Soccer 2017 January - May

[DZ]

Good call DZ! No idea where Kid is.

Anti-Champions League Weekend

I usually like this angle and I like it again since we only have one week off between games and everyone thinks they can still advance.

Crystal Palace-135/Leicester - No way I see Leicester giving an A effort here as they have a legitimate chance to advance at home against Atletico. Plus Crystal has been solid at home and Leicester still has a poor road record. Think this is the best bet of the bunch.

Leverkusen +.5 +130/+410/Bayern - Bayern has to get the win in Madrid, and I think it is possible, but I do not see them focused on this game. Plus Leverkusen is fighting for Euro spot and they should believe they have a chance to win. Similar to recent Bayern/Hoffenheim game. Primary play will be the +.5 but will sprinkle a little on the +410.

Franfurt +1 +120/Dortmund - Frankfurt is still fighting for Euro spot and Dortmund thinks they can re-group in Monaco next week, but I think they have a tough time getting it together for this game. This should be a tight game.

Real Sociedad +2 -110/Barca. Sociedad typically plays Barca tough at home but I will take the 2 goals here as Barca will be distracted. I am sure they think they can come back again against Juve so there heads will be on that game.

Sporting Gijon +1 +115/Real Madrid. Real got the huge result in Munich so they are still on a high from that game and focused on closing Bayern out.

Laying off Juve as they play the worst team in the league as well as Monaco at home.

The first two are the strongest plays in my opinion, the rest are smaller, especially Spain, since it can be unpredictable, so if you want limited plays I would stick with the top 2.

Could be totally off base here and it is tough to bet against all these teams, but the one week lay off is unusual and I expect some distracted teams this weekend.

Bason, great write-up and thanks for the props on the Man-U draw. It's rare that I provide an original idea in this thread that actually works out :lol:

Love the anti-Champions League angle. Will probably be tailing most of these, but I have a few thoughts...

As far as the La Liga this weekend...

The only one from the above list that I'm not sure about is Real Madrid. They do a really good job of beating up on the weaker competition in their league, plus 1 goal isn't all that much for them to cover. I'm can see Real giving up a goal, as they have been wont to do this season on the road. A final score of 3-1 wouldn't surprise me, so I would be more inclined to take the over there.

Probably wise laying off Osasuna since they've allowed whopping 70 goals in 31 league matches, but I do wonder on an off-week against the poorest of league competition whether Atletico will continue to keep their focus on defense as razor-sharp as it has been in La Liga all season. If they get an early goal against Osasuna, maybe they just sit back and take it easy in anticipation of their upcoming CL game at Leicester. Under 3 could be a good play there, but I'm not so confident.

Love the value on Sociedad +2 against a Barca team in poor form (for them) and an under-performing back line. Also, Sociedad is just a point out of top 6 in their table and a European Qualification spot, which they missed out on last season. This could be a touch match for a distracted Barca, who Sociedad should have beaten at home earlier this year in league play (the November match ended in a draw after a clear goal was incorrectly ruled offside in the 76th minute).


Finally, as far as Monaco goes, it will be hard to question their motivation and focus after PSG defeated Angers today to full even at the top of Ligue 1 table. Dijon at 2nd to last in Ligue 1, will not provide much of a challenge in Monaco, especially not if Monaco has revenge on their mind after allowing a late goal in their last meeting in November in which the sides drew even at one all.

 

[DZ]

Like your plays, Bason. Especially CP, will definitely be tailing. I'm only backing Dortmund because of the unique situation that took place, thinking they'll want to rally around their town and vica versa givin the circumstances. GL!

Fantastic point. I think this might be enough reason to lay off Frankfurt and possibly make a play on Dortmund. I heard that Dortmund was none too pleased with Fifa asking them to turn around and play the CL match the very next day after the bombing. Apparently, they felt as if Fifa was treating the situation like a "beer had been thrown at the bus." I wouldn't be surprised to see them rise to the occasion for a big home win tomorrow. Not to mention, the recent match history between these two has been very favorable to the home team on either side.

