Those that will not pay a tout ... why?

[Bama6895]

McCrabs,

A question for you: You mentioned how the touts say they hit 80% or higher. We also see that everyweek they have the play or the year or month or whatever. How do they get away with claiming that? How is that not false advertising?

We all know that they do not hit that. If asked to produce the #s to prove their % what do they show? Do they show that yesterday they hit 4 of 5?

Just wondering about this. Thanks in advance for your response.

 

[mrcrabs]

nt

 

[mrcrabs]

nt

 

[Bama6895]

McCrabs,

If it worked the exact way that you said then I would do it all the time. The caller could not lose too much.

I call get the play. The play wins then I break even if I bet 100, the same amount as I paid for the call. If it loses then I win 15 dollars. The 125 minus the 100 for the play and the 10 for juice. So you if you could do this for 365 days per year and you won 50% then you could earn an extra 2800 per year. That is a considerable amount for a small wager player like myself.

 

[spanky2]

Crabs, Did you 'work' out of Toronto doing the sheets about 8 or 9 years ago ??? And lived right by Woodbine Racetrack in the same building as all the trainers lived ( Gil Rowntree , etc.)??
If so ,thanks for the 'live' horses you gave Ed and myself, some MONSTER prices and Great cashes. If this is the Computer (Sheets) guy I met, My hat goes off to you ..
If not, sorry, But one of the ORIGINAL computer guys was "banished" to Toronto for a couple of years as the U.S. Gov't was trying like hell to bust him for Racketering , and a bunch of other "trumped up charges" that took years to clear the "group" of.
These guys were NO BULLSHIT,and made multi-millions, and by hard work and many hours of 'running numbers'.
Just my input on what I experienced .Good luck CRABS, I for one 'lived' the dream on some of your numbers or one of your partners... Spanky.........

 

[mrcrabs]

[nt

 

[mrcrabs]

Crabs, Did you 'work' out of Toronto doing the sheets about 8 or 9 years ago ??? And lived right by Woodbine Racetrack in the same building as all the trainers lived ( Gil Rowntree , etc.)??
If so ,thanks for the 'live' horses you gave Ed and myself, some MONSTER prices and Great cashes. If this is the Computer (Sheets) guy I met, My hat goes off to you ..
If not, sorry, But one of the ORIGINAL computer guys was "banished" to Toronto for a couple of years as the U.S. Gov't was trying like hell to bust him for Racketering , and a bunch of other "trumped up charges" that took years to clear the "group" of.
These guys were NO BULLSHIT,and made multi-millions, and by hard work and many hours of 'running numbers'.
Just my input on what I experienced .Good luck CRABS, I for one 'lived' the dream on some of your numbers or one of your partners... Spanky.........

Sorry, I'm not who you think.

 

[SLAM DUNK]

Question of the day. "If you are so good at picking winners why do you need to to sell my plays". Put on your thinking caps. Now let's say hypothetically speaking that I hit 60% winners each season over 120 games. That would be 72-48 or +19.2 units. Lets say my ambition is to generate $100,000 a year profits yearly with my service(may take a lifetime with all the deprogramming I have to do, but it is a nice ambition). That would mean that once I reach the $100,000 profit mark, even if I hit 60% winners I am being paid the equivalent of over $5000 a game per winner. What happens if I have a bad year and hit 56%, well now I am down to 67-53 or only +8.7 units. Now my $100,000 income is the equivalent to an extra $12,000 a game(roughly). Now lets assume I play at 4% of bankroll. What size bankroll would I need to make $5000 a game ($125,000*1.1 or $137,500). What size bankroll would I need to make the equivalent of $12,000 a game($330,000). So gee, let me think about this. What is smarter, have a service and generate the equivalent of a $125,000 to $330,000 bankroll or risk that much more to make make the same amount of money.

"But customers can not afford the cost of a service and win also". Well lets see about this. Lets say said customer plays $500 a game. Lets say on a bad year I hit 55% and on a good year I hit 60%. I will not even count line shopping that should get the player at least one extra unit a season if not more. Bad year is 66-54(+6.6 units), good year is 72-48(+19.2 units). Player will make $3,300 on a bad year, $9,600 on a good year.


The only intelligent arguments for not paying a tout are

1) You think they are not capable of what they promise

2) You cannot afford to bet enough to make it worth the time and energy

3) You can do just as well on your own(which excludes most of you).


There has been plenty of documentation on the unsrupulous tactics that go on with many services. That being said, that does not mean all services choose that route.

Mr Crabs I fully understand your numbers and if I was able to come up with 120 strong plays a month, I would hardly waste the time with a service, but truth is I have about 120 strong plays a year. Thus the long run is a lot longer for me than it is for Billy Walters.

 

[Hoops]

I don't quite understand this expose on touts...I think most of us here and seasoned gamblers everywhere know how the Feists, Roots, etc., of the world work. This isn't some groundbreaking news you are unearthing.

