Thursday service plays 10/2/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
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- Apr 7, 2008
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Guaranteed Pick: Matt Fargo
Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Oct 2 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers
Reason: **79% **2.5** Big East Game of the Week** Pittsburgh and head coach Dave Wannstedt get unwarranted slaps in the face as far as I?m concerned. The Panthers have yet to surpass the .500 mark and have failed to make it to a bowl in his three years so it arguably can be said that they have underachieved. However, Wannstedt is finally directing his own players now and with an experienced group, they will be contending for the Big East title. A scare in Syracuse last week due to a possible lookahead here will have Pittsburgh focused.
The Bulls are 5-0 and right now look like the team to beat in the conference. They looked very impressive last week in dismantling NC State but overall, they have not exactly been a dominating team. The week before they snuck by a horrid Florida International team following a close win over Kansas. It took overtime to take out Central Florida and the first win was over FCS team Tennessee-Martin. This team is solid but should not be laying two touchdowns in conference action against a top tiered team.
The South Florida defense is solid as it is ranked 8th in the nation overall and 4th against the run, allowing just 58.8 ypg. Now comes a test however. The last three offenses the Bulls have faces are ranked 94th, 113th and 110th in rushing offense and the Panthers, while ranked 60th currently, will be the toughest test to date. They rushed for a season high 241 yards and while Syracuse was not a big test, it does provide momentum. Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 152.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc.
The defense could very well be short handed once again as South Florida All-American defensive end George Selvie and defensive tackle Terrell McClain likely will miss their second consecutive game. On the other side, the Panthers defense is playing well, allowing just 306.5 ypg, which is 32nd in the nation. The team allowed just 254 total yards to Bowling Green in the opener but it was hurt by four turnovers. The Panthers should very well be 4-0 heading into this game.
The rushing defense of the Bulls as mentioned is solid but Pittsburgh falls into a contrarian situation based on that defense. Play against home favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are allowing fewer than 100 ypg on the ground, after giving up fewer than 40 yards rushing in their last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS L7 road games against a team with a winning record while the Bulls are 0-6 ATS L6 against teams with a winning record. Play Pittsburgh Panthers 2.5 Units
Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Oct 2 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers
Reason: **79% **2.5** Big East Game of the Week** Pittsburgh and head coach Dave Wannstedt get unwarranted slaps in the face as far as I?m concerned. The Panthers have yet to surpass the .500 mark and have failed to make it to a bowl in his three years so it arguably can be said that they have underachieved. However, Wannstedt is finally directing his own players now and with an experienced group, they will be contending for the Big East title. A scare in Syracuse last week due to a possible lookahead here will have Pittsburgh focused.
The Bulls are 5-0 and right now look like the team to beat in the conference. They looked very impressive last week in dismantling NC State but overall, they have not exactly been a dominating team. The week before they snuck by a horrid Florida International team following a close win over Kansas. It took overtime to take out Central Florida and the first win was over FCS team Tennessee-Martin. This team is solid but should not be laying two touchdowns in conference action against a top tiered team.
The South Florida defense is solid as it is ranked 8th in the nation overall and 4th against the run, allowing just 58.8 ypg. Now comes a test however. The last three offenses the Bulls have faces are ranked 94th, 113th and 110th in rushing offense and the Panthers, while ranked 60th currently, will be the toughest test to date. They rushed for a season high 241 yards and while Syracuse was not a big test, it does provide momentum. Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 152.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc.
The defense could very well be short handed once again as South Florida All-American defensive end George Selvie and defensive tackle Terrell McClain likely will miss their second consecutive game. On the other side, the Panthers defense is playing well, allowing just 306.5 ypg, which is 32nd in the nation. The team allowed just 254 total yards to Bowling Green in the opener but it was hurt by four turnovers. The Panthers should very well be 4-0 heading into this game.
The rushing defense of the Bulls as mentioned is solid but Pittsburgh falls into a contrarian situation based on that defense. Play against home favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are allowing fewer than 100 ypg on the ground, after giving up fewer than 40 yards rushing in their last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS L7 road games against a team with a winning record while the Bulls are 0-6 ATS L6 against teams with a winning record. Play Pittsburgh Panthers 2.5 Units
- Apr 7, 2008
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Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Oregon State (+11.5) over Utah (NCAA Power Play)
9:00 PM EST
Oregon State
? 6-0 ATS coming off a conference win by 7 points or less
? 6-0 SU coming off an upset win as an underdog
? 8-2 SU after having won 2 of the last 3 games
Bonus Play for Thursday
5* Take UAB (+3) over Memphis
10* Take Oregon State (+11.5) over Utah (NCAA Power Play)
9:00 PM EST
Oregon State
? 6-0 ATS coming off a conference win by 7 points or less
? 6-0 SU coming off an upset win as an underdog
? 8-2 SU after having won 2 of the last 3 games
Bonus Play for Thursday
5* Take UAB (+3) over Memphis
- Apr 7, 2008
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BIG AL
At 6:05pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 2:30pm our selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total.
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Oregon State. Last week, we had the Beavers over USC as our Thursday Night Game of the Month for September, and Mike Riley's men rewarded us with an upset 27-21 win over the Trojans as 25-points underdogs.
At 6:05pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
At 2:30pm our selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total.
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Oregon State. Last week, we had the Beavers over USC as our Thursday Night Game of the Month for September, and Mike Riley's men rewarded us with an upset 27-21 win over the Trojans as 25-points underdogs.
- Apr 7, 2008
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS
N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Milwaukee (0-1) at Philadelphia (1-0)
After carrying the Brewers to their first playoff berth in 26 years, CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA) takes the mound on three days? rest for the fourth consecutive start when he opposes the Phillies and Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55) in Game 2 of the best-of-5 NLDS at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia continued its season-long dominance of the Brewers in Wednesday?s series opener, holding on for a 3-1 victory for its first playoff win since 1993. The Phillies are on a 14-3 overall run, going 7-0 against the N.L. Central, and they?ve won 19 of their last 25 at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, since losing the season?s first meeting in Milwaukee, Philly has now won six straight games against the Brewers, including all five at home. Those six wins have come by the combined tally of 32-12, and the Phillies have held Milwaukee to three runs or fewer in each victory.
Milwaukee, which played its first playoff game Wednesday since the 1982 World Series, is 2-9 in its last 11 on the road, 3-12 in its last 15 against winning teams and has lost eight straight contests to N.L. East foes. On the bright side, the Brewers are on positive runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 against right-handed starters.
