- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
SERVICE PLAYS FOR THURSDAY 1/31
- Thread starter Bootlegbobby
- Start date
dr b@b
COLLEGE
4 Star Selection
Wisconsin Milwaukee (-2 ?) over DETROIT
31-Jan-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Detroit has lost 13 games in a row and things aren?t likely to get any better tonight against an underrated Milwaukee squad that is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS since kicking a few players off the team in mid-December. The players that are left all play with passion and they have responded to coach Rob Jeter?s disciplinary actions against those former players. My ratings favor Wisconsin Milwaukee by 6 points and Detroit applies to a very negative 18-75-5 ATS situation. Milwaukee?s only bad game with their current rotation was a 2 point home win over Detroit, but that close call will assure that they do not take this game for granted. Also, the fact the Milwaukee won that game despite shooting a horrendous 32% from the field and 22% from 3-point range suggests just how much of an advantage that they have over the Titans. The line of 2 ? points on this game is based on using all of Wisconsin-Milwaukee?s games for the season, but the Panthers are clearly a better team with their current roster than they were before the dismissals. I?ll take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 4-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, for 3- Stars from -4 ? to -6 points and for 2-Stars at -6 ? points.
4-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars from -4 1/2 to -6, 2-Stars at -6 1/2.
3 Star Selection
Minnesota (-2 1/2) over MICHIGAN
31-Jan-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Apparently the oddsmakers have lost faith in Minnesota after 3 straight games in which the Gophers lost and failed to cover the spread. Those losses to Indiana, Michigan State and Ohio State simply showed me that Minnesota continues not to be good enough to beat good teams. However, those losses certainly don?t indicate that the Gophers can?t still beat the likes of a 5-13 Michigan team that is just 1-9 in their last 10 games (with the one win coming against lowly Northwestern). Minnesota is now 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS against the best 6 teams that they faced (Florida State, UNLV, Michigan State (twice), Indiana, and Ohio State), all of which are going to be playing in the NIT or NCAA Tournament this season. The Gophers are 12-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS (the only spread loss in a 17 point win as a 19 ? point favorite) against the 12 teams that they?ve faced that aren?t likely to see post-season action - and Michigan can be added to that list of mediocre and bad teams. Minnesota has played two road games against teams of Michigan?s caliber (actually a bit better than Michigan) and the Gophers won those games by 10 points at Iowa State and by 3 points at Penn State. Michigan, meanwhile, has their 5 wins against Radford, Brown, Eastern Washington, Oakland, and Northwestern, and the best of those teams (Oakland) is about 7 points worse than Minnesota. Aside from the line value (my ratings favor Minnesota by 4 ?) the Gophers apply to a 62-23-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and a 53-17-3 ATS bounce-back situation that are both set up by their recent string of losses to good teams. I?ll take Minnesota in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, for 4-Stars at -2 or less and for 2- Stars at -4 ? or -5 points.
3-Stars at -4 or less, 4-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5 points.
2 Star Selection
Arkansas Little Rock (+13 1/2) over WESTERN KENTUCKY
31-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Western Kentucky is now just 13-40-2 ATS in conference games after a victory under coach Darrin Horn after relaxing with a big lead in what turned out to be a 9 point home win over a horrible Arkansas State team that was without their All-Sun Belt star Adrian Banks. The Hilltoppers are even more likely to letdown following a comfortable win, as they are just 6-34-2 ATS in Sun Belt games after winning by 5 points or more, including an incredible 1-26-2 ATS if facing a team that is 1 game below .500 or better (0-26-2 ATS if not an underdog of more than 2 points). Arkansas Little Rock is 14-6 and the Trojans have a history under coach Steve Shields of playing their best against the better teams in the league. ALR is 22-12 ATS as a regular season underdog in conference play, including 13-2 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of greater than .600. The Trojans have only been a double-digit dog twice in league play under Shields and they covered easily both times (lost by 4 points in each game). My ratings favor Western Kentucky by 13 ? points, but the Hilltoppers have been 3 ? points worse the last 5 years under Horn in conference games after a win and I?ll take Arkansas Little Rock in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
2-Stars at +13 or more.
Opinion
Arizona State (+13 ?) over UCLA
31-Jan-08 07:30 PM Pacific Time
Arizona State is the surprise team of the Pac-10 and the Sun Devils are still a bit underrated heading into this clash with highly ranked UCLA. Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in Pac-10 play this season and the Sun Devils are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a conference dog of 5 points or more. UCLA has been a good bet in general under coach Ben Howland (82-59-1 ATS), but the Bruins are just 3-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 10 points against fellow Pac-10 teams, including 0-2 ATS this season. My ratings only favor UCLA by 12 points in this game and ASU would apply to a very good 116-41-4 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation if they become an underdog of 14 points or more. I?ll lean with ASU at +13 or +13 ? points and I?ll take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
OPINION - 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more only.
