What's your prediction?

Betone

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Great read for sure..... I have been in denial of this since the start and now have changed my view. This has the potential to be a disaster. I played golf and fished thinking maybe this could be the last time if I get this and were to die. Silly, I know....yet, that's the kind of doubt that pops in my head when I think of how this could go. I had a friend text me about a concert March 28th this morning???? WTF? Really?
 

Betone

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As for the prediction .....My guess is that this will last about 6-8 more weeks before the numbers go down. Thinking June before sports are resumed and life gets back to normal. And that's just an optimistic guess...
 

redsfann

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My kids still have school as of Sunday afternoon? but i got two emails today about canceling a vocal solo and a planet presentation that they were to do this week.
Something tells me before 8 am tomorrow I get an email saying school is closed for an indefinite period.
As far as when sports return?

Haven?t a clue.
And what happens if they start back up June 1 because things have calmed down? but then it suddenly erupts again?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

REFLOG

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How did the "Best and Brightest" arrive at the number 250 for being the tipping point for Coronavirus transmission risk? What if your small diner only seats 25 people? Dining room use is illegal. But what if the Olive Garden take out order line exceeds 25? Perfectly legal. When the line outside Costco exceeds 250 people waiting to buy toilet paper, who gets arrested? The store manager? The last people in line?
 

Snafu

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How did the "Best and Brightest" arrive at the number 250 for being the tipping point for Coronavirus transmission risk?

Official talking heads, in Austria they decided it's 5 and in Finland 500 :0008

I'd like get paid being that smart and have same responsibility if numbers i take out of my ass weren't after all even close to accurate. And obviously receive promotion if they were.
 

shawn555

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all that being said, i fully admit that i am not omniscient and i could end up being wrong - but until there is data that suggests such i wonder why this mass hysteria exists

You admit that you could be wrong, but still go ahead and ignore guidance and go out in public.

This is the reason shit is going to be worse and we will be locked down thru May at this point.

You know more then doctors and experts and are just going to do whatever you want.

Hope your children do not end up with it because of your carelessness.
 

LA Burns

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clearly this is a dangerous virus, not sure any sane person would argue differently - i truly feel for those who have been affected, as well their families and loved ones

but clearly there are repercussions being felt outside of the direct health effects - in NOLA, there are hundreds of thousands in the service industry (and other sectors) without jobs, and many businesses are on the verge of shuttering - my wife works for a national company and she was one of the lucky ones who was able to take a 20% salary cut, as most have been furloughed without pay - those types of examples go on and on across the nation and the world

i know dr's and healthcare workers on the front lines are fighting their dicks off and the scenes that they are experiencing are not pretty - my brother in law is a neurosurgeon at one of the area's biggest hospitals and one of my friend's in my inner circle is a high ranking dr in the emergency department at another - the latter was one of my dinner companions last Friday night as we went out to help support one of our friends who is chef/owner at a local semi-casual fine dining establishment (Restaurant Patois, if you're ever in New Orleans look it up - ask Wineguy about it he visited a few years ago when he was in town) - when I golfed on Saturday the same dr filled a spot in my foursome - getting out was important to me to support those at these places I often frequent and to take a deep breath as I had just found out that my 3 and 6 year old kids were going to be off of school for the foreseeable future and the environment at my house was about to change dramatically - was that selfish of me? maybe so, but how about the people who bought up all of the relevant supplies and locked themselves in their bunkers without concern for others who might not have been able to access said supplies? - I'll leave the judgement to others as everybody's situations are different and as humans we tend to only see/judge things through our own personal lenses (I admit I am just as guilty of this as the next guy from time to time)



when i posted last week i was in a moment of finally having had enough of the hype machine attached to CV - again, clearly the situation was a serious one, but a situation can be serious and overblown at the same time - and CV is serious enough to not have to deal with unnecessary hysteria on top of the virus as that's when things start to get out of hand



was a few drinks deep as I posted so my apologies if I came off in a confrontational manner as that is certainly not healthy in times like this - I had no intentions of picking fights but I was ready for society in general to start trying to put this thing in its proper perspective instead of running around with its collective heads cut off


I hope we start to see some leveling off soon - the number of cases will obviously start to rise as testing ramps up but the number of critical cases and deaths seem to me to be far more important indicators of where we stand, as many infected are asymptomatic and in many other positive cases people suffer from mild symptoms only, so hopefully those severe cases decrease while overall case numbers rise - this thing was obviously floating around NOLA during Mardi Gras (which lasts about 3 weeks ending on Fat Tuesday, which this year was 2/25) as that is one of the only logical explanations for the clustering in this area - my assertion is that many many thousands of people here have already been infected and simply did not know it, while some were sick and tested negative for flu but had no reason to believe at the time that CV was to blame


again, terrible virus and I pray for the recovery of those who are in serious/critical condition as the effects in these cases sound truly awful - the strain on local healthcare workers and systems is also obviously immense - but the doomsday scenarios of millions dying, etc were likely never really in play, but still the collateral damage has hit home in an extreme way both on a local level and in my own household


finally, I hate how all of this is being politicized, and for the record I am completely apolitical - i fucking hate politics and have absolutely no dog in that particular fight (a fight that is dividing our nation now more than ever) - so when I read things about this subject I take everything with a grain of salt and try to consider the source and the potential reasoning behind the stories being written and published - the following seems to be very comprehensive, logical and well thought out, but it was written by a guy who is apparently involved with the republican party in Silicon Valley so take it for what it's worth if you care to read:


https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894



continued kudos for those who are working to fight this thing on the front lines, and i hope that there aren't many here who have been affected at a high level - i am in the process of trying to get a new business off the ground so this has definitely been detrimental in that regard, and my wife's 20% pay cut will really hurt our family, but hopefully these are temporary changes and there are many who are in much worse shape, so trying to keep all of that in mind - hope everyone remains vigilant but can find a way to stay calm in the process, and more importantly hope everyone finds it in themselves to treat each other with kindness and respect throughout the rest of this ordeal



best wishes -


LA Burns
 

LA Burns

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thanks Bill, hope you and your family are holding up well


got this text from a friend about the article i posted above so i guess it is no longer available


