UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn II

[The Sponge]

Here is my take on the Penn fight. Frankie has the style to frustrate the hell out of a guy like Penn and i wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't happen again in this fight. Will it be enuf for the win? I don't think so but not enuf to take those high odds. I will sit the sidelines on this one as well as the Florian Maynard fight. To close to call. i think this is a tough betting card. I might just try to dissect this fight Nick Osipczak vs. Greg Soto

 

[The Sponge]

here kick u get off on these

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=585101814312

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Nobody has ever made quick work of Edgar. In fact nobody has finished him so why is Penn going to be able to dominate him this time around after being dominated last time himself?

And Edgar has been in the cage with some serious competition of guys who know how to finish fights: Penn,Sherk,Maynard,Franca,Fisher,Griffin,Miller and he beat them all except tough decision loss to the decision master Gray Maynard.

Not saying Penn can't or will not win, but to just say he is going to dominate a guy like Edgar is purely speculation.
Of course so is gambling on mma. :142smilie

Bucs--
You going to jump on some FIBA action. :0074

tbqh, i haven't bet on a sport in months. i couldn't tell u the last time i did. gave it up man.

 

[kegray1]

First, Frankie didn't dominate BJ last time out. A lot of people thought BJ won. Like I said before, I had Frankie last time and I was worried about losing so I'm pretty sure he didn't dominate BJ.

I agree, Frankie has fought some great competition but NONE of those guys are anywhere close to BJ when he's on point. Yeah he had one bad loss to Frankie, other than that most of his losses have come to bigger guys.(not just bigger guys but the best bigger guys. GSP, Machida) Everyone dumps on BJ(I don't like him myself) but he if he stayed at 155 his whole career he would be no differnt from GSP and Fedor. He had a let down Keg, don't let it mess your betting up man. He is the most dominate 155er ever and will dominate this fight.

I should not have said domination but control by Edgar but I did have it 4-1 as I thought he was just the more active fighter and he seemed to be in total control.

Maybe it seemed more than usual because not used to seeing BJ get worked at 155.

Like I said my play on Edgar is simply an odds play. I think he is tough as hell to finish and BJ has shown in the past that you can take rounds 4 and 5 from him if you get past the 3rd.

If I was going to play Penn then I would probably play Penn +244 to win by decision. :scared
But my play is already on Edgar and might add a small Edgar by decision +365.
Those are some nice odds considering he is a 3-1 fav and Edgar has never been finished and could not be finished in the first meeting.

 

[Coach_K]

missed the first ten minutes but here is what i saw. Toney is a clown and it seemed like Dana enjoyed his antics till a certain point and was hoping Toney would finally shut up cause it look like Dana was starting to feel uncomfortable. . Just silly stuff Toney was saying. Penn looks extremely confident. Edgar is Edgar. didn't notice anything one way or another. Same with Colture. Florian was himself. Classy straight forward guy. Maynard did seem to be the dick out of the bunch. he said he had a few more pounds to lose and was pretty much starving. Maynard just seemed grumpy but i guess that could be expected. I was a little surprised that Florian and Maynard looked about the same size. Oh and showdown Joe said nothing about Kyle from Vegas. Lastly every one was wondering if Kegray would call :shrug:

Thanks Sponge

 

[gardenweasel]

you know what you`ve got with toney...stands in the pocket,slips punches and counters....

that`s it...he`s fat...obviously not in mma shape....and i`m positive that he hasn`t a clue what to do on his back...

this is what we know....all randy has to do is avoid the first shot or so,close distance and grab toney...he has every advantage in the clinch and on the ground...

to be clear,this is a f-cking free payday dana is giving him...on a silver platter...

if he somehow f-cks this up,he should be banned from the sport..period...

 

[The Sponge]

you know what you`ve got with toney...stands in the pocket,slips punches and counters....

that`s it...he`s fat...obviously not in mma shape....and i`m positive that he hasn`t a clue what to do on his back...

this is what we know....all randy has to do is avoid the first shot or so,close distance and grab toney...he has every advantage in the clinch and on the ground...

to be clear,this is a f-cking free payday dana is giving him...on a silver platter...

if he somehow f-cks this up,he should be banned from the sport..period...

