World Matchplay

[bettingmad]

Although this is probably a very dodgy betting event.... if there are any early bird types after the worm... www.paddypower.com have priced up at 1/4 lst 4.
As the Spanish maestro did us a favour last week (this week pending)... some of the 40/1 available had to be taken as an interest bet.

 

[Ian]

Olympic also has prices up - bizarre one is Taniguchi - 80/1 to win 60/1 to finish top 4 (remember he finished 3rd last year)
At Paddy Power I also think the 100/1 Sabatini is a bit large

 

[steved]

Agree about how dodgy event is, 18 hole matchplay a lottery...Seen reference to course favouring wayward driving, but requiring accurate iron play..so looking at good GIR stats..
like the look of Leonard..one of only eight players who have won both their first round World matches at La Costa..Olly is another, so probably good pick as well...
Also looking at K Perry, but no evidence of matchplay...do you need it?

 

[steved]

Me again, watch out Olly due to play Leonard in first round, unless someone drops out before 5pm US time today..one of us will have done our money come Thursday !

 

[bettingmad]

What must be an error with the each way terms from the Stan James web site...
"Each Way 1/4 1-2-3-4 or 1/5 1-2-3-4-5
Others On Request."

That 5th place decision could be a tester

 

[boris]

Any site have a formatted draw so we know who plays who in the following days?

 

[steved]

try here
http://www.golfweek.com/match/public_bracket.asp
everyone else has tee times, or who top 32 are playing in order...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

SIA has unique little twist up this week for this event.A place only top 2 @1/2 odds.Their odds suck however especially matches where pickems are 1.83. Not sure but believe that equates into 34cent lines.

 

[bettingmad]

Had to take a little of the 20/1 Big Ern at Heathorns.

I had to forgive his 1st & 2nd round matchplay exits on this course (10th 98 Mercedes and 14th 97 Mercedes) as last years performance was better (admittedly in a weaker field). He has plenty of winning matchplay experience at Wentworth and form figures stretching back as far as the British Open that look impressive. In my database this includes 16 outings with only one outside the top 16, 11 tops 10's of which two were wins, three 2nds and three 3rds. I exclude his winning team event.

 

[bettingmad]

For place only regulars, www.stanjames.com have some prices on players to win their quarter... (each way bets are also available on this at 1/2 1-2)

 

[nakor]

My first actual pick(s) here. Warning: for some reason, my posted picks are generally must-fades.

Howell 40/1 - This guy appears to have all the talent in the world. It looks like a matter of time before he jumps up into the elite. I'm trying to cash a ticket or two before he gets there. Also bet him early for the Masters - 2 units @50-1 to win, 4 units @12.5 to place top 4. He is from Augusta and I'm hoping that the familiar surroundings will help him then.

First round matchups:

Howell -140 over Cink
Sabbatini +105 over Toms

Considering DiMarco -200 over Stricker, but hate to lay that much wood so will probably pass.

(All lines from SIA - I know they suck, but I'm too lazy to decipher the arcane deposit regulations at other books.)

Nakor

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will not have any official plays in this event but will have to put a little cheese in the pot since I'll be watching it.Thought I'd risk 2 units on 1st round trying to exploit a little on the unexpected that always happens here and with minimal risk so decided to parlay 5 players with one player.Since all 5 eggs will ride in one basket I looked for the weakest sister to oppose and settle on Lehman over Sutton.Sutton having fallen in dreadful form missing 4 straight cuts and failing to bust par collectively in those 4.Will use both 5dimes and Wsex where Lehman is -160 at both.
Now the five I think may surprise.

P Price +150 over Love.
Which Love will show up?
Sutherland +155 over Duval
Would almost take these odds on Duval completing round
Mayfair +170 over Goosen
Mayfair finished 2nd on this course in 99 Mercedes Champ
Janzen +170 over Sergio
The tougher it gets the better Janzen plays
Katayma +130 over Westwood
Not sold on Westwood's overnight form

Risking 2/5 unit on each man parlayed with Lehman for possible return of 6.26 units "IF" Lehman covers will need any 2 of the 5 for profit.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Lehman does his job or should say Sutton does his but on a day of dogs covering could manage to get only one of five selected home,Estes/Duval netting about a 1/3 unit loss on day.

