Paq-DeLaHoya- I love this
- Thread starter punchmaster
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- Jun 23, 2008
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Thanks so much for the info Frank and Graham.
Much appreciated as I am considering a big one here.
My biggest bet of the year so far was Joshua Clottey.
I got him in Vegas for -240 a few days before the fight
(online he was anywhere from -260 to -300)
Needless to say, it was worth it searching for the better line
Not always, but often, the publlic is swayed by names like Zab Judah and Roy Jones
In this case, though, I'm not so sure....we have Oscar and Manny....2 big names superstars with huge bettors backing on each side....
Nobody knew who Joshua Clottey was....that was an ideal situation...
Good luck fellas
On a side note, weepaul, Jonathan Banks just pulled out of the fight with an injury !
I'm pissed about this....I, for one, believed Enzo was about to whip his ass on Saturday....Banks is shitty.....
Much appreciated as I am considering a big one here.
My biggest bet of the year so far was Joshua Clottey.
I got him in Vegas for -240 a few days before the fight
(online he was anywhere from -260 to -300)
Needless to say, it was worth it searching for the better line
Not always, but often, the publlic is swayed by names like Zab Judah and Roy Jones
In this case, though, I'm not so sure....we have Oscar and Manny....2 big names superstars with huge bettors backing on each side....
Nobody knew who Joshua Clottey was....that was an ideal situation...
Good luck fellas
On a side note, weepaul, Jonathan Banks just pulled out of the fight with an injury !
I'm pissed about this....I, for one, believed Enzo was about to whip his ass on Saturday....Banks is shitty.....
- Jun 23, 2008
- 14,004
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Predictions via ESPN.com:
GRAHAM HOUSTON
Pacquiao was getting hammered by Juan Manuel Marquez's left jabs in two fights at 135. Now he's facing the left-handed firepower of a man three weight divisions bigger than JMM. Oscar TKO 10.
KIERAN MULVANEY
It isn't just size but also a style matchup for Pacquiao. De La Hoya is all wrong for Pacquiao. Unless the Golden Boy has declined seriously, which is possible, I'll go with Oscar by TKO.
DAN RAFAEL
A lot of folks think this is a De La Hoya blowout because of his size advantage. I don't buy that. I think it will be a competitive fight, but I also think Oscar will get the job done via a midround TKO.
GRAHAM HOUSTON
Pacquiao was getting hammered by Juan Manuel Marquez's left jabs in two fights at 135. Now he's facing the left-handed firepower of a man three weight divisions bigger than JMM. Oscar TKO 10.
KIERAN MULVANEY
It isn't just size but also a style matchup for Pacquiao. De La Hoya is all wrong for Pacquiao. Unless the Golden Boy has declined seriously, which is possible, I'll go with Oscar by TKO.
DAN RAFAEL
A lot of folks think this is a De La Hoya blowout because of his size advantage. I don't buy that. I think it will be a competitive fight, but I also think Oscar will get the job done via a midround TKO.
OK guys, im in at -185.
Best boxing forum on the net, and ALL you guys are on the same side. :scared If there were only more knowledgeable boxing fans, like many of u here on this board.....
No pressure..... if i lose i'll blame it all on weepaul. :142smilie
Best boxing forum on the net, and ALL you guys are on the same side. :scared If there were only more knowledgeable boxing fans, like many of u here on this board.....
No pressure..... if i lose i'll blame it all on weepaul. :142smilie
I'm married with kids mate!!
I'm used to being blamed!!!
:mj07: :mj07:
weepaul, might u know anything about Will Ribeiro, who is fighting Brian Bowles on this Wednesday's WEC card?? I ask b/c i read Ribeiro was a member of the Brazilian Olympic boxing team........... never seen Ribeiro fight, but he's regarded as well-rounded...
Bowles is very talented, sounds like this could be a good one. :SIB
I have not seen Ribiero but I have heard that he is good. I have seen Bowles a few times and he is good.
