UFC 128: "Shogun vs. Jones", March 19th, Newark, N.J.

[Ghost Kid]

Actually the last time Shogun had knee surgery he came back and kicked Machida's ass. That was his second surgery, first was Forrest.

:0074
Good to know. I wasn't aware.
Champ seems to be in a good frame of mind recently, too.

New baby if I'm not mistaken. Feeding kids a solid motivation.

No question. Rua is a beast. And Jones could be GREAT. Fireworks me thinks.

 

[gardenweasel]

that was an excellent conversation,jr and g.k...interesting stuff...

i`m thinking that if rua`s knee is o.k.,he`ll be doing an awful lot of kicking....it worked against machida.....

he doesn`t slow jones down with the kicks,not sure i like his chances...he won`t out-wrestle jones....

looking at rua`s ufc resume and it doesn`t exactly take your breath away....

a split with machida(a non-wrestler),beat a faded liddell(lost his last 3 out of 4 going into the rua fight including a loss to jardine)...he struggled mightily with mark("rust in peace") coleman...and was out-lasted by the same forrest griffin that was embarrassed by a smaller version of jones(a. silva).....

he`s giving up 3 inches in height....and only has one submission in his career...jones already has 3..

and i don`t think they`re fighting pride rules...so he won`t be stomping anybody...

rua better come out kicking....he`s got a long road to hoe...

 

[The Sponge]

that was an excellent conversation,jr and g.k...interesting stuff...

i`m thinking that if rua`s knee is o.k.,he`ll be doing an awful lot of kicking....it worked against machida.....

he doesn`t slow jones down with the kicks,not sure i like his chances...he won`t out-wrestle jones....

looking at rua`s ufc resume and it doesn`t exactly take your breath away....

a split with machida(a non-wrestler),beat a faded liddell(lost his last 3 out of 4 going into the rua fight including a loss to jardine)...he struggled mightily with mark("rust in peace") coleman...and was out-lasted by the same forrest griffin that was embarrassed by a smaller version of jones(a. silva).....

he`s giving up 3 inches in height....and only has one submission in his career...jones already has 3..

and i don`t think they`re fighting pride rules...so he won`t be stomping anybody...

rua better come out kicking....he`s got a long road to hoe...

Ho do u compare Rua today from the Rua who faced Coleman and Forrest? What in the world do fights two and three years ago have to do with what is happening today? He would kill Forrest if they fought today. Just like Overeem would kill Lidell. Silly shit.

 

[The Sponge]

i rememeber just a short time ago nobody thought Machida would lose in the next five years and Rua destroyed him. Beat him impressively. I think guys get beat by Jones before they step in the ring. Don't think this will be the case with Rua. I'll pass on this one and enjoy the fight.

 

[THE_THONG]

there's on an article on jon jones at wall street journal online


jon jones = upside bet

 

[gardenweasel]

Ho do u compare Rua today from the Rua who faced Coleman and Forrest? What in the world do fights two and three years ago have to do with what is happening today? He would kill Forrest if they fought today. Just like Overeem would kill Lidell. Silly shit.

you really think machida and jones are comparable?.....a one-dimensional guy like machida?....you think anybody that rua`s seen in the ufc is comparable to jones?...i don`t...

machida is the only real fighter that rua`s faced....and he had the benefit of seeing him twice before beating him..you can adapt to machida...once you`ve seen him...you can out-physical him...rua ran over him...

other than that,he`s been in extremely soft...extremely soft...i agree that griffin is way overrated..yet he beat rua...

do you think that under any circumstances that coleman or griffin could even compete with jones?(aside from hobbling him before the fight)....

rua could win...if he kicks...or if he lands a hail mary kick or shot....which will be hard given the height disadvantage...

and truthfully...how great was overeem pre-steroids?...he was an upper-middle rung pride guy...he mostly always lost to the best guys(i never considered belfort as "great")...hell,he wasn`t even a heavyweight until he went on the p.e.d.`s....

the guy is the worst kind of fraud...he went from 205 to 255?....50 pounds of muscle...and got faster....:142smilie

 

[Ghost Kid]

<object width="640" height="390"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/f1HzfJmkDdY&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f1HzfJmkDdY&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></embed></object>


"I operated my knee on the 10th of June. ...I feel no pain at all, and I've been training 100% for the last five months. Ready for war."

 

[jr11]

you really think machida and jones are comparable?.....a one-dimensional guy like machida?....you think anybody that rua`s seen in the ufc is comparable to jones?...i don`t...

machida is the only real fighter that rua`s faced....and he had the benefit of seeing him twice before beating him..you can adapt to machida...once you`ve seen him...you can out-physical him...rua ran over him...

other than that,he`s been in extremely soft...extremely soft...i agree that griffin is way overrated..yet he beat rua...

do you think that under any circumstances that coleman or griffin could even compete with jones?(aside from hobbling him before the fight)....

rua could win...if he kicks...or if he lands a hail mary kick or shot....which will be hard given the height disadvantage...

and truthfully...how great was overeem pre-steroids?...he was an upper-middle rung pride guy...he mostly always lost to the best guys(i never considered belfort as "great")...hell,he wasn`t even a heavyweight until he went on the p.e.d.`s....

the guy is the worst kind of fraud...he went from 205 to 255?....50 pounds of muscle...and got faster....:142smilie

Regarding Machida, and I agree with you about being one dimensional, however many of the so called MMA experts and websites thought nobody was going to catch up to Machida for years to come. Rua shut him down twice, but then again styles make fights and/or games. My whole point in this discussion, I had full intentions of taking Jones, but the odds make even me want to take a flyer on Rua, afterall he is the champ and if I am able to win a few $'s on b-ball by then most likely I will put at least a few hundred on Rua. Jones is beast and will be dominant at LHW as long as he will be able to continue to make weight as he ages, but is this TOO early at this point right now to take this huge step up in competition? Will he be able to handle what Rua can bring, can he take a punch, what about subs from the guard as most likely he will be able to take Rua down? Should be interesting...

 

[layinwood]

machida is the only real fighter that rua`s faced....and he had the benefit of seeing him twice before beating him..you can adapt to machida...once you`ve seen him...you can out-physical him...rua ran over him...

other than that,he`s been in extremely soft...extremely soft...i agree that griffin is way overrated..yet he beat rua...

So Machida is the only real fighter Rua has faced and he flat out floored him when nobody has come close to touching him. Machida hadn't even been hit. Who has Jones faced that close to Machida? Machida went from being unbeatable to what? Bader or Vera is the best Jones has faced. Bader is as one dimensional as it gets, Vera really is nothing but a low level guy for the UFC so what's that proved. Look at who Shogun had walked through by the time he was Jones age.

Like I've said before Jones may win because he is talented beyond belief but with his experience, length of time to get ready and mainly the line this has Rua bet all over it.

GW, you know Rua will kick the crap out of Jones lead leg.(I need to copy and paste my bet from the MMA thread posted before) Jones lead leg is a lot further out then most guys. A lot like Machida does his but Jones squats down a little wider. If he doesn't change that he's going to get that leg pounded.

Shogun isn't just a good fighter, he's a great fighter. He's what Wandy used to be plus some. He has everything there is for a fighter to have. He can stand using his hands and feet, he's great in the clinch, his core strength standing and on the ground is outstanding and he has a good ground game subs and striking. He also has great chin. Give me the guy with all of those that has also been on this stage several times vs a guy who is on the stage for the first time.(and like Machida hasn't had that chin tapped on)

 

[gardenweasel]

So Machida is the only real fighter Rua has faced and he flat out floored him when nobody has come close to touching him. Machida hadn't even been hit. Who has Jones faced that close to Machida? Machida went from being unbeatable to what? Bader or Vera is the best Jones has faced. Bader is as one dimensional as it gets, Vera really is nothing but a low level guy for the UFC so what's that proved. Look at who Shogun had walked through by the time he was Jones age.

Like I've said before Jones may win because he is talented beyond belief but with his experience, length of time to get ready and mainly the line this has Rua bet all over it.

GW, you know Rua will kick the crap out of Jones lead leg.(I need to copy and paste my bet from the MMA thread posted before) Jones lead leg is a lot further out then most guys. A lot like Machida does his but Jones squats down a little wider. If he doesn't change that he's going to get that leg pounded.

Shogun isn't just a good fighter, he's a great fighter. He's what Wandy used to be plus some. He has everything there is for a fighter to have. He can stand using his hands and feet, he's great in the clinch, his core strength standing and on the ground is outstanding and he has a good ground game subs and striking. He also has great chin. Give me the guy with all of those that has also been on this stage several times vs a guy who is on the stage for the first time.(and like Machida hasn't had that chin tapped on)

i`m not saying rua CAN`T win...i`m just having trouble seeing HOW he beats jones...he can`t soccer kick him...he can`t stomp him(those 2 account for a full 1/4 of rua`s pride stoppages)...that`s taking a nice chunk out of the guy`s repertoire...

jones has around a 3 inch height advantage and around a 10 inch reach advantage...he has the longest reach in ufc history...the reach of a man 7 foot tall....

rua only has one submission in his whole career...

so he`s probably going to have to either out-strike jones on his feet(finding a way to circumvent that reach)...or out-grapple him...i don`t like his chances grappling(after watching jones throw matyushenko and hamill around like ragdolls)....`.

but he can still kick...and it`s mma...they do wear 4 oz gloves...

rua CAN win..everybody has a chance in the octagon...i just think looking at it logically,he has a very difficult task in front of him...and those odds aren`t amazingly generous,imo...

 

[The Sponge]

How has Machida turned into a one deminsional fighter :shrug: He knocks guys out and has some of the best takedowns i ever saw. His kicks are solid and his boxing is pretty good. His quick tripping takedowns are brilliant. He submits guys. How again is he one demisional? Paul Daley is one deminsional. Machida is far from it.

