Boxing 4/3 - 4/4

[A2C]

Wow the over 9.5 rounds line on the Carlos Hernandez vs Vicente Escobedo went from +125 to -500 in about an hour! I made a meduim play at +125 but I didn't think I was getting a great line and still don't.

Hernandez has a great chin and Escobedo has only been down once against Daniel Jimenez which was from a short jab that Escobedo took when he was off balance, but never hurt. This fight should go the full 10, but -500 is ridculous. I mean that is the kind of line that you see when two powder puff female boxers get with those short 2 minute rounds fight.

:mj03:

Yes, I agree. The +125 was obviously a good play, but you almost have to think about that under at +300. Carlos has never been KO'd, but it's putting it nice to say that he's in the "twilight" of his career.

Here're my plays so far. Hopefully, I don't have the same bad luck as last time when I re-posted them here.

Figueroa (+275) (Sportsbook) -- 1 unit
-Seems like a bit of a gift given that this is practically an even money fight. Bailey loses if he doesn't score the KO, and I think Figueroa can stay out of trouble. The lackluster showing against Emmanuel Augustus seems to be driving this line. I still remember betting on Bailey against Chop-chop Corley the first time around, when Bailey showed that he just can't deal with speedy boxers.

Andrade-Tsypko under 9.5 (+125) (Bodog) -- 2.5 units
--Value here, as Andrade stops opponents unless they're world class (and even then...) Tsypko's not at that level.

Chavez (+285) (Sportsbook) -- 1 unit
--If this goes the distance (which is likely), Chavez will get love on the cards in Austin. (The over's also a good play, but I'm thinking Chavez takes it if it goes that far).

Parlay: Andrade, Sosa, Escobedo, Valero, Bradley (+223) (Sportsbook) -- 1 unit
--Despite my post about avoiding the chalky parlay, I can't resist this chance at pooling some easy wins together in order to get Bradley at the dog odds. I was hesitant on playing Bradley due to my general rule against laying over -150 chalk on an individual bet, and I can't get a good read on the outcome props (Bradley should win a decision, but it's easy to imagine him landing a shot that KO's Holt). Yet, it defies the imagination for the other four fighters to lose, so that's the rationale for this one.

 

[matt19780]

but you almost have to think about that under at +300. Carlos has never been KO'd, but it's putting it nice to say that he's in the "twilight" of his career.

Yeah I mean if Hernandez is taking a pounding from Escobedo's left hooks, it is not inconceivable that doesn't come out for the next round and retires on his stool. But I think he soldiers on for the distance and takes his lumps like he has in past losses.

btw, I had all those picks already except in the 5 team parlay I picked Francisco Figueroa instead of Bradley. Definitely riskier with Figueroa, but I think he outworks Randel Bailey and since he is the first fight in the parlay I can make another parlay after the fight if he doesn't come though.
:thumb:

 

[THE_THONG]

we're prolly gonna lawrence cole ref one of the fights

he usually doesn't stop them too early, but dude adds a layer of bs

forgot...

famoso and jesus chavez are both texas guys, so commision will likely let them take beating to make it the distance for a moral victory

 

[Ghost Kid]

Good to see you posting A2C !
This looks to be a promising week
5 tier parlays are hard to hit, but as long as Bradley pulls through, I think you will cash that

But I don't know much about the cat fighting Sosa

At even money I like Bailey and Katsidis, but forget about it at the odds they are at. Good dog plays (I like Frankie better than I like Chavez).

Back in the morning with my plays-
Good luck everybody
:toast:

Thong makes a good point...Cole will probably get one of these bouts
The worst professional referee in the world today
Remember when he told JM Marquez
"you are up on the cards if I stop it...do you want me to stop it?"
WTF!?

 

[matt19780]

Remember when he told JM Marquez
"you are up on the cards if I stop it...do you want me to stop it?"
WTF!?

That was classic! I think he received a 6 month suspension and fine for that comment to JMM during the fight.

:mj07:

 

[THE_THONG]

doofus lawrence cole slaw covered up his mic thinking it was the only live pickup in the house
:mj07:

 

[frank s.]

Thong-lines are about the same.

 

[nj]

--

 

[nj]

btw anyone know what happened to Pinnacle? despite having pedestrian limits, they still had the best lines, so I stayed there. Now they post lines at the last minute or not at all, it's very erratic.

 

[nj]

I took small Jesus Chavez too, given that it's in his hometown, and Katsidis doesn't know to use range range and fight smart. He'll let the shorter Chavez come inside and leave himself open to a robbery.

 

[Zerwas]

I played Estrada Povetkin over 7 (-200) (Bwin).
Thats not an easy fight for povetkin, I'm curious to see the weigh-in.