Ribiero being a member of the Brazilian boxing team does not mean much. So was little Nog, just before he got dummied in 20 seconds by Sokadju :mj07: :mj07:
im still looking into the fight, but ive managed to dig up a good bit of footage on him. if im not mistaken, he is a former Shooto champ, but seems Bowles has definitely had the more quality opponents.
looking for Ribeiro's last fight, a split decision win over Chase Beebe.
off topic. sorry. kurby
Ya know, I'm recollecting how BAD his Oscar-ness looked after Stevie Forbes smacked him around. DLH won, but he looked not too good, did he? Now I only say this as Manny Pac is 2x as fast as Forbes. He is tough and is the real Everyready bunny. Pac-man has everything goin aganist him, except, speed, determination, youth and toughness. Oscar will block lots of shots, BUT, that doesn't mean Pac won't win rounds on sheer volume. This only makes me more convinced the Pac-man-1st 3 rds+1.5-170 is a strong play. I don't recall Pac ever starting slow. Sure, this fight is a whole different animal, I know!
The Lederman props are the best way to take advantage of Pac in this fight imo. He has always been a favourite of Lederman anyway, and has been given rounds based solely on being the aggressor. Oscar will likely feel him out the first round and keep him at bay with the jab, I expect Pac to set a faster tempo, and to try to disrupt Oscar's rhythm. This means a volume of punches, if ineffective, but it catches Lederman's attention.
Oscar should hit that rhythm by round 3 or so and start throwing power counter punches, but Pac will probably get away with lunging in the first 2 rounds while Oscar prepares to time him. I don't think we'll see an early flash KD either, I think the KO will come from accumulated punishment after a serious KD, in the mid rounds.
To clarify, I don't use 5D, so I won't be putting money on my opinion here. The only Lederman prop I've seen on a site I use was Pac ahead after 3 +140, which is lousy.
Oscar should hit that rhythm by round 3 or so and start throwing power counter punches, but Pac will probably get away with lunging in the first 2 rounds while Oscar prepares to time him. I don't think we'll see an early flash KD either, I think the KO will come from accumulated punishment after a serious KD, in the mid rounds.
To clarify, I don't use 5D, so I won't be putting money on my opinion here. The only Lederman prop I've seen on a site I use was Pac ahead after 3 +140, which is lousy.
i don`t disagree with your 3 round wager,franks....of course,neither do the books(-170)......you have to worry about a knockdown,imo...
lemme add this about stevie forbes.......go back,if you can find it,and watch stevie forbes vs carlos hernandez....about as tough and hard fought a 10 rounds as i`ve ever seen...i don`t think hernandez was ever quite able to muster that finishing oomph after that fight(which i had forbes winning close,btw..those scores were horseshit)......i really think that fight diminished hernandez,....he lost a number of close decisions after that fight...i think that fight with forbes diminished him......
that said,look at the guys that forbes has fought of late...most alot bigger...and the ones that weren`t were tough hombres...
a slew of junior middles on the contender and he still made it to the final...he was robbed vs demetrius hopkins,beat francisco bojado and fought dlh and andre f-cking berto....
imo,manny doesn`t survive that murderers row...
for sheer toughness,forbes is tougher than manny...
is he better?...no...but i think he`s more savvy and handles these bigger dudes much better than manny ever will...
forbes doesn`t look like much...but i`d wager he`s every bit as tough and resilient as any boxer drawing breath...
manny ain`t stopping oscar...i think we all agree on that...manny steamrolls guys...he`s quick,yeah......but he ain`t as quick as that stiff david diaz made him look...talk about your perfect opponent...
he`s gonna have to negotiate that jab coming in from a guy with a 4+ inch height advantage....
manny`s never seen this before...what`s manny bring that dlh`s never seen?...shortness?.... is he slicker than pernell whitaker?...quicker than floyd?....that extra weight ain`t helping his quickness..
i suspect that manny will have his moments early vs oscar...as forbes did...but i don`t think he can sustain with a jr. middleweight who has middle to super middle power in his left hook...
and oscar has nacho beristain in his corner...who mentored the marquez brothers...two guys that handle lefties relatively well...
manny`s basically looking at jmm...only 4 inches taller,with a longer reach...a better chin...and around 15-20 pounds heavier...
theres only one way for manny to win....he has to outbox oscar for 12 rounds.....and he can`t do it from the outside...
the guy`s not what i`d call a technician...he loses to marquez both times without the knockdowns...and i doubt he`s knocking oscar down...
anything can happen...i know....i just don`t see it....
if anybody can find some trusted boxing prognosticators that like manny in this fight,please post them...
i`d like to see what they`re saying...
thanks..
