FERRINGO
3-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 154.5 St. Joseph?s at Siena (7 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
This is only the second game in nearly three weeks for either of these teams, and their first games following the Christmas break. I don?t expect either to be as sharp as it normally would. I think St. Joseph?s will avoid the bait of an uptempo game, the style that Sienna wants to play. Combined, only four of 14 games between these teams have sailed this total. Sienna averages 151.3 in its last seven and St. Joe?s averages 141.7. The Hawks aren?t a team of natural scorers and both teams are coming of games where they shot over 50 percent. The layoff, the holidays, and the inflated number all make this a solid against-the-grain play.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Loyola-Maryland (+17.5) over Illinois (9 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
This is a definite letdown spot for the Illini, who are coming off a solid upset of Missouri last weekend. Loyola is 50-24-1 ATS on the road and I think they have enough offensive weapons to hang around in this one. Illinois goes through prolonged stretches where they have trouble scoring, which makes it tough to cover these mammoth numbers. In fact, the Illini are 0-11 ATS as a favorite of 9.0 or higher recently and just 8-15 ATS in those spots over the past three years.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Butler (-1) over Southern Illinois (9 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
Yup, I?m biting. The Bulldogs are healthy, rested, and tested and I think they are simply better than SIU. The Salukis do not have the guard play that they have in the past five seasons and as a result I think they are no longer an elite mid-major. SIU is 2-5 ATS against the Horizon and Butler is 27-8 ATS in nonconference games. I?m going with guards over post players and I think the Bulldogs take this one down against a SIU club that is still a bit overrated.
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COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS
3.5-Unit Play. Take #406 Boston College (-4) over Michigan State (5 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
Note: Play for 3.0 or 2.5 Units at -4.5 or -5.0 or higher, respectively.
The Spartans had a chance to spring an upset over a deflated Boston College team but now that time is over. Michigan State lost two defensive starters for this game and I think that shows that they aren?t as focused as they should be. Boston College?s seniors are the winningest group in school history and I think they go out on top. The Eagles can stop the run, neutralizing MSU?s strength, and I don?t think MSU can stop Matt Ryan. The Spartans are just 7-19 ATS on grass and 7-16 ATS in nonconference games. Boston College is 6-1 ATS in bowl games and 15-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are so much better than the Spartans that it is sick, and only a severe mental letdown by B.C. can prevent a blowout here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #410 Oregon State (-5) over Maryland (8:30 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
The ACC stinks. If you want a decent system for this bowl season I say bet against the Big 10 and ACC blindly for the rest of the season. I'm not kidding. These conferences were awful in nonconference play, have been terrible in bowl games over the past two years, and are perpetually overrated. I think this game is going to be a blowout as a pretty tough Beavers team is able to overpower the Terps.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 56.0 Mississippi State vs. Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
2-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+130) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
3-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+3) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think we have two physical teams here and two teams that will be trading blows all afternoon long. UCF isn?t going to be able to run on a tough SEC team the same way they rolled over CUSA foes. The ?under? is 7-1 in UCF?s last eight games and 11-5-1 in nonconference games. The ?under? is also 23-9-1 after an MSU loss and 4-1 overall for the Bulldogs.
2-Unit Play. Take #458 Kentucky (-9) over Florida State (4 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
Note: Play up to -9.5. No play at 10.0 or higher.
I think this one is fairly obvious. I like the Wildcats in this one before whole FSU Suspension Fiasco and I don?t think the line here has properly adjusted. Kentucky beat a better Clemson team last year in their bowl game and this year they should handle the undermanned Seminoles. UK was terrible the last month of the year, but a closer look reveals that their losses were to powerhouses Tennessee (by 2), Georgia (by 11) and LSU (by 6). Two of the losses came in overtime. The ACC stinks and I think the Cats win this one by double digits.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #454 South Florida (-6) over Oregon (2 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
The Ducks are really on tilt. Since losing Dennis Dixon this team has gone in the tank and I just don?t trust Brady Leaf (or whoever else is quarterbacking the Ducks) in this one. This USF team is battle hardened and they have faced the type of speed they?ll be matched up against in the Sun Bowl. Oregon is 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games and 1-5 ATS in December. USF is on a 14-6 ATS run and are 5-1 ATS in nonconference games. I think the Bulls drive the final nail in a once promising Oregon season.