 

[DZ]

I just went to take a quick look back at how Barca fared in League play after their lopsided defeat to PSG in the last round of Champions league. Although, this is a much quicker turnaround and Barca played four league matches between Leg 1 and Leg 2 (3 weeks apart) of the previous CL round, it's worth mentioning that they fared quite in those four matches before the lead up to the big comeback against PSG. However, in their first match just four days after the 4-0 loss to PSG, they struggled mightily with Leganes, who were sitting at fourth worst in the table at that time. The match could have very easily been a draw had Leganes not conceded a late penalty in the 89th minute, which Messi converted for the 2-1 victory at home. Leganes were 2.5 goal underdogs (at plus money!) in that match on Feb 19th.

 

[Vig]

Fyi RM will be sitting Ronaldo, Bale, and Benzema tomorrow. What to do with that info.....

 

[Bradjmad22]

Italy Serie A
Torino/Crotone over 2.5 (-200)
$120 to win $60


I've been following both of these teams the last few weeks, so don't let the standings fool you. Both have improved on offense since early March. Crotone fighting to stay out of relegation, while Torino only knows how to attack. Should be fun with the winner getting at least 2-3 (while failing to keep a clean sheet)

 

[Vig]

Caught the tail end of the FH CP/Leicester. Any second half play?

 

[BASON]

Sorry Vig, didn't get to the computer in time. I did bet CP in the second half since it was only -110 in order to cut my losses on the game. They were much better in the second half.

Have to seriously question the Leicester coach in this game. They are going to have tired starters for arguably the biggest game of their lives on Tuesday. His inexperience showed today. No way Vardy should have started this game let alone play the full 90. It got them a meaningless draw today but may cost them a place in the Champions League semi-finals.

Good call on Dortmund as they were too much for Frankfurt today.

 

[Vig]

No sweat, thinking Leicester would go through the motions in 2H I played draw for the game small and Everton 2H. Covered my CP game bet plus some. Didn't post because admittedly I was chasing, and I didn't want to drag anyone down with me lol. Man I loved CP today, yet another example don't fall in love with any play...

 

[BASON]

Agree on CP. I play a decent amount of second halves but I rarely post them since there is very little time to get it in once I finally decide to play it. Plus, I do not think it is always a good idea to chase and increase your loss (Bayern a perfect example today as I am sure many Bayern players doubled up on the second half). Most of my half time plays are used to buy out part of a bet or to get greedy with a middle. I rarely use it to double up or chase.

Hoping many got Sporting +1.5 today versus the +1 yesterday and the Leverkusen +.5 win was extremely lucky.

Need Kid to talk me out of Chelsea tomorrow!

 

[DZ]

Hoping many got Sporting +1.5 today versus the +1 yesterday and the Leverkusen +.5 win was extremely lucky.

Need Kid to talk me out of Chelsea tomorrow!

Nice calls Bason. Real over and Sociedad came through as well. Anyone with thoughts on the match in Old Trafford tomorrow? I was thinking that the DRAW might be a good play there, but the +210 price isn't very appealing. Also looking at the Sevilla-Valencia match tomorrow. Valencia playing in good form in the month of April and the last four matches between these two have gone the way of the home team. Any thoughts on other games tomorrow?

 

[Vig]

I think the line is worrying if you're a Chelsea bettor. Goal line is pk with even prices.... Don't have stats in front of me, but I've yet to see United coordinate a solid effort against an upper echelon opponent this season. Yet the line looks really easy for Chelsea....My two cents, Bason

This line has me all twisted, I'll probably be sitting it out, but I do follow line moves....

 

[BASON]

Sorry for the late post, I like the over 2.5 -135 in the Bremen game.

 

[BASON]

I am going with Chelsea in a Pk.

