NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 8
Thursday game
Ravens (4-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)
— Last four Raven games were all decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Baltimore is 2-8 in its last ten games decided by 4 or less points.
— Ravens led 35-14/20-3/20-10 in their three losses TY.
— Ravens are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a road favorite (2-1 TY).
— Last six games, Ravens have run ball for 171.8 yards/game.
— QB Jackson leads Ravens with 510 RY; next highest is Drake, with 189 yards.
— Ravens’ last four games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 10-18-2 last 30 games vs NFC opponents.
— Ravens are 9-1 ATS last ten games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jackson is 42-18 as an NFL starter.
— AFC North teams are 5-2 ATS in non-divisional road games.
— Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games (0-5 ATS)
— Last two games, Bucs scored one TD on 19 drives.
— Last three weeks, Tampa was outscored 39-19 in second half.
— Last three weeks, Bucs ran ball 65 times for 190 yards (2.92/carry)
— With Brady, Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Tampa Bay is 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
— Tampa Bay is 0-3 this year when it gives up more than 15 points.
— Six of seven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Brady is 310-90 as a NFL starter, 32-14 in Tampa.
— NFC south teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Baltimore won last four series games.
— Favorites are 4-0-2 ATS in last six meetings.
— Ravens won 48-17/27-0 in last two visits to Tampa.
— Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Sunday’s games
Broncos (2-5) vs Jaguars (2-5) (@ London)
— Russell Wilson has shoulder/hamstring issues; check status.
— Brett Rypien was 24-46/219 in his first ’22 start (1-1 career W-L)
— Denver lost last four games, by 9-3-3-7 points.
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in six of seven games.
— Broncos allowed 9-10 points in their two wins.
— Denver held all seven opponents under 6.0 yards/pass play.
— Last five games, Broncos are 23-87 (26.4%) on third down.
— Denver is 4-5-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
— Broncos are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Six of seven Denver games stayed under the total.
— AFC West teams are 6-10 ATS outside the division.
— Jacksonville is 4-2 in its last six visits to England.
— Jaguars lost last four games, giving up 24.8 ppg.
— Last 2+ years, Jaguars are 0-5 ATS as a favorite.
— Last three games, Jacksonville ran ball for 173.3 yards/game.
— In his career, Pederson is 18-28 ATS as a favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Jaguars are 9-22-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last four weeks, Jacksonville lost field position by 13-9-5-3 yards.
— Last three weeks, opponents converted 21-40 on third down.
— Last three weeks, Jaguars were outscored 38-19 in second half.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 5-19 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South teams are 6-9 ATS outside the division.
— Denver won three of last four series games.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight.
— Under is 5-4 in last nine meetings.
Bears (3-4) @ Cowboys (5-2)
— Short week for Bears after Monday’s game win in Foxboro.
— Chicago lost three of its last four games.
— Chicago held last two opponents to 214-260 yards.
— Bears scored 19-23-33 points in wins, 12.8 ppg in losses.
— Bears have outscored foes 67-35 in second half.
— Chicago is 4-8 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Bears are 1-3 SU on road TY, losing by 17-8-7 points.
— Bears converted 11-18 third down plays in Monday’s win.
— Chicago is 2-6 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 5-12 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys won/covered five of their last six games.
— Dallas has allowed eight TD’s on 72 drives this season.
— Last three games, Dallas ran ball for 163-134-139 yards.
— In their two losses, Cowboys lost field position by 12-17 yards.
— Dallas is 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Cowboys have converted only 28-87 third down plays.
— Dallas is 11-4 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Cowboys were outscored 26-6 in first half
— Last four games, Cowboys outscored foes 57-9 in 2nd half
— Under is 6-0-1 in their games this season.
— Chicago won four of last six series games (last one was in 2019)
— Bears split last four visits to Dallas (2-2 SU/ATS)
— Last seven series games went over the total.
Panthers (2-5) @ Falcons (3-4)
— Carolina split two games since firing their coach.
— Walker is 3-1 as an NFL starter (1-1 TY)
— Panthers lost its two road games TY, 19-16 at Giants, 24-10 at Rams.
— Carolina ran ball for 173 yards in upset over Tampa Bay LW.
— Panthers are +3 in turnovers in their wins, are minus-5 in losses.
— Carolina is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Carolina has converted only 21-84 third down plays.
