FERRINGO
4.5-Unit Play. Take #779 Penn State (+1.5) over Northwestern (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
This one was going to be my GOTW but I've backed up, perhaps foolishly, because I was expecting at least a little sharp money to push the line back to a Pick. Regardless, I still think this line is an outright mistake. It's a total overreaction to the return of Northwestern's leading scorer from '06-'07, Kevin Coble, who has only practiced twice and may not even see any serious action. The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won seven of their last 10 games against the Wildcats. Northwestern has won four straight, with three of the four wins coming against some of the worst teams in Div. I. This is also only Northwestern?s second game since Dec. 9. I?m looking for a lot of rust. On the flip side, Penn State has played four games since then and won them all by an average of 19 points. Penn State has struggled on the road this season but their four losses all came against teams that are competing for postseason berths ? teams like St. Joe?s, Central Florida, and South Carolina. I think PSU is a much, much better team here and neither home court nor some emotion will be able to make up this talent disparity.
3-Unit Play. Take #772 New Orleans (-5) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
Uh-oh. This one could get ugly. We have a much more talented and focused home team taking on an inferior conference opponent and I smell a double-digit win. New Orleans has beaten N.C. State, Tulane, and Colorado on the road and handled a better Arkansas State team than this A-LR club at home. Little Rock has dropped its last two ? both on the road ? and I think they are going to get smoked here. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #749 Duquesne (-5.5) over Bowling Green (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
The Dukes are an overwhelming offensive force and I don?t think that Bowling Green will be able to hold up. The Falcons have lost to Northern Colorado and Western Carolina for chrissakes. Bowling Green faced a team that likes to try a similar style this year ? Temple ? and got hammered by 15 at home. I?m looking for a similar beating. The Dukes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games and the Falcons are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. The Dukes haven?t lost to a team outside of the RPI Top 40. Bowling Green is No. 287. Duquesne?s last six wins have come over teams rated higher than BG and they have come by and average 17.1 points. There?s also a common opponent ? Oakland ? which Duquesne beat by 15 on the road and BG lost to by 10. Look, the line is off. Nothing more to say. Should be a beat down.
2-Unit Play. Take #742 Northeastern (-1.5) over Towson (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
Northeastern has won four of five over Towson and I think they bounce back from a tough second half against Syracuse to score a road win here. The Huskies are 17-5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as a road chalk. I think they pick apart the more undisciplined Tigers here.
2.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #777 Indiana (-6) over Iowa (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
2-Unit Play. Take #777 Indiana (-10.5) over Iowa (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 2)
I think this line should be about five points higher. The Hawkeyes are awful this year and I think that the Hoosiers are going to want to make a statement in their Big 10 opener. Indiana has beaten Illinois State, Southern Illinois, and Kentucky ? three teams that are better than Iowa ? by an average of 15 points. The Hoosiers haven?t covered in seven straight tries against Iowa but those were much, much less talented teams than this one. The road team is 10-4 ATS in the series and I think Indiana blows the doors open early.