UFC 84: MAY 24th, Las Vegas...Picks and Analysis

[nj]

congrats to gardenweasel on machida and silva! you also played penn? Seems like it was a bad night for many playing the dogs. i tagged along with the board for fun and played tito and jardine, lost pretty bad.

a few months ago i chased my daily losses with A. Silva just because he's straight up gangsta, knowing absolutely nothing about Henderson.

Tonight I chased with a massive play on BJ Penn just because he's not so flabby-looking anymore, knowing even less about Sherk.

lol. the only time i win anything on ufc is blind bets based on how cool i think the favourite is. the gods have spared me twice on ufc betting, im out. but it's been fun times.

 

[kegray1]

Why is everybody picking the 3 hard fights on this card when there is one fight that seems to good to be true:
The African Assassin Sokoudjou(-250) over Nakamura---This will be a 1stR KO. I HAVE LITTLE OR NO DOUBT.

As for the other 3 fights:
BJ handles Sean with no issues. BJ only tired when he put on weight abd moved up. Sean off the roids so no telling on his stamina.

Wandy over Jardine-- Wandy will be all over him which is not what Chuck did to Keith. Keith can't finish Wandy and Wandy pressure will keep Keith from winning a decision.

Machida over Tito.-- If this goes to the cards and it is somewhat close, does anyone think Tito will get the decision in his last UFC fight. Tito needs a stoppage and that wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Not gonna brag about picking all winners since they were all favs,but my write ups were dead on.

Soko 1stR KO-check
No way Tito wins a decision-check
Wandy jumps on Jardine-check
BJ dominates Sean-check

Too bad I only bet Soko,but hit him hard.

 

[gardenweasel]

congrats to gardenweasel on machida and silva! you also played penn? Seems like it was a bad night for many playing the dogs. i tagged along with the board for fun and played tito and jardine, lost pretty bad.

a few months ago i chased my daily losses with A. Silva just because he's straight up gangsta, knowing absolutely nothing about Henderson.

Tonight I chased with a massive play on BJ Penn just because he's not so flabby-looking anymore, knowing even less about Sherk.

lol. the only time i win anything on ufc is blind bets based on how cool i think the favourite is. the gods have spared me twice on ufc betting, im out. but it's been fun times.

no...actually i flailed around on the penn fight...i picked sherk to have a real shot at the upset...bet him...then got cold feet and played penn by 1st and 2nd round stoppage....

then i got even colder feet and flailed some more with a 3rd round b.j. stoppage..thankfully..

so,i was completely clueless on penn/sherk...i was 1 second from losing penn/sherk from every conceivable angle...

a piss poor job of prognosticating on penn/sherk....

one thing i can`t understand..what happened to sherk?.....he tried one takedown,and then resigned himself to striking with the better striker?....

he fought in a way that had no chance of tiring penn when it got into the later rounds...which was his only shot...

penn said in the intro to the show that he had gotten into sherk`s head...and that he`d take his heart....

and it looked like that`s exactly what he did...

i came out on the plus side,but not by much...i had a little on hatton inside the distance earlier tonight and that lost...

one good thing is that silva and machida set up some future parlays...so,it could turn out well....

based strictly on tonight,i won around $45...and the ppv was $44.95........lol

 

[rawli007]

Nice job kegray... u WERE dead on... ur welcome here anytime :mj07: maybe ill take ur pix next time...

I did pretty well myself (on the predictions), but lost a little over a unit on the night... missed on the Tito prediction (and bet), but i cant say i fault the guy... he brought it the whole time as Machida almost made me pull my own hair out :mj16: what a frustrating style... and boring for that matter. he hasnt really beaten anyone in the UFC - just outlasts them...

...oh well. he definitely earned my respect as a true competitor in the division... adios 'til next time. i think im getting the hang of MMA betting... slowly but surely. hope to come back strong at UFC 85 and maybe this WEC event coming up (if i make any plays).

:yawn: goodnight all

 

[gardenweasel]

kegray...great night...congrats....you earned the right to crow,tonight...


now,you can ban kickserv from YOUR threads.....:grins:

 

[The Sponge]

ROUSIMAR PALHARES VS. IVAN SALAVERRY

Round 1 - Palhares wastes little time, clinches and then forces his opponent to the ground. After jockeying for position on the ground, he secures side control and then mount. Before he can mount much of an offense, Salaverry gives up his back. He successfully fends off the choke, and short punches do little to help Palhares as he tries to sink it in. However, Palhares finally locks it in. Salaverry looks like he might escape, but his opponent reclaims the position and forces the tap-out. Rousimar Palhares def. Ivan Salaverry via submission (rear-naked choke) -- Round 1, 2:36.

i knew w/ that line change that it was worth betting against Ivan Suckery. oh well....

