UFC 84: MAY 24th, Las Vegas...Picks and Analysis

[rawli007]

Did anyone see the weigh-in?
Tito took off his gear and low and behold, he was wearing a t-shirt that said "Dana is my bitch".

Of course Dana was nowhere to be seen.
It was pretty funny.

And in Dana's place was some guy that looked like a taller version of Albert Einstein...??

:shrug: :shrug:

 

[kegray1]

I think Tito will be denied from wearing anything of that nature,unless someone in his corner sneaks it out.
I hope Tito hits Dana with the double rods :fingerc:
An old Tito staple.

 

[weepaul]

Why is everybody picking the 3 hard fights on this card when there is one fight that seems to good to be true:
The African Assassin Sokoudjou(-250) over Nakamura---This will be a 1stR KO. I HAVE LITTLE OR NO DOUBT.

As for the other 3 fights:
BJ handles Sean with no issues. BJ only tired when he put on weight abd moved up. Sean off the roids so no telling on his stamina.

Wandy over Jardine-- Wandy will be all over him which is not what Chuck did to Keith. Keith can't finish Wandy and Wandy pressure will keep Keith from winning a decision.

Machida over Tito.-- If this goes to the cards and it is somewhat close, does anyone think Tito will get the decision in his last UFC fight. Tito needs a stoppage and that wont happen.

Just my two cents.

WOW Bud. the only fight we agree on is BJ.

I have a big bet on Nak over Sok. Sok looks like the African version of "The Incredible Hulk" while Nak looks like a fat, harmless Budah. I think looks are very deceiving for this fight. If Nak lasts the first couple of minutes (and that's a big "IF") Sok could be in trouble. I believe Nak is the better grappler and has the better stamina.
Nak wins this one for all us pudgy guys.

Good luck all.

 

[kickserv]

ok....this funny......there actually is a prop (non sponsor) that has the following:


Joe Rogan will interview Tito after the fight +130

Joe Rogan will NOT interview Tito after the fight -150


that's funny:mj07:

 

[HurricaneEddy]

Alot of value in the undercard (very good fighters at very good prices) -I think Yoshida, Carwin and Kim are gonna get wins tonight.

The only main event guy I'd wager on tonight is Penn but at -240 I'd probably only include him in a parlay .

Machida has more upside and the promotion behind him so he "should" win but the style matchup worries me. I aint touchin

Jardine is fresher and getting Silva at a good time BUT Silva has the better striking skills. I aint touchin

Should be a fun card to watch. Good luck to all who wagered

 

[rawli007]

Alot of value in the undercard (very good fighters at very good prices) -I think Yoshida, Carwin and Kim are gonna get wins tonight.

The only main event guy I'd wager on tonight is Penn but at -240 I'd probably only include him in a parlay .

Machida has more upside and the promotion behind him so he "should" win but the style matchup worries me. I aint touchin

Jardine is fresher and getting Silva at a good time BUT Silva has the better striking skills. I aint touchin

Should be a fun card to watch. Good luck to all who wagered

Yea, the undercards r interesting...

People are jumping on Yoshida, Carwin, and that Palhares character who is fighting Ivan Suckery...

... i may make a play on Carwin after learning more about him and Wellisch... seems Wellisch might take a beating.

ALL BETS ARE IN: :mj07:

BJ Penn: 2 units
Shane Carwin: 2 units
Tito Ortiz: 3 units :mj09:

GLA

 

[gardenweasel]

anybody notice the props on penn/sherk?....

penn inside the distance at -175....penn by decision at +1105!.......

in other words,penn will finish sherk is basically what the bookies are saying....i`m a little surprised that sherk`s being discounted by most...looking at his record,there are some impressive wins..nick diaz,florian,franca.....2 wins over karo parisyan back in the day..manny gamburyan, who has impressed me...

i doubt that if it gets to the 3rd,penn`s finishing sherk....just my opinion..unless he accumulates a ton of damage in the 1st 2 rounds..