Including the Game 1 result, Milwaukee is now 5-16 all-time at Citizens Bank Park, including 1-9 in the last 10.
Sabathia capped his incredible two-month regular-season run with the Brewers with Sunday?s complete-game 3-1 victory over the Cubs that allowed Milwaukee to clinch the N.L. wild card. The big lefty gave up just one unearned run on four hits and a walk in the victory, his seventh complete-game win in 17 starts with the Brewers. Milwaukee is 14-3 in those 17 outings, with Sabathia allowing two earned runs or fewer 14 times.
Sabathia went 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA in seven road starts with the Brewers, and in two interleague starts against the Phillies when he was with the Indians, Sabathia went 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA. On the downside, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner made three starts with the Indians in last year?s playoffs, going 1-2 with an 8.80 ERA, allowing 15 runs in 15 1/3 innings.
Myers blew up in his final two regular-season starts, giving up 16 runs (14 earned) on 19 hits in just 8 1/3 total innings, losing 14-8 at Florida and 10-4 to the Braves at home. Prior to those two ugly efforts, the veteran right-hander had been on a roll, going 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA in 11 starts.
Myers was 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts at home, including 1-2 with a 3.92 ERA in his final three at Citizens Bank. However, the one victory was a complete-game, 6-1 rout of the Brewers on Sept. 14, as he scattered just one run on two hits and a walk in the victory. With that effort, Myers improved to 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) versus Milwaukee. Finally, Myers? playoff experience is limited to two relief appearances last year against Colorado, when he gave up two hits and struck out three in 1 1/3 scoreless innings.
The over is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams. The over is also 10-5-1 in Philadelphia?s last 16 home games and 5-3-3 in Milwaukee?s last 11 on the highway. On the flip side, the under is on streaks of 6-1-1 with Sabathia on the mound, 7-3-1 with Myers on the hill and 16-6-2 when the Phillies face N.L. Central foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
L.A. Dodgers (1-0) at Chicago Cubs (0-1)
Facing a must-win situation after dropping Game 1 of this best-of-5 series Wednesday, the Cubs turn to ace Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), while the Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14).
Los Angeles socked three home runs, including a fifth-inning grand slam by James Loney and a solo shot by Manny Ramirez, en route to Wednesday?s 7-2, Game 1 victory at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers, who fell behind 2-0 before scoring seven unanswered runs, are on hot streaks of 20-8 overall, 11-5 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams and 4-1 behind Billingsley. Also, last night?s victory was just their second in their last 14 postseason games since 1993 and snapped a four-game playoff road losing streak.
Chicago, which is now 55-27 at Wrigley Field this season, has lost seven straight playoff games overall and six consecutive postseason home games going back to 2003. On the positive side, the Cubs are on runs of 39-19 against right-handed starters, 22-10 against the N.L. West, 7-1 on Thursdays and 8-3 with Zambrano on the hill.
Prior to Wednesday?s win, Los Angeles had lost five of seven meetings to the Cubs in the regular season, including getting swept in a three-game set at Wrigley Field in late May by the combined tally of 8-3.
Zambrano rode a roller-coaster ride down the stretch, giving up five runs or more in five of his final eight starts, but yielding a combined four runs in his other three outings, including his first career no-hitter on Sept. 14. The burly right-hander followed up the no-no with two terrible starts against the Cardinals and Mets, allowing a combined 13 runs (all earned) on nine hits and seven walks in just 6 1/3 innings (18.47 ERA).
Despite the horrendous outing against the Cardinals at Wrigley on Sept. 19, Zambrano finished 7-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 home starts this year. He?s also 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 12 career appearances (eight starts) against the Dodgers. He faced them twice in a 10-day span this year with completely different results, first allowing one run on six hits in eight innings of a 2-1 home win, then getting rocked for seven runs on 13 hits in 6 2/3 innings in Los Angeles, losing 7-3.
Billingsley pitched two scoreless innings of relief in Saturday?s 2-1 win at San Francisco, while his final regular-season start was a dominating 10-1 home victory over the Padres on Sept. 23, as he surrendered a run on nine hits in six innings. Billingsley gave up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his final 19 starts, lasting at least six innings in 14 of those outings.
Billingsley went just 6-6 on the road despite a solid 3.33 ERA, with the Dodgers losing 10 of his 16 starts on foreign soil. Also, Billingsley?s two career starts against Chicago came this year, and he went 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA, with L.A. losing 3-1 in Chicago and 5-4 at home.
While this is Billingsley?s first career playoff start, he did make two relief appearances in the 2006 divisional round versus the Mets, giving up a run while striking out three in two scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Zambrano has made four postseason starts (three in 2003, one last year), going 0-1 with a 4.37 ERA.
The over is 4-0-1 in Billingsley?s last five starts overall, 4-1-1 in his last six on the highway, 9-2 in Zambrano?s last 11 outings overall and 5-1 in Big Z?s last six at Wrigley Field. The over is also on runs of 8-3 for Chicago in the playoffs, 6-1 for Chicago in playoff home games and 6-2 for Chicago overall. However, the under is 6-3 in the last eight Cubs-Dodgers battles overall, including 4-1 at Wrigley Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Chicago White Sox (89-74) at Tampa Bay (97-65)
After getting three wins in three days against three different teams to capture the A.L. Central crown, the White Sox now begin their quest for their second World Series title in four years when they travel to Tropicana Field to face the surprising Rays. Chicago will hand the ball to slumping Javier Vazquez (12-16, 4.67) in Game 1, while Tampa Bay counters with James Shields (14-8, 3.56).
The White Sox extended their season by beating the Indians 5-1 on Sunday, topping the Tigers 8-2 in a weather-related makeup game Monday and edging the Twins 1-0 in Tuesday?s one-game playoff for the divisional crown. The three victories came on the heels of a five-game losing skid and a 2-8 slump, pushing Ozzie Guillen?s team back into the postseason for the first time since winning the 2005 World Series.
Chicago went 11-1 in the 2005 postseason, including 6-0 on the road. However, the Pale Hose are on current slides of 1-4 on the road, 1-7 on Thursdays, 4-10 against clubs with a winning record, 2-6 behind Vazquez overall and 1-10 when Vazquez faces the A.L. East.