COLLEGE
4 Star Selection
Wisconsin Milwaukee (-2 ?) over DETROIT
31-Jan-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Detroit has lost 13 games in a row and things aren?t likely to get any better tonight against an underrated Milwaukee squad that is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS since kicking a few players off the team in mid-December. The players that are left all play with passion and they have responded to coach Rob Jeter?s disciplinary actions against those former players. My ratings favor Wisconsin Milwaukee by 6 points and Detroit applies to a very negative 18-75-5 ATS situation. Milwaukee?s only bad game with their current rotation was a 2 point home win over Detroit, but that close call will assure that they do not take this game for granted. Also, the fact the Milwaukee won that game despite shooting a horrendous 32% from the field and 22% from 3-point range suggests just how much of an advantage that they have over the Titans. The line of 2 ? points on this game is based on using all of Wisconsin-Milwaukee?s games for the season, but the Panthers are clearly a better team with their current roster than they were before the dismissals. I?ll take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 4-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, for 3- Stars from -4 ? to -6 points and for 2-Stars at -6 ? points.
4-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars from -4 1/2 to -6, 2-Stars at -6 1/2.
3 Star Selection
Minnesota (-2 1/2) over MICHIGAN
31-Jan-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Apparently the oddsmakers have lost faith in Minnesota after 3 straight games in which the Gophers lost and failed to cover the spread. Those losses to Indiana, Michigan State and Ohio State simply showed me that Minnesota continues not to be good enough to beat good teams. However, those losses certainly don?t indicate that the Gophers can?t still beat the likes of a 5-13 Michigan team that is just 1-9 in their last 10 games (with the one win coming against lowly Northwestern). Minnesota is now 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS against the best 6 teams that they faced (Florida State, UNLV, Michigan State (twice), Indiana, and Ohio State), all of which are going to be playing in the NIT or NCAA Tournament this season. The Gophers are 12-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS (the only spread loss in a 17 point win as a 19 ? point favorite) against the 12 teams that they?ve faced that aren?t likely to see post-season action - and Michigan can be added to that list of mediocre and bad teams. Minnesota has played two road games against teams of Michigan?s caliber (actually a bit better than Michigan) and the Gophers won those games by 10 points at Iowa State and by 3 points at Penn State. Michigan, meanwhile, has their 5 wins against Radford, Brown, Eastern Washington, Oakland, and Northwestern, and the best of those teams (Oakland) is about 7 points worse than Minnesota. Aside from the line value (my ratings favor Minnesota by 4 ?) the Gophers apply to a 62-23-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and a 53-17-3 ATS bounce-back situation that are both set up by their recent string of losses to good teams. I?ll take Minnesota in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, for 4-Stars at -2 or less and for 2- Stars at -4 ? or -5 points.
3-Stars at -4 or less, 4-Stars at -2 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5 points.
2 Star Selection
Arkansas Little Rock (+13 1/2) over WESTERN KENTUCKY
31-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Western Kentucky is now just 13-40-2 ATS in conference games after a victory under coach Darrin Horn after relaxing with a big lead in what turned out to be a 9 point home win over a horrible Arkansas State team that was without their All-Sun Belt star Adrian Banks. The Hilltoppers are even more likely to letdown following a comfortable win, as they are just 6-34-2 ATS in Sun Belt games after winning by 5 points or more, including an incredible 1-26-2 ATS if facing a team that is 1 game below .500 or better (0-26-2 ATS if not an underdog of more than 2 points). Arkansas Little Rock is 14-6 and the Trojans have a history under coach Steve Shields of playing their best against the better teams in the league. ALR is 22-12 ATS as a regular season underdog in conference play, including 13-2 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of greater than .600. The Trojans have only been a double-digit dog twice in league play under Shields and they covered easily both times (lost by 4 points in each game). My ratings favor Western Kentucky by 13 ? points, but the Hilltoppers have been 3 ? points worse the last 5 years under Horn in conference games after a win and I?ll take Arkansas Little Rock in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
2-Stars at +13 or more.