But you seem to have tunnel vision in regards to all services are clumped into the 'tout' category. Does the person who hits 58% of his plays, decides he might want to earn extra money, so he starts a service, does the same thing he always has done as far as selecting games, etc.,...is that person now a 'tout'?

Going back to the other point...I'm sure there are people who are recreational gamblers or sport specific that are sharp but don't bet a large amount. Say you have a guy hitting 60% for the past couple of NFL seasons, but he just keeps steady, plays his $200 per game or whatever, it is more of a hobby for him, knows the game and for various reasons is a consistent winner...then you have the big player or whatever you would like to call him that is playing 25k per game...he can afford it, it's the same to lose that as the guy who bets $200 per game...but he just isn't very good or at least not for a period of time...ice cold...are you moving your line on the $200 per game bettor that wins or the guy who is putting down 25 large?

I think the best posts in regard to the general topic of 'touts' and paying for picks have been made by Perpetual Czech, scattered across a few different threads. His points are extremely valid, as is Slam Dunks.

 

[Night Owl]

Czech,

I realize that for a higher unit amount per wager, 101-86 looks pretty good for the long haul, but let's examine those results for the $100 bettor, for argument's sake if no other reason.

By my calculations, 101-86 nets a 54.0% winning percentage. Over 187 total plays, you would have won $10,100 for your wins. Lost $8,600 for your losses. Add in $860 in vig and your TOTAL NET PROFIT IS A WHOPPING $640.00 over a 187 game span! That's WITHOUT paying a "tout" ONE CENT!!! I would have to imagine that over that time frame, the fees they would collect from you would not only wipe out your small profit, but actually put you IN THE HOLE

Theoretically, it could be well worth your while to pay for a tout service if you are a big-time player, have some experience, trust and respect for the service you are using, and -- more importantly -- you've seen a DOCUMENTED RECORD OF L0NG-LASTING SUCCESS!!! Like I say, for the right amount of money per wager could net you a very nice profit in the long run (provided they win a lot....obviously), but to me the real question with that is: Do people REALLY have that type of money (and interest) in wagering 5 to 10 units a game, hoping that the service totally kicks ass?? :shrug:

Couple more things. These guys who claim they hit 70% or better over a long stretch of time are suspicious from the get-go, to put it nicely. Am I saying that it's totally impossible to do? NO! BUT.... give me free plays over a long stretch of time, let me document them and see what your win % is and then the service could at least stake a realistic claim for why you should use them. I know both Fletcher and RAYMOND are both excellent cappers and no doubt win quite often, but I personally couldn't pay for ANYBODY'S picks without knowing -- for sure and for myself -- what their exact win % was over X period of time. I don't want them "documented" somewhere else. Frankly I don't totally trust that. I want to do the research and see what they've won and what they've lost. If I can SEE that you've won 75% of your games over the last 2 months or whatever.....obviously you have a helluva lot more credibility than a guy who wants me to pay for his "awesome 80% winning ways" without me knowing FOR SURE fact 1 about this guy!!!!

If I followed a guy AND calculated his record every night and it was basically true that yeah....he does and is kicking ass, then I think it'd be only reasonable to at least CONSIDER using his service. So in other words, to make a long story short, I do think there can be a case made for using a service. If any of you know FOR A FACT that RAYMOND and/or fletcher have been hitting like 60-70% or whatever over the last few months or something, it might very well be in your best interest to pay for their picks. All's I'm saying is know the FACTS about people and make damn sure they are straight before you go down that paydirt road.

As for me, I'll never pay for any picks for the simple fact that I WANT the responsibility of winning and losing for myself. I watch a lot of sports and just honestly feel that with the proper self-discipline (do not chase, etc.) and research, I should be able to make a modest profit over X period of time. I harbor no illusions of making a "ton" of cash doing this. Hats off to those who can and/or do. Basically, I just think I should be good enough on my own to do Ok, or not gamble at all, if I'm not. Also, let's be honest. NO PICK is ever a guarentee. You could do HOURS of capping, research, whatever.....and lose. Or you could just take a freakin stab in the dark and win, so why pay money for what really boils down to an opinion and a guess???

Night Owl

 

[yyz]

Crabmeister,

You seem to have a case of "Not seeing the forrest for the trees."

Your scenario would have us believe that this handicapper would always go 6-4 over ten game stretches. That just doesn't happen. Big swings will occure either way.

Let's go back to the thought that our "Guest Capper" has a client base of 100. At that $200 per month, he gets $20,000. To achieve that number by betting his plays at that 60% clip, he would need to wager $1,250 a game. That is a lot of chedder to be carrying about! (Based on your 5% per wager idea, that would mean a starting kick of $25,000)

Now, let's say this man does not have faith in the illegal off shore biz. He is forced to wager in Las Vegas, if he wants to see that kind of action.....set up accounts all over town.....face being barred....etc.

This can draw out forever, but the way I see it, you can have your cake and eat it too.

I don't think anyone is looking for these guys to plug along at a 60% clip. I think people look for a shot at making money, and don't have time or inclination to handicap. I would love to get paid for making picks, as it would make me happy in knowing that I was appreciated, and able to make others cash. The downside being losing so badly, that you want to crawl under a house!