One thing that cracks me up is this so called power Toney now seems to have. I realize he is wearing the small gloves and all but some guys are making him sound like he has Tyson like power. Like one shot to Randy's ribs will cripple him.
Toney hands must have grown over night for this fight.
You do have more balls than me tho Weasy. I know it seems like a slam dunk and it should but anything can happen. If this slipped to 3 to 1 (and it won't) i would jump in but this line is to high for my taste. (bet cris has it 7 to 1) I truly believe that Randy isn't foollish enuf to stand and has some of the best game planning in the business but unless he gives it to me in writing, i will pass. Heck Randy even stood with Belfort. Randy use to box in the army and my luck he might want to stand just to see if he could and that is all Toney needs is that one opportunity. I jump in and Randy has a Gurgel moment :facepalm:

 

[gardenweasel]

One thing that cracks me up is this so called power Toney now seems to have. I realize he is wearing the small gloves and all but some guys are making him sound like he has Tyson like power. Like one shot to Randy's ribs will cripple him.
Toney hands must have grown over night for this fight.
You do have more balls than me tho Weasy. I know it seems like a slam dunk and it should but anything can happen. If this slipped to 3 to 1 (and it won't) i would jump in but this line is to high for my taste. (bet cris has it 7 to 1) I truly believe that Randy isn't foollish enuf to stand and has some of the best game planning in the business but unless he gives it to me in writing, i will pass. Heck Randy even stood with Belfort. Randy use to box in the army and my luck he might want to stand just to see if he could and that is all Toney needs is that one opportunity. I jump in and Randy has a Gurgel moment :facepalm:

i`m not betting this clusterf-ck straight up...i`m parlaying it...

couture showed some serious cognitive dissonance vs liddell(2&3) and tim sylvia...luckily for him,he landed a big shot right off the bat against sylvia and that set the tone for that fight(of course sylvia is slower than a freight train on a dirt road,but,standing with him can be a crapshoot)......

imo,it was not great strategy standing with sylvia....couture is a hard head....

 

[layinwood]

i`m not betting this clusterf-ck straight up...i`m parlaying it...

couture showed some serious cognitive dissonance vs liddell(2&3) and tim sylvia...luckily for him,he landed a big shot right off the bat against sylvia and that set the tone for that fight(of course sylvia is slower than a freight train on a dirt road,but,standing with him can be a crapshoot)......

imo,it was not great strategy standing with sylvia....couture is a hard head....

GW, what is the other leg or legs of your parlay with Randy?

 

[gardenweasel]

GW, what is the other leg or legs of your parlay with Randy?

i parlayed him with maia when he was in the -500 range...but i`m getting cold feet based on all the miranda love...i could always hedge a bit...

also with maidana in boxing(huge fave...odds have moved a little)/osipczak(even though this is a hometown fight for soto)...........you could use "couture inside" at around -490....

osipczak catches my eye...if you go back and check the rbr`s with both osipczak and soto vs riddle,osipczak seemed to be the superior fighter....he was taken down but he reversed several times and did damage with his striking...riddle appeared to be a superior version of soto(maybe soto has better jits)...and osip had the benefit of being "stood up" from bottom position pretty quickly by the judges at home...

of course that was in britain...this is in soto`s hometown...

i hate betting against hometown fighters in fights that potentially go to the judges....and there are a slew of hometown fighters on this card...

 

[gardenweasel]

i parlayed him with maia when he was in the -500 range...but i`m getting cold feet based on all the miranda love...i could always hedge a bit...

also with maidana in boxing(huge fave...odds have moved a little)/osipczak(even though this is a hometown fight for soto)...........you could use "couture inside" at around -490....

osipczak catches my eye...if you go back and check the rbr`s with both osipczak and soto vs riddle,osipczak seemed to be the superior fighter....he was taken down but he reversed several times and did damage with his striking...riddle appeared to be a superior version of soto(maybe soto has better jits)...and osip had the benefit of being "stood up" from bottom position pretty quickly by the judges at home...

of course that was in britain...this is in soto`s hometown...

i hate betting against hometown fighters in fights that potentially go to the judges....and there are a slew of hometown fighters on this card...

edit...soto`s from n.j....not mass....my bad...i`m on osipczak...