 

[rio]

Was going to include Toms but having drawn Sabbatini the 33's is too short.

I like Dimarco and Howell at 40's each and will include two from this side of the pond. P Price at 150's ( Hills ) has shown up well this year and the talented swede Niclas Fasth 125/1 ( VC ) who I am sure is going to be a force in the Ryder Cup.


Rio.

 

[lostinamerica]

Matchups
YTD: 8-6-1 (+0.80*)
LW: 4-3-0 (-0.05*)
Outrights
YTD: 0-5 (-2.00*)

Dodgy task of capping a match play event featuring the 64 top players in the world. Of course the numbers I've been tracking for a month lack much relevance, although the themes are all still there. Good judgment at my end this week means getting things done at work (so far), and leave the heavy digging for those so inclined. The choices I like and post this week will be fewer than are justified by the ocassion, with an emphasis on subjective factors which are a comfortable part of my handicapping, anyway.


Outrights @ 0.40*:

Olazabal(30-1)
No extended comments are needed on the attributes of Olazabal's game that make him attractive in match play. For the near term, at least, on the road to Augusta, Olazabal's current stint in the States has been building for this championship, I'd say, and he is as on form as anyone to seize it. Olazabal would be my selection regardless of the draw, which can get blown upside down in a single day. Advancing over Leonard (and if form holds, Goosen) holds the possibility of contributing momentum. Olazabal would be my choice if he was a reasonably priced favorite, but I find him far down the list, bringing value to boot. Dodgy call any way you slice it.

Matchups:

Olazabal(-120) over Leonard
Leonard has what it takes to pull the surprise, but it seems more than merely possible that he will have his hands full in this one.

Faxon(+105) over Perry
Faxon is on his game, and if I had to pick someone to make a putt under any circumstances on a Monday through about a Friday, this guy would surely be hovering near my top ten.


I like the Howell suggestions on catching him before he gets there, and finishing high at Augusta; I like Lehman to be tough out of the box; and I'm intrigued by the 125-1 on Niclas Fasth. Keep 'em coming.

GL

 

[Cartman88]

Playing the following 1st round matchups:

Lehman -155 vs Sutton 2 units (DTB this one stood out to me also)
Parnevik -108 vs Azinger
Mayfair +165 vs Goosen
Mediate +115 vs Daly
Sutherland +150 vs Duval
Furyk -150 vs Andrade
Flesch +125 vs Harrington

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

http://www.worldgolfchampionships.com/r470/brackets.html

I deem the lower right hand bracket to be weakest with some nice odds on several to finish top 4. Any of you match play experts have a couple long ones you favor in that bracket.

 

[ormond80]

4-1-1 Year To Date. Winner in L.A. w/ Singh over Furyk. We'll break tradition today and go w/ 4 plays in the World Match Play:

Howell -150 over Cink
McCarron -140 over Colin
Faxon -100 over K. Perry
Sabbatini +115 over Toms

Happy Gaming.

 

[Ice Picks]

Scoreboard

Scoreboard

www.thegolfchannel.com

Click on the name of the tournament, and then scoreboard. It updates every few minutes...IP

 

[AntGrad]

What a w*****!

Duval 2 up with 2 to play manages to lose at the 20th hole, thereby ruining a 5-timer I had of Lehman, Olazabal, Goosen, Estes & Duval. Unbelievable.

Luckily I also covered the 5 4-timers involved so still made a small profit.

 

[Cartman88]

Encouraging start with 1st round plays going 5-2 (+3.9 units). Here is what I am going with in the 2nd round:

Love -130 vs Azinger
Weir -120 vs McCarron
Flesch -110 vs Triplett
Furyk -125 vs Izawa
Sutherland -120 vs McGinley