UFC 134: Rio ? Silva vs. Okami 2 August 27, 2011

ukgaz

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nedkov sort of seems like karlos vemola 2.0.....he got a little lucky taking out wiuff(who has relatively poor stand-up....and is basically a truck physically.....he`s fighting a slicker lefty here in his backyard..and nedkov has no ufc experience)...and a split decision vs an old.used up randleman doesn`t exactly inspire confidence...

looks to me like nedkov will have to close distance,clinch and try and rough cane up/take him down....and i have no idea what cane`s ground game is like... seems like all these brazilian strikers (belfort ,thiago silva etc) have black belts.....but what does that really mean?.... actually,nedkov has a black belt but his subs seem to be all bvasically rear naked chokes...more a wrestling based move..when i see" black belt",i`m always a little skeptical...

interesting that cane was scheduled to fight vemola before vemola sustained an injury and pulled out.....

i need to look at this one a little harder....off the top of my head i`m thinking that nedkov`s best shot is an early stoppage...but i need to take a longer look...

interesting fight...

edit...wanted to have some fun with some undercard fights so i parred alcantarra/thiago and erick silva at even money...i like all 3 but the odds look a bit long on all....

nedkov-cane/jabouin-loveland/assuncao-eduardo all seem as though the dogs are a bit dangerous...

When I looked at this fight I compared Nedkov with Vemola. Vemola basically just overpowers guys and when he comes up against someone he can not push around he is trouble. Nedkov is not quite as strong but has more skills on the ground. Standing I think they are at the same level.

As for Cane guard. I'm not sure if he will look for attacks or just try to stand back up
 

ukgaz

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i`ve been reading that pearson might be thinking about taking barboza to the mat...that might just screw the itd prop as well as all of the barboza players(including me)....

I would think wrestling is Pearson's focal point in training for this fight. He is giving up silly reach and striking with this guy is asking for trouble.
 

fastfrank

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They corrected it and put it at +105. Now it's back to Schaub ITD at -101 and Shuab by KO/TKO at -105.

Are these fockers just playing games or what :shrug:

Kind of depends whose book we are talking about. I recall 5Dimes putting up a line in boxing on a favorite-500. It was changed the next day to -300. Doubt the other side got that much play but who knows. Sometimes they might be testing the waters, but I'd say they mostly move lines based on action. Was a huge pissing contest going on with boxing posters regarding odds makers/books perusing these forums. Unless you name is Billy Walters, forget it. They don't give a rats ass. Some guys have peculiar imaginations, or big egos.
 

THE_THONG

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^They also mysteriously corrected that Schaub line as well.

Looks like these guys really do read these boards. Probably try to figure out which posters have accounts through reviewing wagering history, forum contests ect.

Then they take your address and google earth your home.

Maybe they even put a trojan on your comp that secretly activates your webcam and records you when youre pulling your pud.

You know what? I don't give a shit. I hope that Joey Odessa guy got a good show.

5dimes is reading my mind!!! i will never get the edge over them. they have ESP!1
 

DeFactoCrippler

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Kind of depends whose book we are talking about. I recall 5Dimes putting up a line in boxing on a favorite-500. It was changed the next day to -300. Doubt the other side got that much play but who knows. Sometimes they might be testing the waters, but I'd say they mostly move lines based on action. Was a huge pissing contest going on with boxing posters regarding odds makers/books perusing these forums. Unless you name is Billy Walters, forget it. They don't give a rats ass. Some guys have peculiar imaginations, or big egos.

I don't know if they change the lines based on what people say, but they definitely read the forums, all they need to do is subscribe to this thread :shrug:

The Schaub line is a mistakeat 5dimes. Schuab ITD is -101 and shaub by KO/TKO is -105

i.e the odds they have listed for schaub to win by KO/TKO, sub, or DQ at -101 are actually better than the odds for Schaub to win by KO/TKO only at -105. So, If Schuab ITD is -101, the line for schaub by KO/TKO only should have better odds. (aleast +100)

The mistake was up there when I posted it before. When you mentioned the barboza line moved I checked all the props and they changed it to +105 for Schuab KO/TKO while leaving Schuab ITD at -101.

But then they inexplicably changed it back to -105 after I made that post about them reading the forums.

Now, there are three possible explanations for this.

1. I hallucinated the +105. Because after all I was tripping on acid like Hunter S Thompson in Fear and Loathing at the time.

2. They moved the line back to -105 because someone bet it back up, but they failed to move the Schaub ITD line as well, recreating the same mistake that was there in the first place. But, I doubt they are that stupid.

3. They got called out for lurking the forums and don't want us to know about it, so changed it back to -105 in an attempt to cover it up.

