Those that will not pay a tout ... why?

[Nick Douglas]

Czech,

I don't buy the idea of successful handicappers augmenting their income long term with services. I personally don't know of any cases of that happening and I would love to hear from someone who has successfully played their own plays and a service's plays for several years if such a person exists.

In theory, it sounds great to pay someone for what looks like free money but the reality of it is that playing a service's plays distracts a person from their own handicapping and encourages laziness. I have tried in the past to play every play from other handicappers that I know are long term winners and I found that my own handicapping suffered as a result. Maybe it is just coincidence but that is what I found. I do piggyback plays from certain handicappers that I respect from time to time, especially if I am on a losing skid and I need a few days off, but if I believe that following a service's plays while doing your own handicapping as well is counterproductive.

 

[SmashMouth]

Simople. My units are only $100. If I buy a 200 dollar service for a month. I have to hit a 2 unit play just to break even.

 

[JSMOOTH]

The question was...

The question was...

"Those that will not pay a tout ... why? "

I have yet found a pay service to give me a satisfactory answer to this question.

If you are soooooo good...then why do you need my money to make your money? In other words, If you want to make money, and you're sure enough of your handicapping that you can sell your picks, then put your own damn money on the game!

I know that fletcher and RAYMOND do play their own picks, so if they are trying to get paying customers, they are either trying to...A offset their losses... or B are greedy.

OK, now that I've seemed to "attack" two of MJ's favorite cappers....lemme have it.

Sorry, but that's my opinion. Good luck to you two.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Nick,

Interesting. That probably is a strong argument for a lot of people. But I would be careful to not word that as you did by suggesting it applies across the board (i.e. to all people). I can easily imagine that some people may have the discipline not to let their own handicapping suffer just because they have some extra plays they are making.

I have some experience in this. I have been following plays for 2 NBA seasons with a tout who has gone 101-86. He specializes in a sport (NBA) that I would have otherwise not made any plays in because I know little about handicapping it. He's accounted for about 8% of my total sports handicapping profits over that time (I know his overrall record isn't stellar, but his second year was much better than his first and luckily for me my unit play was a lot higher). It is possible that if I had not used him I may have been more motivated to learn more about the NBA myself however. But in the end I do believe my decision to use him was a good investment.

JSMOOTH,

I'm glad you brought this age-old question up because I've always thought there was an obvious answer to this and I don't understand why people don't see it. Touts don't necessarily "need" the extra money but if it is there, then why not go for it? You can call them greedy if you like but why stop there? You'll have to look at just about everyone around you and call them greedy too.

If you had a great paying job and you were offered a raise, would you consider turning it down because you don't need the money?

Those that make more effort to accumulate more money generally are more successful than those to don't. Anyone who critcizes them for this is just being jealous.

 

[mrcrabs]

nt

 

[TheShrimp]

Czech,
The simple fact of the matter is, if you are capable of picking winners, it is far more profitable to bet than to sell your picks.

This doesn't make sense. If a person is capable of picking winners, then isn't it most profitable to bet AND sell your picks?

I think paying a tout doesn't make sense if :

1) Sports gambling is a hobby. You're paying someone to do your hobby for you. What fun would stamp collecting be if someone went to stamp shows and bought all of your stamps for you? The one guy said he wouldn't pay someone to walk his dog or mow his lawn. It's more than that. It's like you wouldn't pay someone to read a book for you.

2) Sports gambling is your profession. If you're a pro, then either you don't need touts or you are a tout.

It only makes sense to me if you're a guy who thinks there's an easy road to a lot of money through sports gambling -- that you can just pay a guy (or read a message board) to give you picks that you are going to win with. Money is just not that easy to make.

You've heard precious few stories in this thread or elsewhere of people who make money through a tout service. Maybe people who use a good one are reluctant to give out the info. I don't know.

And, someone here did make a point that is important. Some gamblers take days off to recharge or because they really don't think there are any good lines out there. How does a tout do this?

I didn't follow this board last summer, but did Ray and Fletch put picks out there EVERY single day? If not, I hope they do this year because they have action junkies paying them $200/month and those people are going to want picks. I don't doubt they both had winning seasons on this board, but I do wonder if they made plays every single day.

Also, as a business model, there's something funny about touting. You have no recourse if you don't get what you pay for: winners. I know you enter into it knowing there's an amount of risk (at least I hope you do), but boy oh boy -- you think you feel like a sucker when you pick a big time loser? See how you feel when you pay someone to tell you to play that loser.

TheShrimp

 

[yyz]

I am amazed at how some of you guys can't see the bigger picture.

At least Czech seems to understand the basic fundamentals of this topic.

Pure and simple:

Money is a "sure thing" if they sell plays, and a gamble if you actually are gambling on your plays!

If one of these guys has 100 customers willing to pay $200 per month, that's $20,000........I think that is a nice income for the month, don't you?

What kind of person can sit back and still give me that shit about, "If you're so good, you wouldn't need my money!"?

