Soccer 2017 January - May
- Thread starter PittsburghKid
- Start date
+401.1* on year!! No harm no foul on united +1. DZ my thinking at the time was the following. It was already defensive and United withstood an early flurry. They were getting more comfortable I thought with game moving towards midfield play. Fellani came in with even more intent to play D. I thought my Chelsea on 3 wAy line may lose because of a draw. I saw a 1-0 game either way if it was not scoreless. Figured taking United gave me a chance to buy back Chelsea AND possibly win Chelsea and push United which did happen. In the end it was a 2-0 day with Chelsea and under with a push on United +1.
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Always nice to start the week with a winner!
Champions League
Juventus -150. Juventus does not lose at home. They have not lost a Champions league game at home in four years and have not lost in all competitions in a year and a half. This would be a max play for me (of course the line would be higher) if they were not already up 2-0. We get the added benefit of Porto not being at their best on the road. I simply do not see Juve losing this game.
Leicester +215. Over the last two years I have made more money betting on or against Leicester than any other team. This team's confidence is back, they are rested, at home and got that very important late away goal in Sevilla. They sit in a much better situation now in the league and a win here erases a lot of the disappointment of this season. I believe they will be at their best tomorrow and win this match. Plus we get them at a very good value at +215. My site does not have the advance line up yet, I assume it will be around +275. Unlike the Dortmund game last week, I think the best play is to play the money line as the primary play.
I am also playing some Monaco Ov 3.5 -110 right now and will likely add more after tomorrows' game, but I expect this line to go much higher the closer we get to the game.
Champions League
Juventus -150. Juventus does not lose at home. They have not lost a Champions league game at home in four years and have not lost in all competitions in a year and a half. This would be a max play for me (of course the line would be higher) if they were not already up 2-0. We get the added benefit of Porto not being at their best on the road. I simply do not see Juve losing this game.
Leicester +215. Over the last two years I have made more money betting on or against Leicester than any other team. This team's confidence is back, they are rested, at home and got that very important late away goal in Sevilla. They sit in a much better situation now in the league and a win here erases a lot of the disappointment of this season. I believe they will be at their best tomorrow and win this match. Plus we get them at a very good value at +215. My site does not have the advance line up yet, I assume it will be around +275. Unlike the Dortmund game last week, I think the best play is to play the money line as the primary play.
I am also playing some Monaco Ov 3.5 -110 right now and will likely add more after tomorrows' game, but I expect this line to go much higher the closer we get to the game.
Champions League
Champions League
Bason Love the insights as usual and you may have talked me off the spread with Porto. They played in 1st leg and was scoreless til red card. was thinking they could do the same?
I am not sold on Leicester with this either because Sevilla is a really good side.. BTW bason to advance Leicester is +280 on 5D
I think the best value in this tie for me is the FH with Leicester. The King Power will be rocking like last year with first and maybe last every champions league match. This means the first half will be maximum effort and in my opinion
Leicester FH PK, +.5 15* to win 10* for those not familiar how this works, half your bet is on the PK and half on the +.5 so breaking it down if the match is tied at half you risked 7.5* to win 5*
Leicester/sevilla BOTH to score 3.2* to win 2*
On Wednesday I dont see much in atletico bayern match up. atletico will advance and doubt the game itself is worth a play
I could see monaco as nice value to advance at +400. will def play them on the PK as of now.. will wait though
Welcome any thoughts!
Champions League
Bason Love the insights as usual and you may have talked me off the spread with Porto. They played in 1st leg and was scoreless til red card. was thinking they could do the same?
I am not sold on Leicester with this either because Sevilla is a really good side.. BTW bason to advance Leicester is +280 on 5D
I think the best value in this tie for me is the FH with Leicester. The King Power will be rocking like last year with first and maybe last every champions league match. This means the first half will be maximum effort and in my opinion
Leicester FH PK, +.5 15* to win 10* for those not familiar how this works, half your bet is on the PK and half on the +.5 so breaking it down if the match is tied at half you risked 7.5* to win 5*
Leicester/sevilla BOTH to score 3.2* to win 2*
On Wednesday I dont see much in atletico bayern match up. atletico will advance and doubt the game itself is worth a play
I could see monaco as nice value to advance at +400. will def play them on the PK as of now.. will wait though
Welcome any thoughts!