I almost warned kickserv that I felt like Suckery was a bad call on that 4-man parlay.

where the heck did you get that fight? That isn't what happen. He won by an arm bar. Kid was very impressive.

 

[The Sponge]

sherk`s an idiot...abandoning what got him here...not tiring penn out...

what an a--hole....

wasting his opportunity....

I got so close to betting Penn and taking the juice loss. Just had a bad feeling but kept my bet with Shirk and have to watch a performance like that. Not sure why tito switched that triangle into an armbar.:shrug: That was the first time i ever rooted for him. All that running Machida does is a disgrace and i hope this guy never wins the title because he will be the most boring champ out there.

 

[rawli007]

where the heck did you get that fight? That isn't what happen. He won by an arm bar. Kid was very impressive.

mmajunkie.com .... yes... they were wrong.

pretty cool that PPV showed almost all the prelims this time. i liked that.

 

[gardenweasel]

that was a nice little move yves lavigne pulled off in the tito/machida fight....

now we know for sure that shaving one`s legs doesn`t improve reffing dexterity or aerodynamics....

 

[weepaul]

Not gonna brag about picking all winners since they were all favs,but my write ups were dead on.

Soko 1stR KO-check
No way Tito wins a decision-check
Wandy jumps on Jardine-check
BJ dominates Sean-check

Too bad I only bet Soko,but hit him hard.

Well done sir!!! I stand thoroughly corrected.

I lost around $6,000 on this UFC. I did not know Tito had become Marcelo Garcia overnight. He should have stuck with subs.

Sok is just sooo heavy handed.

I thought if Jardine could last the first 2 minutes of Silva fury, he could win. There is still life in Silva.

The only fight I got correct was BJ and I did not bet on it as the odds had changed from -207 to
-250, the day I decided to bet :mj07:

I did scary bad on this card :scared

I hope some of you Fella's did better than yours truly :shrug:

Well, at least you boys know who to fade for WEC and Elite XC. Do the opposite of me and you will make a fortune :SIB

 

[rawli007]

most likely these are my final plays...if lines change drastically on some fights then I'll add some plays....but I am 90% sure these are my final wagers:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 60-58
Parlays 29-34

+73.10 Joe Rogans



Tito Ortiz beat Lyoto Machida $2.80 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.40 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.55 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sean Sherk beat BJ Penn $3.15 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 4 $36.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 5 $47.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Antonio Mendes beat Thiago Silva $6.25 *half Joe Rogan

Jon Koppenhaver beat Yoshiyuki Yoshida $2.45 *1 Joe Rogan

Kazuhiro Nakamura beat Rameau Sokoudjou $2.75 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #1
-----------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim

odds = $1.91 *2 Joe Rogans


Parlay #2
------------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim
Shane Carwin
Ivan Salaverry

odds = $4.90 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #3
---------------
Wilson Gouveia
Ivan Salaverry

odds = $2.84 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #4
----------------
Sean Sherk
Tito Ortiz
Keith Jardine
Wilson Gouveia

odds = $34.25 *half Joe Rogan

:scared :scared :scared

sorry, kick.... you'll get 'em next time !!!

 

[kickserv]

I got the parlay on Clementi and Kim correct.....what did I get wrong?


Everything else:mj07: :mj07:


So close with Tito.....thought I won that one...he was so damn close to submitting that borefest Machida....damn so close..so close.


Machida =:mj18:


kickserv selections............:00x4

:mj02: :s2:



MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-7
Fighter vs. Fighter 60-64
Parlays 30-37

+61.42 Joe Rogans

 

[kickserv]

alright let's get this out of the way first........

Nice game-plan Sherk, you are a dumb fu**



How in the love of fu** can you have all this time to prepare, and do what he did. What is it with some of these MMA dudes and their mind numbing stupidity. "Hi, my name is Sean Sherk, I am going to try two takedowns in 15 minutes". "Gee this standing thing is working out great, I am receiving 99 jabs in my face, it feels great". "Oh yeah, I love standing here getting picked apart with jabs, I love it so much I am not even going to throw anymore leg kicks".


You are a idiot Sherk......you would have beaten Penn if you had an IQ above 7. Nice game-plan you dumb fu**. Oh and nice corner you have there buddy, your entire team should be fired for that beautiful game-plan, nice very nice. Who cares that you have the cardio of Superman when you have the fight IQ of a gnat.

You tried to take him down 2 times....2 times, you made that cocky Penn look like some sort of god out there.

