World Cup Qualifiers
I will be up early tomorrow morning as probably the most interesting game of the weekend starts at 6:30 a.m. EST.
Australia visits Japan in an extremely important game. Japan sits 1 point above Australia in the standings and Aussies sit tied with Saudi Arabia after their loss this week. If Japan wins they are in. If Aussies lose they have to win next game at home against Thailand, who they lost to on the road, and hope they win by more than Saudi Arabia, who happens to be at home against Japan. Yes, it is very interesting. Have to think that Australia, while they would love a win, will totally play for the draw and try to catch Japan on the counter. Similar to how they played Chile in the Confederation's Cup. While they can lose and still advance, goal differential will be a factor to avoid the playoff. My take is that Australia likes their chances against Thailand at home, so a draw would be a great result. Of course Japan feels this is a must win game. If they lose the next two they fall into a difficult playoff in Asia and then against CONCACAF. Like I said, a very interesting game to watch. Betting is more difficult in my opinion. Either a draw or an under to me, neither a big play.
Brazil/Ecuador. Brazil is on fire and already qualified. Ecuador is fighting for their lives. Brazil has scored 2 or more goals in all 11 WCQs. Ecuador has scored at least one goal in all 9 away WCQs and games have been over 2.5 in last 6. Everything points to the over and we have Brazil playing lose. I will take the Ov 2.5 -135. I expect this line to climb.
Argentina/Uruguay game is huge. Argentina is one point ahead of them and in 5th place. They need this win and Uruguay is in poor form, but I do not like betting against them at home. Bolivia has not won a WCQ on the road since Jesus roamed the earth but no sure I trust Peru to win by 2 goals. Remember, without the DQ games for Bolivia they would be right with Peru in the standings. Chile games have gone over 2.5 in their last 5 WCQs.
Europe is tough tomorrow. France/Holland is the marquee match up. Both teams have not been stellar in qualifying. France is completely loaded and Holland is putting the old team together (vanPersie, Sneijder and Robben). Should see some goals here, but not sure why the line is not higher. Playing the Ov 2.5 -115.
I am also playing Portugal -3.5 -130 over Faroe Islands. They beat them 6-0 there and they need to win this game. I usually do not like to lay this type of goals, but I expect a 4 or 5 to nil game.
Others I am still deciding on include: Hungary -1.5 Even (won 2-0 at Latvia), Cyprus +1 Ev (tough place to play) and Switzerland Un 4.5 -110 (Andorra can't score but they play some defense, Swiss won 2-1 there).
USA -135. Playing this now as I expect this line to climb. I do not love this US squad but this is a must win game in my opinion especially after losing 4-0 in Costa Rica. They have not lost since that game and I expect them to play a spirited match. They have won 13 of 14 WCQ at home. That is hard to ignore. Plus, I do not think Costa Rica has been at its best lately.
A lot to take in as there is a lot going on. I will try to add some more thoughts/definitive plays tomorrow based on overnight line movements.