 

[kegray1]

Well I wanted to get a play in on Randy but wasn't willing to risk -650 to win 100 even though I feel it is safe so I am gonna make a small play on this:

Randy Couture to win by submission +110 for 50 wins 55.

If or should I say when Randy takes him down then I would figure the first thing Randy is thinking is how to position him for a RNC or armbar.
I don't think Randy will be trying to ground and pound him knowing his submission defense should be down right pathetic.
I think the only thing that could beat Randy by submission is Randy by tko in a ground and pound.

 

[kickserv]

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[kickserv]

BJ Penn:mj10:


Always something with this fuck......always something:jerkit:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

BlowJob is always entertaining. Listening to Frankie, Maynard and KenFlo talk made me want to go back to bed. Boring fux.

 

[The Sponge]

edit...soto`s from n.j....not mass....my bad...i`m on osipczak...

i really liked Osipczak in this one but im not getting much film on him and Soto. You have any Weasy? The one thing i am really worried about is Soto is a lay and prayer and if Osipczak can't stop a takedown i don't want anything to do with this wager. I remember the Story fight with Osipczak but Story doesn't take ya down all that much. I hate to get six fived here but it looks like he handle riddles takedowns but i wish i had some film of that fight cause i don't remember it and is Riddles wrestling that good? these English guys ya just never know if they can stop a takedown. I did watch one Soto fight and had a hard time staying awake as he laid and prayed almost the whole fight and has some nice takedowns. Man betting a Brit and have to worry about takedowns is not always a fun thing to do.

 

[The Sponge]

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can't see anything Kicker

 

[kegray1]

BlowJob is always entertaining. Listening to Frankie, Maynard and KenFlo talk made me want to go back to bed. Boring fux.

I am afraid the actual fight with Kenflo and Maynard might be one of the most boring close fight we have seen in a long time.
Kenflo is not known for taking fights the distance but Maynard sure as hell is.

 

[gardenweasel]

i really liked Osipczak in this one but im not getting much film on him and Soto. You have any Weasy? The one thing i am really worried about is Soto is a lay and prayer and if Osipczak can't stop a takedown i don't want anything to do with this wager. I remember the Story fight with Osipczak but Story doesn't take ya down all that much. I hate to get six fived here but it looks like he handle riddles takedowns but i wish i had some film of that fight cause i don't remember it and is Riddles wrestling that good? these English guys ya just never know if they can stop a takedown. I did watch one Soto fight and had a hard time staying awake as he laid and prayed almost the whole fight and has some nice takedowns. Man betting a Brit and have to worry about takedowns is not always a fun thing to do.

soto is well put together...he has decent wrestling skills..osip has better hands and a height advantage..

lay and pray is definitely the worry......in britain,osipczak was taken down by riddle....he worked free once or twice(if recollection serves me and from what i re-read)and actually ended up on top a few times......but he also got benefit from the ref (in england) with some fairly early stand ups....

when soto fought riddle,riddle was pretty much in control throughout...

when osipczak fought riddle,osipczak(based on sherdog`s rbr) was winning the fight...

what i do when i can`t get video and guys have fought in the ufc or other larger organizations,is i pull up a guy`s record on sherdog....i click on the fight card(on the right) i`m interested in and then usually theres a link on the next page that takes you to the round by round breakdown of all the fights on that particular card...it refreshes your memory and gives you a feel for how a guy did vs that opponent...more so than just a win or a loss.......that is,when you can get it to work...the sherdog site is getting more and more difficult to navigate(at least for me)

because dana`s obsessive about his property,it can be difficult pulling up video of some ufc fights...youtube`s a no-go...

i was curious about riddle`s d.q. loss to osipczak and based on the rbr,osipczak did pretty well and would have won the fight regardless....

of course,being in britain,it sounded like osip got the benefit of some fairly quick restarts(which he may not get in the people`s republic of massachusetts)....

and some think osipczak actually beat rick story(split decision loss)....

so,it`s going to be a competitive fight...i expect soto to benefit from some of the guinea fan support that frankie edgar`s presence on the card should generate...there`s only around a 200 mile commute between n.j. and beantown....

 

[gardenweasel]

fyi..

a "couture inside the distance/maia via submission" parlay pays a little better than 2-1 at 5 dimes....

/picked it up from reading some commentary from other sources..