SERVICE PLAYS FOR FRIDAY 12/14
- Thread starter Bootlegbobby
- Start date
Hey BN, I wasn't trying to bust nuts. I didn't realize the thread had already been corrected brother.
Here's a little A Ralph personal insight.
BEWARE of his free picks... He always adds the winners to his tally, but conveniently FORGETS the losers about half the time:shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :mj07: ...like every other capper I guess. I know, it's shock:scared ing.
I subscribed for a week a few weeks ago. He went 11-8 and it was a legit 11-8 (not ML favs or anything).
I don't know if his "won 89% of the last 100 weeks" BS is true, but I did have a winning week.
His free plays probably run about 55% (not bad) and his SUPER PICKS do seem to run much higher 65% or so probably.
He seems to cap on trends (especially SU team v team) as is the case. I find that if I skeptically toss his favs where you lay 10+ points, you can really up your percentage with him. As with any capper, you should probably follow blindly, but I do find that if I scrutinize the big chalk plays, you will do alright with him.
Actually, a useful personal strategy with any capper is this:
If there is a writeup that makes sense, that you can somewhat verify that helps. Any post that is just:
Big Al GOY -Pistons-10...I IGNORE...period.
Also, if a guy is 16-4 his last 20...big fkkn deal!
Tomorrow he'll be 16-5, have a great record, and you will have lost.
Guys like Burns (great in NHL and NFL) always give a good writeup. ...with useful siyuations, stats, and trends.
If a guy gives me a 30000000* lock of my life because "the Redskins will win this for the memory of (I forget the guys name already) who was shot last week"...to me that is bullshit. What? you attended the funeral or something.? The other coach called you personally and said they'd just lay down? Please.
Sorry to rant, just trying to share some of the stuff that works for me for the newbies.
In closing I look for a few things.
1. Is it POSSIBLE?
2. Is it PROBABLE?
3. Is it LIKELY by a 2-1 margin to be a winner?
If I get a yes to #3, I play it....oh AND ALL THE SAME...not even a double play, or 1.5 units ...ALWAYS 1 unit. That's just me, but a play is a play, none better or worse. My bank is limited, the books is not. 3% of bank per play period.
That's all I got. I'll shut up for another few months.
Good luck to all today and everyday....except the fkkn bookie!
Jack Clayton
5-Star NBA Total
5* (707) Bucks/Celtics over:
One thing we know about Milwaukee: They still don't play any defense under coach Larry Krystkowiak. This team was awful last year and is still more interested in scoring behind guards Michael Redd and Mo Williams. They allow 46% shooting, 10th worst in the NBA. They face a Boston offense that can beat you down low and outside, averaging 101 ppg, 11th best. The Bucks got off to a great start against Orlando, making 14 of their first 20 shots and jumping out to a 34-20 lead. The Bucks led by 17 late in the second quarter and, shooting 53.8%, were in front at halftime, scoring 53 points. That's their game. Boston can play any style and will gladly run with this soft Milwaukee defense, as they've improved their three-point shooting and low post game significantly this season. The Bucks give up 103 ppg on the road while the Celtics average 102 ppg at home. This total is far too low. Play the Bucks/Celtics over the total!
5-Star NBA Total
5* (707) Bucks/Celtics over:
One thing we know about Milwaukee: They still don't play any defense under coach Larry Krystkowiak. This team was awful last year and is still more interested in scoring behind guards Michael Redd and Mo Williams. They allow 46% shooting, 10th worst in the NBA. They face a Boston offense that can beat you down low and outside, averaging 101 ppg, 11th best. The Bucks got off to a great start against Orlando, making 14 of their first 20 shots and jumping out to a 34-20 lead. The Bucks led by 17 late in the second quarter and, shooting 53.8%, were in front at halftime, scoring 53 points. That's their game. Boston can play any style and will gladly run with this soft Milwaukee defense, as they've improved their three-point shooting and low post game significantly this season. The Bucks give up 103 ppg on the road while the Celtics average 102 ppg at home. This total is far too low. Play the Bucks/Celtics over the total!
