest and p:line<=-10 and 20081030<=date

or

team=Lakers and p:site=home and 1=p:rest and p:line<=-10 and p:total>=210 and 20081030<=date

TOUGH FOR ME TO GET ON A SIDE OF -13 AFTER READING THESE QUERYS AND AN UNDER WITH THE WARRIORS INVOLVED....

AX????

Jus....

I just noticed something very ODD with your query...you do realize you're running trends with "p" meaning for previous game situations. I noticed right away when the game tonight didn't qualify for any of the queries. :scared

 

[axp59]

Sorry I don't have much time to catch up on everything post today right now.

Just looking over the Cavs game. I don't like the side play after looking over Cavs last few games. Haven't beat anyone by 10 since the Heat on the 7th of this month. Yes I know you will say they been on the road but still seems to me this time of the year Cavs start to play down to their opp. Which may not be bad for the under play if Cavs just D it up and then just stay ahead for the win. Just seeing it as a tough game to call right now want to dig alittle more.

Understood Gunny. Will have to dig deeper myself. We've got some time

 

[easterntimezone]

Slicer -

Got it; many thanks.

Sorry for cluttering up the thread as such.

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

KB,


You got my email response on your capping notes right??

Yes, THX - u only goin w/ BYU this AM?

They got revenge on their side - only concern is A&M was stronger @ end we'll see.:box2: :box2:

 

[axp59]

Yes, THX - u only goin w/ BYU this AM?

They got revenge on their side - only concern is A&M was stronger @ end we'll see.:box2: :box2:

I'd love to jump on more but that's the action junkie talking...before you know it, I'm on all games...

I'm going to pick my spots during the day..

GL with your card pal

 

[easterntimezone]

Both Aldridge and Batum ruled out for tonight's game against the Cavaliers.

Aldridge - concussion.
Batum - sprained ankle.

Portland probably will require an even more controlled pace and a big night from Roy (and someone else) to keep the game close in light of these absences.