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Florida (-3.5) over Michigan AND Take #472 USC (-6.5) over Illinois
2-Unit Play. Take #472 USC (-13.5) over Illinois (5 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
The Big 10 stinks. I think both of these games are going to be ugly, ugly blowouts as the Florida and USC programs are just head and shoulders above either UM or Illinois. Also, there is no doubt that Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll will have far superior game plans with the extra preparation time. All in all I think this is one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #466 Missouri (-3) over Arkansas (11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think the Tigers are the better team here and that we?re getting a bargain with this spread. If it had been -7 we would have likely stayed away here. But Arkansas has had a lot of trouble with pass-happy teams this year, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee this season. Missouri has lost to only Oklahoma and has handled other BCS bowl teams Illinois and Kansas. I think the Tigers make a statement and avoid the letdown. Mizzou is 8-1 ATS after a loss of 20 or more points, 11-3 ATS overall, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site games. The Hogs are just 2-5 ATS in nonconference games and just 2-5 SU in their last seven bowl games.
7-Unit Play. Take #474 Georgia (-7.5) over Hawaii (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think this one gets ugly. I have nothing but confidence that Mark Richt, the master motivator, will have his Bulldogs ready to roll in this one. Hawaii is just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record and this game reminds me of when Boise State came to Athens in 2005 and got hammered by 35 points. Hawaii is 4-7 ATS as road dogs
4-7 as road dogs and is 10-15 ATS off the islands since 2003. Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 3-2 ATS in its last five. I think they dominate this one from start to finish and position themselves in the preseason Top 5 for next year.
4.5-Unit Play. Take LSU (-4) over Ohio State (9 p.m., Monday, Jan. 7)
LSU isn't as good as it thinks it is. But they are still better than Ohio State. I do see a defensive struggle but I think that the difference - just like in last year's blowout - will be the speed of the Tigers. The Buckeyes simply do not matchup against that type of speed and athleticism in the Big 10. Ohio State has virtually no wins that impress me other than a blowout at Penn State. But even the Lions proved that they aren't very good. The Buckeyes simply don't deserve to be in this game, and are not in the same class as LSU. The Tigers will not blowout OSU like Florida managed to last year but this will be a convincing victory for the SEC.
NFL SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+2) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.0 New Orleans at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17 - especially ones that are favored at home. The Saints do not play any defense at all, making them a dicey bet at any time. They had trouble in the slop of Soldiers Field last January and I think they will struggle again this year. I think both teams are going to move the ball and I know the Bears have enough pride to play this one for a win and end a long season on a positive note.
2-Unit Play. Take Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
The Bucs are going to be resting just about every key player and are already looking ahead to a matchup with the Giants next weekend. Carolina has been improving over the past month and these guys are still playing (and coaching) for their jobs next year. This is a divisional game so there is definitely extra motivation on the side of the Panthers to lay one on Tampa Bay.
2-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+10) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17. The Browns are desperate but they don't stop people. San Francisco stunned Denver in Mile High to close out last year and I think they could do the same in this situation. The Browns have to be feeling a bit down after last week's crushing loss at Cincinnati. The Niners are playing better and I don't see them rolling over in this one.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-6) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
The Texans have had the Jags' number over the past three years when the two teams are playing straight. Now mix in the fact that the Jags will likely be resting their key parts in order to gear up for the postseason and Houston could hang a big number up. The Texans are looking for the franchise's eighth win of the season and that's a mark that means something to them. I think they get their win by pulling away late and laying a big one on a division rival.
1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take New England (-9.5) over New York Giants (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Note: If the Patriots do not cover this halftime number I, personally, will be doubling down on either the third quarter line or the second half line. I just don't see a scenario where the Pats don't destroy the G-Men, who don't have the corners to slow down the N.E. offense. Have to play it by ear.
Even if the Giants play their starters, their secondary will get shredded by the New England attack. The Pats will enter this game motivated and will try to put this one away early. They know they will have two weeks before their next game and they do not want to face the wrath of Belichick of they play a sloppy game. The Pats are going to put a bow on their perfect regular season and there really isn't much New York can do about it.
That's it for this week. Good luck.