Just one other thing as Clayton's play was just posted. I know Jack Sh*t about Jack Clayton. I'm on this play though. It makes sense. When I looked at the last 18 games these teams played after reading his post 15 went over 189. Obviously these teams seem to play each other higher scoring. It also offers useful stuff in his post-scoring averages, playing styles, PF and PA, etc.
Regarding my personal criteria, I believe with all considered, it is LIKELY by a 2-1 margin (66.7%) to go over the total like he says. It may not, but I like my chances here...we'll see....
NOW, I'll go shut up for a few months.....:shrug:
wunderdogsports (nba)
Game: Utah at Portland (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Utah -6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Portland has played very well, winning five straight. But the injuries are mounting. LaMarcus Aldridge will miss this game as well as Martell Webster, who is out with the flu. Utah lost to Portland at home less than a week ago and will be motivated to get that bitter taste out of their mouth for this one. Utah after a 13-5 start, has now dropped five in a row. Webster was the difference in the game vs Utah, as he poured in 25 and connected on five three's. The rest of the team made just 23 hoops the entire game, and Utah has too much depth and firepower to lose back-to-back against a depleted Portland team.
Game: Utah at Portland (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Utah -6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Portland has played very well, winning five straight. But the injuries are mounting. LaMarcus Aldridge will miss this game as well as Martell Webster, who is out with the flu. Utah lost to Portland at home less than a week ago and will be motivated to get that bitter taste out of their mouth for this one. Utah after a 13-5 start, has now dropped five in a row. Webster was the difference in the game vs Utah, as he poured in 25 and connected on five three's. The rest of the team made just 23 hoops the entire game, and Utah has too much depth and firepower to lose back-to-back against a depleted Portland team.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
1AA CHAMPIONSHIP
Frank Rosenthal
DELAWARE VS APPALACHIAN ST
291 DELAWARE+6 SB
OVER 67 SB+
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NBA
703 MAGIC-4 SB
714 WOLVES-1 SB
716 MAVS UNDER 196 SB+
720 BULLS-9 SB+
723 LAKERS OVER 227 SB
1AA CHAMPIONSHIP
Frank Rosenthal
DELAWARE VS APPALACHIAN ST
291 DELAWARE+6 SB
OVER 67 SB+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA
703 MAGIC-4 SB
714 WOLVES-1 SB
716 MAVS UNDER 196 SB+
720 BULLS-9 SB+
723 LAKERS OVER 227 SB
Winning Points Online. 1-0 on best bets totals in NBA
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14
10:05 pm
***BEST BET
UNDER 200
Utah at Portland
Something works, you stick with it as long
as it made sense with sound reasoning
originally. This is a reprise of Tuesday
night's BEST BET Under played in Utah.
Since then, Utah played an Under in Phoenix,
of all places, and Portland played an Under
against the Warriors, of all opponents.
When these teams are playing below the total
against the fastest-paced teams in the NBA,
and tonight Utah is without its backup point
guard Jason Hart and perimeter mismatch Mehmet
Okur, Under is once again the way to go.
Without Hart to spell Deron Williams, he has
to play a more deliberate game to save his
wheels over four quarters. Okur's three-pointer
is not in the mix, nor is his lousy defense.
Paul Millsap gets Okur's minutes and he is the
kind of guy who will suck up all of Portland's
many forthcoming misses and prevent second-chance
points. Offensively? Not much. But Sloan is
determined to end this five-game losing streak
with better defensive intensity and execution.
Will he? Not so sure, but the play is as
called. UTAH, 93-90.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14
10:05 pm
***BEST BET
UNDER 200
Utah at Portland
Something works, you stick with it as long
as it made sense with sound reasoning
originally. This is a reprise of Tuesday
night's BEST BET Under played in Utah.
Since then, Utah played an Under in Phoenix,
of all places, and Portland played an Under
against the Warriors, of all opponents.
When these teams are playing below the total
against the fastest-paced teams in the NBA,
and tonight Utah is without its backup point
guard Jason Hart and perimeter mismatch Mehmet
Okur, Under is once again the way to go.
