UFC 84: MAY 24th, Las Vegas...Picks and Analysis

[kickserv]

true....very true...well said kegray1. I just think there will be lots of dogs barking in this one:SIB


and can not wait to see Tito and Dana...:mj07:


Some of these underdog odds are just so damn sweet:scared

 

[kegray1]

Who does Machida need to beat to impress you???
He has a TKO win over Rich Franklin(his only loss other than the 2 to Silva),TKO win over Stephan Bonner,He beat both Nakamura and Sokoudjou,as well as a win over BJ Penn(although it was in K-1 and I think Machida had about 35 pounds on him.

People don't give him respect because he is not loud and flashy.

The underdogs do look sweet,but I cant bring myself to bet against those guys when I think they should win. I agree you won't find odds that good on Sherk or Tito seldom if ever.

 

[kickserv]

And I know I keep saying this....but Jardine is a great pick....Jackson (his coach) will have a great game plan for Jardine, and Silva is under HUGE pressure, no pressure for Jardine. Also Jardine aint bad on the ground either ya know.

Also....you want to talk about pressure.....Sokoudjou is under huge pressure to win...UFC feeding him a "not so great fighter" but remember what I always say...go against the Pride guys...it'll make ya money.


Sherk....he's just gotta somehow find a way to get it to 4th round....I don't care what anybody says....Penn ain't got the heart Sherk has......Sherk has a real shot at winning this fight and the odds are amazing in my opinion.

Tito.....man I hope he wins.....Rogan will HAVE TO interview him if he wins....and what an interview that will be.


doggies galore at UFC 84

 

[kegray1]

Also....you want to talk about pressure.....Sokoudjou is under huge pressure to win...UFC feeding him a "not so great fighter" but remember what I always say...go against the Pride guys...it'll make ya money.
doggies galore at UFC 84

People always say that yet Pride fighters hold the belts???
Rampage,Silva, and Nog soon.

Also Nakamura fought 3 straight Pride fights before losing at UFC 76.

The pressure I speak of is the intense chasing,swinging,kicking pressure that has ALWAYS rattled Nakamura.

 

[kickserv]

kegray....I have been very successful making Rogans with betting against Pride guys......yes they don't all stink, but obviously time has shown that a lot of the Pride dudes were hugely over-rated. And with watching Dream and the other Japanese organizations in last 1.5 years, it really shows that a lot of these guys were nothing more then hype. But yes, they don't all suck, and some are good, but not as good as people once thought. And Sokoudjou could be another one of those over-hyped dudes...I mean he has very little number of fights in his life....has all this hype...comes to UFC and gets beat badly. And he ain't the only one. Yes he should smoke Nakamura, but if he loses this fight you won't see that Predator mask again:mj07: Bottom line....Pride dudes just have not got it done....no debate about that:SIB I mean we have Sherk/Penn on this card...can you imagine them against Gesias Calvancante, Gilbert Melendez, Shinya Aoki, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Mitsuhiro Ishida, or Hayato Sakurai..I mean please:mj07: I think I have made my point:SIB


Oh and gun to my head of course I'd take Sokoudjou, but I just have a funny feeling Sokoudjou chokes......I'll most likely just skip that fight anyway, unless the odds just get too good to pass up. But you are correct the dude he's fighting ain't that good.

 

[kickserv]

adding another parlay.....so we are currently looking like this:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 60-58
Parlays 29-34

+73.10 Joe Rogans


Tito Ortiz beat Lyoto Machida $2.80 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.40 *2.5 Joe Rogans

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.55 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sean Sherk beat BJ Penn $3.15 *1.5 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 4 $36.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Sherk wins in round 5 $47.00 *0.25 Joe Rogans

Antonio Mendes beat Thiago Silva $6.25 *half Joe Rogan

Jon Koppenhaver beat Yoshiyuki Yoshida $2.45 *1 Joe Rogan

Parlay #1
-----------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim

odds = $1.91 *2 Joe Rogans


Parlay #2
------------------------
Rich Clementi
Dong Hyun Kim
Shane Carwin
Ivan Salaverry

odds = $4.90 *1 Joe Rogan

 

[rawli007]

Sokoudjou

Sokoudjou

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24756810/

... this article made me think Sokoudjou has his head on straight.. I dont see any way that Nakamura could put him in danger, really... was hoping to get better odds on "The African Assassin." Im far from sold on Sokoudjou, but at least he realizes how obnoxious he looked on the ground against Machida...

And to the question above "who does Machida have to beat to impress you?" Answer: Tito

...All Machida has done that was truly impressive was beat Franklin. The Bonnar fight was stopped due to a cut and most of Machidas UFC opponents have been stand up guys who were just asking to get waxed by Machida... He didnt really do anything to put Nakamura in danger.. and going to decisions w/ Hoger and Heath is nothing to get excited about. Hes never had a test like Tito, period.

with that said, if Tito stands w/ Machida he will get beaten... Machida has laser-like striking and is a world class karate guy... EXTREMELY accurate but not much power to speak of (except against Franklin). Tito will have to ground and pound his way to victory... if he does that he'll win.

 

[layinwood]

Damn, I don't like the fact that the line has gone up so much more on the Tito fight. To me that's a pretty bad sign.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

wow kegray.......I totally disagree with all your picks:mj07: :mj07:

Even like Nakamura, but not sure if I'll put Rogans on him or not.

Love Sherk, Jardine, and Tito at nice odds:SIB

Love Jardine to win:SIB

Honestly Kickserv, I think you might go winless with those bets.


Thiago is gonna DESTROY Mendes. I'm telling you guys, Thiago is the next LHW champ that's gonna put FEAR into people.

 

[rawli007]

Damn, I don't like the fact that the line has gone up so much more on the Tito fight. To me that's a pretty bad sign.

I've still got the same line in my book for Machida/Ortiz, but Silva/Jardine has moved to -200/+160 !!!

I now have:

3 units on Tito

2 units on BJ

Let me just say ...WWWWWWWWWAAAAAHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOO TOMORROW NIGHT IS GONNA BE FUN TO WATCH!!! just checked out some press conference footage at UFC.com....

 

[layinwood]

On Monday Pinnacle had Tito at +163, today it's at +185.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I just don't understand Tito.

If you watched that video last night on Spike, and followed Tito throughout his career, you can see it. He's full of shit. He isn't ready for this fight, and he was SOOO inconvincing when he said fighting is his life, and he has nothing....WTF?

Honestly, I wouldn't be suprised if Machida wins this 1st Rd, referee stoppage.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I am gonna be so distraught tomorrow night. It's the lady and I's 2 year anniversary and we're going up to our condo on lake erie for the weekend.

I really don't want to, but every man at some point in his life haas to make the sacrafices.

She SAYS we can try to find a bar, but there's no ****ing bars that would show the fight up there. She knows it, and that's why she said it...LOL

 

[rawli007]

Dont let her do u like that, BUCS !!!! :mj07:

This is a card u dont wanna miss LIVE... :scared

Maybe if u have a laptop wait for her to pass out and order it online :shrug:

.... youll be ok as long as u DONT find out the results b4 u see it... that just no fun.. ive tried it.

:SIB

 

[kickserv]

anybody see that shirt Tito wore at the weigh-ins....that was funny stuff:mj07:

wonder what he's gonna do on Saturday.....wew baby:scared



gee...I wonder why Dana wasn't there....he's been at every weigh-in, but this one he misses......classic :mj07:

 

[kegray1]

And to the question above "who do...o get a decision unless it is VERY ONE-SIDED.

 

[kegray1]

BUCSNOTYUCKS----

Any HOOTERS around??
All the Hooters in Houston show the UFC. Not sure if that is a nationwide thing or if it just depends on manager.

 

[rawli007]

There is something about Machida that seems to give people problems. The KO of Frankilin was a nice knee that started the trouble(see it on Youtube). The cut on Bonnar happened because he was getting his ass kicked. I agree that Tito must and will go for ground and pound. This fight comes down to Machida's ability to avoid the takedowns. Like I said, I don't see anyway Dana lets Tito get a decision unless it is VERY ONE-SIDED.

Yea, i gotta admit... Bonnar looked like he was shadow boxing a bit... theres no doubt Tito needs to put Machida on the ground to even stand a chance. as i once said, Machida is the human version of nightcrawler... very elusive... Just not easy to look good striking against a top-level karate guy... they arent easy to hit after years of experience in full contact karate tournaments.

I can only hope Tito is smart enough to take him down... Tito isnt the sharpest knife in the drawer, though.

Ill never understand some of these guys gameplans..

:shrug: :shrug:

 

[kegray1]

Did anyone see the weigh-in?
Tito took off his gear and low and behold, he was wearing a t-shirt that said "Dana is my bitch".

Of course Dana was nowhere to be seen.
It was pretty funny.

 

[kickserv]

yes I saw it....hence my post above:SIB