9 stoppages on penn`s record...5 in the 1st/3 in the second/1 in the 3rd(non-wrestler takanori gomi)....his record in fights that go 3 rounds or better is 4-4-1....

the longer it goes...the tougher it will be to sub sherk..he`s got the better stamina..

so,we`ll take a shot with sherk and maybe hedge with the penn wins in rd 1 and rd 2 at +275 and +443 respectively...penn is really dangerous early...when he`s fresh...he dominated hughes and st pierre early...and faltered after tiring...

penn is naturally a little bigger..so maybe he can overwhelm sherk early..maybe land a kick(even though sherk keeps his guard very high)

i worry that the ufc is very interested in keeping the b.j. penn legend alive....he`s alot more marketable than sherk...so,if it`s real close...if sherk doesn`t dominate late,he`ll have problems..

i`ll be fine with b.j. winning early..

all doggie odds...so the pain won`t be unbearable if it all goes down the shitter...

waiting to see how the sherk odds shake out..

the elite xc odds are up and i`m verrrry disappointed in the -325 odds on robbie lawler..i`m not impressed with scott smith...he fails every time he steps up...he should have lost to pete sell..lawler`s just to sound on his feet...he`s just to tough..he gets better with every fight...and he`s a lefty..very few strikers i like better than lawlwr...i think nick diaz style gave him trouble...the long arms...the quick pepper shots he throws...smith looks for big shots...he`s nothing like diaz...

i had to parlay him with kimbo slice and gina carano...`cause this is a network show debut...and they`re the stars that the network is looking to showcase..

james "colosus"thompson is 2-6 in his last 8....and as far as i can tell,only one got out of the 1st round...that`s slice`s territory...

one guy is a small target,hits like a mule,bobs and weaves and keeps his chin tucked...the other guy is tall and reckless...rushes in with little defense..

he`s in there to lose to slice...they were trying to find a guy who`ll exchange with slice,a guy who`ll provide a short,action packed fight...with kimbo winning spectacularly...

they found their guy...

gina carano?...she`s another fighter that network t.v. is looking to showcase..she`s fighting a stand-up opponent...carano has excellent stand-up,but is also very good on the ground...she`s awfully big..she looks huge at 140...the other girl is listed at 135...i like that..

looking for more....

 

[The Sponge]

Cmon guys anyone ever see this guy Palhares fight? Salvery is my version of KIcks and Weasels Gurgel. I think he blows but i have no clue about the other guy. Could be two stiff :mj07: How the hell is the hockey game the same time as the basketball game which will run into the MMA:shrug: ? Couldn't they put the hockey game on at 330 or the NBA game. Im not big into hockey anymore but this series could be a special one. Two great passing and skating teams. Should be a good one.

 

[gardenweasel]

i wonder if antonio mendes is worth a shot at 5-1?

 

[The Sponge]

i wonder if antonio mendes is worth a shot at 5-1?

6 to 1 at greeky

 

[The Sponge]

from UFC.com

"As dominant as Penn appeared in his last bout against Stevenson, he looked like he was on the verge of passing out during post-fight interviews. Was that a sign of Penn returning to his lackadaisical approach to fight preparation or was it merely a physical response to the amazing adrenalin surge that certainly occurred after he finally won the title that he has coveted for so long?

Penn will tell you it was the latter. Other unnamed UFC fighters claim it was the former. Who is right? Who knows?"

Sponge says? aint worth the risk

 

[gardenweasel]

nobody`s picking sherk.....and my analysis is based on sherk getting out of the 2nd round...

i bet very small,because i have no fricking idea how the steroids affected sherk`s prior performances...

so,we`ll see....maybe penn`s improved his cardio(i`m a big believer in "you either have good cardio or you don`t"...i think it`s a genetic thing...you can "improve" bad cardio,but,you can never make a guy with naturally bad cardio into a guy with great cardio)...

or maybe sherk just ain`t the "muscleshark" if he`s not roided up.....:shrug:

a very nice little card with plenty of ????

 

[1837]

time to put my bets...