Without Hart to spell Deron Williams, he has
to play a more deliberate game to save his
wheels over four quarters. Okur's three-pointer
is not in the mix, nor is his lousy defense.
Paul Millsap gets Okur's minutes and he is the
kind of guy who will suck up all of Portland's
many forthcoming misses and prevent second-chance
points. Offensively? Not much. But Sloan is
determined to end this five-game losing streak
with better defensive intensity and execution.
Will he? Not so sure, but the play is as
called. UTAH, 93-90.
Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Jersey Nets - Friday December 14, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 (-109)
We like Cavs in this spot, for a number of reasons. First and foremost, King (Lebron) James is back, having scored 17 on 5-9 shooting in 22 minutes of play Wed night in Cavs' easy win over Indy, his first game back since being sidelined with pesky finger injury two weeks ago in Detroit. Ironically, this was the first game since the debacle in Detroit that Cavs didn't need Lebron in order to win, as Larry Hughes was unstoppable, hitting 13 of 17 shots (including 5 of 8 treys) for 36 points in just 26 minutes of PT (playing time). But now the full strength Cavs focus their efforts on the NJ Nets, who humiliated them 100-79 in Cleveland just 10 days ago, with Lebron on the bench nursing his injury. As you may recall, the Cavs beat the Nets in LY 's playoffs on their way to the NBA finals, winning their L2 games in NJ in doing so. TY Cavs should be able to continue their success in the garden state, as they are 5-0 away vs less then .500 teams (like the nets) when Lebron is in the line-up, and the nets have been horrible at home TY, especially as a small favorite or underdog vs "B" teams (like the Cavs, at this point), against whom they are 0-6, with an average MOL of 12 points. This home ineptness by the nets is a carryover from LY, as they are not only 2-11 ATS at home TY but 3-13-1 ATS at home in their L17 home, going back to last April. In their most recent home game, the nets put on a pathetic performance, not only losing to the lowly Clippers, but shooting a miserable 32 % and an even worse 2-14 on treys, and being out-rebounded by 9. We like Cavs up to -3, but we urge all customers to get their bets in ASAP (hopefully still at this overnight line of 2.5), as we think line will rise to 3 and maybe higher due to public awareness of Lebron's return, Cavs' revenge motive and Nets' poor home record TY. When individual team totals lines are posted after noon, we will add an afternoon update if we like Cleveland over the total and/or Nets under the total. Although Cavs should win this game and cover this low number without much trouble, another way to get added value out of this pick would be to tease Cleve to +2 or better with one or two of our other NBA selections for today.
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Jersey Nets - Friday December 14, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 (-109)
We like Cavs in this spot, for a number of reasons. First and foremost, King (Lebron) James is back, having scored 17 on 5-9 shooting in 22 minutes of play Wed night in Cavs' easy win over Indy, his first game back since being sidelined with pesky finger injury two weeks ago in Detroit. Ironically, this was the first game since the debacle in Detroit that Cavs didn't need Lebron in order to win, as Larry Hughes was unstoppable, hitting 13 of 17 shots (including 5 of 8 treys) for 36 points in just 26 minutes of PT (playing time). But now the full strength Cavs focus their efforts on the NJ Nets, who humiliated them 100-79 in Cleveland just 10 days ago, with Lebron on the bench nursing his injury. As you may recall, the Cavs beat the Nets in LY 's playoffs on their way to the NBA finals, winning their L2 games in NJ in doing so. TY Cavs should be able to continue their success in the garden state, as they are 5-0 away vs less then .500 teams (like the nets) when Lebron is in the line-up, and the nets have been horrible at home TY, especially as a small favorite or underdog vs "B" teams (like the Cavs, at this point), against whom they are 0-6, with an average MOL of 12 points. This home ineptness by the nets is a carryover from LY, as they are not only 2-11 ATS at home TY but 3-13-1 ATS at home in their L17 home, going back to last April. In their most recent home game, the nets put on a pathetic performance, not only losing to the lowly Clippers, but shooting a miserable 32 % and an even worse 2-14 on treys, and being out-rebounded by 9. We like Cavs up to -3, but we urge all customers to get their bets in ASAP (hopefully still at this overnight line of 2.5), as we think line will rise to 3 and maybe higher due to public awareness of Lebron's return, Cavs' revenge motive and Nets' poor home record TY. When individual team totals lines are posted after noon, we will add an afternoon update if we like Cleveland over the total and/or Nets under the total. Although Cavs should win this game and cover this low number without much trouble, another way to get added value out of this pick would be to tease Cleve to +2 or better with one or two of our other NBA selections for today.