Lick some elephant anus Sherk.


Next fight......Sherk vs Starnes

 

[kickserv]

moving on to other fights.........

I don't know how anyone could not have been cheering for Tito, I mean how could ya cheer for Machida? I say this now, he's going to be more hated then Tim Sylvia soon. Huge props to Tito for at least trying to do something, and he was so close to winning. And I'll say this, Machida will never win a 5 round fight, by the 3rd round guys start to "figure out" his elusive style. I don't care who he fights in a 5 rounder, he'll lose:SIB Is Machida even a fighter? I mean I think my Grandma may be able to make it to a decision against him:142smilie


No real thoughts on Jardine fight......it didn't last long enough for any thoughts:142smilie Good win for Wandy, he was done if he lost that. But at least Jardine stood in there and fought and didn't do what Machida does.


Thiago Silva is good, but he isn't that good, anybody decent will beat him. He's more hype then a fighter, but he doesn't suck by any means. Bottom line that fight he had didn't say very much, Mendes just ain't that good.



Palhares...nice submission, sweet:scared


Clementi, what's that like 200 fights for that guy now, he's good man, doesn't get much respect, but the guys decent:SIB



Yoshida......very nice submission, nighty night:SIB


Christian Wellisch is still looking for his mouthguard:mj07:

 

[1837]

Recap: 3-2 +125$

Not a great night but not a bad night either...:shrug: Tito was my big deception....

 

[jr11]

I got so close to betting Penn and taking the juice loss. Just had a bad feeling but kept my bet with Shirk and have to watch a performance like that. Not sure why tito switched that triangle into an armbar.:shrug: That was the first time i ever rooted for him. All that running Machida does is a disgrace and i hope this guy never wins the title because he will be the most boring champ out there.

Couldn't agree more about Lyoto. Just painful. If he wins the first round, it's hide and seek from there. Smart and tactical on his part, but not what I want to see for my $$.

As for Tito, I was hoping he got the submission late, but he is a one-trick pony for ground-n-pound only. I might have walked away from the Lyoto's running and left the ring. Is this a fight or what? Take away G-n-P and he is not really that good. Not sure where he goes from here.

BJ Penn is tough, and when he wants it I can't see anyone beating him either, just like GSP and Silva.

 

[layinwood]

Ugh, what a bad night for picks. I was so close once I saw the Pinnacle line jump to taking a small loss and going on Machida as well. I wish I would have now. Tito is done.

I wonder if Machida could make 185? I would love to see him fight Silva, it would be as technical a stand up fight as mma can get.

Sherk, hmmm. I'm pretty sure his bust for roids was legit. He didn't have near the muscle fullness that he usually does. He's still big but not full like before. Lilttle shrimp needs to join Pulver in the 145. Nobody is going to beat BJ at this weight.

I think this is bad for the UFC, you have three guys that are dominant in their weight class(BJ, George and Anderson). It's a lot better when you have two or three guys that you have no clue who's the best and everyone has legit arguements why their guy is. With these three there's just no arguement about it.

Well, I'll take my loss like a man. Tito has really f'd me this year, get the F out Tito. Go fight Kimbo, I will be praying for Kimbo to knock him the hell out.

 

[kegray1]

Sokoudjou called out Shogun. Shogun is probably wondering why a guy who wasn't even on the main card is calling him out??

Machida is boring,but to his credit he had a gameplan unlike Sherk. He was hell bent on not letting Tito take him down and he did get a takedown in the 1st and his kicks were scoring.

Keith Jardine has NO CHIN and Chuck never took advantage of that in their fight.

Rumors are that Wandy is going to drop weight and fight Anderson Silva in his next fight.

 

[The Sponge]

mmajunkie.com .... yes... they were wrong.

pretty cool that PPV showed almost all the prelims this time. i liked that.

that is funny Raw i thought the same thing. I kept getting ready to shut the TV down and up pops another match. I keep telling my buddy "i wonder why they won't show Sokojou(sp). then they show one last match. Boy i wish they would show them all like that. that was nice.

 

[The Sponge]

alright let's get this out of the way first........

Nice game-plan Sherk, you are a dumb fu**



Oh and nice corner you have there buddy, your entire team should be fired for that beautiful game-plan, nice very nice.


s

Kick im listening to that corner in complete disbelief. Just knew every round would be the same and if it went 4 or 5 he would have still stayed standing. Im telling ya against good compition Tito and Shirk have no clue how to take guys down. Maybe they should sit and watch how GSP does it. I know a lot of it is about speed but GSP sometimes follows his punches into a takedown. These two are clowns when it comes to taking guys down when the other guy isn't a scrub.