Got it and thanks for the response. In the end I'll take the win on Chelsea ML, but I think I would have hit the 2H line on Chelsea had I not seen your post, knowing they were a man up. Even after Chelsea scored early, I was happy I didn't play the 2H on a few occasions because it looked like Man U had some easy opportunities to score, which they obviously didn't take advantage of. Anyway, thanks for the winner. Can't believe I didn't see the under bet. I would have played that too, but just scrolled by it. Looking forward to Champions league tomorrow and Weds. My leans are as follows:
Sevilla/Leicester DRAW (I see 1-1 here)
Juve -1/2
Monaco/Man City OVER (I think we'll see more fireworks)
Atletico/Leverkusen UNDER
My final plays will factor in your's, as well as Bason's plays. Thanks as always. Appreciate the winners!
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DZ I posted my plays for tomorrow above
Does anyone think Chelsea +200 to win FA cup is worth a play?I think it does. not right now because I dont see any of those odds changing til closer to semis and I have tons tied up in futures but just gauging opinion?
Does anyone think Chelsea +200 to win FA cup is worth a play?I think it does. not right now because I dont see any of those odds changing til closer to semis and I have tons tied up in futures but just gauging opinion?
Kid, I agree but Porto was at home where they are a totally different team. I played Juve in the second half of that game only because of the red card. I could be wrong here as Porto is forced to attack, but Juve may be the best home team in the world right now, I simply do not think they will lose. Also expect that line to go up overnight.
I also think Sevilla is the better team, I just have a feeling Leicester pulls this out and I like the odds.
I also think Sevilla is the better team, I just have a feeling Leicester pulls this out and I like the odds.
Looks like I was wrong on the line movement as I see Juventus at -145 now after it was -135 very early this morning. Seems to be some Porto love since Juve won 2-0 in Porto. Sticking to my guns here as I expect Juve to counter and take this game.
Leicester is +275 to advance, but I am sticking to the the +215 for the game. No reason to be greedy.
Is it just me or are these 2 weeks with the time zone change differences maddening. I think it gets worse as you get older. Just change the damn clocks at the same time, or better yet, get rid of the whole damn thing!!
Leicester is +275 to advance, but I am sticking to the the +215 for the game. No reason to be greedy.
Is it just me or are these 2 weeks with the time zone change differences maddening. I think it gets worse as you get older. Just change the damn clocks at the same time, or better yet, get rid of the whole damn thing!!
Leicester first half is a winner!! Scooped all 10* with the 1-0 lead at half.. if Sevilla scores we scoop the other 2* if not still a nice positive day. Not sure if Leicester can keep it up but knew the first half would be there's to lose.. going to watch 2nd half for enjoyment and see if any in game bets arise
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Sammy Nasri is an idiot. Why put yourself in that position at all when your team has possession and is probing the opponents box with pressure ?
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+407.9* on year.. didn't win both teams score but can't say Sevilla didn't have their chances. Props to Leicester and bason who was all over them. Magic is back, hope they pull someone besides man city in quarters. I should have not been a wuss and took them for game and to advance but alas felt strongly only about FH which won so can't complain. I'll say it again if you are a better and you're not betting soccer you're losing out. It is the most value out there.
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Thanks Kid. Leicester was a big play for me today as I kept adding to it during the day as the odds dropped and they came out and performed well. Juve game ended up as expected, so a very, very good day. Expecting more of the same tomorrow which I will post shortly.
I am following Bobby on the Tigres play this evening.
I am following Bobby on the Tigres play this evening.
Wednesday
Monaco PK 2.2* to win 2*
Not really but into either game but can see Monaco winning on the night but going home..
I have lost some futures in past week that I will get into my record above this weekend. Just saw in my accounts and reminded me to update on here.
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Monaco PK 2.2* to win 2*
Not really but into either game but can see Monaco winning on the night but going home..
I have lost some futures in past week that I will get into my record above this weekend. Just saw in my accounts and reminded me to update on here.
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Following today's 2-0 big day with hopefully another tomorrow:
Monaco Ov 3 -155 (current line, I played some at Ov 3.5 -110 yesterday). Monaco is fantastic at home. They have lost 1 and drew only once out of the last 23 games at home. Many were introduced to their fast attacking style in the last match and they will do the same here trying to get early goals. They will score but they also do not have the defense to keep a 2-0 type lead. City has the lead, but they are not a team that can sit back and park the bus. It is not their style nor their coaches. As such, they will score. I will be very surprised if this game does not see at least 4 goals. I think Monaco actually has a chance to advance and I may play that once I see the line, but the strong play for me is the Ov 3.
Atletico -165. This is very similar to the Juve play today with an added twist: Leverkusen is a mess. Most of you know I follow the German leagues very closely. Leverkusen has a new coach that was hired too late in the season. They did not respond very well to him last week at home. They are a poor road team. Two starters plus Kiesling are out for this match. The owner even said this week that they will regroup after this week's game. I don't believe they think they have any chance to advance so I do not expect an A effort from them. Atletico will play their game and play for the result at home. They have been somewhat suspect at home this year, but 3 of their 4 losses have been to Barca and Real. Their defense it too good and they will counter. I am playing half my bet now and will wait for the overnight move to play the rest (I played the rest at 8:15 this morning at -165, the line jumped to -190 just after 9:00, I don't think it will matter but that is a big move and I am even adding some more)
I just went in to place my Ov bet and I got it at Ov 3 -155. Not sure why under money is coming in, but I am hitting this and most of my money is on this line. Don't mind laying the juice so I don't lose with 3 goals. I doubt this line will last thru the night.
Monaco Ov 3 -155 (current line, I played some at Ov 3.5 -110 yesterday). Monaco is fantastic at home. They have lost 1 and drew only once out of the last 23 games at home. Many were introduced to their fast attacking style in the last match and they will do the same here trying to get early goals. They will score but they also do not have the defense to keep a 2-0 type lead. City has the lead, but they are not a team that can sit back and park the bus. It is not their style nor their coaches. As such, they will score. I will be very surprised if this game does not see at least 4 goals. I think Monaco actually has a chance to advance and I may play that once I see the line, but the strong play for me is the Ov 3.
Atletico -165. This is very similar to the Juve play today with an added twist: Leverkusen is a mess. Most of you know I follow the German leagues very closely. Leverkusen has a new coach that was hired too late in the season. They did not respond very well to him last week at home. They are a poor road team. Two starters plus Kiesling are out for this match. The owner even said this week that they will regroup after this week's game. I don't believe they think they have any chance to advance so I do not expect an A effort from them. Atletico will play their game and play for the result at home. They have been somewhat suspect at home this year, but 3 of their 4 losses have been to Barca and Real. Their defense it too good and they will counter. I am playing half my bet now and will wait for the overnight move to play the rest (I played the rest at 8:15 this morning at -165, the line jumped to -190 just after 9:00, I don't think it will matter but that is a big move and I am even adding some more)
I just went in to place my Ov bet and I got it at Ov 3 -155. Not sure why under money is coming in, but I am hitting this and most of my money is on this line. Don't mind laying the juice so I don't lose with 3 goals. I doubt this line will last thru the night.
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Someone pointed out that my pick thread for today is a little confusing given the may edits I made to it.
Edits were made due to line changes, but bottom line is that I am on the Over in the Monaco game at 3.5 and 3. I am also all over Atletico Madrid at -165 as well as -190 which is the current line. I prefer to lay the lumber here versus playing the -1.
Sorry for the confusion, but I try to post the games at the lines I played since I think that is helpful. Maybe I should do separate posts versus editing. I am around all day today if anyone has any questions.
Edits were made due to line changes, but bottom line is that I am on the Over in the Monaco game at 3.5 and 3. I am also all over Atletico Madrid at -165 as well as -190 which is the current line. I prefer to lay the lumber here versus playing the -1.
Sorry for the confusion, but I try to post the games at the lines I played since I think that is helpful. Maybe I should do separate posts versus editing. I am around all day today if anyone has any questions.
Good point about the time difference change. Very frustrating for lots of reasons.....I do a lot of business in Europe and bet on lots of European events and have lots of friends and family in England...its vey annoying.
Yesterday I had Leicester to qualify in 90 mins at 10/3. Great to see that penalty missed!!! Oh, to be on the right side of a missed penalty.
Yesterday I had Leicester to qualify in 90 mins at 10/3. Great to see that penalty missed!!! Oh, to be on the right side of a missed penalty.
