Soccer 2018 January-May

[BASON]

Nothing today, so had some time to go over CL Final.

Ov 3 -130. Best way to play this one to me and playing before it goes to 3.5 everywhere to get some 3 money in (will likely add some if I get 3.5 +money). Liverpool got here by attacking and I do not think they can change the way they play. They know they have to score to have any chance in this game so I am expecting goals. Putting this in now and will consider FH over later. Real is the better team in my opinion as I still do not think Liverpool is a complete team but I think the over is the better play. Its rare to have a shoot out in these finals but I think we see one here. Will be very surprised if we do not get at least 3 for the push, but think we see 4+.

 

[Subcloser]

1608 Tupi MG (BRA-C) un 2.25 -115
1614 Remo PA (BRA-C) un 2.25 -114

 

[Snafu]

pushing my luck with Grenoble - Bourg-Peronnas +350
and O2? +135

promotion/relegation match, 1st leg, where Grenoble is lower league team and not really a good one, 3rd.
They scored just 33 goals, relegated teams Les Herbiers and Consolat scored 37, bottom of the league Creteil 29. And as you guessed their defence has been decent (vs National teams).
BP has scored decent amount of goals but they have allowed like a lot of goals: 87 in 38 matches.
From stats looks like they are quite an on/off team and fear of relegation just might put them "on".


:0008

 

[Snafu]

O but BP lost after colorful events...

this shouldn't surprise anyone... and it's another reason to stay away from ex-soviet leagues:

Ukraine accuses most professional clubs of match-fixing

AP
Published 10:02 p.m. UTC May 23, 2018
KIEV, Ukraine (AP) ? Ukrainian police have accused most of the country's professional soccer clubs of match-fixing and launched a series of raids as the country prepares to host the Champions League final.

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said 35 clubs took part in betting scams with total profits of about $5 million a year. He added players and referees were threatened or bribed up to 100,000 hryvnya ($3,800) to ensure the correct result in 57 games.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sport...-professional-clubs-of-match-fixing/35251219/

 

[BASON]

I am adding Real Madrid +120 to my CL plays.

I keep going over this game in my head and I keep coming up to the same conclusion: Real, Real, Real. I simply think they are the best team. Hell, I would bet Atletico over Liverpool. I just think Real is the better team and I am getting a good price. Liverpool will have to play a perfect game in my opinion to have any chance to win this one. Tired of reading about Salah, Firmino and Mane. Don't get me wrong, I really like Salah, but do you really think they are better than Ronaldo, a healthy Bale and Benzema. I say no, they are just having a great tournament. Liverpool will have a hard time shutting down Real and I will be surprised if Real does not win this game by more than one goal. Already on the Ov 3 and will likely add at 3.5.

I will post a couple of prop bets also on Saturday. Been lucky with some exact scores lately.

Also will post thoughts on all England promotion finals after I go through them tomorrow.

 

[DZ]

I am adding Real Madrid +120 to my CL plays.

I keep going over this game in my head and I keep coming up to the same conclusion: Real, Real, Real. I simply think they are the best team. Hell, I would bet Atletico over Liverpool. I just think Real is the better team and I am getting a good price. Liverpool will have to play a perfect game in my opinion to have any chance to win this one. Tired of reading about Salah, Firmino and Mane. Don't get me wrong, I really like Salah, but do you really think they are better than Ronaldo, a healthy Bale and Benzema. I say no, they are just having a great tournament. Liverpool will have a hard time shutting down Real and I will be surprised if Real does not win this game by more than one goal. Already on the Ov 3 and will likely add at 3.5.

I will post a couple of prop bets also on Saturday. Been lucky with some exact scores lately.

Also will post thoughts on all England promotion finals after I go through them tomorrow.

