Foxsheets/*******
Champs Sports Bowl
OVERVIEW: After being involved in the BCS conversation for much of ?07, 10-3 Boston College settles for a Champs Sports Bowl berth vs. a 7-5 Michigan State team that rallied for wins it its L2 games to secure the same bid. There is still a lot at stake for the Eagles though, namely a seven game bowl winning streak. All of those came under HC Tom O?Brien though, so they will be looking to start a new tradition of postseason success under Jeff Jagodzinski. B.C. is of course led by senior QB Matt Ryan, who helped the team surpass the 350-yard mark in passing six times in its 13 games. Michigan State?s strength is running the ball, 45 times per game for 200 YPG. That attack goes head-to-head with B.C.?s defensive strength, 2.2 YPR allowed! The Spartans are playing in their first bowl game since 2003.
******* Forecaster: BOSTON COLLEGE 34, MICHIGAN ST 26
******* Doug says: This has disappointment written all over it for Boston College. It?s well documented the Eagles have nation?s longest bowl win streak at seven. Boston College rose to second in the polls, lost two games later in the season and bounced back to play for ACC title and post-season reward is always colossal Champs Sports Bowl? Talk about your comedowns, which was further lessened because the school?s
reputation for not traveling well. Michigan State arrives in Orlando on the up-tick. After usual nosedive in October, the Spartans showed internal strength for the first time in years in winning against bowl favorites Purdue and Penn State to close season. The Michigan State running game is 23rd in the country and will get a test against B.C. run defense that was the best in the country at 68.1 YPG. The Eagles had most troubles
against teams that were balanced on offense, like Michigan State. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in L6 against as underdog.
PREDICTION: Michigan State by 3
Texas Bowl
OVERVIEW: The Texas Bowl is fittingly named in 2007, matching a pair of teams from the state in which it is being played. Reliant Stadium in will play host to TCU and Houston, meeting for the eighth time in the L15 years. TCU is playing in this bowl game for the second time, and the Horned Frogs will be looking for their eighth straight win over their in-state rival. The Cougars are looking to snap that same length of losing
streak in bowl games, and are just 2-5 ATS in their L7 postseason contests overall. Like most C-USA teams, the Cougars lean on their offense, with a well balanced 513 YPG (240 RYPG & 273 PYPG). TCU?s strength is its defense, allowing a respectable 4.5 yards per play. HC Gary Patterson?s TCU teams are 18-9 ATS vs. winning teams.
******* Forecaster: TCU 28, HOUSTON 24
******* Bryan says: Nothing should scare prospective supporters like a team without a leader. Houston coach Art Briles has accepted the head coaching job at Baylor, leaving the Cougars to face one of the best defensive units in the country (allowing just 19.2 points per game, 16th in the nation) on their own. Houston?s efforts on offense have been led by senior RB Anthony Alridge, posting more TDs (14) than any other player (including QBs) on the squad. The veteran catalyst must now face a Horned Frog defense that allows just 3.05 yards per carry and has surrendered just 12 rushing TDs on the season. TCU had vision of grandeur as the preseason favorite to take the Mountain West Conference, but early struggles proved lethal. With that said, the late-season offensive rise has been impressive, improving to an average of 33 points per
game over their last six after averaging just 20 in the first six. Houston has yet to earn a win over a team with a winning record, they haven?t won a bowl since 1980, and now they are expected to compete against a superior defense without the man that led them to this point in the first place.
PREDICTION: TCU by 10
Emerald Bowl
OVERVIEW: The 2007 Emerald Bowl matches a pair of teams on the opposite ends of the momentum spectrum. Oregon State played its best football of the season down the stretch, winning six of its L7 games, both SU & ATS. Maryland was 2-4 SU & ATS in its L6 games, and finished with just a .500 record. Still, with a month between the teams? regular season finales and this bowl game, the slate is wiped clean. The Beavers are a 4-point opening favorite and looking for their fourth straight bowl game victory. The Terps are trying to match that same feat, both SU & ATS. Also in favor of HC Ralph Friedgen club is the fact that the underdogs have won the L3 Emerald Bowl games, both SU & ATS. However, their offense will be matched against OSU?s #1 ranked run defense, 2.1 YPR.
******* Forecaster: OREGON ST 25, MARYLAND 23
******* Doug says: Go ahead; name the team that finished third in the Pac-10 this season? The correct answer is Oregon State who for the second year in a row roared down the stretch, being winners of six of last seven with only loss to Rose Bowl participant USC. Maryland?s offensive attack is 88th in the country and will face Beavers defense that chews up opponents running game, holding them to 2.2 yards per carry. If Maryland can?t run the ball that means they will have to throw and they average only a bit over 200 yards a game. QB Chris Turner has a strong arm for the Terps and is known for being able to take a hit, which he most certainly will as Oregon State defense finished with 42 sacks, third highest in school history. If the Beavers are as eager as they closed the regular season they should limit Maryland offense and they are 22-5 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points. The Terps don?t hold up well under pressure and are 4-16 ATS in road games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a game on the season.
PREDICTION: Oregon State by 17