UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn II

[layinwood]

Ghost, I think Davis could win by outstriking Diaz. I'm not a big fan of Diaz although I do think he has talent but I don't think he can outstrike Davis. Actually I think if he tries he's going to get banged around pretty good. Davis loss to Saunders concerns me but his other two most recent losses to Hardy and Swick are what I consider ok losses. I'm not saying if this was a even odds fight I would be on Davis but I honestly think these two are close to even and since I'm geting 175 coming back I like it.

So for the odds I really think Davis can win two rounds and the decision.

 

[rrc]

Not too long ago Pinny had Randy in the -740 range.

Currently -570.

Is there any solid reasoning behind this move, or are people just taking a shot on the huge plus money on Toney.

Thanks.

 

[kickserv]

rrc......Read above as to the odds of kickserv and the 4 way...that'll tell ya all ya need to know

 

[kegray1]

If odds start dropping on Couture/Toney fight then I don't think it is because money is coming in on Toney.
I think it is because no money is coming in on either side.
Not sure Toney is worth any play under 10-1 and nobody likes betting 750 to win 100.

 

[gardenweasel]

I don't know what to think of this UFC. For the first time in a long time I find myself liking quite a few fights. I've been having success taking just 1 and maybe 2 bets per event but in this one I like too many.

I think Davis has a legit chance vs Diaz. I like Maynard, especially since it's a 3 rounder. I like BJ a LOT but will do like GW said and bring down the odds with Randy in a parlay. I also like Maia and unless something changes will probably make him a pretty good size play. I know he has a chance of getting KO'd because his striking isn't as good but in all reality if you take one stupid jump kick or whatever it was vs Nate that got him KOd then he really has done well vs strikers. If it goes to the ground it won't last long. I don't see his oppenent keeping it standing for the full 3.

i have to see the weigh in.....i reading that miranda is 6`4" ,but unless all he`s been fighting all beanpoles,i`m thinking that might be at least an inch or two off....he doesn`t look skinny...but at 6`4' and 185,he should look thinner...

isn`t it funny how quickly public perception can change?....maia was mythical before marquardt and silva....marquardt was a bit of a fluke...and silva is...well,silva....

i watched video of miranda and i don`t see the great striking...he clicnches and takes guys down and then does damage...but from outside,i didn`t see all that much...

if he has to clinch with maia,that`s what maia would want(you`d think?)...maia wants to get his hands on the guy....

but still,lots of love for miranda on the net....

also some interest in john salter because of his wrestling/grappling acumen......

 

[The Sponge]

http://mmafrenzy.com/ufc-video/

 

[Coach_K]

Did anyone watch the press conference? I missed it and want to know a recap. I just caught the last few seconds of the square offs.

Maynard acted like a dick and will get beat by elbows to the noggin
Couture is taller than Toney which I didnt know and that is a safe bet.
Edgar looked uncomfortable with the belt and wanted to get out of there. Couldnt tell if he was scarred or just not into the media thing, but he is not beating BJ again. This is a different Penn and if a bad cardio Penn can go 4 rounds with GSP he can go the distance with Edgar.

 

[The Sponge]

Did anyone watch the press conference? I missed it and want to know a recap. I just caught the last few seconds of the square offs.

Maynard acted like a dick and will get beat by elbows to the noggin
Couture is taller than Toney which I didnt know and that is a safe bet.
Edgar looked uncomfortable with the belt and wanted to get out of there. Couldnt tell if he was scarred or just not into the media thing, but he is not beating BJ again. This is a different Penn and if a bad cardio Penn can go 4 rounds with GSP he can go the distance with Edgar.

missed the first ten minutes but here is what i saw. Toney is a clown and it seemed like Dana enjoyed his antics till a certain point and was hoping Toney would finally shut up cause it look like Dana was starting to feel uncomfortable. . Just silly stuff Toney was saying. Penn looks extremely confident. Edgar is Edgar. didn't notice anything one way or another. Same with Colture. Florian was himself. Classy straight forward guy. Maynard did seem to be the dick out of the bunch. he said he had a few more pounds to lose and was pretty much starving. Maynard just seemed grumpy but i guess that could be expected. I was a little surprised that Florian and Maynard looked about the same size. Oh and showdown Joe said nothing about Kyle from Vegas. Lastly every one was wondering if Kegray would call :shrug:

 

[kickserv]

No worries I told Showdown to kick Penn in the balls.....and from all accounts he did.

Penn will use this as an excuse on Saturday night.

 

[The Sponge]

Tape

http://mmajunkie.com/news/20414/wat...ference-live-on-mmajunkie-com-at-3-p-m-et.mma

 

[layinwood]

Record since start of 2009 40-25 +44.08 units

Opinions 4-4 +2.9 units(always .5 unit play)


Parlay
BJ -290
Randy -630 Risking 2 units to win 1.1 units

Opinions for .5 unit
Davis +177
Maia -195
Maynard +145

I think BJ wins easily and if I need to be exact I'll say it's by sub. Randy better not screw this up for me because I'm really not reducing much risk by adding him with BJ.

Like I said before I think Davis is a 50/50 fight with Diaz. Diaz should be smoked standing and could have a difficult time getting this to the ground if he needs.