Tampa Bay captured its first-ever A.L. East crown, thanks in large part to an incredible 53-17 record in their last 70 home games. The Rays are also on runs of 40-11 at home against right-handed starting pitchers, 8-3 after an off day, 14-5 with Shields on the mound and 21-7 when Shields pitches at home.
Chicago went 6-1 against the Rays in 2007, then won three of the first four meetings this year, all at Tropicana Field. However, Tampa Bay won five of the final six clashes of the season, holding the White Sox to seven runs in those five victories.
Vazquez went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his first three September starts, then collapsed in his final three outings, going 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in blowout losses to the Yankees (9-2 on the road), Twins (9-3 on the road) and Indians (12-6 at home). The veteran right-hander really struggled on the highway at 5-9 with a 5.10 ERA in 17 starts.
Vazquez was solid against the Rays in three starts this year, posting a 3.54 ERA but losing two of the three contests. For his career, he?s 5-4 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 starts versus the Rays (3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in seven outings at the Trop). Also, Vazquez?s postseason experience is limited to three games (one start) with the Yankees in 2004, and he went 1-0 with a 9.53 ERA, allowing 12 runs on 16 hits (four home runs) in 11 1/3 innings.
Shields started Sunday?s regular-season finale at Detroit, but was lifted by design after just one perfect inning. The right-hander went 5-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts over the final two months of the season, with Tampa winning eight of those 11 outings. Shields was the Rays? best starter at home this year, going 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 starts, 14 of which Tampa Bay won.
Shields, who just completed his third big-league season, dominated the White Sox on May 30 at home, allowing just a run on seven hits in six innings but getting a no-decision in his team?s 2-1 victory. However, in two starts against Chicago last year, Shields gave up a total of nine runs and 19 hits in 14 innings, with the Rays losing both games.
For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 5-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 on Thursdays and 7-3 after an off day. Meanwhile, Tampa?s over runs include 5-1 overall, 16-5 at home, 4-1 on Thursdays, 7-2 against the A.L. Central, 20-6 versus right-handed starters, 5-2 with Shields on the bump and 4-1 when Shields pitches at home.
On the other hand, the under is 12-3 in the last 15 series meetings between these squads and 21-5 in the last 26 clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Milwaukee (0-1) at Philadelphia (1-0)
After carrying the Brewers to their first playoff berth in 26 years, CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA) takes the mound on three days? rest for the fourth consecutive start when he opposes the Phillies and Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55) in Game 2 of the best-of-5 NLDS at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia continued its season-long dominance of the Brewers in Wednesday?s series opener, holding on for a 3-1 victory for its first playoff win since 1993. The Phillies are on a 14-3 overall run, going 7-0 against the N.L. Central, and they?ve won 19 of their last 25 at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, since losing the season?s first meeting in Milwaukee, Philly has now won six straight games against the Brewers, including all five at home. Those six wins have come by the combined tally of 32-12, and the Phillies have held Milwaukee to three runs or fewer in each victory.
Milwaukee, which played its first playoff game Wednesday since the 1982 World Series, is 2-9 in its last 11 on the road, 3-12 in its last 15 against winning teams and has lost eight straight contests to N.L. East foes. On the bright side, the Brewers are on positive runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 against right-handed starters.
Including the Game 1 result, Milwaukee is now 5-16 all-time at Citizens Bank Park, including 1-9 in the last 10.
Sabathia capped his incredible two-month regular-season run with the Brewers with Sunday?s complete-game 3-1 victory over the Cubs that allowed Milwaukee to clinch the N.L. wild card. The big lefty gave up just one unearned run on four hits and a walk in the victory, his seventh complete-game win in 17 starts with the Brewers. Milwaukee is 14-3 in those 17 outings, with Sabathia allowing two earned runs or fewer 14 times.
Sabathia went 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA in seven road starts with the Brewers, and in two interleague starts against the Phillies when he was with the Indians, Sabathia went 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA. On the downside, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner made three starts with the Indians in last year?s playoffs, going 1-2 with an 8.80 ERA, allowing 15 runs in 15 1/3 innings.
Myers blew up in his final two regular-season starts, giving up 16 runs (14 earned) on 19 hits in just 8 1/3 total innings, losing 14-8 at Florida and 10-4 to the Braves at home. Prior to those two ugly efforts, the veteran right-hander had been on a roll, going 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA in 11 starts.
Myers was 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts at home, including 1-2 with a 3.92 ERA in his final three at Citizens Bank. However, the one victory was a complete-game, 6-1 rout of the Brewers on Sept. 14, as he scattered just one run on two hits and a walk in the victory. With that effort, Myers improved to 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) versus Milwaukee. Finally, Myers? playoff experience is limited to two relief appearances last year against Colorado, when he gave up two hits and struck out three in 1 1/3 scoreless innings.
The over is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams. The over is also 10-5-1 in Philadelphia?s last 16 home games and 5-3-3 in Milwaukee?s last 11 on the highway. On the flip side, the under is on streaks of 6-1-1 with Sabathia on the mound, 7-3-1 with Myers on the hill and 16-6-2 when the Phillies face N.L. Central foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
L.A. Dodgers (1-0) at Chicago Cubs (0-1)
Facing a must-win situation after dropping Game 1 of this best-of-5 series Wednesday, the Cubs turn to ace Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), while the Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14).
Los Angeles socked three home runs, including a fifth-inning grand slam by James Loney and a solo shot by Manny Ramirez, en route to Wednesday?s 7-2, Game 1 victory at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers, who fell behind 2-0 before scoring seven unanswered runs, are on hot streaks of 20-8 overall, 11-5 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams and 4-1 behind Billingsley. Also, last night?s victory was just their second in their last 14 postseason games since 1993 and snapped a four-game playoff road losing streak.
Chicago, which is now 55-27 at Wrigley Field this season, has lost seven straight playoff games overall and six consecutive postseason home games going back to 2003. On the positive side, the Cubs are on runs of 39-19 against right-handed starters, 22-10 against the N.L. West, 7-1 on Thursdays and 8-3 with Zambrano on the hill.
Prior to Wednesday?s win, Los Angeles had lost five of seven meetings to the Cubs in the regular season, including getting swept in a three-game set at Wrigley Field in late May by the combined tally of 8-3.
Zambrano rode a roller-coaster ride down the stretch, giving up five runs or more in five of his final eight starts, but yielding a combined four runs in his other three outings, including his first career no-hitter on Sept. 14. The burly right-hander followed up the no-no with two terrible starts against the Cardinals and Mets, allowing a combined 13 runs (all earned) on nine hits and seven walks in just 6 1/3 innings (18.47 ERA).
Despite the horrendous outing against the Cardinals at Wrigley on Sept. 19, Zambrano finished 7-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 home starts this year. He?s also 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 12 career appearances (eight starts) against the Dodgers. He faced them twice in a 10-day span this year with completely different results, first allowing one run on six hits in eight innings of a 2-1 home win, then getting rocked for seven runs on 13 hits in 6 2/3 innings in Los Angeles, losing 7-3.
Billingsley pitched two scoreless innings of relief in Saturday?s 2-1 win at San Francisco, while his final regular-season start was a dominating 10-1 home victory over the Padres on Sept. 23, as he surrendered a run on nine hits in six innings. Billingsley gave up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his final 19 starts, lasting at least six innings in 14 of those outings.
Billingsley went just 6-6 on the road despite a solid 3.33 ERA, with the Dodgers losing 10 of his 16 starts on foreign soil. Also, Billingsley?s two career starts against Chicago came this year, and he went 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA, with L.A. losing 3-1 in Chicago and 5-4 at home.
While this is Billingsley?s first career playoff start, he did make two relief appearances in the 2006 divisional round versus the Mets, giving up a run while striking out three in two scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Zambrano has made four postseason starts (three in 2003, one last year), going 0-1 with a 4.37 ERA.
The over is 4-0-1 in Billingsley?s last five starts overall, 4-1-1 in his last six on the highway, 9-2 in Zambrano?s last 11 outings overall and 5-1 in Big Z?s last six at Wrigley Field. The over is also on runs of 8-3 for Chicago in the playoffs, 6-1 for Chicago in playoff home games and 6-2 for Chicago overall. However, the under is 6-3 in the last eight Cubs-Dodgers battles overall, including 4-1 at Wrigley Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Chicago White Sox (89-74) at Tampa Bay (97-65)
After getting three wins in three days against three different teams to capture the A.L. Central crown, the White Sox now begin their quest for their second World Series title in four years when they travel to Tropicana Field to face the surprising Rays. Chicago will hand the ball to slumping Javier Vazquez (12-16, 4.67) in Game 1, while Tampa Bay counters with James Shields (14-8, 3.56).
The White Sox extended their season by beating the Indians 5-1 on Sunday, topping the Tigers 8-2 in a weather-related makeup game Monday and edging the Twins 1-0 in Tuesday?s one-game playoff for the divisional crown. The three victories came on the heels of a five-game losing skid and a 2-8 slump, pushing Ozzie Guillen?s team back into the postseason for the first time since winning the 2005 World Series.
Chicago went 11-1 in the 2005 postseason, including 6-0 on the road. However, the Pale Hose are on current slides of 1-4 on the road, 1-7 on Thursdays, 4-10 against clubs with a winning record, 2-6 behind Vazquez overall and 1-10 when Vazquez faces the A.L. East.
Tampa Bay captured its first-ever A.L. East crown, thanks in large part to an incredible 53-17 record in their last 70 home games. The Rays are also on runs of 40-11 at home against right-handed starting pitchers, 8-3 after an off day, 14-5 with Shields on the mound and 21-7 when Shields pitches at home.
Chicago went 6-1 against the Rays in 2007, then won three of the first four meetings this year, all at Tropicana Field. However, Tampa Bay won five of the final six clashes of the season, holding the White Sox to seven runs in those five victories.
Vazquez went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his first three September starts, then collapsed in his final three outings, going 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in blowout losses to the Yankees (9-2 on the road), Twins (9-3 on the road) and Indians (12-6 at home). The veteran right-hander really struggled on the highway at 5-9 with a 5.10 ERA in 17 starts.
Vazquez was solid against the Rays in three starts this year, posting a 3.54 ERA but losing two of the three contests. For his career, he?s 5-4 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 starts versus the Rays (3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in seven outings at the Trop). Also, Vazquez?s postseason experience is limited to three games (one start) with the Yankees in 2004, and he went 1-0 with a 9.53 ERA, allowing 12 runs on 16 hits (four home runs) in 11 1/3 innings.
Shields started Sunday?s regular-season finale at Detroit, but was lifted by design after just one perfect inning. The right-hander went 5-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts over the final two months of the season, with Tampa winning eight of those 11 outings. Shields was the Rays? best starter at home this year, going 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 starts, 14 of which Tampa Bay won.
Shields, who just completed his third big-league season, dominated the White Sox on May 30 at home, allowing just a run on seven hits in six innings but getting a no-decision in his team?s 2-1 victory. However, in two starts against Chicago last year, Shields gave up a total of nine runs and 19 hits in 14 innings, with the Rays losing both games.
For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 5-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 on Thursdays and 7-3 after an off day. Meanwhile, Tampa?s over runs include 5-1 overall, 16-5 at home, 4-1 on Thursdays, 7-2 against the A.L. Central, 20-6 versus right-handed starters, 5-2 with Shields on the bump and 4-1 when Shields pitches at home.
On the other hand, the under is 12-3 in the last 15 series meetings between these squads and 21-5 in the last 26 clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at (10) South Florida (5-0, 1-3)
South Florida finally gets around to its Big East opener when it plays host to Pittsburgh at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
The Bulls pounded the ACC?s North Carolina State 41-10 Saturday, getting their first spread-cover of the season as a 10-point road chalk. QB Matt Grothe (20 of 29, 259 yards, 1 TD) was sharp, but USF?s ground game was the real difference-maker, grinding out 245 rushing yards. The Bulls also forced two safeties and won the turnover battle, 3-0.
The Panthers rallied past Syracuse 34-24 in their Big East opener last week for their third straight win. However, they came up short as a 14-point road favorite, failing to cash for the fourth straight week ? all as a favorite. Pitt dominated the stat sheet against the Orange, finishing with a 407-263 yardage edge, including 241 rushing yards, with LeSean McCoy netting 149 yards on 28 carries, and the Panthers nearly doubled Syracuse in time of possession (38:20-21:40).
South Florida has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, following a 2-0 SU and ATS run by Pitt. Last year, USF posted a 48-37 road win giving nine points.
Although the Bulls have failed to cover in four of their last five games, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 in Big East matchups at home and 9-3 overall at Raymond James. The Panthers are on a 4-1 ATS run as a road ?dog, but they are in ATS funks of 1-5 on Thursday, 3-9 after a non-cover, 4-10 against winning teams and 4-9 in conference play.