— Carolina is 17-21-1 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 17-39 SU.
— Five of last six Panther games stayed under the total.
— Carolina is 9-12 ATS in last 21 NFC South road games.
— Falcons are 3-2 in their last five games SU.
— Atlanta is 6-1 ATS this season- they’re favored for first time TY.
— Last four games, Falcons threw for 131 or fewer yards.
— Falcons are 14-9 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss (3-0 TY).
— Falcons are 1-6 ATS last seven games as a home favorite.
— Last four opponents converted 39-76 (51.3%) third down plays.
— Last five games, Falcons ran ball for 162.6 yards/game.
— Mariota is 33-37 as an NFL starter.
— Three of their last four games stayed under total.
— Underdogs won last five meetings SU.
— Panthers won 19-13/23-16 in last two visits to Atlanta.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Raiders (2-4) @ Saints (2-5)
— Last three games, Las Vegas scored 32-29-38 points.
— Raiders’ four losses are by 1-5-6-2 points.
— Raiders ran for 212-155-164 yards last three games (80 ypg in first 3 games).
— Las Vegas’ opponent went over team total in last five games.
— Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on road TY, giving up 26 ppg.
— Las Vegas is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, opponents converted 16-27 on third down.
— Last five Raider games went over the total.
— Derek Carr is 59-75 as an NFL starter.
— Saints lost 5 of last 6 games; their turnover ratio is minus-11.
— Saints are 0-4 when they score less than 27 points.
— New Orleans is 2-5-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
— New Orleans has been outscored 103-68 in first half.
— Last four games, Saints are 26-54 on 3rd down.
— New Orleans is 11-7-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Saints have been outscored 46-15 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last four New Orleans games went over the total.
— Dalton is 78-76-2 SU as an NFL starter, 1-3 with the Saints.
— Dennis Allen went 8-28 as Raiders’ coach from 2012-14.
— Raiders won last two meetings, 34-24/35-34.
— Las Vegas covered two of last three visits to Bourbon Street.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Steelers (2-5) @ Eagles (6-0)
— Steelers lost five of their last six games.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+9) in their wins, 12 (-7) in losses.
— Pittsburgh has only nine TD’s on 74 drives this season.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 38-10 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Steelers are 15-9 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Steelers are 9-12 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-2 in their games this season.
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 72-44 in second half of games.
— Pickett is 1-2 as a starter in his rookie season.
— Philly won its first six games, scoring 38-24-24-29-20-26 points.
— Eagles have run ball for 156 yards/game.
— Philly has converted 38-77 on 3rd down.
— Eagles outscored first six foes 126-48 in first half.
— Last five weeks, Philly scored 102 points in first half, 21 points in 2nd half.
— Eagles covered their last six games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Philly is 14-12 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 4-1 in their last four games.
— Eagles are 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 15-11 as an NFL starter.
— Home side won last five series games.
— Steelers lost 34-3/15-6 in last two visits to Philly.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Lions (1-5)
— Miami lost three of its last four games, scoring 16 ppg.
— Last four games, Dolphins were outscored 48-19 in 2nd half.
— Since 2017, Dolphins are 3-5 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY).
— Dolphins stayed under their team total in six of seven games TY.
— Miami is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Last three games, Miami is 14-49 (28.6%)on third down.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 17-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Tagovailoa is 17-9 as an NFL starter.
— Detroit lost 29-0/24-6 last two games, after scoring 35 ppg in first four.
— Detroit didn’t score in its last four red zone drives.
— Lions have given up 24+ points in every game.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-18-1 SU, 14-9 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Lions are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Detroit turned ball over nine times in last three games (minus-6)
— Under is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four games.
— Last three games, Detroit allowed 10.7/9.0/7.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Lions won last three series games.
— Favorites covered five of last six meetings.
— Dolphins won two of last three visits to Detroit.
— Dan Campbell coached for Miami from 2010-15; was interim head coach in 2015.
Cardinals (3-4) @ Vikings (5-1)
— Star WR Hopkins caught 10 balls for 103 yards in his ’22 debut LW.
— Arizona is 0-4 when it scores less than 26 points.
— Cardinals outscored last five foes 85-52 in second half.
— Five of last six opponents went under their team total.
— Under Kingsbury, Arizona is 14-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cardinals outscored opponents 35-15 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Arizona games.
