Hurricane, I agree with you about Hughes but man he sure did look old vs GSP. I would be all over this fight but I'm worried he had the fight taken out of him vs GSP. Alves may not be there quite yet but he's a dangerous fighter that has a bright future. Saying all of that, I see Hughes taking him to the ground and pounding on him for a round or two and then submitting him.
UFC 85: London 02 Arena, 6/7/08
- Thread starter rawli007
- Start date
Matt Hughes at $1.46 (-220) does seem like a good play to me as well. Yes, it is true Hughes is the second biggest as*hole in the UFC (Diego Sanchez #1) but I don't see him losing either. Although I would be more then happy to see him lose.
I think the best play by far is Jason Day at $3.60 (+260). Sweet odds to say the least, I think he's got a real shot to take down Bisping (literally).
I think the best play by far is Jason Day at $3.60 (+260). Sweet odds to say the least, I think he's got a real shot to take down Bisping (literally).
Ive got a play on Thiago Alves at +190, which im very happy w/. The only prayer Matt Hughes has to win any fight is on the ground... via ground n pound or sub... That is sometimes a problem for him since every round starts on the feet... Alves may start slowly, but he finishes HOT w/ the best standup at 170 lbs IMO...
Also like that Alves works w/ American Top Team and Rhadi Ferguson, a judo olympian who has maybe the best, most explosive double and single-leg takedowns in history... Ferguson was one of the top judo players in the country almost solely b/c of his double-leg takedown...
here's a clip of Ferguson... start watching at about 1:50 into it... this guy works w/ Thiago to help him defend takedowns...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=n8hjwiMBwlg
Hughes has a good chance, but there is major value in Alves at +190 in my opinion... i would steer clear of Hughes at -220 b/c this could be a major upset. A lot has been made of Thiago as a "slow starter," which he is... but thats just his style.. he usually feels out his opponent in the first round and then unleashes muay thai fury in the second/third rounds. On top of that he is just a fearless kid w/ nothing to lose... UFC record stands at 7-2 w/ six wins by KO/TKO all within two rounds... currently on a five fight win streak w/ four stoppages in a row... only losses r to Spencer Fisher & Jon Fitch...
:talk: :talk: :talk:
...I could just go on and on about him... i think hes a real force in the WW division... Not ready for a title yet, but maybe after a couple more wins.
Despite the odds, i actually pick Thiago to beat Hughes.... Not that it would matter much to Hughes b/c he already knows his next opponent will be Serra no matter what... and we all know what will happen if he faces GSP again. :nono:
Also like that Alves works w/ American Top Team and Rhadi Ferguson, a judo olympian who has maybe the best, most explosive double and single-leg takedowns in history... Ferguson was one of the top judo players in the country almost solely b/c of his double-leg takedown...
here's a clip of Ferguson... start watching at about 1:50 into it... this guy works w/ Thiago to help him defend takedowns...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=n8hjwiMBwlg
Hughes has a good chance, but there is major value in Alves at +190 in my opinion... i would steer clear of Hughes at -220 b/c this could be a major upset. A lot has been made of Thiago as a "slow starter," which he is... but thats just his style.. he usually feels out his opponent in the first round and then unleashes muay thai fury in the second/third rounds. On top of that he is just a fearless kid w/ nothing to lose... UFC record stands at 7-2 w/ six wins by KO/TKO all within two rounds... currently on a five fight win streak w/ four stoppages in a row... only losses r to Spencer Fisher & Jon Fitch...
:talk: :talk: :talk:
...I could just go on and on about him... i think hes a real force in the WW division... Not ready for a title yet, but maybe after a couple more wins.
Despite the odds, i actually pick Thiago to beat Hughes.... Not that it would matter much to Hughes b/c he already knows his next opponent will be Serra no matter what... and we all know what will happen if he faces GSP again. :nono:
Last edited:
Meh, not really a fan of Alves. I think he's a middle of the pack guy. I think Hughes dominates him fairly significantly in this fight.
Alves has shown weakness on the ground at times, but Hughes first has to get him on the ground... his takedowns look SO weak against dangerous strikers b/c he seems afraid to set up the takedowns w/ combinations.... Hughes' standup is just terrible... like embarassing terrible.
I dont see Hughes dominating any part of this fight... his only chance is by submission in my mind and i dont think he gets his way w/ the takedowns.
:00x33
Still think it's an interesting main event..
I dont see Hughes dominating any part of this fight... his only chance is by submission in my mind and i dont think he gets his way w/ the takedowns.
:00x33
Still think it's an interesting main event..
it`s an o.k. card....maybe not an elite card,but,if you stare at the match-ups for awhile(aside from becoming nauseous),you see some competitive match-ups....
i gotta say...maybe not from a "purist mma" point of view,but more of an "i enjoy sheer mayhem" state of mind,i really like the network t.v. card this saturday...
the kimbo-colossus fight...lawler-smith,villasenor-baroni and the excellent muffer fight....plus,they threw in another heavyweight fight....
i`m really looking forward to this card...
i gotta say...maybe not from a "purist mma" point of view,but more of an "i enjoy sheer mayhem" state of mind,i really like the network t.v. card this saturday...
the kimbo-colossus fight...lawler-smith,villasenor-baroni and the excellent muffer fight....plus,they threw in another heavyweight fight....
i`m really looking forward to this card...