Bason, curious as to your thoughts on the 1H. I see 1-1/4 as the prevailing number, hard to find a 1.0, but 1.5 juiced to the under is available. These big cup finals tend to start pretty cagey as the teams feel each other out early on. My feeling is that the scoring tends to open up around the 30' mark and then some more in the 2H. I'm not necessarily suggesting a 1H under, but I think the scoring opportunities will be more prevalent in the 2H. If this is the case, it might make sense for some one with access to live wagering to wait 10-15' to make a live play on the over, maybe even see if we're sitting on 1 goal at the half and play over 2 goals in the 2H. Wondering what your thoughts are on this. Do you think both teams, or at least Liverpool, come out aggressive early and maybe force Real into more of an attacking mindset on the counter? What is your feeling about whether or not we see an early goal in this one?...say within the first 15 minutes. I'm inclined to at least watch the first 5-10 minutes without a play on the total to see how they break from the gate and maybe you can get a little better price on the over 3 with live wagering.

Thanks and gl

Also, if I'm going exact score, I'd go with Real 3-1 and 3-2 at 14/1 and 18/1 respectively.
A solid prop along the lines of your thinking might be Real/ov2.5 +185, although the payout is not as high as I'd hope with that one.

 

[BASON]

I will start by saying that I simply do not trust Liverpool's defense at all. I also think it will be hard for Klopp to change his teams tactics. I do, however, agree that they will be more conservative in the first 15-20 minutes of the game. People tend to forget that Real can play defense. I can not stand Ramos but he is a seasoned and experienced player that will lead this defense. This game could be more low scoring than I think it will be, but with the firepower both teams have, there is no way I would consider any kind of under bet. My guess is that once the first goal is scored, more will come quickly, so I agree that waiting for that first one may be a good move if you bet in-game.

I am not a fan of in-game betting for soccer. I will only do it if I have no other action on the game. If fact, I only in-game bet in other sports if I have no other action or my play has absolutely no chance of winning. More often than not, I see people tie themselves up with in game action in direct conflict with pre-game action.

If the first half is low scoring, I will likely hit the second half over hard unless the play in the first half tells me otherwise. I will leave some dry powder for that possible play or a hedge if Liverpool is surprisingly playing great defense or not attacking like I expect.

In the end, I would not be surprised to see 5+ goals in this game. I know that is extremely unusual and maybe even unlikely, but if I were Klopp, I would do what got me here and that is attack, attack, attack and score. Put Real on the defensive and do not let them dominate possession. If he decides to play the other way, I think Real will break them down, eventually score and then the game will have to open up. This is why I think 3 is a good floor for goals in this one.

Hopefully I am right since this will be my last larger play before the WC begins!

 

[Snafu]

This will be like Germany - Brazil four years ago. All and their grandmams were on Brazil because... ehhh .. they are Brazil ? Pool was lucky to survive AS Roma...

And none of Liverpool opening 11 players would be in opening 11 of Real Madrid.

None.

Only way i see this going 'pool's way is, they can keep score even and hope late goal/pk's.

I'm thinking
RM
to win +122
-1? +270
-2 +580

1st H
RM
to win +162
-1 +475 <- absolutely crazy line

Real Madrid to win with clean sheet
+426

hard to say about total, but if RM gets early goal 'pools only chance is mess game up and go for the shootout and Klopp just might be the person to courage players to do that...


i'm sure this will be good match anyway, i hope Kiev as a place doesn't cause any problems

:0008

 

[DZ]

I will start by saying that I simply do not trust Liverpool's defense at all. I also think it will be hard for Klopp to change his teams tactics. I do, however, agree that they will be more conservative in the first 15-20 minutes of the game. People tend to forget that Real can play defense. I can not stand Ramos but he is a seasoned and experienced player that will lead this defense. This game could be more low scoring than I think it will be, but with the firepower both teams have, there is no way I would consider any kind of under bet. My guess is that once the first goal is scored, more will come quickly, so I agree that waiting for that first one may be a good move if you bet in-game.

I am not a fan of in-game betting for soccer. I will only do it if I have no other action on the game. If fact, I only in-game bet in other sports if I have no other action or my play has absolutely no chance of winning. More often than not, I see people tie themselves up with in game action in direct conflict with pre-game action.

If the first half is low scoring, I will likely hit the second half over hard unless the play in the first half tells me otherwise. I will leave some dry powder for that possible play or a hedge if Liverpool is surprisingly playing great defense or not attacking like I expect.