Mr.A's
NBA
Friday, December 14th, 2007 (Eastern Time)
Games Mr. A's Selections
Sacramento at Philadelphia, 7:00 PM Philadelphia 76ers - 4?
Atlanta at Detroit, 8:00 PM Detroit Pistons - 10
Utah at Portland, 10:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers + 5
NBA
Friday, December 14th, 2007 (Eastern Time)
Games Mr. A's Selections
Sacramento at Philadelphia, 7:00 PM Philadelphia 76ers - 4?
Atlanta at Detroit, 8:00 PM Detroit Pistons - 10
Utah at Portland, 10:00 PM Portland Trail Blazers + 5
EZ Winners
5 STAR: (724) GOLDEN STATE (-5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (705) SACRAMENTO (+4.5) over Philadelphia
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: (712) NEW JERSEY (+3) over Cleveland
(Risking $330 to win $300)
NCAA
1 STAR: (725) DRAKE (-2.5) over Iowa
(Risking $110 to win $100
5 STAR: (724) GOLDEN STATE (-5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (705) SACRAMENTO (+4.5) over Philadelphia
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: (712) NEW JERSEY (+3) over Cleveland
(Risking $330 to win $300)
NCAA
1 STAR: (725) DRAKE (-2.5) over Iowa
(Risking $110 to win $100
SEBASTION ( 7-0 SWEEP LAST NIGHT !!)
NCAA
10 Drake
NBA
10 Indiana
10 Orlando
20 Cleveland
20 Milwaukee Under
NHL
10 Atlanta
NCAA
10 Drake
NBA
10 Indiana
10 Orlando
20 Cleveland
20 Milwaukee Under
NHL
10 Atlanta
ATS LOCK
6 Cleveland -3
4 New Orleans +9
4 Orlando -4 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Philly -4 1/2
3 Detroit -9 1/2
6 Cleveland -3
4 New Orleans +9
4 Orlando -4 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Philly -4 1/2
3 Detroit -9 1/2
Sport Game and Time Money Play
NBA Sacramento @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST 100* Sacramento +4.5
NBA New Orleans @ Dallas 8:35 PM EST 75* Dallas -8.5
NBA New York @ Chicago 8:35 PM EST 75* Chicago -10
NBA Milwaukee @ Boston 8:35 PM EST 50* UNDER 188
NBA Orlando @ Charlotte 7:05 PM EST 40* Orlando -4.5
CBB Drake @ Iowa 8:00 PM EST 75* Iowa +2.5
SportsAction365
NBA Sacramento @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST 100* Sacramento +4.5
NBA New Orleans @ Dallas 8:35 PM EST 75* Dallas -8.5
NBA New York @ Chicago 8:35 PM EST 75* Chicago -10
NBA Milwaukee @ Boston 8:35 PM EST 50* UNDER 188
NBA Orlando @ Charlotte 7:05 PM EST 40* Orlando -4.5
CBB Drake @ Iowa 8:00 PM EST 75* Iowa +2.5
SportsAction365
Brandon Lang
FRIDAY
5-DIME
Pacers
Timberwolves
Cavaliers
PACERS ? T.J. Ford is expected to miss another game tonight, and that can't be good in facing against the Pacers, who will be in search of revenge from a Nov. 16 loss in the teams' first clash of the season. Ford played a pivotal role in that game, and without him, the Raptors will suffer terribly. On the other end of the court, Jamal Tinsley is trying desperately to keep the focus on him and the basketball court ? not last Sunday's shooting in downtown Indianapolis. He looked strong Wednesday night in pouring in 18 points and dishing out eight assists in a 117-102 win over Chicago. Indiana has won eight of its last 10 home games against Toronto, while it's covered four of its last five overall. Also, in this series, the home team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings, while the favorite has covered four of five.