How all of the sudden is Hughes not capable of taking someone down and beating the crap out them? Yeah he lost to GSP and was dominated but you take GSP away and Hughes has dominated everyone else.
Alves has a bright future but unless Hughes is all of the sudden totally washed up then he should win easily.
Alves has a bright future but unless Hughes is all of the sudden totally washed up then he should win easily.
Exactly layinwood -
People are hyping up Alves as the heir apparent to the division. I dont think so. I think he is VERY exciting and like his style alot (and I think the exact opposite of Hughes) BUT Hughes has made a career of beating everyone in the division for years now. Believe me, I've rooted against Hughes nearly every UFC and almost always bet against him and I nearly always lose. Im literally 3-8 betting against Hughes (wins were with BJ & both GSP victorys- losses were Newton 2x, Sherk, Trigg 2x, Charuto, 1st GSP fight and 2nd Penn fight) and incidentally 3-0 betting for him (Riggs, Royce and Lytle). Dude is THAT good.
People are hyping up Alves as the heir apparent to the division. I dont think so. I think he is VERY exciting and like his style alot (and I think the exact opposite of Hughes) BUT Hughes has made a career of beating everyone in the division for years now. Believe me, I've rooted against Hughes nearly every UFC and almost always bet against him and I nearly always lose. Im literally 3-8 betting against Hughes (wins were with BJ & both GSP victorys- losses were Newton 2x, Sherk, Trigg 2x, Charuto, 1st GSP fight and 2nd Penn fight) and incidentally 3-0 betting for him (Riggs, Royce and Lytle). Dude is THAT good.
Of course Hughes is capable of taking someone down....... but understand that people are finally coming to realize that his only prayer of winning a fight is on the ground. That gives his opponents one thing to worry about: the takedown.
You cant compare guys like Chris Lytle or Joe Riggs to a guy like Alves... and the chubby BJ Penn that Hughes beat two years ago... cmon. An in shape Penn would dominate Hughes just like the first time... Hughes against Penn the first time and GSP 2&3 go to show the guy has been dominated himself a few times... not just beaten: dominated.
I understand Alves is not on the same level as Penn/GSP, but after going on a five fight win streak (all impressive victories) what makes you think anybody can have an "easy" victory over Alves ?? That just doesnt make sense......
W/ that said I think BOTH guys are bad matchups for one another... i never said it wouldnt be a good fight... it will. Just think people r too quick to write off Alves in this one.
Last edited:
First, I wouldn't mind seeing Alves win. It would be very good for the division and I like his fighting style.
Chubby BJ? That's his freaking fault. He got his ass handed to him by Hughes and to make excuses for it is just bs.
Hughes has always been one dimensional and it hasn't mattered. Alves will struggle and struggle badly when Hughes gets him on his back. GSP negated Hughes wrestling and takedowns because his takedowns have gotten so damn good. Alves only chance is if it stays on the ground but from his take down d vs Fitch I just don't see it happening.
Chubby BJ? That's his freaking fault. He got his ass handed to him by Hughes and to make excuses for it is just bs.
Hughes has always been one dimensional and it hasn't mattered. Alves will struggle and struggle badly when Hughes gets him on his back. GSP negated Hughes wrestling and takedowns because his takedowns have gotten so damn good. Alves only chance is if it stays on the ground but from his take down d vs Fitch I just don't see it happening.
Dont pretend like i was making excuses for BJ... all i meant was that a victory like that has no merit.
And I think Alves has worked a bit more on his takedown defense since his fight w/ Fitch TWO YEARS AGO....
How is that not an excuse, you said he was chubby and that an in shape BJ would beat Hughes. So basically he wasn't in shape(excuse) so he lost. That win has as much merit as any other. Otherwise we could make the same arguement for fighters all of the time.
maybe it was an excuse... BJ basically submitted due to exhaustion and i think it cost him the fight...
...and how can u say Hughes "dominated" everyone else but GSP... would that be an excuse? Do the dominating victories GSP had over Hughes just not count?? Otherwise we could make the same argument for fighters all of the time.
and if u wanna bring BJ into it, watch the first fight he had w/ Hughes and tell me Hughes has dominated everyone else but GSP.
Last edited:
Rawli, how is the fact that I said Hughes dominated everyone else except for GSP an excuse? He did and was. I made no excuses at all, he got his ass handed to him by GSP and I gave no excuses to why other than he got beat. An excuse would be, he lost to GSP because he had a bad hand or wasn't in shape or whatever it might be. I said none of that.
I agree BJ did dominate Hughes but once they had a re match Hughes dominated him. Which matters more the one that happened years ago or the most recent one?
