Dr Bob paid and confirmed
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COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Texas (-1) over MISSOURI
12-Jan-08 10:30 AM Pacific Time
Texas has some impressive wins this season, as the Longhorns beat Tennessee by 19 points on a neutral floor and are the only team to beat UCLA (they won that game at Pauley Pavilion). The Horns also lost to Michigan State by 6 points and to Wisconsin by 1 point at home, but Rick Barnes? team obviously belongs among the top 10 teams in the nation. Missouri, meanwhile, has beaten up on bad teams with their fast paced 3 guard attack, but the Tigers have struggled when facing good teams. Missouri is 0-5 straight up against teams that are potential NCAA Tournament teams, losing to Michigan State, Arkansas, California, Illinois, and Mississippi State. The best team that the Tigers have beaten this season is Purdue, who is destined to finish in the bottom half of a weak Big 10 conference this year. Missouri?s overall rating is artificially high because they?ve won by bigger margins than expected against bad teams. Texas has taken it easy on weaker teams, while proving themselves against good teams, so their rating isn?t considerably higher than Missouri?s rating. Using all games played by both teams equally would result in a fair line of pick, but my ratings give more weight to games against quality teams when today?s opponent is a quality team and those weighted ratings favor Texas by 3 ? points. Texas played well in their pre-conference schedule but they should improve now that they?re in conference play, as has always been the case under coach Rick Barnes. Since Barnes has been the head coach the Longhorns are 43-44-1 ATS in regular season non-conference games and 86-53-5 ATS against Big 12 opponents, including 75-38-4 ATS when not favored by more than 13 points (60-25-1 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .800 or less). In addition to the team trend, Texas applies to a decent 40-15-1 ATS well rested road favorite angle (Texas has had a week to prepare for this game). I?ll take Texas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 or better and for 2-Stars at -2 ? or -3 points.
3-Stars at -2 or better, 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3 points.
2 Star Selection
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (+14 ?) over BUTLER
12-Jan-08 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is now 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS since dismissing top scorer and rebounder Torre Johnson and Tim Flowers for conduct detrimental to the team, as the remaining players have bonded and started playing with more intensity. I took advantage of that with a 3-Star Best Bet on the Panthers in their upset of Valparaiso as a double-digit dog and they are getting double-digits again today. Milwaukee?s rating in their last 6 games is 15 points higher than it was in their first 9 games against Division 1 foes and while they may not continue to play as well as they are now, they are certainly better than their overall season rating. Using all games for the entire season would yield a fair line of 15 ? points, so the oddsmakers still are not adjusting for Milwaukee?s current form. Butler has once again cooled off with the start of conference play after looking very good in their non-conference games. The Bulldogs are a difficult team to play if you?re not used to seeing them, which explains why they are now 57-30-1 ATS against non-conference opponents the last 8 seasons and just 54-69-6 ATS against conference foes that are more familiar with the way Butler plays. New Butler coach Brad Stevens was an assistant coach for the Bulldogs for the previous 7 years before taking over this season Stevens has maintained the same style of play. The trends have stayed intact as well, as Butler is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season and 0-5 ATS in conference play. Over the years Butler has played an average of 4.5 points worse in conference games than they have in non-conference games (9 points worse this year) and the Bulldogs are only 29-47-4 ATS in conference games after a victory the last 7 seasons (0-5 ATS this season). My ratings, using Milwaukee?s last 6 games only, favor Butler by just 8 ? points and that?s without adjusting for Butler not being as good against fellow Horizon League teams. Milwaukee is probably not as good as they?ve been in their last 6 games, but they are significantly better than their season rating and there is still plenty of value in favor the Panthers. I?d make a fair line of Butler by 9 ? points in this game and I?ll take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
2-Stars at +14 or more.
3 Star Selection
Northeastern (+10) over GEORGE MASON
12-Jan-08 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Northeastern is coming off an impressive 79-45 home win over Drexel and that wins sets up the Huskies in a 20-1 ATS subset of an 85-28-1 ATS road underdog momentum situation. Northeastern is 4-2 ATS as a road underdog this season while George Mason is just 3-6 ATS when favored. My ratings favor George Mason by 8 ? points, so the line is fair, and I?ll take Northeastern in a 3-Star Best Bet at 9 or more and for 2-Stars at +8 ? o +8 points.
3-Stars at +9 or more, 2-Stars at +8 1/2 or +8.
2 Star Selection
OHIO (-3 1/2) over Miami-Ohio
12-Jan-08 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Both of these teams are slumping, as Ohio has dropped 5 straight pointspread decisions and is coming off a loss while Miami-Ohio is 0- 3 straight up and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. Ohio is more likely to bounce back at home, as the Bobcats are 27-11 ATS at home after a loss and an incredible 20-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 3 points under coach Tim O?Shea. Ohio also applies to a very strong 41-3 ATS home bounce-back situation while Miami applies to a 37-73-5 ATS negative momentum situation. My ratings favor Ohio by 3 points, so the line is fair, and I?ll take Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ? or -4 points.
2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2 Star Selection
Georgia Southern (-12) over CITADEL
12-Jan-08 11:00 AM Pacific Time
The Citadel is once again a horrible team and the Bulldogs are routinely beaten up on their home court, as reflected by their 6-14- 1 ATS mark on this floor. Georgia Southern applies to a 132-55-4 ATS big road favorite situation today and the Eagles are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 3 of those came against The Citadel. The line on this game is more than fair (I favor Georgia Southern by 12 ? points) and I?ll take Georgia Southern in a 2- Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.
2-Stars at -12 or less