In the end, I would not be surprised to see 5+ goals in this game. I know that is extremely unusual and maybe even unlikely, but if I were Klopp, I would do what got me here and that is attack, attack, attack and score. Put Real on the defensive and do not let them dominate possession. If he decides to play the other way, I think Real will break them down, eventually score and then the game will have to open up. This is why I think 3 is a good floor for goals in this one.

Hopefully I am right since this will be my last larger play before the WC begins!

Thanks Bason. BOL to you :0074

 

[Snafu]

friday

strange odds, but i'll take it:

GERMANY: Regionalliga Bayern - Relegation - Semi-finals
Rain/Lech - Memmingen to win +175

:shrug:

taking O2? here:
GERMANY: Regionalliga Bayern - Relegation - Semi-finals
Aubstadt - SpVgg Bayreuth O2? -120


:toast:

 

[BASON]

England Championship

Actually looking forward to this one tomorrow. Should be a very interesting match. Have to love a game with about $200 million on the line. Fulham is favored but I am not sure why. They seem to choke in these situations and Villa is more experienced. Villa's defense is extremely tough and I do not think Fulham will be very aggressive in the first half. Going to play this two ways:

FH Draw -110
Villa +.5 -160

Nothing big, just some early action to start the day. If someone is winning at halftime, I will likely play the other team in the second half as I like the draw for the game, but prefer Villa +.5.

 

[BASON]

England League One

Shrewsbury has been good to me all year, so I have to stick with them in this game. Will take them on the Pk line to be safe at Pk+130. I think Rotherham is getting too much credit in this one. They attack and Shrewsbury is very defensive so looks like the odds makers are thinking Rotherham wins out since they set this total at 2.5. Was surprised to see that and I will also be on the Under 2.5 -140.

Again nothing big, but will need some Sunday action.

Sub, you like this one?

 

[BASON]

And that is why I hate Ramos. He didn't have to hold on there. Takes Salah out of the games and maybe kills all of Egypt's hopes.

I hate the way Real played this first half. I also hate the fact that Zidane keeps Bale and Asensio on the bench.

Have to play the Ov 1.5 Ev in the second half, but I would not recommend everyone play it. I have enough on the Over 3 that I have to take the chance here.

 

[Crazy Fingers]

And that is why I hate Ramos. He didn't have to hold on there. Takes Salah out of the games and maybe kills all of Egypt's hopes.

I hate the way Real played this first half. I also hate the fact that Zidane keeps Bale and Asensio on the bench.

Have to play the Ov 1.5 Ev in the second half, but I would not recommend everyone play it. I have enough on the Over 3 that I have to take the chance here.

Nice hit on the over. Dirty play by Ramos. They knew if Salah was taken out Liverpool couldn't keep up. Karius..🤬[emoji85]🤬.

What a goal by Bale though.

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[Subcloser]

England League One

Shrewsbury has been good to me all year, so I have to stick with them in this game. Will take them on the Pk line to be safe at Pk+130. I think Rotherham is getting too much credit in this one. They attack and Shrewsbury is very defensive so looks like the odds makers are thinking Rotherham wins out since they set this total at 2.5. Was surprised to see that and I will also be on the Under 2.5 -140.

Again nothing big, but will need some Sunday action.

Sub, you like this one?

I did un 1 1H -145...if they can make it through the first 7 minutes or so I will feel pretty good about this one...think Shrewsbury will stay conservative even if they give up an early goal...If Shrewsbury scores early you can count on em circling the wagons trying to hold on...just have a hard time seeing two goals in the 1st half here for countless reasons...they took the full game total off the board at 5d's

 

[BASON]

It is at Un 2 -105 now. I knew that 2.5 was bs and wouldn't last.

Big day yesterday. Needed that one. Liverpool goalie was a disgrace. Sets the bankroll back up for the WC.

Crazy, precisely why I said Bale should have started this game. He was the difference maker.

 

[BASON]

Monday action

Looking for a little action today. Don't like the England 2 game that much, but would take Exeter +.5 if I had to make a play. I will go to Norway today and take Sarpsborg -140. I really do not follow this league, but this looks like a mismatch on paper given the away teams form and Sarpsborg goal scoring at home, so I will take a shot on a slow day.

