UFC 98 "EVANS vs MACHIDA", May 23rd, Las Vegas, NV
- Thread starter kickserv
- Start date
GW, talk me off the ledge man. I'm about to load up on Machida. LOL, Evans has cost me more money than any team or person in my 21 year betting history but I love Machida here.
bro,i have machida in a mid-level parlay....and `m more comfortable with machida in a 5 round fight vs evans than a 3 round fight.....but evans throws punches with bad intentions and may be quicker early...
i wonder if evans intends to try and take machida down and use his wrestling?...that`s not what he`s been doing...most of evans` fights have been stand-up battles...and i`m sure his confidence is through the roof after pole-axing chuck...
i like machida...but not enough to lay -220...it`s way to dangerous to be considered an "open your wallet" fight for me...
could be boring,too,as both guys seem to like to counter more than lead...
wouldn`t shock me if evans won...:shrug:
Machida is fighting one of the closest thing to a professional boxer in MMA. This isn't Tito or Franklin with their average hands. If Machida knocks out Evans with his fist, when they are both fresh, then he should go after the light heavyweight boxing title with this new style of boxing.
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Kickserv banned 27 minutes for issuing a ban on something that might just be a fact.
GSP was damn good before the Serra fight, but he does seem to have more of a bone to pick in every fight since.
It is not a knock on GSP, but more of a take it to another level.
And I am revoking the Thong ban to time served.
Oh and Serra is going to do the same to Hughes that he did to GSP to keep this post on topic.
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adding more............
MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 24-20
Fighter vs. Fighter 131-201
Parlays 65-83
+36.67 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra beat #1 Prick in MMA $3.15 (+215) *2 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra beat #1 Prick in MMA $3.20 (+220) *1.5 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra wins inside distance $3.94 (+294) *1 Joe Rogan
Brandon Wolff beat Yoshiyuki Yoshida $4.50 (+350) *1 Joe Rogan
Tim Hague beat Patrick Barry $3.55 (+255) *1 Joe Rogan
David Kaplan beat George Roop $2.30 (+130) *1 Joe Rogan
Kyle Bradley beat Phillipe Nover $3.90 (+290) *1 Joe Rogan
Chris Wilson beat Brock Larson $3.50 (+250) *1 Joe Rogan
Krzysztof Soszynski beat Andre Gusmao $2.35 (+135) *2.5 Joe Rogans
Drew McFedries beat Xavier Foupa-Pokam $2.60 (+160) *1 Joe Rogan
Parlay
---------------
Lyoto Machida
Sean Sherk
odds = $1.94 (-106) *2 Joe Rogans
and Sponge.....hate odds on Machida, but threw him in a parlay. Rashad always costs me money, he most likely will again:mj07:
MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 24-20
Fighter vs. Fighter 131-201
Parlays 65-83
+36.67 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra beat #1 Prick in MMA $3.15 (+215) *2 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra beat #1 Prick in MMA $3.20 (+220) *1.5 Joe Rogans
Matt Serra wins inside distance $3.94 (+294) *1 Joe Rogan
Brandon Wolff beat Yoshiyuki Yoshida $4.50 (+350) *1 Joe Rogan
Tim Hague beat Patrick Barry $3.55 (+255) *1 Joe Rogan
David Kaplan beat George Roop $2.30 (+130) *1 Joe Rogan
Kyle Bradley beat Phillipe Nover $3.90 (+290) *1 Joe Rogan
Chris Wilson beat Brock Larson $3.50 (+250) *1 Joe Rogan
Krzysztof Soszynski beat Andre Gusmao $2.35 (+135) *2.5 Joe Rogans
Drew McFedries beat Xavier Foupa-Pokam $2.60 (+160) *1 Joe Rogan
Parlay
---------------
Lyoto Machida
Sean Sherk
odds = $1.94 (-106) *2 Joe Rogans
and Sponge.....hate odds on Machida, but threw him in a parlay. Rashad always costs me money, he most likely will again:mj07:
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- Jul 6, 2008
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- Mar 14, 2009
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My final plays on Saturdays card....
$100 on Matt Serra def Matt Hughes @+230
$100 on Chael Sonnen def Dan Miller @+155
$100 on Krzysztof Soszynski def Andre Gusmao @+125
$100 on Rashad Evans def Loyoto Machida @+175
Parlay #1 - Risk $50 to win $2,553
Serra, Sonnen, Soszynski, Evans
Parlay #2 - Risk $100 to win $169
Sherk, Nover, Yoshida, Berry
Parlay #3 - Risk $25 to win $3,472
Serra, Sonnen, Soszynski, Evans, Sherk, Nover, Yoshida, Berry
TONNNNNNNNZ of value on this card, IMO.
$100 on Matt Serra def Matt Hughes @+230
$100 on Chael Sonnen def Dan Miller @+155
$100 on Krzysztof Soszynski def Andre Gusmao @+125
$100 on Rashad Evans def Loyoto Machida @+175
Parlay #1 - Risk $50 to win $2,553
Serra, Sonnen, Soszynski, Evans
Parlay #2 - Risk $100 to win $169
Sherk, Nover, Yoshida, Berry
Parlay #3 - Risk $25 to win $3,472
Serra, Sonnen, Soszynski, Evans, Sherk, Nover, Yoshida, Berry
TONNNNNNNNZ of value on this card, IMO.
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2009 record 12-4 +27.01 units
I've decided I'm going with Machida here I'm just not sure how much. I'm think 3 units but to lose 6 would be a killer so it might be just 2. I was BIG on both Tito and Chuck and a good size play on Forrest. I thought I had learned my lesson going against Rashad but I just can't see him beating Machida.
MY BIG worry is that Rashad goes for takedowns over and over. We have no idea how good his control on the ground will be. I know he's a good wrestler but he wasn't great. And the big thing is he wrestled at 174, that's a big differnce from trying to get a guy Machidas size to the ground.
On the other side, do we really know how good Machidas chin is? I'm trying to think of a time I've seen it tagged and I can't think of one. I know it's because he's very elusize but he hasn't fought the best strikers either.
When it comes down to it, I'll probably suck it up and put 3 down on it but I'll wait. I always like to see weigh ins when I'm on the fence.
I've decided I'm going with Machida here I'm just not sure how much. I'm think 3 units but to lose 6 would be a killer so it might be just 2. I was BIG on both Tito and Chuck and a good size play on Forrest. I thought I had learned my lesson going against Rashad but I just can't see him beating Machida.
MY BIG worry is that Rashad goes for takedowns over and over. We have no idea how good his control on the ground will be. I know he's a good wrestler but he wasn't great. And the big thing is he wrestled at 174, that's a big differnce from trying to get a guy Machidas size to the ground.
On the other side, do we really know how good Machidas chin is? I'm trying to think of a time I've seen it tagged and I can't think of one. I know it's because he's very elusize but he hasn't fought the best strikers either.
When it comes down to it, I'll probably suck it up and put 3 down on it but I'll wait. I always like to see weigh ins when I'm on the fence.
- Mar 14, 2009
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Rashad is a big LHW while I'm not really sure we can say the same against Machida...I think Machida could fight at MW...but I could be mistaken?
neither are big at lhw.
while fighting in japan machida was a chubby 215.
at hw rashad was a chubby 220.
they're both leaner now, machida moreso.
layinwood, i'm not sure how suscpetible to double and single leg takedowns machida is. from what i've seen his vulnerability appears to be clinch takedowns. he was taken down by both soko and nakamura, but wrestlers haven't been successful. he quickly reversed the takedowns he suffered as well.
granted, rashad is one the better wrestlers and faster than previous opponents, but his wrestling track record in mma isn't great.
vs. tito it was probably a wash.
vs. bisping, he was effective at takedowns, but couldn't hold him down. bisping even got a takedown in the 3rd although rashad was tired at that point.
from what i've seen rashad's improvement has been with his stand up. i don't see any reason to believe that he's also made great strides with his wrestling, which is something he's been doing for many years already.
while fighting in japan machida was a chubby 215.
at hw rashad was a chubby 220.
they're both leaner now, machida moreso.
layinwood, i'm not sure how suscpetible to double and single leg takedowns machida is. from what i've seen his vulnerability appears to be clinch takedowns. he was taken down by both soko and nakamura, but wrestlers haven't been successful. he quickly reversed the takedowns he suffered as well.
granted, rashad is one the better wrestlers and faster than previous opponents, but his wrestling track record in mma isn't great.
vs. tito it was probably a wash.
vs. bisping, he was effective at takedowns, but couldn't hold him down. bisping even got a takedown in the 3rd although rashad was tired at that point.
from what i've seen rashad's improvement has been with his stand up. i don't see any reason to believe that he's also made great strides with his wrestling, which is something he's been doing for many years already.
- Mar 14, 2009
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I find it hard to believe that Rashad isn't a big LHW. The guy is built like a shorter version of Cro Cop...very bulky IMO
thank god we have a very competitive,"outcome to be decided" main event...not some pseudo-grudge mismatch.....
i don`t see any reason why serra wouldn`t try and keep it standing vs hughes....for some reason i can`t really recall hughes in a prolonged stand-up battle....how good is hughes` stand-up?...
i think serra hits harder and may just be tougher...
maybe he thinks he can sub hughes?....if i were him,i`d keep it standing and see how it goes....if things go south,then go for the sub...
granted,hughes has been fighting top drawer talent of late,but he`s proven that he`s now definitely a notch or two below that level ...
serra seems a very live dog indeed...
i don`t see any reason why serra wouldn`t try and keep it standing vs hughes....for some reason i can`t really recall hughes in a prolonged stand-up battle....how good is hughes` stand-up?...
i think serra hits harder and may just be tougher...
maybe he thinks he can sub hughes?....if i were him,i`d keep it standing and see how it goes....if things go south,then go for the sub...
granted,hughes has been fighting top drawer talent of late,but he`s proven that he`s now definitely a notch or two below that level ...
serra seems a very live dog indeed...
Rashad isn't a big LHW, when he's not in fighting shape he walks around at 220. When he's training he is 215 and cuts from there. Forrest and Tito come to mind when I think of BIG LHWs. They're both around 235 and Forrest being 240 when he's not training.
thiago alves has a good chance of beating gsp
but that depends on how much gsp has been working with his voice coach
depends how much gsp sounds like van damme on fight night
kurby
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ANYONE remember last time there was a draw in UFC?
i remember rashad-tito
tito saved me $500 by grabbing the fence and being deducted a point
:SIB
but that depends on how much gsp has been working with his voice coach
depends how much gsp sounds like van damme on fight night
kurby
---------
ANYONE remember last time there was a draw in UFC?
i remember rashad-tito
tito saved me $500 by grabbing the fence and being deducted a point
:SIB
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