DZ, I agree that this could easily be a draw, but I simply do not trust Man U at home. Tottenham is putting enough pressure on Chelsea to keep them interested and Man U has an important Euro game coming up. I think we see a motivated Chelsea team today so I will go with them in a Pk versus the draw. Just a small play.

 

[BASON]

I am taking Middlesbrough +450 tomorrow. No way Arsenal should be -165 in this game. Yes, it is a long shot and probably a bad bet, but I am thinking Arsenal is quitting on their coach. They were truly pathetic against Palace and I am hoping for the same effort tomorrow. I have been betting against Middlesbrough for a while and said months ago they would get relegated. However, they get a less than motivated Arsenal team, and with losses by Hull and Swansea, they still have some hope if they get 3 points. Likely, maybe not, but I will take the generous home odds against a team that has not had a road win this year and hope to start the week out right. By no means a big play, but worth a few $$ in my opinion.

The over may be worth a play also as Middlesbrough has to attack in this game.

 

[BASON]

Middlesbrough gave it a go in the second half and had some chances, but they are simply a horrible offensive team. I don't think we will see them up for a while.

Champions League

Real/Bayern Ov 3/3.5 - If you can get 3 on this line I would lay the large juice, if not, I would still play it, but maybe not as big, as I expect goals in this game. I still believe Bayern has a good chance in this game and to advance, but I will play the over instead of them. Lewandowski will make a difference in this game. This should be an exciting game.

Leicester +.5 -125. I would like this more if the Leicester coach was not a moron. They should have rested many more players this weekend in a meaningless game against Palace. I still think they give a strong effort at home so I will take the .5 goal here, but I worry about their fitness. I really think they have a chance to advance, which would be a second miracle for them.

The over bet is a little stronger for me than the Leicester bet.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I'm in. Good luck.

 

[BASON]

Hit a long shot parlay last night so going to make it a little more interesting today. Adding the following lines to advance:

Leicester +475
Bayern+280

The Bayern line already moved down significantly since it was first posted this morning. I will play almost twice as much on Bayern than Leicester, but I think one of these will come thru. I like the value in the Bayern line versus playing +180 to win. Leicester is a tougher play but getting almost 5-1 at home is a good value prop in my opinion, plus it could open an opportunity for a half time bet. Atletico money is pouring in, so I may be the only one giving Leicester a chance today! These are simply action plays so don't go crazy.

I am also adding the Ov 1.5 +110 in the first half of the Bayern game. I think Bayern has to score early to have any chance in this game so I expect an all out blitz to get that first goal.

I am tempted to bet both teams to score in the Leicester game at even money since I expect Leicester to score. Love it in the Bayern game but not at -300. You have the same total as the Dortmund game last week where I laid the -225 for both teams to score, but now it is -300! I think that line is telling and makes me like the over even more in this game, so I would rather add to that than lay -300.

As you can tell I am intrigued by today's games. I will also likely play an exact score or two at big odds to make it more interesting.

Enjoy! Tomorrow should be just as intriguing.

 

[Vig]

GL Bason :0074

 

[BASON]

The Hungarian ref should be taken out and shot after this game. Refs made a mess out of what should have been a great game. A bs red card on a play that was not even a foul (this was after I gave him credit for eating what would have been a red card for Real right before that call) and then a clear offsides goal that likely decides the game. That is what we Americans call good ole fashion home cooking. Nothing irritates me more than poor officiating deciding games!!

 

[BASON]

Champions League

Two plays for now. Dortmund/Monaco Ov3.5 -110 and first half Ov 1.5 Ev. I can not find a reason not to play the overs today. Dortmund has to do what they do well, attack. Monaco only knows how to attack and is weak defensively. Would not be surprised to see another 3-2 game. Dortmund line is telling and may be a play depending on what the advance line is. I expect a great effort from them today.

Will try to be back later today if I can. Unfortunately have to work today and will be in the car most of the day so may not get back in time. Have not seen both teams to score lines yet but I like it in both games if not too pricey and want to check out advance lines if I can.