Now, if this was me doing this venture, I must tell you that I would not wager on my plays, for the reasons just stated. I feel more comfortable in finding the information, than risking my money on it. But, if others want to take that chance, and pay me, I would be a fool to say "no". I would also not produce plays for the sake of having plays! A lot of these guys went wrong doing just that, I should think.

"I don't like a thing today, but the players expect something." Very bad move.

This topic is rolling!

 

[fletcher]

not as smart as you think crab,first you came in here for a reason say what you want,i don't buy it.

2nd got a call from someone that saw this and thought they knew who you were and i posted it quite simple i played you like a bad drum,and called you on it and you came clean plain and simple. so i would say that person was right how do i know that because you came out and told me. ????? wrong again wasnot jack it was a reader from out here.

who's your big advertiser up in the left hand corner,mmm wonder ,then after all your years you show up in a post that has to deal with me signed up march 2002 and a few post before today? never said i hit 70-80% in my life will hit around 58% for the year and that will make people money and not bad money if they choose to join,not if you decide for them.

like your product is worth 895 amonth that you push? with false steam info first move is right but fail to give out 2nd from the people that you charge and not the screen i am talking the steam plays themself. don't try to preach to me least i am up front with who i am not on here for some reason besides handicapping,then to be twisted turned and flipped in my hand was the best,ahh ahh yes i work for don best but,but hell you were here for a reason got caught and called on it ,now trying to spin out of it.

if you want to give out games and info fine but don't try to act like a white knight trying to save the world from being tainted.

like you are mr. clean first you were a mover and now look where you work .far from the dean of a church school. so if you have no business with me stay out of my hair.least the guys here that have said things said it for an honest reason and thats there feelings i can handle that, but you come out from a rock with a agenda and i am sure you will say no no not me,i am just your avg. poster bs you came here for a reason and i am almost sure why,

don't come here and act like dbs is pure you guys are the most corrupt with some of your actions and the stuff you pull. don't even try to preach to me choir boy.

now go back and generate some false moves and hold back a big line move for 10 mins or so and let people bet into a bad line,i know your game.

most be very busy in the office today to be running your agenda all day here.

 

[djv]

YYZ I still want to know if your part of the computer group/Was? You inside info is outstanding.
Fletch if true average player risk about 77 per play. Would it be better to price a service at 100 a mounth then 200. Seems it would give a service a much better chance at getting more clients. I know the math 50 client at 200 are as good as 100 at 100. But what if the 200 stops a firm from even geting 50 clients. The other part of that is percentage of winners has to go up for some one to pay the 200. Just some thoughts not getting on you here at all. Would not mind hereing your thoughts. Kind of sick of hereing Crabs BS.

 

[mrcrabs]

nt

 

[djv]

Crabs not buying that BS about Jack giving anything up. I have had some real wars here at times. Jack has let us have at it. We all try to work back to under standing everyone has there own point of view. But this shit your saying I believe is way over the top. I even if pissed at some one here. Will defend them based on the length of time I have had to discuss many things with them. But you blow in here out the blue and talk like your the master of words. Im sorry your half BS and you know it.

 

[PLISKIN615]

To answer your ?.....It taints the sport of picking games. Handicapping is a challenge to be relished, not purchased. I believe if ever I call a service, the fun will be gone..........I've come close.

 

[dr. freeze]

from what i see you were sniffed out before anyone checked your IP address.......crabs.....

you oughtta go clean up your business so you get some customers back because sooner or later people catch on like Fletcher said and will shop elsewhere......

you are a deceiving person and you should be exposed.....

this is a forum, but if someone is going to come on here and deceive people the integrity of the board demands that your agenda be exposed....

 

[spanky2]

So EXACTLY are the 'real Time' lines I'm buying from D.Best.
I have been ALWAYS told they are updated quicker ,or at least as quick as Vegas Insider .
Am I getting the old Fuch Around, they get their plays in at a 'better' line then give me the so-called updated line AFTER they have made a move on a game ??? I thoght they were honorable and to be trusted...

 

[barfly]

So EXACTLY are the 'real Time' lines I'm buying from D.Best.
I have been ALWAYS told they are updated quicker ,or at least as quick as Vegas Insider .
Am I getting the old Fuch Around, they get their plays in at a 'better' line then give me the so-called updated line AFTER they have made a move on a game ??? I thoght they were honorable and to be trusted...

You got it!!!! They are far from honorable!

 

[mrcrabs]

So EXACTLY are the 'real Time' lines I'm buying from D.Best.
I have been ALWAYS told they are updated quicker ,or at least as quick as Vegas Insider .
Am I getting the old Fuch Around, they get their plays in at a 'better' line then give me the so-called updated line AFTER they have made a move on a game ??? I thoght they were honorable and to be trusted...

Like I said before, I do not speak for donbest. I have not said one positive thing about DB or one negative thing about any of DB numerous competitors. If you are having a problem I suggest you contact [edit out email] or [edit out email] they are the people who can help you.