Soccer 2018 January-May

[BASON]

Mourinho is a freaking idiot. He thinks he is so much smarter than everyone with the lineups he plays and is always trying to prove it. Well it blew up in his face today. Horrible loss for Man U today.

At least Cardiff saved me from a bad day. No excuses for Villa. A really bad loss given Cardiff and Wolves win.

Not the day I wanted, but it rarely is. We move on.

Don't think the Bayern game is attractive. BTTS would be the best bet but very pricey. Not real motivation for Bayern's best effort here. They gave their A effort on Saturday and I expect some lineup changes.

I don't think Chelsea has a chance tomorrow. They are not in good form, especially on the road. They will try to bunker down but once Barca breaks through I think it could get out of hand. They lost 3-0 to Roma in CL on the road and I expect a similar result tomorrow. I am playing Barca FH and GL. Decent size play for me.

 

[BASON]

Barca goes as scripted for a very profitable day!!

Will have a couple smaller Euro plays up later.

 

[BASON]

Euro

I like a few plays tomorrow but I am only playing one: Kiev+.5-130/+220

Simply do not understand this line and I do not expect the +.5 to last overnight. I have made my feelings about playing in the Ukraine well known in here over the years. We had a nice hit with Shaktar last round and I expect the same tomorrow with Kiev. Plus, we have the added benefit of a 2-2 draw in the first game and we still have a +.5 line. I simply do not think Lazio it that much better. Also, Lazio is seriously fighting for position in Serie A, so I am not sure their head will be 100% in this game. All of this points to Dynamo being a nice value play. Will focus most of my play on the +.5 with a little on the +220.

With the profits from the Barca play today and the value I see here, I do not think any other plays tomorrow are warranted. If I were to play more I would be on Zenit and Bilbao in a Pk as both are tough places to play.

 

[Vig]

Very nice Barca win, Bason! Another EPL team falls, no surprise. I'll be joining you with Kiev, GL

 

[Vig]

9 EST: Colombia

Deportivo Cali -1 -115 vs Once Caldas

Another anti first place team play. Going smallish, these teams are only 7 league games in. Something else to follow with SU/ASU game. Go Orangemen opcorn2



D. Cali wins 2-1 = PUSH

 

[Snafu]

i'm gonna try AC Milan again and knowing Wengers "if we lose but still proceed, all good"-approach i don't think it's impossible for Milan to take win. Or even qualify, but it sure needs more effort than last two matches. They were pretty lucky to win Genova.

AC Milan
+? -109 x 2
to win +285
to qualify +803

other euro-plays
Locomotiv Moscow +? +102 and to win +370

Kiev - Lazio DRAW +267
U2? +115

gl :0008

forgot to mention that Milan has some line up problems in defence: Andrea Conti, Davide Calabria and Ignazio Abate are not playing.

 

[Snafu]

swedish reds are fuking this up... they own pk for milan now.
first welbek takes dive = penalty and then no pk for clear hand ball...


HT plays:

O10? corners -105 ( now 5 )
AC Milan tt O1? -110 x 2 ( now 1 )

:0corn

 

[BASON]

Today is a perfect example of why Euro is difficult to handicap. Glad I took it easy.

 

[DZ]

Today is a perfect example of why Euro is difficult to handicap. Glad I took it easy.

I wish I knew Dortmund was going to phone it in...:facepalm:

 

[Snafu]

well, that didn't go well. Arse got now two wins where numbers don't show whole truth, they are still far away from a solid team and any top team should beat team. btw Arsenal takes over two weeks off before final part of the season.

 

[Snafu]

Champions League quarter-final draw

Barcelona v Roma
Sevilla v Bayern Munich
Juventus v Real Madrid
Liverpool v Manchester City

Euro league:

Leipzig (GER) v Marseille (FRA)
Arsenal (ENG) v CSKA Moskva (RUS)
Atl?tico (ESP) v Sporting CP (POR)
Lazio (ITA) v Salzburg (AUT)

 

[Subcloser]

a few that grabbed my eye...let me know what you guys have any insight...all afternoon kickoffs

FRA2...Auxerre +128...Chateauroux PK -114

GER...Stuttgart PK +101

IRE...Shamrock -108

 

[BASON]

Germany game is a tough one. Freiburg needs a result at home where they play well. Stuttgart not so good on the road. This game has draw written all over it. Should be slow low scoring match.

Small play on Monaco Ov 3-120. They should score 3 themselves.

Sub, I would use Monaco is a larger ML parlay with a few tomorrow for your contest.

 

[Subcloser]

Germany game is a tough one. Freiburg needs a result at home where they play well. Stuttgart not so good on the road. This game has draw written all over it. Should be slow low scoring match.

Small play on Monaco Ov 3-120. They should score 3 themselves.

Sub, I would use Monaco is a larger ML parlay with a few tomorrow for your contest.

Thanks I am looking at putting together a parlay for tomorrow using those types of matches...lot to choose from on Saturday...the more I looked at the German match I tend to agree with you about the tempo, laying off that one...I have narrowed my pool down to Shamrock which at this point is my favorite play today and Aux ML in FRA2...let me know any thoughts on the Shamrockmatchup, I have it as a pretty large mismatch on paper

 

[BASON]

Recent history in the Shamrock game is what would keep me off of it. They have only won outright in 1 of the last 10 between them. I am by no means an expert in that league, so that is all I really have to go on.

I would look at Wolverhampton, Juve, and Napoli for your larger ML play. Also I like Fulham tomorrow, especially after QPR just beat Villa. All 5 should get you close to a 2.5 to 1 return. Take out Fulham and it is still better than even money. FA Cup games are always unpredictable so I would stay away there though Swansea +1 at home is very tempting to me!

 

[Subcloser]

Recent history in the Shamrock game is what would keep me off of it. They have only won outright in 1 of the last 10 between them. I am by no means an expert in that league, so that is all I really have to go on.

I would look at Wolverhampton, Juve, and Napoli for your larger ML play. Also I like Fulham tomorrow, especially after QPR just beat Villa. All 5 should get you close to a 2.5 to 1 return. Take out Fulham and it is still better than even money. FA Cup games are always unpredictable so I would stay away there though Swansea +1 at home is very tempting to me!

never had much luck with FA Cup myself but I know there are spots with some of the home sides that are good...To me it takes a lot of leg work to cap those games...I will look into the other ones you mentioned later today when things slow down...I'm still trying to get Spring Training numbers down before lineups are announced...thanks again man, gl today

 

[Vig]

9 EST: Mexico


Eliminating first place Santos Laguna from winning which leaves Puebla pk -120 and Draw +215.

Not putting the bet in until right before first kick, I'll monitor this line throughout the day. All things being equal then, play on Puebla GL, then as the game goes live, I'll look to add to Puebla through the game and sprinkle some on Draw as needed.

Safest play if you don't plan to live bet is Puebla pk....


If the line gets jumpy on Santos Laguna before tonight, then no bet...

 

[Subcloser]

FRA2...Auxerre +128 (nickel)

laying off Shamrock...too many unknown factors about this particular game...I did put Derry City into a parlay on the ML...making this one my only play today for a nickel...gl guys

 

[Subcloser]

FRA2...Auxerre +128 (nickel)

(Sakhi H.)Yattara M (2') :0065

 

[DZ]

FRA2...Auxerre +128 (nickel)

(Sakhi H.)Yattara M (2') :0065

:0074