Tito +180
Jardine +150
Palhares +125
yoshida -160
BJ wins inside distance -187

all 1 unit play

 

[weepaul]

i had to parlay him with kimbo slice and gina carano...`cause this is a network show debut...and they`re the stars that the network is looking to showcase..



gina carano?...she`s another fighter that network t.v. is looking to showcase..she`s fighting a stand-up opponent...carano has excellent stand-up,but is also very good on the ground...she`s awfully big..she looks huge at 140...the other girl is listed at 135...i like that..

looking for more....

Hey Garden, Have you ever seen Kaitlin Young fight?
Carano might be in deep shit here. Kaitlin has true KO power. She is also strong and fit. There is a video of her on you tube doing that Gorilla routine that Sherk gets all the props for.
Carano put on weight during American Gladiators and said she only had 2 weeks to train for this fight.
If she struggles to make weight, I believe she will get her sweet arse handed to her.

Good luck.

 

[rawli007]

i wonder if antonio mendes is worth a shot at 5-1?

Just my 2 cents, but there is no evidence to suggest that Antonio Mendes even stands a chance to pull off the upset... think it would just be a waste of money to bet on Mendes... i have 5.5 - 1 and wont be making a play.

on a side note... some line changes for the main card bouts over the last 36 hours or so.. from my sportsbook:

Penn/Sherk has stayed the same

Silva/Jardine moved from -190/+155 to now being -180/+140

Machida/Ortiz has moved from -210/+160 to now being -185/+155

.... and Dana White said it best... James Thompson (guy fighting Kimbo) may get knocked out b4 he even steps into the ring.. Thompson is a joke

 

[gardenweasel]

Hey Garden, Have you ever seen Kaitlin Young fight?
Carano might be in deep shit here. Kaitlin has true KO power. She is also strong and fit. There is a video of her on you tube doing that Gorilla routine that Sherk gets all the props for.
Carano put on weight during American Gladiators and said she only had 2 weeks to train for this fight.
If she struggles to make weight, I believe she will get her sweet arse handed to her.

Good luck.

appreciate the heads up....:thumb:

 

[gardenweasel]

just checked her out...she looks strong...although,she`s shown fighting smallish looking opponents...

her and carano are both muay thai fighters...

problem solved...i used her in another parlay with kimbo and lawler...surprised they`d put cover girl carano in so tough in their 1st network show......:shrug:

lawler`s odds dropped and i got almost a 5-1 payout if it hits...

C`MON KAITLIN!....:grins:

was looking for a video of this sara schneider that subbed young in the 1st round....

i`d like to see her..

btw... i gotta say,carano is cute....

 

[kickserv]

Hey...this is a UFC 84 thread....how dare anybody talk about Kimbo in a UFC thread....and then post picks of chick fighters in a UFC thread.....

shame on GW...shame shame shame:nono:


:mj07: :mj07:


GW banned for 1 hour.......:mj07:

weepaul banned for half hour :mj07:

no Elite XC crap in a UFC thread......


oh and Gina is a cutie:142smilie

 

[kickserv]

most likely these are my final plays...if lines change drastically on some fights then I'll add some plays....but I am 90% sure these are my final wagers:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 60-58
Parlays 29-34

+73.10 Joe Rogans



Tito Ortiz beat Lyoto Machida $2.80 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.40 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.55 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sean Sherk beat BJ Penn $3.15 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 4 $36.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 5 $47.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Antonio Mendes beat Thiago Silva $6.25 *half Joe Rogan

Jon Koppenhaver beat Yoshiyuki Yoshida $2.45 *1 Joe Rogan

Kazuhiro Nakamura beat Rameau Sokoudjou $2.75 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #1
-----------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim

odds = $1.91 *2 Joe Rogans


Parlay #2
------------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim
Shane Carwin
Ivan Salaverry

odds = $4.90 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #3
---------------
Wilson Gouveia
Ivan Salaverry

odds = $2.84 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #4
----------------
Sean Sherk
Tito Ortiz
Keith Jardine
Wilson Gouveia

odds = $34.25 *half Joe Rogan

 

[gardenweasel]

kick...i count 13 wagers......that`s bad mojo,kimo sabe....:shrug: