What's your prediction?

[The Joker]

I hope he's right but I think he's presenting this as a stronger case than it really is. Facts 2-5 I don't think there's much to disagree about, but the crux of everything is in Fact 1. He's using the Stanford study to come up with the .1-.2% fatality rate. Interestingly - he closes his argument by saying "Let's stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models." But that fatality rate itself is not purely empirical evidence - it also has some significant projections.

Reading through that study - they recruited 3300 participants for antibody testing using Facebook ads, and got 50 positives (1.5%). They then weighted (i.e. projected) the sample "to match Santa Clara County by zip, race, and sex" and came up with a prevalence rate of 2.81%. They then further "adjusted for population and test performance characteristics" to come up with a prevalence range of 2.49-4.16%. They then applied (another projection) that rate to the total population of Santa Clara county (1.9M) to get an estimate that 48,000 to 81,000 had been infected. They then take the official death count from Santa Clara County (50 at the time of the report) and project that the total death count through April 22nd would be 100 (for what it's worth - the official death total there is 95 as of today, so that's pretty close). 100 deaths out of 48,000 is .2% and out of 81,000 is .12%.

All of that may be 100% correct. It could also be very very wrong. If recruiting participants through Facebook ads disproportionately attracted those with covid symptoms who wanted to be tested (which seems at least plausible) then that would skew the prevalence rate - possibly by a lot. And since everything else is based off of that, that potentially completely changes the conclusion. They are also only using the official death count to determine the overall mortality rate. Nothing inherently wrong with that but in concluding that the actual prevalence is "50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases" it seems odd to then assume that the confirmed death numbers aren't at least partially under-reported as well.

Hopeful that numerous other similar studies are being conducted right now and if their results will agree. I would definitely agree that if the fatality rate is in fact .1-.2%, then yes the world has over-reacted. Although, if 2/3 of the population of the US gets infected (a good estimate of what we'd need for herd immunity) we'd still be looking at 200k-400k deaths from that.

Interesting approach.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Uhm,,I guess you are right cause I have no idea what I just read,,:shrug: So in that case maybe Dr Scott for Mayor ?

Yeah . . . apologies for being long-winded. I tend to do that. I was trying to summarize the study and make sure I understood where the numbers were coming from before bringing up the points I had questions about. But there's a lot of jargon and math in there that does make it . . . less than accessible.

Perhaps I should have just said - he may be right (and I hope he is) but I'd like to see a couple more studies that agree with the Stanford conclusion before I'm ready to climb on board.

 

[LA Burns]

https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[LA Burns]

west coast, miami, ny


seems like all of the studies are rendering similar results

doesn?t that mean the results are foolproof but think we?re hearing similar messages here

 

[jas4bama]

Yeah . . . apologies for being long-winded. I tend to do that. I was trying to summarize the study and make sure I understood where the numbers were coming from before bringing up the points I had questions about. But there's a lot of jargon and math in there that does make it . . . less than accessible.

Perhaps I should have just said - he may be right (and I hope he is) but I'd like to see a couple more studies that agree with the Stanford conclusion before I'm ready to climb on board.

Hahahaha,,Yes sir!,,Now I got what you were saying,,,Its crazy,,Everybody has an opinoin and a case study and who knows what will happen,,I know here in Alabama we have had over a million people file for unemployment which means they have lost their job,,while 200 people have died.

 

[Old School]

So most think no sports before June?... Hmmmm... I might take some action on that (lines from 5 Dimes a few hours ago)....

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

:0corn

 

[Dr Feelgood]

I had plans for Vegas some time in March. That's dead.

I still have plans for Vegas in June but that's unlikely.

I'd like to do some traveling but I'm not going to get on a plane.

I just flew to Cali and back, nothing to worry about....10 people board at a time, all middle seats open (2 people per row), and all wear masks....get or ass out here

 

[hammer1]

I had plans for Vegas some time in March. That's dead.

I still have plans for Vegas in June but that's unlikely.

I'd like to do some traveling but I'm not going to get on a plane.

Amtrack Get your own room. !! !!!!

 

[MadJack]

I just flew to Cali and back, nothing to worry about....10 people board at a time, all middle seats open (2 people per row), and all wear masks....get or ass out here

I'd love to and am hoping for NFL Week 1.

 

[freelancc]

I'd love to and am hoping for NFL Week 1.

and even THAT may be pushed back....:facepalm:

 

[freelancc]

if you stay at the "D" Casino in Las Vegas and tell the floor manager that you watch Trooper Videos they will give you a 25$ match play on the slot machines...:mj07:

 

[hammer1]

if you stay at the "D" Casino in Las Vegas and tell the floor manager that you watch Trooper Videos they will give you a 25$ match play on the slot machines...:mj07:

Cant watch him any. more. all he does is eat gaRBAGE. JUNK FOODt

 

[The Joker]

and even THAT may be pushed back....:facepalm:

Where do you read that? NFL website and ESPN say it is still scheduled for Sept. 10th. Where did you read it may be pushed back?

 

[freelancc]

Where do you read that? NFL website and ESPN say it is still scheduled for Sept. 10th. Where did you read it may be pushed back?

did not read it...an NFL insider (talking on an ESPN segment) mentioned that he has heard from a few NFL owners that they have serious reservations about the COVID-19 restrictions and how it 'may' affect the start of the NFL season:0corn

 

[Old School]

how many teams located in States w/rising # of COVID19 cases:0corn

 

[freelancc]

Cant watch him any. more. all he does is eat gaRBAGE. JUNK FOODt

yep...he and mrs. trooper sure do love to eat...:0074

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Interesting to read through some of the older posts. Not a good look for some.

 

[LA Burns]

Interesting to read through some of the older posts. Not a good look for some.

because of the rise in case numbers?

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

getting this virus is like getting a cold

most ppl who get it will never know they had it

is anyone worried for the health of donovan mitchell?

common sense is the most important tool at times like these

went to dinner last night - golf then margaritas today

have 3 and 6 year old kids, hardest thing will be dealing with real life while they are out of school

all viruses are more dangerous for ppl with weak immune systems

the world is not ending

there have been 22,000 deaths ytd from the flu in the us and 59 from the coronavirus

177 people died in the us from gun related violence on January 1st, 2020

many families in the us have had people die for a million different reasons - did we cancel all sports and close the schools?

why didn?t we take the same precautions during the height of flu season? what?s the difference outside of the fact that the flu is much deadlier?

simply put, people die

not trying to be insensitive just trying to put things in perspective for people who are overly worried about this shit

the usual suspects will just try to pick a fight like they always do but hopefully some will take a look at those numbers and realize that what we are dealing with is just another virus - a dangerous one yes but it has a very long ways to go to be even close to as dangerous as the flu

the thread asked for a prediction and mine is that the collateral damage caused by the hype of this thing will greatly outweigh the negative health effects of the virus itself

like i said earlier i may be wrong but i hope i?m not as the best case scenario is that the virus runs its course and we can all get back to a normal life

@LA Burns: This is what I'm referring to.

It's like getting a cold.
You discounted it because the flu kills 22k a year and there was only 59 from COVID-19. 132k deaths from COVID-19 now. Same with the comment on gun deaths.
Why didn't we take the same precautions for the flu? (now we know)
Not worth taking serious because it isn't as dangerous as the flu.

Lots of bad takes.

 

[LA Burns]

i stand by everything i said