Those that will not pay a tout ... why?

[PerpetualCzech]

djv,

I don't understand what you are trying to show with your coin-flipping experiment. If you are trying to suggest that handicapping sports is no different from fipping a coin then I have to say I strongly disagree with you. Such a discussion is probably better left for another thread.

Hoops,crab, yyz,

I sat next to one of the biggest bookmakers in the Caribbean last year during football season and from my experience it's my opinion that winners move the line more than money does. However, I agree that I doubt many move the line for a consistent winner who bets $200 a pop (Carib is an exception to this). Whether they SHOULD or not is another matter! This is also probably better left discussed in another thread.

JSMOOTH,

Are you trying to claim that all touts lose money? How can you possibly claim that without knowing the record for every tout?? I have followed a tout for 2 years for example and he is showing modest profits so far.
Isn't it POSSIBLE that there are a handful of honest, good touts out there. Once you reconize this, the next step ( ahuge one) is to use sound judgement to find out which ones they are. I agree that this is probably impossible most of the time.

Bama6895,

The player loses in the long run with that ploy. Half the time he pays 100 for the random pick and the other half he receives 25. That loses in the long run. (Plus he would lose juice on his plays)

Night Owl,

I agree that if you are a small player then it may not be profitable for you to use a tout (I have mentioned this before already). And I agree that the biggest problem by far is deciding whether the tout/handicapper is good enough to produce and honest. I think the fact that you insist on tracking the cappers record yoursef is wise.

To answer you first question, it looks like the people at this forum at least don't have the interest (I don't know about the money) but I am trying to find out why and I have yet to hear a sound argument against the principle.

 

[spanky2]

Thanks guys, I thought I was paying for UP TO THE SECOND ODDS. That is what a few of us have been told..
Is Vegas Insider a "Better" place to purchase REALTIME LINES ?? Thanks for the help..... Spanky.....

 

[PerpetualCzech]

For a while I really couldn't understand why someone wouldn't even *consider* using a tout even though it seemed possible that they could make money from it. I think I know the reason for my confusion now and it's because I was assuming that everyone has the same motivation as I do for betting on sports, and that was a mistake on my part.

I bet on sports for strictly one reason: to try and invest my money and make it grow at the largest possible rate. This is why I was criticizing some of the reasons I was reading for not using a tout i.e. that it made betting less fun, that you feel like an idiot if you lose with someone elses picks, that you like the challenge of being a better handicapper etc. I have those feelings myself but I do my best to ignore them because they have nothing to do with how my bankroll grows.

I still have a big problem with those that think that 100% of all touts are scammers. For some reason they are deliberately choosing not to believe the obvious possibility that *some* touts are skillful and honest. But I'm glad I started this thread because I am realizing more now that others have different reasons than I do for betting on sports. If all you want is money, some touts can help you out but I agree that they can't provide much else.

 

[RAYMOND]

not a good writer but this all i have to say, i thought long and hard on doing this, one reason is that there people that come here
and take my plays and other people plays and sell them . now is that fair, i do all the work and joe blow make the money, my answer is no. i work my ass off day in and day out and have made a alot of people here money . six five- i have played alot of dogs this year and make alot of money nba and in the nhl. and will
do the same in mlb , the answer is to make the people money and to be honest and i will work my ass off like i do now. if people
want to join that is fine and if not that fine too. so want the big deal here. some people paid a laywer and some people paid for there taxes to get done. bottom line is that they are going to make money. i know that and the people that sign up know that.

good luck to everyone
ray

 

[djv]

Ray I don't think to many folks are questioning you and Fletch. I agree if folks took your picks and then made money on them by selling them. Well thats wrong. But that won't stop. Someone will buy yours and Fletcher and still do it. What may come into question. You and Fletch were on many/many of the same games everyday. You guys starting going against each other some folks are going to get real nasty. That's when they will start calling the names. It will not be me because I will have no idea what your picks are. But you both know it's a small world and many folks here will. I still think you would get more customers at the 100 dollar level. But I don't now your business plan. Few for more might be the way. But 200 can price you out of many customers.
GL, to both.
PerpetualCzech, sure you need some luck to win your plays. Look at the folks on Oklahoma last night. Indy was the better team last night. Or was the refereing more for Indy. Some think so. You mention investing our money to grow at fast rate. I believe there are some better places then sport betting. If it was so easy there would be tons of broke books. And we would all have tons of money. There are about 5% winners over the long haul. Someone mention 2% that is wrong. I know a few of the folks that payed for bucket picks this year. They just held there own no big winners. Forsure there money is not growing fast. This process is along one. You hope for all sports to be ahead at the end of the year.

 

[RAYMOND]

djv , let say this i am mine own man , and eric is his own man,
i play my style and he plays his own way. we are two differance
people and two differance capper. he has his players and i got mine. i am only responsible for my actions and my players.
i cannot control anybody esle. i keep it simple and do my thing
so to speak, best wishes

 

[spanky2]

DJV,you said 5% are winners over the long haul. Well,I consider 7 to 10 years as long term, and I can tell you 1st hand through Many years of experience in this area, NOWHERE close to 5% of the betting public "win over the long haul ". And I do mean not even close to 5% are longtime winners.
Just ask 20 'players' you know how they stand over the last 10 years, I don't know of any of my boys ,and I had a pretty good sized 'list',and NOT ONE was a long term (EVEN say 3 year record) winner.
Sorry, but I really have to disagree with you on that one buddy. Spanky......

 

[djv]

Spanky the 5% was for a year. They said if you had 100 folks 5 would end up winners for the year. It said another 5 % would break about even. The other would have losses. Old story from Gambling times and re-ran last year at another site that im not allowed to mention. It also warn of service that are full service. It made sence. Some service may have better handle on Baseball then Baskets or Hockey. Some get there chit mixed up at times of the year when trying to play to many differant sports at same time. I can see that happening you get streached to far with what resource are available. I understand your thought on the 5% rule. Some say you might hit 5% on two sports and loose 5% on two more. That I can see two with the odds against you to start with. A good pitcure of that was Nolan two years ago. Had a very good 62% football season. This year had tough time to make 49%. It happens to everyone.

 

[spanky2]

Thanks for the info. Dam, Gambling Times !!! Used to subscribe to it,always had GREAT reading. Still got my issues kickin' around somewhere with the other piles of gambling books and mags. I never let Mrs. Spanky touch MY special reading.
Go to www.greatstuff4gamblers.com That's were I order most of my books,check it out!!! Have you guys read "the man with the $100,000 breasts ???? Fuchin' laugh like crazy,I'll bet you guys living in Vegas or Henderson know the 'sicko' that got the 'boobs' put in . This cheap guy will bet and do ANYTHING , he has no self-pride so he wins all these totally insane bets. If you guys haven't read it, get it.
Thanks and good luck...Spanky - fresh offa 0-3-1 day yesterday,passing on today,I got my head up my ass.Freekin Kansas,man o man just did'nt like the way they played. Oh well,let's forget that game and move onward....