World Matchplay

[lostinamerica]

In every remaining match, the available odds on the underdog are significantly more attractive than my projected lines, which was not at all the case for the second round matchups. Last night, I expected I would back Faxon and Furyk (seems a tough spot for Sutherland's new claw putting technique against an exceptional match play practitioner). However, the format, the history of this event, and most importantly, what I have seen and heard this week, all tell me there are some live dogs out there, and given the odds being offered, I am extremely tempted to try and catch more than I miss. In particular, Price(+115) has caught some of his old form in a format and on a course that play to his strengths; it is not at all surprising that Fasth(+125) continues to be overlooked, while Azinger goes from underdog to big favorite after two draining matches; and McCarron(+135) relishes a go at the highest remaining seed and gaining a measure of redemption for last week, although Garcia is fueled by the payoff in this event toward his stated goal of grabbing both money titles. In the end, I've decided to stick with my philosophy from the start of the week of steering clear of a dodgy task.


Third Round Matches:

Faxon(-145) over Cook
Faxon seems poised to go deeper. Does Cook have enough to forge a divergent story line? I can't get much more subjective than that.

GL

 

[sports student]

been fortunate so far playing almost all dogs this week. Hit 3 team dog parlay yesterday and am having some beginners luck. Switching gears a little today, taking mostly favorites. Taking Faxon over Cook. In 6 events this year Cook has shot worse in the the 3rd round than either of the first 2 rounds in 5 of the 6. In the other he tied his first round score which was worse than the 2nd round.

Garcia over McCarron. McCarron has choked at th end of the last 3 rounds he has played which has to catch up to him, plus Garcia usually improves as the week goes along. Only thing I hate about this is I have to root for Garcia while watching him twitch.

Lehman over Gogel. Hoping the momentum of his big comeback yesterday carries over. Again I am a new at playing golf and just trying to learn as I go. If anybody has any suggestions/corrections for me feel free. Good luck everyone.

 

[AntGrad]

I'm enjoying this tourney. Rather than miserably watching Michelson screw up over 4 days or something I'm managing to treat each day as a seperate tournament and coming out pretty well.

A pretty good 6 out of 8 today with only Garcia (losing to McCarron) and Calcavecchia (losing to Olly) letting me down.

I went pretty big on Lehman as a single and matched up all 8 selections in doubles, trebles etc (I think it was called a Goliath - 247 seperate bets) and managed to come out with a decent profit.

I'd love to post my picks beforehand in case anyone wants to tag along with my lucky streak, but I'd hate to breal the spell. To be honest I'm struggling with tomorrow. If I post my leans at least there can't be too many losers...

Estes to beat Azinger
McCarron over Lehman
Faxon over Olazabal
Toms to beat Surtherland

Good luck all

 

[Cartman88]

3rd round plays went 1-3 (-2.6 units)
Tournament to date 9-7 (+1.8 units)

Only 1 play in the Quarter Finals:

Faxon +105 vs Olazabal for 2 units

 

[bettingmad]

Antgrad,
Goliaths are shocking bets.... 247 stakes but as soon as you have one loser it is 127 stakes down the drain.... if one of those 2 losers was one you weren't sure about you could have missed it out, doubled your unit stake and won twice as much!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will hedge the Sutherland final 4 @ 25/1 with a match play on Toms vs Sutherland for final wager in tourny.

 

[lostinamerica]

Still a 72 hole grind on the way to earning this championship. Grand golf. Lehman vs. Olazabal has the most appeal to me. Or Lehman and Azinger.

Without a rich slate of matchups from which to cherry pick, the batting average sharply climbs on the dreaded, "What could I have been thinking?" refrain. I'll try this one.

Fourth Round Matchups:

Lehman(+110) over McCarron
McCarron looks a natural at match play, but comes off a huge match yesterday, maybe like when he positions himself in the lead for Sunday. Lehman looked pleased to report after his round that he "was around the hole a lot." Will Lehman continue to make the most of his moment on the West Coast swing? I think he may.

GL

 

[Ice Picks]

Saturday

Saturday

Upper:
1. Estes [17] vs Zinger25]
2. McCarron[45] vs. Lehman[28]

Lower:
3. Faxon[47] vs. Ollie[26]
4. Sutherland[62] vs. Toms[6]

Will try to re-coup after yesteday's disappointing results...

McCarron may have had his day Friday, as he used a lot up in defeating Sergio Garcia yesterday. Is his tank on empty now?? Lehman is a grizzled veteran with a lot to prove after being overlooked for the Ryder cup. McCarron beat Monty [20] 2-1, Weir [13] 2-1, and Garcia [4] 1-up. Lehman beat Sutton [37] 2-1, Els [5] 1-up, and Goegel [53] 4-3...