— Under Kingsbury, Cardinals are 14-11 ATS coming off a win.
— Kyler Murray is 25-28-1 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings won last four games, scoring 28-28-29-24 points.
— Last three games, Jefferson caught 28 passes for 408 yards.
— Vikings are 4-9 ATS last 13 games as home favorites (1-1 TY)
— Minnesota beat Miami last game, despite being outgained 458-234.
— Last five games, Minnesota has 10 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 20.
— Since 2018, Vikings are 15-20-2 ATS in games coming off a win (3-1 TY).
— Vikings allowed 22+ points in four of last five games.
— Cousins is 65-62-2 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2009, Vikings are 3-10 ATS in post-bye games.
— Home team won last eight series games.
— Cardinals lost last seven visits to Minnesota (2-3-2 ATS)
— Over is 3-2-1 in last six meetings played here.
Patriots (3-4) @ Jets (5-2)
— Short week for New England after Monday nite loss.
— Check later this week as to whether Jones/Zappe starts at QB.
— Patriots are 20-21 SU since Brady left; 10-11 ATS on road.
— New England gave up 20-37-27-33 points in losses; 14-0-15 in wins.
— Patriots split their four road games TY, covering last three.
— Since Brady left, Patriots are 8-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— New England is 7-3 ATS last ten games coming off a loss.
— Patriots are 4-2 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
— NE is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Jets won/covered four in row, five of last six games.
— Jets lost two of their three home games SU.
— Gang Green is 3-8 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Last three games, Jets allowed four TD’s on 37 drives.
— Last three weeks, Jets outscored foes 51-10 in second half.
— Since 2018, Jets are 10-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Last three weeks, opponents converted 13-43 third down plays.
— Last two games, Jets ran ball for 179-155 yards.
— 2nd-year QB Wilson is 8-10 as an NFL starter.
— Jets are 4-1 ATS last five games with spread of 3 or less.
— New England won last 13 series games (8-4-1 ATS)
— Patriots are 3-1 ATS in last four meetings played here.
— Four of last five series games went over the total.
Titans (4-2) @ Texans (1-4-1)
— Tennessee won/covered last four games, allowing 16.5 ppg.
— Last four games, Titans allowed only 49.5 rushing yards/game.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 95-47 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 81-20 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 20-72 third down plays.
— Tennessee is 4-2 despite being outgained by 110.2 yds/game.
— Titans are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or less.
— Five of six Titan games stayed under the total.
— Tannehill is 78-64 as an NFL starter.
— Texans lost four of their last five games.
— Texans have been outscored 72-53 in second half of games.
— Houston has allowed 163.8 rushing yards/game in first six games.
— Texans are 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Texans are 9-16-1 ATS last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Houston was 9-15 on 3rd down LW (19-65 first seven games).
— Texans have scored only 61 points on 14 red zone drives.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 3-13-1 as an NFL starter.
— Tennessee won five of last seven series games.
— Titans are 1-7 ATS in last eight visits to Houston.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Giants (6-1) @ Seahawks (4-3)
— Giants won/covered six of first seven games,
— They trailed by 10+ points in three of their six wins.
— Giants won 21-20/23-17 in their two true road games TY.
— Giants have outscored opponents 97-55 in second half of games.
— Giants are 10-10 ATS last 20 games as an underdog (4-0 TY)
— Last three games, Big Blue converted 25-51 on third down.
— Giants opponents stayed under team total in six of seven games.
— Giants are 12-12-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win (4-1 TY).
— Under is 5-1-1 in Giant games this season.
— Daniel Jones is 18-26 as an NFL starter, 6-1 TY.
— Seahawks won three of their last four games.
— Seattle is 3-0 when it allows less than 27 points.
— Four of Seattle’s last five opponents went over their team total.
— Last three weeks, Seattle is 10-32 on 3rd down conversions.
— Seahawks has trailed at halftime once this year (Week 2)
— Seahawks are 2-4 ATS last six games as a home favorite.
— Seahawks are 6-13-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
— Four of Seahawks’ last five games went over the total.
— Geno Smith is 17-23 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks won four of last five series games.
— Giants are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Commanders (3-4) @ Colts (3-3-1)
— Washington won last two games, by total of seven points.
— Last six games, Commanders have been outscored 91-30 in first half.
