Soccer 2018 January-May

BASON

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Fulham -150. Not in love with laying this kind of juice in this one, but Fulham looks like they are worth a play today. They dominate at home and always score at least one. Derby on the other hand has been terrible on the road having won just 1 of their last 9. The only thing keeping this from being a stronger play is Derby's results against Fulham (they have only lost 2 of their last 12 and once in their last 6 at Fulham). I expect Fulham to do enough to get this to extra time.
 

BASON

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Thanks Bobby.

Villa+125 - Hoping for a similar game to the Shrewsbury match on Sunday, 0-0 halftime and then a Villa counter to win as Boro will be desperate to score in the second half. The draw is certainly a possibility here but I think Villa will be strong defensively and score on the counter to seal this one and set up a great final against Fulham.
 

BASON

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Villa couldn't get one in but no a bad run in the England playoffs.

I already played Atletico rather big tomorrow at -135. It went to -150 and dropped fast today to -125. That is a big drop (maybe because the game is in France) but I expect it to inch back up some over night. I simply believe Atletico is a much better team and should be able to shut Marseille down. You have the added benefit that Marseille has serious troubles winning away from home and also has an important game this weekend left in League play. All this looks like a 2-0 victory for Atletico.
 

Vig

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1 EST Sweden

Malm? +.5 -155 @ Hammarby

Hammarby at +120 should be getting no value right now. They're playing very well, and at home. Should be a -120 line minimum IMO.
 

Vig

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1 EST Sweden

Malm? +.5 -155 @ Hammarby

Hammarby at +120 should be getting no value right now. They're playing very well, and at home. Should be a -120 line minimum IMO.

Undone by a second yellow near the 70'. Fuckhead
 

Vig

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Great call on Atletico, Bason. Marseille was snuffed out as expected
 

BASON

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Thanks Vig. Was a great day for me as I also bet a 3-0 correct score for a 10-1 winner (sorry bet at the last minute and could not post in time) and small win with Rotherham.

Will likely make a small play on Exeter in a Pk tomorrow in League 2 and still contemplating Germany relegation game (Wolfsburg vs Kiel). Also my outs have not posted a line yet, but think it will show up in the morning. I think this game may be more interesting than most think. Will update in the am.
 

johnnyb

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Nice call on Europa yesterday, Bason. Looking fwd to what u r thinking re: German relegation game today...


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Vig

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Short on time, but I noticed a significant line flip in the Netherlands relegation match between Emmen and Rotterdam. Big move on Emmen now favored. Emmen worth a small play. 1230 EST
 

BASON

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Wolfsburg Ov 2.5 - These relegation games are usually low scoring as both teams typically play very conservatively. However, Kiel only knows one way to play and that is attack, attack, attack. They were the highest scoring team in Bundesliga 2 this year. I do not think they can change the way the play so they will be pressing for an away goal here and Wolfsburg has some issues in the back. Wolfsburg should be able to exploit Kiel's aggressiveness and score more than one goal. On paper, Wolfsburg is by far the better team and they still have one of the highest payrolls in the league, but they have had a terrible season (again!). There is a lot of pressure on them, especially at home, but if they can get that first goal relatively early, I think they should be able to take this one rather easily. Looking for a 3-1 type game.

Personally, I would love to see Kiel advance. Rare in Germany that a team comes from 3rd division to 2nd to Bundesliga back to back years, but I would be very surprised if this happened.
 

BASON

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Thanks boys, on a very nice roll right now so hope I make it last for at least one more big play on Saturday.

Bayern -375/-2 +105 - I think Frankfurt is in for a world of hurt on Saturday. Yes they can qualify for Euro with a win, but Bayern just got embarrassed at home 4-1 to Stuttgart and it is Hynckes last game for Bayern. They also recently beat them 4-1 at home. I do not see any way Frankfurt wins this game. Once Bayern gets that first goal it should snowball from there. I have been burned by Bayern many times so don't go nuts, but this is the only play I am making over the next two days and using most of my winnings from the last week.
 

Vig

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FA Cup

Given Mourinho's record in cup/championship matches (significantly better) vs Conte's, I don't get this line at all. To me, oddsmakers see this game going beyond 90+


Chelsea pk -115 +170 2 -140
MU pk -105 +185 2 +115
+200

Small plays on draw, and 1-1 score end of reg. Live betting should reveal a potential larger play IMO
 

Vig

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Stuck with my initial read, played United +1 after the pk. My god this game is a snoozer.
 

Vig

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I've reimagined hell to be watching United play Huddersfield over and over for true eternal suffering
 

BASON

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Mourinho's style of play is just brutal.

Man, did I shit the bed with Bayern. They just didn't show today. Sorry boys, that one hurt a little.

Getting some back in the horses today. Just do not see Justify losing today.

Also if you can find lacrosse lines for tomorrow I have a feeling Cornell beat MD.
 
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