The over for South Florida is on streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-0 against winning teams, but the under is 8-2 in Pitt?s last 10 lined games overall and 5-2 in its last seven Big East contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Memphis (2-3, 2-2 ATS) at UAB (1-4, 2-2 ATS)
Memphis hits the road to take on Alabama-Birmingham in a meeting of the bottom two teams in Conference USA?s East Division.
The Tigers topped Arkansas State 29-17 Saturday as a 1?-point home underdog and have now cashed in two straight lined games. RB Curtis Steele was the key, racking up 203 yards and a TD on just 22 carries (9.2 ypc) in helping Memphis to a 453-352 edge in total yards.
The Blazers are coming off Saturday?s 26-13 loss to South Carolina, but easily covered as a heavy 26-point road pup despite finishing with just 209 total yards while giving up 353. Also, the Gamecocks held the ball for 10 more minutes than UAB.
Last year, Memphis topped UAB 25-9 as a 9?-point favorite, snapping the Blazers? seven-game winning streak (6-0-1 ATS) in this rivalry. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes.
The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the highway, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a spread-cover and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against losing teams. On the flip side, the Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are on additional pointspread slides of 4-10-1 at home, 2-5 in Conference USA play and 2-7-1 after a spread-cover.
The under is 9-3-1 in UAB?s last 13 games overall, 6-2-1 in its last nine conference affairs and 8-3 in Memphis? last 11 following a spread-cover,
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
Oregon State (2-2 SU and ATS) at (15) Utah (5-0, 2-1-1 ATS)
Coming off an incredible home upset against top-ranked USC, Oregon State steps out of the Pac-10 when it travels to Salt Lake City to take on 15th-ranked Utah of the Mountain West Conference.
The Beavers opened up a 21-0 halftime lead against the No. 1-ranked Trojans a week ago, then held on for a 27-21 victory as a massive 24-point home underdog in a prime-time Thursday game. Oregon State rode the legs of diminutive freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who rushed for 186 yards and two TDs on 37 carries. The Beavers also forced two turnovers, committing none and outgained USC 343-313, including 176-86 on the ground.
The Utes had no trouble with Division I-AA Weber State on Saturday, rolling 37-21 in a non-lined home game. Utah, which led 37-7 early in the fourth quarter, got a solid start from QB Brian Johnson (18 of 22, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), and the Utes also ran for 180 yards while yielding just 56 on the ground.
Utah is looking to avenge last year?s season-opening 24-7 loss at Oregon State, which easily covered as a 5?-point home chalk. In that contest, the Utes lost Johnson and RB Matt Asiata in the first half, helping the Beavers outscore Utah 17-0 in the second half.
The Beavers are on a 9-3 ATS run overall and are on further pointspread streaks of 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 against the Mountain West and 39-17 after a spread-cover. Likewise, the Utes are on several ATS tears, including 8-3-1 overall, 8-4 at home, 7-2 as a double-digit favorite and 24-8-1 in non-conference games.
The over for Oregon State is on stretches of 4-0 on the road and 5-2 against winning teams, while Utah has topped the total in five straight games overall, six straight non-league contests and 20 of its last 28 at home. However, last year?s meeting in Corvalis, Ore., easily stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at (10) South Florida (5-0, 1-3)
South Florida finally gets around to its Big East opener when it plays host to Pittsburgh at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
The Bulls pounded the ACC?s North Carolina State 41-10 Saturday, getting their first spread-cover of the season as a 10-point road chalk. QB Matt Grothe (20 of 29, 259 yards, 1 TD) was sharp, but USF?s ground game was the real difference-maker, grinding out 245 rushing yards. The Bulls also forced two safeties and won the turnover battle, 3-0.
The Panthers rallied past Syracuse 34-24 in their Big East opener last week for their third straight win. However, they came up short as a 14-point road favorite, failing to cash for the fourth straight week ? all as a favorite. Pitt dominated the stat sheet against the Orange, finishing with a 407-263 yardage edge, including 241 rushing yards, with LeSean McCoy netting 149 yards on 28 carries, and the Panthers nearly doubled Syracuse in time of possession (38:20-21:40).
South Florida has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, following a 2-0 SU and ATS run by Pitt. Last year, USF posted a 48-37 road win giving nine points.
Although the Bulls have failed to cover in four of their last five games, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 in Big East matchups at home and 9-3 overall at Raymond James. The Panthers are on a 4-1 ATS run as a road ?dog, but they are in ATS funks of 1-5 on Thursday, 3-9 after a non-cover, 4-10 against winning teams and 4-9 in conference play.
The over for South Florida is on streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-0 against winning teams, but the under is 8-2 in Pitt?s last 10 lined games overall and 5-2 in its last seven Big East contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Memphis (2-3, 2-2 ATS) at UAB (1-4, 2-2 ATS)
Memphis hits the road to take on Alabama-Birmingham in a meeting of the bottom two teams in Conference USA?s East Division.
The Tigers topped Arkansas State 29-17 Saturday as a 1?-point home underdog and have now cashed in two straight lined games. RB Curtis Steele was the key, racking up 203 yards and a TD on just 22 carries (9.2 ypc) in helping Memphis to a 453-352 edge in total yards.
The Blazers are coming off Saturday?s 26-13 loss to South Carolina, but easily covered as a heavy 26-point road pup despite finishing with just 209 total yards while giving up 353. Also, the Gamecocks held the ball for 10 more minutes than UAB.
Last year, Memphis topped UAB 25-9 as a 9?-point favorite, snapping the Blazers? seven-game winning streak (6-0-1 ATS) in this rivalry. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes.
The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the highway, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a spread-cover and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against losing teams. On the flip side, the Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are on additional pointspread slides of 4-10-1 at home, 2-5 in Conference USA play and 2-7-1 after a spread-cover.
The under is 9-3-1 in UAB?s last 13 games overall, 6-2-1 in its last nine conference affairs and 8-3 in Memphis? last 11 following a spread-cover,
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
Oregon State (2-2 SU and ATS) at (15) Utah (5-0, 2-1-1 ATS)
Coming off an incredible home upset against top-ranked USC, Oregon State steps out of the Pac-10 when it travels to Salt Lake City to take on 15th-ranked Utah of the Mountain West Conference.
The Beavers opened up a 21-0 halftime lead against the No. 1-ranked Trojans a week ago, then held on for a 27-21 victory as a massive 24-point home underdog in a prime-time Thursday game. Oregon State rode the legs of diminutive freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who rushed for 186 yards and two TDs on 37 carries. The Beavers also forced two turnovers, committing none and outgained USC 343-313, including 176-86 on the ground.
The Utes had no trouble with Division I-AA Weber State on Saturday, rolling 37-21 in a non-lined home game. Utah, which led 37-7 early in the fourth quarter, got a solid start from QB Brian Johnson (18 of 22, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), and the Utes also ran for 180 yards while yielding just 56 on the ground.
Utah is looking to avenge last year?s season-opening 24-7 loss at Oregon State, which easily covered as a 5?-point home chalk. In that contest, the Utes lost Johnson and RB Matt Asiata in the first half, helping the Beavers outscore Utah 17-0 in the second half.
The Beavers are on a 9-3 ATS run overall and are on further pointspread streaks of 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 against the Mountain West and 39-17 after a spread-cover. Likewise, the Utes are on several ATS tears, including 8-3-1 overall, 8-4 at home, 7-2 as a double-digit favorite and 24-8-1 in non-conference games.
The over for Oregon State is on stretches of 4-0 on the road and 5-2 against winning teams, while Utah has topped the total in five straight games overall, six straight non-league contests and 20 of its last 28 at home. However, last year?s meeting in Corvalis, Ore., easily stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Brad Diamond
20* MLB Maximum Perfect
Play on: 20* Milwaukee (C. C. Sabathia) over Philadelphia
This is one of the few times we get to use the lefty over the righty in a road setting that fits in our reverse angle criteria. Not only that, but the Brewers are in must win situation and can't afford going 0-2 against the big bats of the Phillies. Thus far this season the Phillies have not faced the veteran Sabathia. Historically, that usually plays well for a team like Milwaukee, especially with their emotions amped up.
Take Milwuakee to come up big emotionally on Thursday!
20* MLB Maximum Perfect
Play on: 20* Milwaukee (C. C. Sabathia) over Philadelphia
This is one of the few times we get to use the lefty over the righty in a road setting that fits in our reverse angle criteria. Not only that, but the Brewers are in must win situation and can't afford going 0-2 against the big bats of the Phillies. Thus far this season the Phillies have not faced the veteran Sabathia. Historically, that usually plays well for a team like Milwaukee, especially with their emotions amped up.
Take Milwuakee to come up big emotionally on Thursday!
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Marc Lawrence
Playbook newsletter
S FLORIDA over Pittsburgh by 10
Trailing pathetic Syracuse 24-13 in the 3rd quarter last Saturday at the Carrier
Dome, Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt probably drifted away for a
moment or two where he wondered, ?When will it happen? How will they
tell me it?s over and what will I say at the press conference?? Amazingly, the
Panthers saved Wanny?s hide for another week by rallying to top the Orange,
34-24, a third straight unimpressive win that pushed Pitt?s season record to
3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That goose egg is a real bummer because the Panthers
actually own some good ATS ammunition in this matchup: 6-1 as dogs in the
second of BB road trips, 5-1 away with Big East revenge and 4-1 taking points
from an undefeated opponent (Game Five or later). South Florida moved into
a 10th place tie with Georgia in this week?s Coaches Poll after annihilating NC
State, 41-10, and the Bulls have gone 2-1 SU and ATS versus Pittsburgh since
Wannstedt arrived in the Steel City. We?d love to fade Dave and his Panthers
here but our SMART BOX on page 3 suggests otherwise. Pass for now.
Memphis over UAB by 7
Shhh ? don?t tell anyone but the 2-3 Tigers are 5-0 In The Stats this year after
ripping Arkansas State, 29-17. Memphis pitched a shutout in the second half
against the Red Wolves with a ?punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover, turnover, punt
and out on downs? performance. ?That was as good a defense as I?ve seen around
here in a long time,? crowed Tigers head coach Tommy West, who was also
pleased to see his offense outrush ASU 243-179. The Blazers have more than held
their own lately against Memphis, cashing in 7 of the last 8 series showdowns,
including 4-0 at home. But UAB has left the money on the table when facing
a foe off a SU dog win, posting a dismal 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark. The Blazers
have not shown improvement under 2nd year coach Neil Callaway, winning just
3 of 17 games SU ? and two of those came against unlined opposition. With
UAB struggling to a season-low 207 yards of offense last week against South
Carolina, we?ll back the better defensive squad here and take the Tigers.
UTAH over Oregon St by 16
It looks like Oregon State is a lock for this week?s Rodney Dangerfi eld ?Zero
Respect? Award. After initiating last week?s ?Black Saturday? in college football
(7 teams ranked in the national Top 25 went down) with their HUGE 27-21 upset
win against then No. 1 USC on Thursday at Corvallis, Mike Riley?s Beavers have
been installed as double-digit road dogs to a MWC team! With OSU smacking
the Utes, 24-7, in the 2007 season opener, such a situation would normally get
our blood pumping. However, the Beavers? recent ATS history says they may
not be up to the task of picking unbeaten Utah?s pockets. Not only are they a
weak 2-5 as dogs off a SU double-digit underdog win but ALL non-conference
underdogs off a SU dog win of 20 or more points have failed to the tune of 0-16
SU and 5-10-1 ATS! The Utes help their cause with a 4-0 ATS mark when playing
with non-conference revenge and a 5-2 ATS log when taking of foes off a SU
home dog win. The only potential fl y in this ointment is our very own SMART
BOX, which declares 5-0 Utah to be a go-against FAT CAT. Rarely do we ignore
such advice but following Oregon State?s colossal takedown of the Trojans, the
Beavers look to be much FATTER today
Playbook newsletter
S FLORIDA over Pittsburgh by 10
Trailing pathetic Syracuse 24-13 in the 3rd quarter last Saturday at the Carrier
Dome, Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt probably drifted away for a
moment or two where he wondered, ?When will it happen? How will they
tell me it?s over and what will I say at the press conference?? Amazingly, the
Panthers saved Wanny?s hide for another week by rallying to top the Orange,
34-24, a third straight unimpressive win that pushed Pitt?s season record to
3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That goose egg is a real bummer because the Panthers
actually own some good ATS ammunition in this matchup: 6-1 as dogs in the
second of BB road trips, 5-1 away with Big East revenge and 4-1 taking points
from an undefeated opponent (Game Five or later). South Florida moved into
a 10th place tie with Georgia in this week?s Coaches Poll after annihilating NC
State, 41-10, and the Bulls have gone 2-1 SU and ATS versus Pittsburgh since
Wannstedt arrived in the Steel City. We?d love to fade Dave and his Panthers
here but our SMART BOX on page 3 suggests otherwise. Pass for now.
Memphis over UAB by 7
Shhh ? don?t tell anyone but the 2-3 Tigers are 5-0 In The Stats this year after
ripping Arkansas State, 29-17. Memphis pitched a shutout in the second half
against the Red Wolves with a ?punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover, turnover, punt
and out on downs? performance. ?That was as good a defense as I?ve seen around
here in a long time,? crowed Tigers head coach Tommy West, who was also
pleased to see his offense outrush ASU 243-179. The Blazers have more than held
their own lately against Memphis, cashing in 7 of the last 8 series showdowns,
including 4-0 at home. But UAB has left the money on the table when facing
a foe off a SU dog win, posting a dismal 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark. The Blazers
have not shown improvement under 2nd year coach Neil Callaway, winning just
3 of 17 games SU ? and two of those came against unlined opposition. With
UAB struggling to a season-low 207 yards of offense last week against South
Carolina, we?ll back the better defensive squad here and take the Tigers.
UTAH over Oregon St by 16
It looks like Oregon State is a lock for this week?s Rodney Dangerfi eld ?Zero
Respect? Award. After initiating last week?s ?Black Saturday? in college football
(7 teams ranked in the national Top 25 went down) with their HUGE 27-21 upset
win against then No. 1 USC on Thursday at Corvallis, Mike Riley?s Beavers have
been installed as double-digit road dogs to a MWC team! With OSU smacking
the Utes, 24-7, in the 2007 season opener, such a situation would normally get
our blood pumping. However, the Beavers? recent ATS history says they may
not be up to the task of picking unbeaten Utah?s pockets. Not only are they a
weak 2-5 as dogs off a SU double-digit underdog win but ALL non-conference
underdogs off a SU dog win of 20 or more points have failed to the tune of 0-16
SU and 5-10-1 ATS! The Utes help their cause with a 4-0 ATS mark when playing
with non-conference revenge and a 5-2 ATS log when taking of foes off a SU
home dog win. The only potential fl y in this ointment is our very own SMART
BOX, which declares 5-0 Utah to be a go-against FAT CAT. Rarely do we ignore
such advice but following Oregon State?s colossal takedown of the Trojans, the
Beavers look to be much FATTER today
- Apr 7, 2008
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Brian Hansen
TOTAL OF YEAR
Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Oct 2 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Most expect a shootout. As usual, they're dead wrong! Friends, let me be the first to tell you that this game will be a defensive battle. The Under is 3-1 last 4 times when Pittsburgh is an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. The Under is 2-0 when Pittsburgh is a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Under is 6-3 last 3 years when Pittsburgh has played on a grass field and that includes a PERFECT 3-0 record this year. Want more? The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Bulls were involved in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. That's 87.5%, a percentage that even I'll gladly take. All together now: D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Go Under!
TOTAL OF YEAR
Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Oct 2 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Most expect a shootout. As usual, they're dead wrong! Friends, let me be the first to tell you that this game will be a defensive battle. The Under is 3-1 last 4 times when Pittsburgh is an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. The Under is 2-0 when Pittsburgh is a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Under is 6-3 last 3 years when Pittsburgh has played on a grass field and that includes a PERFECT 3-0 record this year. Want more? The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Bulls were involved in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. That's 87.5%, a percentage that even I'll gladly take. All together now: D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Go Under!
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Thursday
THURSDAY 10/02/2008
7:45 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1 to 6 Units)
Pittsburgh +13? over SOUTH FLORIDA
The Bulls put their undefeated record and Top 10 ranking on the line this Thursday, as they host the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
South Florida may be perfect on the season, but it hasn?t come easy as three of their five wins have come by eight points or less. Last weekend the Bulls did take care of business in convincing fashion, winning at North Carolina State, 41-10.
South Florida has been here before, as they won five straight games to open the season last year; however, they stumbled in a Thursday night game at 5-0 in 2007, losing to Rutgers.
As for Pittsburgh, it got conference play underway last weekend with a 34-24 triumph at hapless Syracuse. It was the third straight win by the Panthers, who have recovered from a 27-17 season-opening loss to Bowling Green and are flying a bit under the radar.
The Panthers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, as they racked up 407 total yards, including 241 on the ground at Syracuse last weekend. The offense even controlled the ball for over 38 minutes and that is good news for this Pittsburgh team, which is averaging 153 rushing ypg and 200 passing ypg for the season. LeSean McCoy led the charge, as he rushed for 149 yards on 28 carries. It was the first 100-yard effort of the season by McCoy, who had high hopes for a big season. Fellow back, LaRod Stephens-Howling, also got involved against Syracuse, rushing for 71 yards and his first two touchdowns on 13 carries. With the success on the ground, quarterback Bill Stull just needed to manage the offense and he did so by throwing for 166 yards and a score on 17-of-29 pass attempts. Stull hasn't put up big numbers this season, but he has done a decent job in passing for 200 ypg.
Defensively, the Panthers have been stingy this season and opposing clubs are managing just 118 ypg on the ground and only 188 ypg through the air against them. The unit has also registered 13 sacks.
The Bulls obviously had their way with the WolfPack this past weekend, amassing 520 total yards and 29 first downs in a 41-10 triumph. The offense did it on the ground, rushing for 245 yards, and through the air, passing for 275 yards, and didn't commit a single turnover in the process.
Matt Grothe, as usual, did a little of everything for South Florida, as he led the team with 68 rushing yards, in addition to throwing for 259 yards and a score on 20-of-29 pass attempts. Grothe's ability to take off with the ball is a big reason why the Bulls are averaging over 200 rushing ypg on the season.
The defense is giving up just 244 total ypg, with just 59 of those ypg coming on the ground; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon due to injures.
LB Brouce Mompremier was injured against Florida International 2 weeks ago and is still out.
DE George Selvie did not play against NC State and is doubtful for this game.
SS Carlton Williams played last week, but reinjured his hip that initially occurred against Florida International.
That?s just the main injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With so many troops out from the stop unit, this gives us an opportunity to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries.
If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Here, South Florida faces a short week and a very determined team that is getting its ?mojo? back after its season-opening loss.
Pitt has become something of an upset specialist, and they hope to spring another one against South Florida. The game is the Panthers 15th Thursday night appearance on ESPN, more than any other Big East school, and they have won four of their last five.
A year ago, Pittsburgh pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in college football history when they deprived their biggest rival, West Virginia, of a chance to play for the national championship in the regular season's final game. They also upset #23 Cincinnati last season.
Several numbers show the Panthers in a good spot here, as they went 4-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) overall as a road underdog of 7+ points last season, and they are a strong 8-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) over the past decade as a regular season underdog of 7+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.
Meanwhile, South Florida is a miserable 0-5 ATS (-13.5 ppg) all-time as a non-Saturday favorite/pick ?em.
Additionally, we have discovered an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. It states:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6?-20? points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.
All the parameters are active here, as this is the 6th game of the season for the unbeaten Bulls, they are favored by nearly 2 TDs, and will face a revenge-minded Pitt team off a SU win. Such teams are 0-13 ATS just since 2005, failing to cover the spread by more than 14 ppg on average! Such a spread loss here for South Florida would result in an outright loss. While that is not out of the question, we do think they?ll hold on, but only by a TD, and fail to cover this relatively large number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 28 PITTSBURGH 21
THURSDAY 10/02/2008
7:45 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1 to 6 Units)
Pittsburgh +13? over SOUTH FLORIDA
The Bulls put their undefeated record and Top 10 ranking on the line this Thursday, as they host the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
South Florida may be perfect on the season, but it hasn?t come easy as three of their five wins have come by eight points or less. Last weekend the Bulls did take care of business in convincing fashion, winning at North Carolina State, 41-10.
South Florida has been here before, as they won five straight games to open the season last year; however, they stumbled in a Thursday night game at 5-0 in 2007, losing to Rutgers.
As for Pittsburgh, it got conference play underway last weekend with a 34-24 triumph at hapless Syracuse. It was the third straight win by the Panthers, who have recovered from a 27-17 season-opening loss to Bowling Green and are flying a bit under the radar.
The Panthers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, as they racked up 407 total yards, including 241 on the ground at Syracuse last weekend. The offense even controlled the ball for over 38 minutes and that is good news for this Pittsburgh team, which is averaging 153 rushing ypg and 200 passing ypg for the season. LeSean McCoy led the charge, as he rushed for 149 yards on 28 carries. It was the first 100-yard effort of the season by McCoy, who had high hopes for a big season. Fellow back, LaRod Stephens-Howling, also got involved against Syracuse, rushing for 71 yards and his first two touchdowns on 13 carries. With the success on the ground, quarterback Bill Stull just needed to manage the offense and he did so by throwing for 166 yards and a score on 17-of-29 pass attempts. Stull hasn't put up big numbers this season, but he has done a decent job in passing for 200 ypg.
Defensively, the Panthers have been stingy this season and opposing clubs are managing just 118 ypg on the ground and only 188 ypg through the air against them. The unit has also registered 13 sacks.
The Bulls obviously had their way with the WolfPack this past weekend, amassing 520 total yards and 29 first downs in a 41-10 triumph. The offense did it on the ground, rushing for 245 yards, and through the air, passing for 275 yards, and didn't commit a single turnover in the process.
Matt Grothe, as usual, did a little of everything for South Florida, as he led the team with 68 rushing yards, in addition to throwing for 259 yards and a score on 20-of-29 pass attempts. Grothe's ability to take off with the ball is a big reason why the Bulls are averaging over 200 rushing ypg on the season.
The defense is giving up just 244 total ypg, with just 59 of those ypg coming on the ground; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon due to injures.
LB Brouce Mompremier was injured against Florida International 2 weeks ago and is still out.
DE George Selvie did not play against NC State and is doubtful for this game.
SS Carlton Williams played last week, but reinjured his hip that initially occurred against Florida International.
That?s just the main injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With so many troops out from the stop unit, this gives us an opportunity to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries.
If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Here, South Florida faces a short week and a very determined team that is getting its ?mojo? back after its season-opening loss.
Pitt has become something of an upset specialist, and they hope to spring another one against South Florida. The game is the Panthers 15th Thursday night appearance on ESPN, more than any other Big East school, and they have won four of their last five.
A year ago, Pittsburgh pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in college football history when they deprived their biggest rival, West Virginia, of a chance to play for the national championship in the regular season's final game. They also upset #23 Cincinnati last season.
Several numbers show the Panthers in a good spot here, as they went 4-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) overall as a road underdog of 7+ points last season, and they are a strong 8-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) over the past decade as a regular season underdog of 7+ points vs. an undefeated opponent.
Meanwhile, South Florida is a miserable 0-5 ATS (-13.5 ppg) all-time as a non-Saturday favorite/pick ?em.
Additionally, we have discovered an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. It states:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6?-20? points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.
All the parameters are active here, as this is the 6th game of the season for the unbeaten Bulls, they are favored by nearly 2 TDs, and will face a revenge-minded Pitt team off a SU win. Such teams are 0-13 ATS just since 2005, failing to cover the spread by more than 14 ppg on average! Such a spread loss here for South Florida would result in an outright loss. While that is not out of the question, we do think they?ll hold on, but only by a TD, and fail to cover this relatively large number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 28 PITTSBURGH 21
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Thu, 10/02/08 - 2:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Total Double-Dime Bet
962 TAM / 961 CWS Over 8 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
** 2* TOTAL ** (OVER -110...Shields vs Vazquez)
I know that many of the shops are still using 8.5, with the Under heavily favored...and in that spot, I would suggest making this a 1* Bet instead...Those who have access to Cris or The Greek should have no problem getting OVER 8 just like we did...VR
Thu, 10/02/08 - 2:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
962 TAM (-176) Sportsbetting.com vs 961 CWS
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER ** (Shields vs Vazquez)
962 TAM / 961 CWS Over 8 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
** 2* TOTAL ** (OVER -110...Shields vs Vazquez)
I know that many of the shops are still using 8.5, with the Under heavily favored...and in that spot, I would suggest making this a 1* Bet instead...Those who have access to Cris or The Greek should have no problem getting OVER 8 just like we did...VR
Thu, 10/02/08 - 2:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
962 TAM (-176) Sportsbetting.com vs 961 CWS
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER ** (Shields vs Vazquez)
