Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ South Alabama
2. 50,000♦ Pistons
3. 50,000♦ Arizona State
1. South Alabama- No question the Jaguars are playing the best basketball in the Sun Belt right now, sitting at 9-0 in conference play, you better believe their goal is to stay undefeated tonight. They get just what the doctor ordered, as this North Texas team is struggling right now, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS over their last 4 games.
Some may argue that the Mean Green will be looking to bounce back after their last home game, an 83-61 ass-whipping at the hands of a good, but not great New Orleans team. While that may be true, they didn't show much motivation in the two road losses after the New Orleans debacle, and its going to take a lot more than motivation to beat a surging South Alabama squad in this one. In fact, the trends support the road team, going 9-4 ATS over their last 13 meetings!
First and foremost, a superior Jaguars offense is going to rip apart a very flimsy Mean Green defense. Over their last 5 games, North Texas is allowing 73 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting! Over the same span, this Jaguars squad is scoring 78 ppg on 49% shooting... Can't you just see Demetric Bennett (29 points in their last meeting) and company licking their chops?!
Second, if you've seen this Mean Green offense of late, do you really believe they're going to be able to crack a solid South Alabama defense? Besides the fact the Jaguars are coming off a game where they limited Denver to 33 points, over their last 5 games they've been rock-solid, allowing 63 ppg on 42% shooting. Not only that, but in their last home game, the Mean Green shot just 32% and turned the ball over 20 times... Sloppy play making all that much easier for the Jaguars!
Bottom line, North Texas is in no condition right now to be butting heads with a surging South Alabama squad. The Mean Green maybe slumping, but don't expect the Jaguars to lose focus, as their last meeting was a 90-89 OT battle. South Alabama is the team to beat right now in the Sun Belt, and I expect them to play accordingly tonight. Jaguars roll!
Take South Alabama over North Texas as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Pistons- Lakers come into this game slumping a bit, losers of 4 of their last 6 games SU, including both road games in Texas against San Antonio and Dallas. Now they travel to place they've had real issues winning, the Palace of Auburn Hills, going 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS over their last 8 meetings there!
Pistons play has been up and down, but after losing 4 of 5, they've gotten back on track with 3 straight victories, including a nice win and cover against Orlando in their last home game. Note that Detroit is 9-2 ATS over their last 11 home games, thanks in large part to their defense allowing a miniscule 86 ppg there on the season!
Expect Detroit to be especially motivated in this one, as they remember well their last meeting, where the Lakers took advantage of the absence of Billups to beat the Pistons 103-91 at the Staples Center. My how the tables have turned, as the Lakers are now coming into this game short-handed, as the loss of Bynum is huge in this match up, not to mention F Ariza and possibly F Walton. Needless to say based on their 8-game losing streak in Detroit, the Lakers need every player they can get!
Finally, much like their last meeting in Detroit, the Lakers defense has been suspect on the road this season, allowing 102 ppg on 44% shooting. The last time they met at the Palace, Detroit scored 93 points on 45% shooting and turned the ball over only 7 times! Lakers find themselves in a bind again tonight, with their frontcourt severly shorthanded, they'll be hard-pressed to match up with Rasheed and company in this one.
Take the Pistons comfortably over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.
3. Arizona State- While its true the Sun Devils have dropped off a bit since starting scorching hot, I firmly believe oddsmakers went too far with the number in this one. Not only is Arizona State 6-2 ATS over their last 8 meetings at UCLA, but I expect the Sun Devils to come out fired up for this one, knowing a win here would completely reverse the downturn they've taken in losing their last 3 games.
Both teams rely on stout defense to beat their opponents, but did you know over their last 5 games, the Sun Devils defensive numbers are actually better than the Bruins?! Both are allowing roughly 68 ppg, but Arizona State's opponents are shooting only 42%, as compared to a much higher 47% (44% from 3-point) for UCLA.
Granted, the Bruins have the edge in the frontcourt, with C Kevin Love in the paint and on the glass, but let's not get too carried away. The Sun Devils Harden is one of the better freshmen guards in the country, coming off a 25-point effort against an excellent Washington State defense. Not only that, but I expect Pendergraph, who's been struggling over their 3-game losing streak, to come alive in this critical conference match up for the Sun Devils.
Finally, for all the hoopla surrounding the Bruins, they're just 4-5-1 ATS at home this season. They've failed to cover double-digit spreads in three straight home games, against USC , Washington, and UC Davis. More of the same tonight, as the public may love the Bruins, but sharp bettors know covering a bloated number in a heated conference match up is too much to ask from the Bruins in this one.
Take Arizona State plus the points over UCLA in this PAC-10 showdown.