?Twitter sucks- that article I posted here yesterday by the medium got yanked after 3 million views for unreliable sources(even though it had high level quality references) ?



like i said, think everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt right now anyway so.......


seems like cv deaths in the us declined ever so slightly for the 2nd day in a row, hoping that?s a pattern that continues and is not just an anomaly



peace - burns
 

shawn555

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thanks Bill, hope you and your family are holding up well


got this text from a friend about the article i posted above so i guess it is no longer available


?Twitter sucks- that article I posted here yesterday by the medium got yanked after 3 million views for unreliable sources(even though it had high level quality references) ?



like i said, think everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt right now anyway so.......


seems like cv deaths in the us declined ever so slightly for the 2nd day in a row, hoping that?s a pattern that continues and is not just an anomaly



peace - burns

The article was junk. It was written by a digital campaign staffer not anyone with any real knowledge of disease.
 

MadJack

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thanks Bill, hope you and your family are holding up well


got this text from a friend about the article i posted above so i guess it is no longer available


?Twitter sucks- that article I posted here yesterday by the medium got yanked after 3 million views for unreliable sources(even though it had high level quality references) ?



like i said, think everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt right now anyway so.......


seems like cv deaths in the us declined ever so slightly for the 2nd day in a row, hoping that?s a pattern that continues and is not just an anomaly



peace - burns

I haven't seen anything indicating that. Maybe worldometers is the wrong source that I am using.
 

LA Burns

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The article was junk. It was written by a digital campaign staffer not anyone with any real knowledge of disease.


wasn?t proclaiming it to be absolute truth and tried to make it a point to say don?t believe everything you read no matter where it comes from - tons of contradictory information out there regardless of source


every morning i wake up and look at the updated stats and beyond that watching almost no tv coverage or anything like that - depend on first hand accounts and number/data to form opinions as it is hard to mine through the multitude of slanted articles to find the minuscule amount of factual data contained therein



shawn, what?s the situation where you are? do you have anything to share to help us understand this situation through your viewpoint?
 

LA Burns

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I haven't seen anything indicating that. Maybe worldometers is the wrong source that I am using.

happy belated birthday Jack


i am using the same site - click on usa on the page that shows the updated worldwide data, then scroll down to graph showing daily new deaths


if the data is reliable the number reads 57,49,46 the past 3 days


like i said could be an anomaly who really knows?
 

shawn555

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wasn?t proclaiming it to be absolute truth and tried to make it a point to say don?t believe everything you read no matter where it comes from - tons of contradictory information out there regardless of source


every morning i wake up and look at the updated stats and beyond that watching almost no tv coverage or anything like that - depend on first hand accounts and number/data to form opinions as it is hard to mine through the multitude of slanted articles to find the minuscule amount of factual data contained therein



shawn, what?s the situation where you are? do you have anything to share to help us understand this situation through your viewpoint?

I am pretty far from big cities but have several cases in my county and surrounding.

I got two elderly parents that live in florida and my dad is high risk due to cancer and it drives me insane to still see people out in large groups down there and in other places.

I have two young kids with asthma and other issues so have been pretty much on lock down for a week and a half.

I know a few people with it already most are older.

I have zero knowledge about this virus compared to experts so I just choose to listen to the social distancing shit because I realize this is the only way we can try to keep this under control, but realize people have been told up to a week ago that this was just going to be the flu so its hard to get peoples opinions on this changed.

At this point I think its better to overreact and look back and say we really overreacted then look back and say we should have done more.

There is an incredible amount of disinformation out there and just because an article takes a different view on this does not make it valid, especially coming from someone with no knowledge of disease and how it will may react.
 

LA Burns

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We also have people dying who are still waiting on the test results, and people who have died who never got tested.


good point, sure that will skew numbers a bit for now, and likely will cause the number of deaths to temporarily rise when higher number of test results start to flow in
 

LA Burns

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I am pretty far from big cities but have several cases in my county and surrounding.

I got two elderly parents that live in florida and my dad is high risk due to cancer and it drives me insane to still see people out in large groups down there and in other places.

I have two young kids with asthma and other issues so have been pretty much on lock down for a week and a half.

I know a few people with it already most are older.

I have zero knowledge about this virus compared to experts so I just choose to listen to the social distancing shit because I realize this is the only way we can try to keep this under control, but realize people have been told up to a week ago that this was just going to be the flu so its hard to get peoples opinions on this changed.

At this point I think its better to overreact and look back and say we really overreacted then look back and say we should have done more.

There is an incredible amount of disinformation out there and just because an article takes a different view on this does not make it valid, especially coming from someone with no knowledge of disease and how it will may react.



again, many good points


my 73 year old dad has diabetes and still came to see his grandkids last week - i am 46 and asthmatic as well and that is a concern of mine too


my family has basically stayed in with the exception of exercising and the very occasional foray to play golf, go to the grocery or pick up takeout food


guess my point all along has been how many will suffer as a result of disease and how many will suffer from outside effects? what if the number from the latter is exponentially higher than the former? just feel like there are 2 sides to the coin and simply saying everyone should just stay inside for the next few months could serve to be very harmful as well in many different ways
 
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