1. Lehman over McCarron 3-2

David Toms is the lowest remaining seed, though in this tounament so far the seedings have not mattered too much. Sutherland beat Duval [3] 1 up, McGinley [30] 2-1, and Furyk [14] 4-3. Toms has won all his matches 1-up, vs. Sabbatini [59], Mediate [27], and Flesch [54]. Is there a pattern here? You bet there is...

2. Sutherland over Toms 2-1

The 2 biggest names remaining play in what should be a great match. Faxon may be the more consistent player and has a great putting and short game...but Ollie is a great scrambler, and arguably the better match player...one question in my mind is this is now the 4th day of play - that is a lot of walking - and Olazabal has had the past problem with his feet...has this totally resolved or will the extended play affect him at some point. Ollie beat Leonard [26] 1-up, Goosen [7] 1-up, and Calc [23] 2-up. FAXON beat Perry [18] 7-6, Scott [50] 3-2, and Cook [63] 4-2, so he has yet to reach 17...I hope he has gone out and practiced them...

3. Faxon over Olazabal 3-2

Bob Estes is playing like a machine. Fairways and Greens. Azinger is also playing well, and making some crucial putts. Both players have won all their matches by a score of 1-up...eek: Estes beat Appleby [48], Verplank [16], and Price[32]. Zinger beat Parnevik [59], Love [8], and Fasth [41]. Is there any doubt that this one will be won 1-up??? I am now flipping a coin - Heads - it's

4. Zinger over Estes [1-up]

*****

Yesterdays Separate Proposition at Olympic: [unposted]

Number of grips and regrips by Sergio Garcia Over/Under 2030

OVER [won] Actual total....3017 - this guy drives me nuts...HIT THE DAMN BALLLLLLLL


Good luck...IP

 

[Ice Picks]

ANTGRAD

ANTGRAD

You mentioned a "Goliath" in your previous post. Is this like a "wheel" bet in football? Where is it offered?

Sounds like we are on opposites in 3 of 4 matches today...Oh well...it certainly seems to have turned into a crap shoot...

IP

 

[bettingmad]

Ice Picks,

Don't get interested in Goliaths... it's a hugely profitable bet for bookmakers. If they could they would accept nothing else.

8 Selections permed in the following way:
Any 2 = 28, any 3 = 56, any 4 = 70, any 5 = 56, any 6 = 28, any 7 = 8 and one bet all 8 = 247 stakes.

You need 3 winners out of 8 at 4/1 just to return 250... cut the selections down and increase the unit stake instead.

 

[Ice Picks]

Bettingmad

Bettingmad

Thanks for the response - I take it that a Goliath is similar to a parlay then?? You pick at least two to win for increased odds??

 

[Stanley]

Bet365USA.com give a useful glossary of bets that have been keeping bookies rich in the UK ...

http://www.bet365usa.com/home/betglossary.htm

It is noticeable that "wheel" bets have not been part of the UK scene. Maybe someone should drop them an email? I see DTB has hit two this week with Lehman and Olazabal

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Think you'll have your site back running next week Stan? Been time consuming having to stop 3 and 4 diferent places when use to one stop @ tour-tips.Golfonline has 404 error poping up on every click and it was a killer.
Was fortunate to hit both ends of wheels but was a break even venture as I wheeled em with bout every dog that didn't cover.Had em where I wanted em but could do no damage.
Saw where Monty said he's not returning to US after Bay Hill committment. Sad to see that. While I think he brings on a lot of it himself and seems to play poorly here which only hightens his nerves I deem him 90% correct on his assertion of fans here save Augusta's. However Oly and Fasth seemed to have cordial fan backings.The most interesting was Sergio. Probably the 1st time in his carrer more fans were rooting for opponent ( home state boy McCarron).
I believe that facter worked on him especially with his sweetie following along.

 

[bettingmad]

The bet365 glossary is very good but if anyone wants a breakdown of the individual doubles, trebles, etc. within a bet type, e.g. Yankee, try my Bet Types page.
Never heard of a 'wheel' but gather from DTB's bets it's a banker
type bet. In the UK that sort of bet is easier written down on a slip than described over the phone - would be a useful inclusion if possible.

 

[Ice Picks]

Wheel bet...

Wheel bet...

Bettingmad....

A "wheel" type play is something I learned from Nolan Dalla in his column. I used it about 5 times this football season to some pretty good success. Won 4 weeks and lost 1.

The premise as Nolan explained it, was to find a good team on a "teaser" bet - you move the line 6 &1/2 points in your favor. You then use that bet as the "hub" of the wheel, and make bets on ALL other sides. If there are 15 games, you will have 29 plays, using the "A" team as 1/2 of each teaser.

Assuming your main bet wins you are guaranteed to win at least 1 bet per game. If a particular game stays within the extra 13 points you get with a teaser [6.5 + 6.5], you will win both sides of that game. Typically at least 3 or 4 games are close, and you end up winning 19 + losing 10, for example, or 20-9. It is NOT a bet for the faint of heart, for if you lose the main bet, you go 0-29.