Anyways, the line up there currently is a mistake. I wonder if they will correct it and what line will be if they do...

:popcorn2
 

fastfrank

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Maybe someday we will get a definitive answer about this stuff. Trouble is the explanation will probably come from someone like Odessa, so you can take it for what its worth. You remember Pinnacle? I called them once to check on a line I wanted to bet into. I did this because I did'nt want my bet cancelled because of an "obvious" bad line. In 5 minutes the bet was taken down. They kept it off the board for 24 hours? Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men!
 

kickserv

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Pinnacle is still around...just not open to USA customers.


Oh and for what it is worth everybody knows BUCSnotYUCKS moves MMA lines.
 

THE_THONG

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pinnacle changed a lot

i read they hired english dudes soon after booting american players, seemed like the book went way conservative

pinnacle was one of the top places that took HUGE action
 

THE_THONG

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Maybe someday we will get a definitive answer about this stuff. Trouble is the explanation will probably come from someone like Odessa, so you can take it for what its worth. You remember Pinnacle? I called them once to check on a line I wanted to bet into. I did this because I did'nt want my bet cancelled because of an "obvious" bad line. In 5 minutes the bet was taken down. They kept it off the board for 24 hours? Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men!

i remember a message board buddy bet a bad line thinking it was a good line, he got jhonny gonzalez +500 over gerry penalosa and STILL LOST

:facepalm:
 

The Sponge

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i think this is a really tough betting card.
I was thinking of taking Silva but those odds are ridiculous. Over 5 to 1 against a guy who is pretty much a carbon copy of Chael? Okami has just the style to give Silva fits if there is any style that does. To take a shot at Silva at those prices is insane.
Forrest Shogun who knows. Which Shogun shows up? I think Forrest has a real legitimate shot here simply by gassing Shogun but the way that Forrest has been talking im not sure how much heart he has left in this sport. This is one of those bets that if i take a side i wouldn't be surprised if i lost. Barbosa against Pearson? I think guys are blowing Barbosa potential way out of porportion. I took him in his last fight blindly because of guys on the board and i thought he barely won and he was a three to 1 fav. Pearson was looking great and then loses to Miller in a bad looking fight for him. Who knows what Pearson shows up but to bet Barbosa at those odds? I think i will just stick with my anti Shaub play for now unless i see Nog using a walker at the weigh in. Palahres/Miller. Im a big fan of Palhares but a really strong wrestler (miller) is a bad style for him so to me it isn't worth the chance. Paulie Thiago looks like an easy pick but man 4 to 1? Sheese.
 

The Sponge

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It's the same process with Wanderlei Silva (35). Even though he was stopped by Belfort early in his career it was not until Sept 2006 when he was put out by Mirko with a brutal headkick that the slide started. He was knocked out 3 times in his next 7 fights with the most recent to Leben

I don't think it is the same process cause Wandy doesn't know any other way to fight but balls to the wall which is silly for him now.
 

DeFactoCrippler

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Anyways, the line up there currently is a mistake. I wonder if they will correct it and what line will be if they do...
:popcorn2

They changed it back +105. I can't be bothered to take a screen shot but I looked at it twice to make sure I'm not crazy.

The line wasn't a mistake that could hurt 5dimes. Because Schuab ITD is still -101 which was their correct line.

My point was they must read these forums because they corrected it within an hour (or sooner) of my posting about it.

I remember GK talking about how the euro books would lurk the forums and just steal the odessa line and add juice to whichever way it looking like the betting action was going.

i.e At 5dimes Fighter A is -120 and Fighter B is +100. If it looked the action was going to come in on the fave the Euro books would put up a line like Fighter A -150 and Fighter be still at +100. If it looked like the dog was getting action, the line would look like Fighter A -125 and Fighter B -125.

I think the guys who say not to talk about fights and stuff until the line comes out may have a point...
 

DeFactoCrippler

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pinnacle changed a lot

i read they hired english dudes soon after booting american players, seemed like the book went way conservative

pinnacle was one of the top places that took HUGE action

I remember they even had a product placement plug on The Sopranos about taking big action on a boxing match.
 

fastfrank

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Barboza-Pearson prop

Barboza-Pearson prop

Barboza wins in round 3+700. I played this because my superior intellect:142smilie says Barboza wins inside; 5Dimes has starts round 2-330. So I'm thinking if it ends inside, round 3 could work. At +700 it ain't so shabby. Of course it could go the distance or end in rd. 2. But that's why its called gambling.
 

kickserv

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Okami at the weigh-in said.......

"I am going to win"


Well there ya have it.........

:box2:
 

muhr

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glad i took schaub at -206 a few days ago.

nog is around his heaviest and claims to have accelerated his rehab in order to fight in this event.
 
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