Opinion
Arizona State (+13 ?) over UCLA
31-Jan-08 07:30 PM Pacific Time
Arizona State is the surprise team of the Pac-10 and the Sun Devils are still a bit underrated heading into this clash with highly ranked UCLA. Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in Pac-10 play this season and the Sun Devils are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a conference dog of 5 points or more. UCLA has been a good bet in general under coach Ben Howland (82-59-1 ATS), but the Bruins are just 3-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 10 points against fellow Pac-10 teams, including 0-2 ATS this season. My ratings only favor UCLA by 12 points in this game and ASU would apply to a very good 116-41-4 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation if they become an underdog of 14 points or more. I?ll lean with ASU at +13 or +13 ? points and I?ll take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
OPINION - 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more only.
spritzer--
direct line................ill-chic
ko...........................nevada
tko..................wisc-milw
tko.........................jacksille st
tko...................minn
5 star tv beatdown gow........notre dame
tko................pistons
5 star linecrusher...................spurs
cokin--
fat man plays............west kentucky, suns
champ club.......................nevada
window.........................wash st
under the hat.............west kentucky
3 star.........................minn
3 star.....................fordham
3 star.....................suns
feist--
personal best.....................north ariz
steam...........................notre dame
steam...............................duke
inner circle.........................indy
inner circle.........................idaho st
5 star........................bc
4 star......................wisc gb
3 star.........................youngstown st
total........................cavs over
inner circle.....................pistons
5 star............................mavs
direct line................ill-chic
ko...........................nevada
tko..................wisc-milw
tko.........................jacksille st
tko...................minn
5 star tv beatdown gow........notre dame
tko................pistons
5 star linecrusher...................spurs
cokin--
fat man plays............west kentucky, suns
champ club.......................nevada
window.........................wash st
under the hat.............west kentucky
3 star.........................minn
3 star.....................fordham
3 star.....................suns
feist--
personal best.....................north ariz
steam...........................notre dame
steam...............................duke
inner circle.........................indy
inner circle.........................idaho st
5 star........................bc
4 star......................wisc gb
3 star.........................youngstown st
total........................cavs over
inner circle.....................pistons
5 star............................mavs
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
:mj16: I've been fading AR. When I saw that he had a GOM, I doubled down against it. He's pressing obviously. I've been making a lot by going against him and it's been a blessing. GL.
3-0 yesterday
1-0 double up today with CSF pending.
3-0 yesterday
1-0 double up today with CSF pending.
------- MY PLAYS FOR TODAY -------
---CBB---------------
(7*) MINNESOTA--------------(WINNER)
(7*) NEVADA-------------------(WINNER)
(7*) WISCONSIN--------------(WINNER)
(6*) N TEXAS------------------(WINNER)
(6*) MURRAY ST--------------(LOSER)
---NBA---------------
(8*) LAKERS/PISTONS: OVER---------(LOSER)
---NHL---------------
(6*) ISLANDERS--------------------(LOSER)
1-10* (104-82-5)
***************************************
(4-3 TODAY) (108-85-5 OVERALL)
---CBB---------------
(7*) MINNESOTA--------------(WINNER)
(7*) NEVADA-------------------(WINNER)
(7*) WISCONSIN--------------(WINNER)
(6*) N TEXAS------------------(WINNER)
(6*) MURRAY ST--------------(LOSER)
---NBA---------------
(8*) LAKERS/PISTONS: OVER---------(LOSER)
---NHL---------------
(6*) ISLANDERS--------------------(LOSER)
1-10* (104-82-5)
***************************************
(4-3 TODAY) (108-85-5 OVERALL)
WOW.....rough night. Couple teams blew covers in the second the half, one pick covered if you jumped on them later in the day and a couple just bad choices on my part.
****BOOTLEGS PERSONAL PLAYS******
-----NBA-------
(7*) PHOENIX -7.5--------------(LOSER)
-----CBB--------
(8*) CS NORTHRIDGE -8.5-----(LOSER)
(8*) MINNESOTA -3--------------(WINNER)
(8*) DENVER -4.5-----------------(WINNER)
(7*) UL LAFAYETTE -7.5--------(LOSER)
(7*) NORTHERN ARIZONA -1.5---(LOSER)
(6*) CHATTANOOGA -5.5---------(LOSER)
(5*) NOTRE DAME -8--------------(LOSER)
(5*) SOUTH ALABAMA -3---------(LOSER)
(1-10 UNIT PLAYS)
2 - 7 TODAY -29 UNITS
OVERALL
17 - 15 - 1
+11 UNITS
****BOOTLEGS PERSONAL PLAYS******
-----NBA-------
(7*) PHOENIX -7.5--------------(LOSER)
-----CBB--------
(8*) CS NORTHRIDGE -8.5-----(LOSER)
(8*) MINNESOTA -3--------------(WINNER)
(8*) DENVER -4.5-----------------(WINNER)
(7*) UL LAFAYETTE -7.5--------(LOSER)
(7*) NORTHERN ARIZONA -1.5---(LOSER)
(6*) CHATTANOOGA -5.5---------(LOSER)
(5*) NOTRE DAME -8--------------(LOSER)
(5*) SOUTH ALABAMA -3---------(LOSER)
(1-10 UNIT PLAYS)
2 - 7 TODAY -29 UNITS
OVERALL
17 - 15 - 1
+11 UNITS