You could play a variation of this in the golf matches, assuming you could pick 1 player who was a "lock" [if there is such a thing].

For instance, I liked Brad Faxon in his first round match. I could have made 62 parlay bets, "wheeling" Faxon with every other player in 2 player parlays. You could not parlay Faxon with his own opponent.

If Faxon wins, this would guarantee you winning 31 of your 62 bets, as all matches must be won or lost. 50% is not necessarily good in single bets as you lose the juice.

But you would make good money in this scenario, and the more of the high seeds with better odds which won ovet the low seeds, the more $$$ you would win. Typically you would win at least 5:1 on an individual parlay...I have't run the figures, but it could be quite a payday...This would have worked well this tournament, as the low seeds were being decimated...

Once again, this is not a play for the faint of heart, but worth a shot - especially if you have a clue on a particular match - i.e. inside info...

I am not sure if this would work in a typical golf tournament format....

IP:shrug:

 

[Ice Picks]

Saturday Morning recap...and Semis

Saturday Morning recap...and Semis

1. Lehman falls apart and blows 2 up lead to McCarron [L 4-3]
2. Sutherland over Toms [W 3-2] I had a hunch and played 3 units on this match...
3. Faxon over Ollie [W 20 holes]
4. Zinger over Estes [W 2-1]


Day: 3-1


Semi Finals:

1. Sutherland over Azinger

2. McCarron over Faxon

No particular rational for these picks, except McCarron is rock solid, and Sutherland has knocked off 2 top 10 seeds already. Both of the players are younger than their rivals, and there has been a lot of walking going on. Tiredness could be a factor, as I believe it was with the Olazabal match today.

ABC would have loved to have a WOODS/Garcia final...that did not happen.

Good luck...IP

 

[bettingmad]

Ice Picks,
On this wheel....
Let's not mention Faxon again as he has just knocked out my 40/1 Olazabal

Say in 4 x 3 ball matches we make Tiger the banker to wheel with the 3 other players Cink, Els & Funk...
do you have just 3 doubles (parlays)
Tiger & Cink
Tiger & Els
Tiger & Funk
so it's a 3 stake bet

or do you also have
3 trebles (parlays)
Tiger & Cink & Els
Tiger & Els & Funk
Tiger & Funk & Cink

and one fourfold
Tiger & Cink & Els & Funk
making it a 7 stake bet?

 

[Ice Picks]

Bettingmad

Bettingmad

In you example, the "wheel" would be the 3 stake bet..Tiger with Cink; Tiger with Els, and Tiger with Funk...If you are doing this within the typical format of a normal tournament, the books typically list several head to head matches. So the premise would be to play BOTH sides of all the matches listed, insuring you would win one side in each match.

However, if memory serves, the books sometimes add or take strokes in stroke play "match" betting, and there is a possibility that both players shoot the same score.

So I don't think a wheel may work in a typical type tounament - it has to be match play where there must be a winner.

Your other parlays, I guess, are a form of the wheel, but I would think would be diffcult to hit them.

IP

 

[bettingmad]

Ice Picks,
I cannot see the point of playing both sides of a match bet... there is always a percentage for the 'house' e.g. 2 players at say -110 so you have a winner but at less than even money - you would be better off with just 2 points on your banker.

 

[Stanley]

You are right, Bettingmad

For (American) football, it works simply because of teasers. Being able to adjust the handicap means that you can feasibly hit both sides of the same match together with the same bet. You have to hit both sides in at least one match to make the wheel profitable (plus, of course, hitting the safe play!). Hence, in (American) football you wheel the safe play with as many games as you can.

But you can't have teasers in golf, so adopting the 'full wheel' is a bad bet.

The boring maths ...

Assume for now that head-to-head matchups have 20-cent lines. So each player is -110 (1.909). It doesn't not matter whether one player is -150 and the other +130, the same result holds (though it is in fact better, to a small degree).

Assuming your safe bet is -175 (1.57) and you parlay him with both players in one matchup.

The odds for each side are +200 (1.909 * 1.57 = 3.00).

So if you lay $100 on player A to win the matchup and $100 on player B to win the matchup, you will make a gain of $100 provided that the safe bet wins.

In other words, you are set to win $100 from a $200 stake, so the wheel bet has worsened the odds on your safe bet from -175 to -200.


But it can be profitable in golf if you don't bet both sides of a matchup, i.e. you are selective in your plays that you parlay your safe bet with. You are now gambling on the outcome of more than one matchup - the beauty of the wheel bet for (American) football is that you are only gambling on your safe bet - but it can be a means of enhancing your profits (again, only if the safe bet wins). That is why I referred to DTB's play in the first two days as wheel bets.

I am in now way advocating these for golf betting, just illustrating how they work and can be used to advantage