I also have some money on Bradley, he just seems the more reliable of the two, I was really impressed by his showing against Witter, great speed and ring generalship...and his power is better than his record suggests....he might even stop Holt.

Since Fightwriter and A2C are on Figueroa I might as well give him a try, he seems to be dedicated and Baily is no spring chicken... (small bet).

Valero is moving up in weight and Pitualu might just be his toughest opponent.
I see this fight going some rounds, though I dont know a lot on Pitualu (probably spelled his name wrong as well ;-))
I think the over might be worth a shot.

Graham likes Sosnowski as well, I'm not sure though, Pianeta -while nothing special- fights in a calm and collected (or confident) way. It wont be easy for Sosnowski to win a decision in Germany...

 

[Ghost Kid]

Friday morning notes:

Marali beat Gamaliel Diaz in South Africa - by 12 round decision. He takes the vacant IBO junior lightweight belt. Diaz was knocked down in the 7th and lost every round by the fightnews account. Didn't see a line on this anywhere.

Also, did not see a line for Hurtado and Morua. But the fight is on Telemundo tonight.

Weights:
Diosbelys Hurtado 146 vs Arturo Mor?a 144

 

[Ghost Kid]

Weights from Germany:
IBF mandatory heavyweight challenger Alexander Povetkin weighed in at 230 lbs for his clash with fellow former Olympian Jason Estrada, who weighed 247.1 lbs. They meet Saturday night at the Burg-W?chter Castello in D?sseldorf. Povetkin is risking a title shot against world champion Wladimir Klitschko in this bout.

That's an awful weight for Estrada.


Weights from Canada:
WBO junior welterweight champion Kendall Holt weighed in at 139.9 lbs for his unificaton showdown with WBC champion Timothy Bradley, who weighed 138.6 lbs. They meet Saturday night on SHOWTIME CHAMPIONSHIP BOXING in a highly anticipated bout at the Bell Centre in Montreal.

 

[Zerwas]

True, I was hoping for Estrade to be at close to 240 lbs.....and btw, Povetkin is a little heavy too...

 

[Romi]

Weights from Germany:
IBF mandatory heavyweight challenger Alexander Povetkin weighed in at 230 lbs for his clash with fellow former Olympian Jason Estrada, who weighed 247.1 lbs. They meet Saturday night at the Burg-W?chter Castello in D?sseldorf. Povetkin is risking a title shot against world champion Wladimir Klitschko in this bout.

That's an awful weight for Estrada.


Weights from Canada:
WBO junior welterweight champion Kendall Holt weighed in at 139.9 lbs for his unificaton showdown with WBC champion Timothy Bradley, who weighed 138.6 lbs. They meet Saturday night on SHOWTIME CHAMPIONSHIP BOXING in a highly anticipated bout at the Bell Centre in Montreal.

A little concerned about my over play there. Estrada is ALL talk. Talks a mean game but at that weight he doesn't beat a world class fighter. I'd be shocked to see estrada win it...I still think it goes the dst but not as confident now. WTF is up with these fat american Hvys???

 

[Romi]

My plays

Bradley-lrge

Over on Diaz/Reyes-med/lrge

over on pov/est-med

andradre lrge

parlay andrade,sosa, valero -med

 

[Ghost Kid]

True, I was hoping for Estrade to be at close to 240 lbs.....and btw, Povetkin is a little heavy too...

wow...you're right...highest weight of Povetkin's career..geez...these damn heavyweights....

 

[Ghost Kid]

Diosbelys Hurtado +200
Arturo Morua -280

Over 11? -165
Under 11? +125

:00x32

 

[Ghost Kid]

Weights from Texas:

Unbeaten former WBA super featherweight champion Edwin Valero weighed in at 134.5 lbs. today for Saturday night?s clash for the vacant WBC lightweight title against Antonio Pitalua, who weighed 135 lbs. They headline the ?Lightweight Lightning? pay-per-view card at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas.

No undercard weights yet.

 

[Romi]

Diosbelys Hurtado +200
Arturo Morua -280

Over 11? -165
Under 11? +125

:00x32

I would have taken Hurtado +200 in a heart beat. I still took him +157. Not sure whats left in the tank...if anything. But this guy was a serious fighter at one time. He was giving Pea a lesson, believe it or not, for 10 1 /2 rds before Pea unloaded in his only late rds stoppage. Pea just about needed a ko at that point. Hurtado also had prime Tszyu on the floor twice. Obviously he's not the same fighter but neither is Morua and morua was never in Hurtados class. Perhaps the under has some value with 2 aging vets.