TIMBERWOLVES - Seattle, just 3-9 on the road, will play its fourth road game in six nights and should be a tad lethargic for this game. I know the Sonics seem to be settling into a groove offensively, and have finally found some support for Kevin Durant, but this is a game they'll obviously come in overconfident for, and will struggle down the stretch. The Wolves are in triple revenge, and by isolating Durant tonight, double-teaming him and keeping him from taking high-percentage shots, we're going to see Seattle's cast become frustrated throughout the night. Lay the low chalk in this one, as the home team is the right play.
CAVALIERS - The Nets won the first matchup, 100-79, Dec. 4 in Cleveland, but let's not forget it was one of those games the Cavs were without LeBron James. And make no mistake, he's back and ready to negate the losing streak his team endured. Despite the loss 10 days ago, the Cavaliers have beaten New Jersey in four of the past six, while the Nets have lost four straight and are now 4-6 in their past 10. The Nets are also riding dismal runs of 4-9 SU and 2-11 ATS at home, so Cleveland's confidence should be high for this one. This is the first of back-to-back games for the Cavs, who play Philadelphia in Cleveland on Saturday, and this season the Cavaliers are 4-2 on the first night of back-to-backs this season ? including a perfect 2-0 on the road
FRIDAY
5-DIME
Pacers
Timberwolves
Cavaliers
PACERS ? T.J. Ford is expected to miss another game tonight, and that can't be good in facing against the Pacers, who will be in search of revenge from a Nov. 16 loss in the teams' first clash of the season. Ford played a pivotal role in that game, and without him, the Raptors will suffer terribly. On the other end of the court, Jamal Tinsley is trying desperately to keep the focus on him and the basketball court ? not last Sunday's shooting in downtown Indianapolis. He looked strong Wednesday night in pouring in 18 points and dishing out eight assists in a 117-102 win over Chicago. Indiana has won eight of its last 10 home games against Toronto, while it's covered four of its last five overall. Also, in this series, the home team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings, while the favorite has covered four of five.
TIMBERWOLVES - Seattle, just 3-9 on the road, will play its fourth road game in six nights and should be a tad lethargic for this game. I know the Sonics seem to be settling into a groove offensively, and have finally found some support for Kevin Durant, but this is a game they'll obviously come in overconfident for, and will struggle down the stretch. The Wolves are in triple revenge, and by isolating Durant tonight, double-teaming him and keeping him from taking high-percentage shots, we're going to see Seattle's cast become frustrated throughout the night. Lay the low chalk in this one, as the home team is the right play.
CAVALIERS - The Nets won the first matchup, 100-79, Dec. 4 in Cleveland, but let's not forget it was one of those games the Cavs were without LeBron James. And make no mistake, he's back and ready to negate the losing streak his team endured. Despite the loss 10 days ago, the Cavaliers have beaten New Jersey in four of the past six, while the Nets have lost four straight and are now 4-6 in their past 10. The Nets are also riding dismal runs of 4-9 SU and 2-11 ATS at home, so Cleveland's confidence should be high for this one. This is the first of back-to-back games for the Cavs, who play Philadelphia in Cleveland on Saturday, and this season the Cavaliers are 4-2 on the first night of back-to-backs this season ? including a perfect 2-0 on the road
Johnny Guild
CBB
Friday, December 14th, 2007
Time Games Daily Picks
8:05 PM EST. Drake (8-1) at Iowa (6-5) Drake Bulldogs -2.5
CBB
Friday, December 14th, 2007
Time Games Daily Picks
8:05 PM EST. Drake (8-1) at Iowa (6-5) Drake Bulldogs -2.5
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(Fri) NBA Knicks
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