— Last three games, Washington scored 41 points in 13 red zone drives.
— Last two games, Washington is +2 in turnovers (minus-7 in first five).
— Commanders are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a road dog (0-2 TY).
— Commanders are 11-6 ATS last 17 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, opponents converted 5-19 on third down.
— NFC East teams are 14-5 ATS in non-division games.
— Opponents stayed under their team total 4 of last 5 games.
— QB Heinicke is 8-9 as an NFL starter.
— Ehlinger gets first NFL start over benched Ryan here.
— Colts won/covered three of their last five games.
— Colts have been outscored 126-67 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Underdogs covered five of their seven games.
— Colts went under their team total in six of seven games TY.
— Last four games, Colts outscored opponents 57-25 in second half.
— Six of their seven games stayed under the total.
— Colts are 16-13-1 ATS last 30 games as a home favorite.
— Indy is 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Colts converted 25 of last 49 third down plays.
— Colts won last four series games (3-0-1 ATS)
— Washington lost 49-27/36-22 in last two visits to Indiana.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
49ers (3-4) @ Rams (3-3)
— 49ers lost last two games, giving up 28-44 points.
— Last two games, 49er opponents were 15-23 on third down.
— Since 2018, 49ers are 8-10 ATS as a road favorite. 1-3 TY.
— 49ers outscored first six opponents 92-47 in first half.
— 49ers have been outscored 86-53 in second half.
— SF have scored 91 points in 22 red zone drives (4.14)- not great.
— Five of seven 49er games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are +5 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— QB Garoppolo is 39-19 as an NFL starter.
— Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 ATS in post-bye games.
— Rams were held to 10-9-10 points in their losses.
— LA scored four touchdowns on its last 31 drives.
— Rams get C Allen, WR Jefferson back from injury this week.
— Rams have been outscored 49-10 in 4th quarter this year.
— Rams are 2-7-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
— Rams have one takeaway in last four games (minus-5).
— Rams’ last four games stayed under the total.
— Stafford is 19-8 as QB of the Rams.
— 49ers beat Rams 24-9 at home in Week 4.
— San Francisco won seven of last eight meetings (lost NFC title game LY)
— 49ers are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Los Angeles.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven series games.
Packers (3-4) @ Bills (5-1)
— Packers lost last three games, to Giants/Jets/Commanders.
— Green Bay has only four takeaways (minus-5 in turnovers) TY.
— Green Bay outscored last six foes 82-43 in first half.
— Packers are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Last four weeks, Green Bay gave up 159.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last three games, Green Bay converted 8 of 32 third down plays.
— Green Bay went under its team total in six of seven games.
— Rodgers is 153-80-1 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 12-2 ATS in last 14 regular season games coming off a loss.
— Bills won their first two home games, 41-7/38-3.
— Buffalo outgained first five opponents by 159.3 yards/game.
— Bills outscored first six opponents 84-17 in second half.
— Buffalo converted 38 of first 72 (52.7%) third down plays.
— Buffalo is 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Bills have only led at halftime in two of six games TY (2-1-3)
— Buffalo has 32 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 19)
— All six Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Josh Allen is 47-25 as an NFL starter.
— Home side won last six series games.
— Packers lost last three visits to Buffalo, scoring 13.7 ppg.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.
Monday’s game
Bengals (4-3) @ Browns (2-4)
— Cincinnati won four of last five games (5-0 ATS).
— Bengals’ three losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Last three games, Cincy converted 32-60 on 3rd down.
— Bengals outscored opponents 78-30 in second half.
— Bengals are 4-2 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
— Cincy is 7-4-2 ATS last 13 games coming off a win.
— Five of Bengals’ first seven games stayed under the total.
— Bengals are 3-0-1 ATS in last four AFC North road games.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 19-17-1 as an NFL starter.
— Cleveland lost last four games, giving up 23-30-38-23 points.
— Five of Browns’ first seven games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Last three games, Browns converted 15-50 on third down.
— Last three weeks, Cleveland was outscored 54-26 in second half.
— Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Browns are 10-15-2 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their seven games went over the total.
— Brissett is 16-28 as an NFL starter.
— Browns turned ball over nine times in last three games (minus-6)
— Browns won seven of last eight series games.
— Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight visits to Cleveland.
— Over is 6-0-1 in last seven meetings.