Having trouble getting any Friendly lines right now, so I will add something if I get them. Bolivia is coming to the US without their coach and with an extremely inexperienced team. The US team is also very young, but they should win this game. I also look for Italy to look different under Mancini. Balotelli is back!!

Lines are out so here is what I am playing. All are VERY small plays as friendlies are very difficult to cap, so just a little $$ for some action.

US/Mexico parlay. No way I can bet the US at -240 even with the poor team Bolivia sent, so I will tie them to Mexico -180 against a weakened Wales team. Mexico game is at the Rose Bowl so will be like playing in Mexico City.

France Ov 2.5 -120 - No idea if Ireland shows up or not but see no reason why they would play defensively which should open this game up and France is completely loaded up front.

Italy Ov 2.5 -120 - Just a hunch that Mancini wants to put on a good show and we see Balotelli score. Mancini wants to move away from Italy's past defensive posture and attack, so we will see if he can do it. The Saudi's have a tendency to give up goals against top level teams.

 

[Subcloser]

Monday action

Looking for a little action today. Don't like the England 2 game that much, but would take Exeter +.5 if I had to make a play. I will go to Norway today and take Sarpsborg -140. I really do not follow this league, but this looks like a mismatch on paper given the away teams form and Sarpsborg goal scoring at home, so I will take a shot on a slow day.

Having trouble getting any Friendly lines right now, so I will add something if I get them. Bolivia is coming to the US without their coach and with an extremely inexperienced team. The US team is also very young, but they should win this game. I also look for Italy to look different under Mancini. Balotelli is back!!

Lines are out so here is what I am playing. All are VERY small plays as friendlies are very difficult to cap, so just a little $$ for some action.

US/Mexico parlay. No way I can bet the US at -240 even with the poor team Bolivia sent, so I will tie them to Mexico -180 against a weakened Wales team. Mexico game is at the Rose Bowl so will be like playing in Mexico City.

France Ov 2.5 -120 - No idea if Ireland shows up or not but see no reason why they would play defensively which should open this game up and France is completely loaded up front.

Italy Ov 2.5 -120 - Just a hunch that Mancini wants to put on a good show and we see Balotelli score. Mancini wants to move away from Italy's past defensive posture and attack, so we will see if he can do it. The Saudi's have a tendency to give up goals against top level teams.

thanks for posting your thoughts...gonna ride with ya today on all of these..after looking into them they all make sense and I believe line movement supports your thoughts...looking forward to the World Cup in a just a few weeks now...Will you be starting your own thread for the CUP???...may be easier to keep track of you and your own plays...thanks again, and gl today

 

[BASON]

Thanks Sub, my pleasure.

Yes, I will be starting a separate World Cup thread this week.

 

[Crazy Fingers]

Monday action

Looking for a little action today. Don't like the England 2 game that much, but would take Exeter +.5 if I had to make a play. I will go to Norway today and take Sarpsborg -140. I really do not follow this league, but this looks like a mismatch on paper given the away teams form and Sarpsborg goal scoring at home, so I will take a shot on a slow day.

Having trouble getting any Friendly lines right now, so I will add something if I get them. Bolivia is coming to the US without their coach and with an extremely inexperienced team. The US team is also very young, but they should win this game. I also look for Italy to look different under Mancini. Balotelli is back!!

Lines are out so here is what I am playing. All are VERY small plays as friendlies are very difficult to cap, so just a little $$ for some action.

US/Mexico parlay. No way I can bet the US at -240 even with the poor team Bolivia sent, so I will tie them to Mexico -180 against a weakened Wales team. Mexico game is at the Rose Bowl so will be like playing in Mexico City.

France Ov 2.5 -120 - No idea if Ireland shows up or not but see no reason why they would play defensively which should open this game up and France is completely loaded up front.

Italy Ov 2.5 -120 - Just a hunch that Mancini wants to put on a good show and we see Balotelli score. Mancini wants to move away from Italy's past defensive posture and attack, so we will see if he can do it. The Saudi's have a tendency to give up goals against top level teams.

Good luck today [emoji765]

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