 

[bert07]

<object width="640" height="390"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/f1HzfJmkDdY&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f1HzfJmkDdY&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></embed></object>


"I operated my knee on the 10th of June. ...I feel no pain at all, and I've been training 100% for the last five months. Ready for war."

no habla Spanish
took lots of it but retained none of it

 

[layinwood]

Copied from the Feb News thread. I'll update my record and get my other picks up later in the week.

Well we don't have a thread for it so I'll put it in here now but I just got down for a max bet on Shogun.

Shogun +175 7units


I'm taking a big chance that his knee will be ok which is a hard call being it's his 3rd one but this is a gift at this price. I'm not saying Shogun is a lock but I am saying at this price it doesn't get any better. I've gone back and watched all of Jones fights and I'm more convinced now than I was before that Shogun is the right bet. Jones standup is just OK. His striking isn't very good at all. He does have good kicks but nothing that will change a fight. His sprawl is EXCELLENT because of his length and the way he leans while standing. If he's taken down it will have to be from the clinch which is where Shogun excels. His take downs are very good but he hasn't been in one fight where I would consider the guy good on the ground. Vera would probably be the best but he's not close to Shogun. Some of the guys are good wrestlers but not good off their back(see Bader). Shogun is good off of his back and very aggressive.

I think the one thing we'll see early and often are leg kicks from Shogun. Jones keeps his leg very far out in front to give himself a good base but that also leaves him open for big kicks. I also expect to see the 1 2 punch from Shogun followed by his right leg kick. IMO he does this better and with more power than anyone in MMA. From there it will allow him to clinch and that's where he'll make his money.

I have more to say but figured I would post this play since I just put it in.

 

[bert07]

I would disagree with jones stand up being just ok.
His versatility alone in this department gets him a better grade IMO.
But since he has only fought a couple of name guys its tough to bring a strong argument here.

I just hope bones isn't concerning himself with the media's viewpoint bc they are all but going down on him right now.

 

[layinwood]

I would disagree with jones stand up being just ok.
His versatility alone in this department gets him a better grade IMO.
But since he has only fought a couple of name guys its tough to bring a strong argument here.

What makes you think Jones stand up is better than just ok? We haven't really seen him strike especially vs someone who has good striking themselves. He's taken those guys down as quickly as possible. He stood some with Bader but judging his striking vs Bader isn't saying much good or bad.

 

[bert07]

His quickness, use of standing elbows and reach. His power or lack of I can't comment on due to not seeing knock outs from him. I haven't seen all the fights like you have so.... But just from the fights I have seen, I mean he isn't exactly getting tagged either. Sure Rua has power but I just don't think he will be able to catch up to jones to use it effectively enough.

I do buy into jones being the future of mma. An unorthodox striker who is dangerous from any position it seems like. I seem to always side with quickness over power so...that might be my flaw.

Not an MMA expert at all just giving my 2 cents.

I can see jones going 5 rounds with out clinching much if he doesn't want to. Rua's next big advantage is kicks, he might land some but I think jones is quick enough to counter here.

I hope to get jones at around -150 /-170 or maybe take him within the distance.

GL

 

[kickserv]

Jones/Rua goes 5 round distance $3.50 (+250) :shrug:

 

[gardenweasel]

His quickness, use of standing elbows and reach. His power or lack of I can't comment on due to not seeing knock outs from him. I haven't seen all the fight like you have so.... But just from the fights I have seen, I mean he isn't exactly getting tagged either. Sure Rua has power but I just don't think he will be able to catch up to jones to use it effectively enough.

I do buy into jones being the future of mma. An unorthodox striker who is dangerous from any position it seems like. I seem to always side with quickness over power so...that might be my flaw.

Not an MMA expert at all just giving my 2 cents.

I can see jones going 5 rounds with out clinching much if he doesn't want to. Rua's next big advantage is kicks, he might land some but I think jones is quick enough to counter here.

I hope to get jones at around -150 /-170 or maybe take him within the distance.

GL

i think he might want to....he`s so long....those knees can get very high....

maybe inexperience will play a part....i don`t know...i do know that if i were a rua backer,his cardio would be a concern...this will be a much more physically demanding fight than machida 1....

may the best man win...

 

[layinwood]

Updated record 46-34-2 +40.89 units

opinions 17-17+3.25 (always .5 unit plays)



This Rua play is about 3 or 4 more units than I would normally do on a play but the line dictates that I do it. I really thought he would be in the -150 range when the line came out. I waited to see what it would but feel comfortable where I go it. A partner of mine that only plays big hammered it when it first came out and is probably going to do it again.

I may play something else but there is enough riding on this fight that I'll probably hold off.


If you like Jones and think he'll win then you should bet. If he does win this will be the last time we see him sub 350 for a longgggg time.

 

[The Sponge]

Not sure about the clinch being Shoguns advantage Lay. Jones has the Greco Roman pedigree and the ease he has thrown around some of these guys is just stunning and these were not clowns getting tossed around. He has freak strength in those hands of his. To me i think the athleticism might be to much for Shogun here. I know Machida is elusive but Machida doesn't have this massive reach.