Wunderdog
CBB
Game: Providence at Notre Dame (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Notre Dame -8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Providence has been vulnerable to teams that can bury three-pointers all season. Teams that can score on the perimeter have really crippled the Friars zone, as evidenced by losses to Marquette, Seton Hall and Rhode Island. Notre Dame hasn't lost in this building in an eternity and Connecticut is the only team to defeat a pointspread this low in South Bend this season. In that game they were down by 20 at one point. Harangody gives Irish inside out presence, and will be tough to defend. The Friars have dropped two straight and are shooting poorly in their last three, hitting just 37, 38 and 43 percent respectively. That won't be enough vs. a dominant Irish team on their home floor.
Game: Wisconsin Green Bay at Wright State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Wisconsin Green Bay +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Wisconsin Green Bay has just two road wins on the season, and a closer look gives an indication why. They have played at Ohio State, Massachusettes, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Butler and Valpo. Not too many teams in this conference are getting wins in any of those places. That means they are 11-2 vs all others, so they come into this contest a bit under the radar. This is a good shooting team, hitting 45% and 78% of their FTs. Those six teams shot a combined 49% vs the Phoenix, while all others are at about 40%, so W-GB is more than capable of defending Wright State. They can really dial it up from long distance, as they possess three players connecting on over 41%. Wright State comes home after three straight road wins, but to teams with a combined record of 21-38. Their last three against teams with a winning record have all gone in the loss column. And, they are just 2-5 ATS last seven at home. The Phoenix have a shot to get the win here, so we will grab the points.
Game: Minnesota at Michigan (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Minnesota -3 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
What happened to both of these clubs? After starting 9-2, the Gophers have dropped five of seven. Michigan has lost nine of ten to drop to 5-15 on the season. But let's look at the overall teams here. One team is 5-15 and the other is 12-6. One team has all 5 starters back from last season while the other has just 1. Why such a low line? Yes, the game is in Ann Arbor. But, Minnesota is the much better ballclub. Minnesota is 4-4 on the road, outscoring opponents by 3 ppg. Michigan is 3-6 at home, losing by 2 ppg. In converence play, Michigan is just 1-7. It's not just year for Michigan. Over the past two seasons they are 11-22 ATS vs. winning teams and 8-17 ATS vs. teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game (Minnesota allows 63.1 per game). In the underdog role, they are 7-18 ATS over that span. Maybe at some point John Beilein will turn things around here, but not tonight. Minnesota rolls.
Game: Temple at Fordham (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Temple +0 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Temple features a strong tandem in Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale who combine for over half of the team's total scoring. Christmas pours in nearly 21 per game along with 6.3 rpg. This team is playing great defense of late, allowing just 60.8 ppg over their last five games. They get a Fordham team that is struggling to score (62.6 per game ove rtheir last five). Fordham is just 6-16 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that hit 45%+ from the field (Temple averages 46.5%). The Rams are also just 11-22 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons.
Game: Florida International at Denver (9:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Denver -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Florida International is 6-6 at home but they have yet to find the win column in seven tries on the road this season. They are shooting a dismal 40.8% from the field away from home, leading to just 59.3 ppg. That's just not going to get it done. Denver is another team that struggles on offense, but at least they have the defense to keep them in games. They are allowing just 53.1 ppg at home on the season, the main reason they are 7-1 here. FIU allows 22 ppg more per game than that on the road. FIU is 4-12 ATS the past two seasons vs. losing teams. Denver is 14-4 ATS over that span at home vs. conference opponents. They are also 26-13 ATs in their last 39 home games coming off a road loss and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after scoring 50 points or less.
Game: Montana at Portland State (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Portland State -5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Portland State has been off for nearly two weeks while Montana has played three games during that span. Will the layoff help or hurt the Vikings? We think it helps. They are off a hard fought OT win so have felt good. And they will obviously be verywell rested and prepared for this game. They are 6-1 at home, scoring 78.4 ppg here. Over their last five games overall they have averaged 77.4. Montana has lost all six games ATS over the pat two seasons vs. teams with a winning record after 15 games. Montana has covered the spread in two of their last three games but they are a perfect 0-8 ATS in that situation teh past two seasons.
Game: New Mexico State at Hawaii (11:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New Mexico State -3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Aggies have taken on a very difficult road slate early, which should pay off in a vist off the mainland tonight at Hawaii. New Mexico State has been on the road vs W. Virginia, Duke,T exas, Louisville and Boise State already, and have now won six of eight. This team is beginning to gel. They can score, with six double-digit scorers, and a few others that contribute significantly as well. The Warriors not like teams of old that put away opponents at home as they are just .500 this year. When you consider the home slate has been laiden with cupcakes, the 6-6 mark becomes suspect. Four of the home wins are to 4-18 Coppin State, 3-17 Alcorn State, 4-14 Long Beach State and 9-12 Centanary. None of the six wins have come vs a team over .500. The Warriors are really giving it up on the defensive end, and New Mexico State has a lot of answers on the offensive end.
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Wunderdog NBA
Game: Cleveland at Seattle (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Cavs have quietly come on very strong. After starting poorly at 14-17, they have won seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13. They have gone from mediocre to dominant. Seattle has been awful. They finally snapped a 14-game losing streak with a win over San Antonio on Tuesday. That win will keep Cleveland's guard up here. We like the surging Cavs vs. a still-terrible Sonics team.
