Bobby Maxwell
Bobby Maxwell
800-Unit NFL Primetime Pushover - JAGUARS
This is the game everyone is looking forward to, the undefeated Patriots against the red-hot Jaguars. This game has been analyzed to death all week and we know the Jags need to control the ball with their running game and try to limit the touches the Pats' offense gets.
Jacksonville comes in off a dramatic 31-29 win in the wildcard game against Pittsburgh last week as they got a 25-yard FG in the final minute to advance. The Jags defense sacked QB Ben Roethlisberger six times, held the Steelers to 43 yards rushing and picked off three passes.
So the Jags' defense knows it can do it, but has to step up even more tonight. They've got to pressure New England QB Tom Brady and not let him stand back there and pick apart the secondary.
Jacksonville is on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll and on the road they are 7-2 ATS this season. And the Jags seem to thrive as an underdog, going 5-2 as a road 'dog and 15-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
And we know the Pats offense is the best in the league and all about the records set by Brady and WR Randy Moss. But let's focus on what this team did down the stretch. It seems like teams started to figure them out as the Patriots went just 1-5 ATS in its last six games, all as a double-digit favorite.
The Jags know how to run the ball and they do it well with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Patriots give up 4.5 yards per carry. I think the Jags will control the time of possession and keep the Patriots' offense off the field.
We don't expect the Jags to win and we don't need them to. Stay inside of two touchdowns and we're going to cash a ticket. Play Jacksonville.
200-Unit NFL No-Doubter - PACKERS
We weren't big believers in this Green Bay team early in the season, but when they developed a running game late in the season thanks to RB Ryan Grant, we became believers.
We also believe this team will rise up and beat old friend Mike Holmgren today. It'll be a close game as the Packers work out some kinks in the first half. But a key INT or two in the second half will make things easy for Favre & Co. on the offensive side of the ball as they score a 10-point win today.
The Green Bay offense is in the NFL's top five in total yards (370.7), passing yards (270.9) and scoring at 27.2 points per game. Favre completed 66.5 percent of his throws, the best percentage of his career, and Donald Driver had 1,048 receiving yards.
But it was the addition of Grant and his emergence late in the year that made this team a real Super Bowl threat. He finished the season with 956 rushing yards and eight TDs.
Now on the friendly turf of Lambeau field, the Packers went 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS this season. As a favorite this year the Packers were 7-2-1 ATS and 8-1-1 in non-division games. Dating back to last season, Green Bay is 13-3-1 ATS and 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 against NFC teams.
And a major reason we are going against the Seahawks is their horrible road record. Seattle went just 3-5 SU and ATS on the highway this season and going back to 2005, the Seahawks are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road outings.
It'll be cold, we know that, but the Packers have the better all-around offense and a quick defense that will make life miserable for Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck. Look for a big second half as the Packers pull away for the 10-point win. Play Green Bay.
200-Unit College Marquee Matchup - WASHINGTON STATE
Washington State is for real. If the Cougars perfect 14-0 record hadn't proved that to you already, Thursday's win over Southern Cal should have.
Washington State is known for its defense and ability to milk the clock but when Thursday's game turned into a slugfest with the Trojans, the Cougars had no problem, scoring a 73-58 win as a 1 1/2-point underdog. Now we get all these points? We'll gladly take them.
Washington State has already proven they are road tested, beating rival Washington 56-52 as a 3 1/2-point chalk last Saturday. The Cougars are 9-0 on the road and have cashed tickets the last six times they've hit the highway. And in four of their last five trips to UCLA, the Cougars have covered the spread.
UCLA can play defense so look for this to be a low-scoring affair, and at Pauley Pavilion, the Bruins are just 4-4 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS in the last five.
In this series, the road team has gotten the ATS win in the last seven meetings.
Again, we don't need the Cougars to win the game to cash our bet, but we wouldn't be surprised if they pulled out a last-minute victory. Grab the points and play Washington State in this one.
100-Unit College Hoops Bonus Play - FULLERTON
Score, score, score - it's what Cal State Fullerton does well and it's why we have no problem laying the chalk with the Titans in this one.
Fullerton has scored 76 or more points in all but one of their last 10 games and are on a 5-0 ATS run that includes three straight home wins and covers.
And against Santa Barbara, Fullerton has won six of the last seven meetings and scored a 79-73 win at home last February. Fullerton is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven against the Gauchos and have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four home matchups.
Santa Barbara has struggled lately, losing two straight, including a 66-63 loss at UC Irvine as one-point underdogs.
Fullerton puts up 89.1 points a game at home and shoots an amazing 53.1 percent from the floor. They do give up 73.9 points per home game but that's because they like to get up and down the floor.
Santa Barbara is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine road games. They just don't perform well on the highway and will get run out of Titan Gym in this one. Play the home team Titans and don't worry about laying the chalk.