A legitimit paid handicapper will try to grind out a profit for you over the course of a season. So, if he makes his client $20,000 over a season, and that client paid $2,400 to achieve that goal, I would say it was money well spent. How some dunce can dispute this, is beyond me.

It is a very weak arguement to suggest that a man should "wager more" over selling his plays, if he is indeed, a solid capper.

To intimate that all of these services are a scan, is a joke.

 

[the_fix_is_on]

OT = Occupational Therapy

I've found that a lot of pay services also offer a daily free pick. I've followed one individual in basketball on his free picks this season and have hit about 75%. He encourages people to purchase his pay picks, and says that smart players don't use his free picks, but pay for his "Top" picks. It's hard to improve on 75%. I'm thinking that he probably isn't hitting his pay picks at that rate. I imagine there are a good many people that will pay for his "Top" picks, based on the success of his free picks.
So that's my take - A good handicapper will give away a good free pick to encourage players to pay. I've followed this guy like a lemming...and it's worked. And I haven't paid a dime.
Just call me Freddy the Freeloader.

 

[prospector]

there is no doubt about it.
being consistent means doing a lot of work at this game. it makes a lot of sense to me if they've done the work and have special knowledge to share those efforts and charge for it. they have done the work anyway and have "finished" product to sell.

there also is no doubt.
a good, or even a VERY good capper will have a bad run every now and then. that doesn't make him a bad capper. it's par for the course. if operating a tout service helps buffer the loss that is a good thing for the capper also.

there is no doubt
a secure source of income is always better than an unreliable one.

and there is no doubt about it.
if you don't do your own homework on the games you're playing then winning is only LUCK. and not many people are so lucky. they will fail.

 

[mrcrabs]

nt

 

[djv]

Prospector. You are correct up and down in this industry is very common. Money managing and a nice bank role to start with helps. I here folks say they will charge 200 a month for there service. I have not heard them say that. If so 200 will take away about 50% of there customer base. There are not that many who will go 200. Now a average player believe it or not 77 to win 70. that came from the industry magazine gambling times. It's to high. But is it. It will depend on number of plays. Some folks shoot the moon need 6 to 10 plays everyday. I don't agree with that chasing angle. It's a killer in a down turn period. Give me what you believe is 2 or 3 very quality plays. Try something some time. I did this and was very surprised. I took 100 plays I capped over a football season. A lot of hard work believe me. I hit 55.4%.It was a good season with a proffit. I also flipped a coin on each one of those games. To my surprise I hit 56.2%. Seemed like alot of work I didn't have to do. I came here and first year with Nolan his football only plays. Nolan did like 63%. great stuff.
I did my own and tryed this coin flipping test once again. Had not did it for many years. With Nolan's plays. I got 59%. All his hard work, I flipped a coin got 59%. My 100 plays I had a down year at 52.4%. those same games I flipped a coin it was at 54%. I have no idea what it all means. A fellow that new this stuff very well. He's gone afew years now. Told me to try this. He just said you will be surprised. I was and still am. Im going to do it next year again. I believe he was trying to say it's all just luck.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

How do you hit 55.4% on 100 plays?:shrug:

 

[MadJack]

djv, is that coin for sale?

 

[MadJack]

bobby, maybe a push or two?

 

[yyz]

djv,

it states on their site that it costs two hundy a month for each guys plays.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Got it. Coffee hasn't sunk in yet

 

[djv]

MJ first time I tryed that was 1989. I was very surprised. Did it on about 100 plays. Two year back with Nolan I happened to be going through many old papers. Im a pack rat on this stuff. I said im going to try this again. As long as I was doing mind. I thought I would do his to. Believe I did over 100 of his but kept it close to my count of 103. I think what it may mean is. If you get enough right and the coin agrees, you can be lucky. I think next FB season what im going to do. Is put the plays up in the tread. Then put what the coin says next to them. If nothing else it should be fun for all to watch.
BBC I used 100 as a target it was not dead on. But very close.

 

[Hoops]

Winners move the line, this is a fact ,and anyone who disputes it is an idiot.

I guess I'll volunteer to be the idiot. Money moves the line, not winners. You could be the greatest handicapper in the world, hit 70% of your plays, but if you are only a $100 bettor you aren't moving anyone's line. Now you could be a 53% handicapper, but play 10k per game..guess who is going to move the line?

 

[JSMOOTH]

I'm glad you brought this age-old question up because I've always thought there was an obvious answer to this and I don't understand why people don't see it. Touts don't necessarily "need" the extra money but if it is there, then why not go for it?

I don't buy that. Most touts are begging for clients. Someone mentioned jealousy....I would hardly call it jealousy. If anything, I have pitty for the poor suckers who pay touts.

What kind of person can sit back and still give me that shit about, "If you're so good, you wouldn't need my money!"?

I guess I'm "that kind of person". For the touts that actually play their picks, having paying customers are basically there to offset the losses. Bottom Line!

If I were a pay service, and I just lost a dime on the game that my service put out, I wouldn't feel so bad about losing the game knowing that the "suckers" basically paid my loss.

 

[mrcrabs]

nt