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Remember: Pac has been a pro for 13 years with 47 fights, and has been in brutal and punishing bouts. Oscar has been a pro for 16 years with 39 bouts, and has imo taken less punishment. Both have heavy mileage on them.
Pac's speed is TBD. He puts on muscle easily, and reports say that he's hitting with great power. I watched him worked the mitts briefly with roach on fighthype, didn't see anything noteworthy.
Tim Starks at mvn.com is doing an excellent write-up for this bout, I think he's doing a new article each day until the bout, and has dissected this in depth. After reading gw's post, I should note that Starks hasn't posted a pick either way, but in his tone I can tell he's picking Oscar.
Pac's speed is TBD. He puts on muscle easily, and reports say that he's hitting with great power. I watched him worked the mitts briefly with roach on fighthype, didn't see anything noteworthy.
Tim Starks at mvn.com is doing an excellent write-up for this bout, I think he's doing a new article each day until the bout, and has dissected this in depth. After reading gw's post, I should note that Starks hasn't posted a pick either way, but in his tone I can tell he's picking Oscar.
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- Jun 3, 2008
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Doug Fisher:
"I can envision a Pacquiao victory on Dec. 6. I haven’t seen enough of the Filipino icon in camp to outright pick him to win, but I’ve seen enough of Pacquiao’s training for this fight to convince myself that he will be competitive. I don’t view this as a blowout or one-sided fight at all. I think Roach is being 100 percent honest when he says he believes Pacquiao can stop De La Hoya. They aren’t training or planning to try and take De La Hoya out early, or to even attempt to overwhelm the larger man from the start, but if they see any signs of weakness or fatigue late in the bout, they will press the action and try to force a stoppage.
From what I’ve seen, Roach and Pacquiao are working on boxing from a distance, getting De La Hoya to lead and counter punching in the early rounds. The only time he’ll have Pacquiao dart in close is after he ducks or rolls under De La Hoya’s jab or right cross; once Manny is inside Oscar’s reach, he’ll crack the bigger man’s body from either side. They won’t apply pressure until it appears that De La Hoya has begun to fade, and Roach is pretty confident that will happen after six or seven rounds.
Like you, I agree that “Oscar’s size, length, jab and left hook” will cause Pacquiao problems, which is why I believe this is such an intriguing fight."
Easy to write, more difficult to accomplish...
This statement is HUGE.
I honestly believe with Pac moving up and Oscar moving down, that the speed is going to be close between them.
I don't want to sway anyones bets here.
Just keep in mind that Pac has been stopped twice in 3 rounds and wobbled badly by Larios in the third as well. :toast:
i will be very curious to see how pacquaio is gonna "box oscar from the outside" given the height and reach differential...
and this speed stuff...i think the diaz fight is fresh in everyone`s mind...i`d look fast against diaz..
didn`t oscar just go 12 competitive rounds(at least on the scorecards) with floyd mayweather?...
you know what the logical step-up fight for manny would have been?...hatton vs manny..in england...
anybody doesn`t think that wouldn`t do blockbuster business?...
now that i`d pay to see...and i`d take ricky on the size differential and body punching in that one....
i don`t recall ever seeing manny concentrate on anyone`s body...maybe my memory`s faulty,but isn`t manny more of a headhunter?...
and this speed stuff...i think the diaz fight is fresh in everyone`s mind...i`d look fast against diaz..
didn`t oscar just go 12 competitive rounds(at least on the scorecards) with floyd mayweather?...
you know what the logical step-up fight for manny would have been?...hatton vs manny..in england...
anybody doesn`t think that wouldn`t do blockbuster business?...
now that i`d pay to see...and i`d take ricky on the size differential and body punching in that one....
i don`t recall ever seeing manny concentrate on anyone`s body...maybe my memory`s faulty,but isn`t manny more of a headhunter?...
True, now that you mention it, I don't recall a focused body attack but I think he can take instruction and roast some ribs, but boy is he going to need to be quick, in and out to avoid the counter
Here he is this week and as Chris Arreola might say. "That's a strong looking motherfukker"
It is amazing the way he's carrying 147 , bit of a freak, some serious lower leg muscles also like most Fillipino/Thailanders seem to have.
http://www.fightnews.com/fightnews_2/headlines//EkklkZAVyuosFibJRW.html