Maia should win this and I really want to make him a 2 unit play but the line is a little too steep right now. If it moves in my favor I'll up my bet. If Miranda does get in the clinch with Maia then I think he's in trouble. Maia tossed Sonnen to the floor out of the clinch, I don't see why he can't do it to Miranda.

Maynard hmmm, well it's an odds based bet. I find myself betting on wrestlers even though I don't like watching them. I think he will over power Kenflo anytime he wants. The strength difference in this fight will be huge. There is no way Kenny stops Maynard from taking him down. The question is whether or not Maynard can avoid subs and elbows to the head for three rounds. I say Maynard wins but is bloody as hell at the end of the fight.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

BJ Penn is going to make quick work of Edgar. This fight doesn't go past 3 rounds. He's going to use his size and strength as an advantage in this fight.

I see a submission happening and a dominate performance.

 

[Oddessa]

If odds start dropping on Couture/Toney fight then I don't think it is because money is coming in on Toney.
I think it is because no money is coming in on either side.
Not sure Toney is worth any play under 10-1 and nobody likes betting 750 to win 100.

they have been betting Toney at few places I've been looking at......most books dont just move a line off of "air"...

I suspect if the line is dropping based on information, someones strong opinion, or money...but no one moves off a solid number just to get a bet without some kind of opinion or money behind it. Especially the bigger books..

 

[kegray1]

they have been betting Toney at few places I've been looking at......most books dont just move a line off of "air"...

I suspect if the line is dropping based on information, someones strong opinion, or money...but no one moves off a solid number just to get a bet without some kind of opinion or money behind it. Especially the bigger books..

Well the odds are going down at most books and I have not heard any expert pick Toney and I can count the number of Toney backers on 1 finger.
And that would be Toney himself.

 

[The Sponge]

Well the odds are going down at most books and I have not heard any expert pick Toney and I can count the number of Toney backers on 1 finger.
And that would be Toney himself.

u would think money would be on Randy with Parlay's but then again how many of them offer parlays? When i was 16 and just started betting i believed the lines moved with the money. When i turned 18 i realized i would never believe another word out of a big books mouth.

 

[kegray1]

BJ Penn is going to make quick work of Edgar. This fight doesn't go past 3 rounds. He's going to use his size and strength as an advantage in this fight.

I see a submission happening and a dominate performance.

Nobody has ever made quick work of Edgar. In fact nobody has finished him so why is Penn going to be able to dominate him this time around after being dominated last time himself?

And Edgar has been in the cage with some serious competition of guys who know how to finish fights: Penn,Sherk,Maynard,Franca,Fisher,Griffin,Miller and he beat them all except tough decision loss to the decision master Gray Maynard.

Not saying Penn can't or will not win, but to just say he is going to dominate a guy like Edgar is purely speculation.
Of course so is gambling on mma. :142smilie

Bucs--
You going to jump on some FIBA action. :0074

 

[Ghost Kid]

Nobody has ever made quick work of Edgar. In fact nobody has finished him so why is Penn going to be able to dominate him this time around after being dominated last time himself?
...

Dominated the last time? Which fight Penn-Edgar 1? Who dominated that fight? Nobody from my eyes.
:shrug:

 

[layinwood]

Nobody has ever made quick work of Edgar. In fact nobody has finished him so why is Penn going to be able to dominate him this time around after being dominated last time himself?

And Edgar has been in the cage with some serious competition of guys who know how to finish fights: Penn,Sherk,Maynard,Franca,Fisher,Griffin,Miller and he beat them all except tough decision loss to the decision master Gray Maynard.

Not saying Penn can't or will not win, but to just say he is going to dominate a guy like Edgar is purely speculation.
Of course so is gambling on mma. :142smilie

Bucs--
You going to jump on some FIBA action. :0074

First, Frankie didn't dominate BJ last time out. A lot of people thought BJ won. Like I said before, I had Frankie last time and I was worried about losing so I'm pretty sure he didn't dominate BJ.

I agree, Frankie has fought some great competition but NONE of those guys are anywhere close to BJ when he's on point. Yeah he had one bad loss to Frankie, other than that most of his losses have come to bigger guys.(not just bigger guys but the best bigger guys. GSP, Machida) Everyone dumps on BJ(I don't like him myself) but he if he stayed at 155 his whole career he would be no differnt from GSP and Fedor. He had a let down Keg, don't let it mess your betting up man. He is the most dominate 155er ever and will dominate this fight.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Ghost, I think Davis could win by outstriking Diaz. I'm not a big fan of Diaz although I do think he has talent but I don't think he can outstrike Davis. Actually I think if he tries he's going to get banged around pretty good. Davis loss to Saunders concerns me but his other two most recent losses to Hardy and Swick are what I consider ok losses. I'm not saying if this was a even odds fight I would be on Davis but I honestly think these two are close to even and since I'm geting 175 coming back I like it.

So for the odds I really think Davis can win two rounds and the decision.

Reasonable. Makes sense. Thanks layin.
:0074

 

[layinwood]

Anyone want to take a stab at an avatar bet. I'm willing to take dogs from the ones I've posted and they're not small so come on MJers!