I agree BJ did dominate Hughes but once they had a re match Hughes dominated him. Which matters more the one that happened years ago or the most recent one?
i Just cant bet Alves after watching a much smaller Spencer Fisher beat him. I also think Alves got a little lucky with his last fight with Karo (Knee out of nowhere). Just think Hughes is to strong for him but to me its not worth taking a chance cause i could see Alves picking him apart when they are standing. Who knows how much Hughes has left and does he have any heart left? If i had to make a wager it would be Hughes.
Well I dont see how you could turn my description of BJ as chubby into an excuse, either... It would be stupid of me to make excuses for another person and I certainly didnt mean it that way... I give full credit to Hughes for that victory, but Penn was clearly out of shape and broke his rib in that fight... that victory, IMO, has no merit when talking about this fight w/ Alves.... but thats just me.
It isnt easy to compare Alves and Hughes based on their past opponents, but I DO think Alves is on a higher level than Hughes' past opponents w/ the exception of Penn/GSP (guys like Lytle, Riggs, even Royce...) IMO Alves is of a higher caliber than those guys... only fighter they've both faced is Lytle and both Hughes and Alves did a number on him...
I, personally, will be impressed if Hughes can beat Alves b/c i do think the kid is good... I think each fighter poses major threats to one another.
what would worry me about hughes is his "mental"....i heard him say on the ultimate fighter that he`s gone regardless, after around 3 more fights...
he knows he`s not champion until somebody beats gsp....
so,i wonder where his head is at?...his motivation?...
what was that old saying about "the game being 80% mental and 30% physical"(or something like that)....
where`s hughes` head these days?...
btw...i`m not a big alves fan either..
he knows he`s not champion until somebody beats gsp....
so,i wonder where his head is at?...his motivation?...
what was that old saying about "the game being 80% mental and 30% physical"(or something like that)....
where`s hughes` head these days?...
btw...i`m not a big alves fan either..
Last edited:
Thats another reason I like Alves to take this one... Hughes said on his website he gets Serra next no matter what, and so it doesnt seem he has much to fight for... If he does beat Alves and then beats Serra, that will set him up for a farewell fight w/ GSP... and i dont know if Hughes' ego can take another loss to GSP and go 1-3 against him... i doubt Hughes would want his farewell fight in the UFC to be against GSP. :nono:
Then again, his master plan could be to buck up, win against Alves & Serra... then retire.. :shrug:
Looking at Hughes' website it looks like hes been having a lot of fun, though... I checked it today and hes been talking about everything but his own training, which he used to mention quite a bit... :shrug:
im surprised so many dislike Alves... he seems like a good guy and all his fights ive seen have been pretty exciting... not so much the Parisyan fight, but against Alessio/Desouza/Lytle he was a blast to watch.
Heres a "Pitbull" highlight:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=lSeMk-i1mrs
Then again, his master plan could be to buck up, win against Alves & Serra... then retire.. :shrug:
Looking at Hughes' website it looks like hes been having a lot of fun, though... I checked it today and hes been talking about everything but his own training, which he used to mention quite a bit... :shrug:
im surprised so many dislike Alves... he seems like a good guy and all his fights ive seen have been pretty exciting... not so much the Parisyan fight, but against Alessio/Desouza/Lytle he was a blast to watch.
Heres a "Pitbull" highlight:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=lSeMk-i1mrs
Last edited:
Picks !!!
Picks !!!
Enough of me running my mouth (i really am quiet in person)... here are my plays.
As promised, im going to start a record from UFC 85 on.... could be good or bad b/c ive got a few plays riding on this event...
Here they r... drum roll please (thoughts on each of these fight are scattered throughout this thread):
Marcus Davis: 3.5 units at -115..... realize not the best odds around on Davis.
Brandon Vera: 3 units at -120.... odds opened at -120 and have now moved to -170 !! Glad i jumped on this one early.
Thiago Alves: 1.5 units at +190.... odds opened at +190 and have now gone down to +160... glad i got on this one early.
Jason Day: 1 unit at +260
GL to all of you in all your endeavors.
:11jackson
Picks !!!
Enough of me running my mouth (i really am quiet in person)... here are my plays.
As promised, im going to start a record from UFC 85 on.... could be good or bad b/c ive got a few plays riding on this event...
Here they r... drum roll please (thoughts on each of these fight are scattered throughout this thread):
Marcus Davis: 3.5 units at -115..... realize not the best odds around on Davis.
Brandon Vera: 3 units at -120.... odds opened at -120 and have now moved to -170 !! Glad i jumped on this one early.
Thiago Alves: 1.5 units at +190.... odds opened at +190 and have now gone down to +160... glad i got on this one early.
Jason Day: 1 unit at +260
GL to all of you in all your endeavors.
:11jackson
raw.......if your reading this....go to http://www.fan590.com/ and click on "listen live" Jason Day coming up live and other stuff
It is 10:20 EST, show on until 11...maybe you'll read this in time:shrug:
It is 10:20 EST, show on until 11...maybe you'll read this in time:shrug:
Last edited:
