RUGBY WORLD CUP 2003 (10 October-22 November 2003)

[pbg]

LOCAL VENUE INFORMATION

LOCAL VENUE INFORMATION

FOR ALL YOU GUYS RIGHTLY HAVING A CLOSE LOOK AT THE WEATHER/VENUES ETC.

ALL THE GAMES IN MELBOURNE ARE BEING PLAYED AT TELSTRA DOME,WHICH IS AN ENCLOSED VENUE,ROOF SHUT,FOR ALL GAMES.

THIS VENUE IS USED FOR AFL FOOTBALL IN WINTER AND HAS COME UNDER VERY HEAVY FIRE BECUSE THE SURFACE IS SO HARD.THERE IS ONLY 10 CMS OF SOIL/GRASS OVER A CONCRETE BASS!!!!!

ALL AFL PLAYERS COMPLAIN ABOUT THE HARDNESS OF THE SURFACE AND THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY INJURIES AT THIS VENUE.

NOTE THE BIG INJURY TOLL FROM THE KIWI GAME YESTERDAY


I WAS SURPRISED AT THE POOR KIWI CONVERSATION RATE YESTERDAY,GIVEN PERFECT KICKING CONDITIONS

I DO NOT REALLY KNOW RUGBY SO WELL BUT I THINK THIS VENUE WOULD SUIT HARD RUNNING TEAMS WITH A GOOD KICKING GAME OVER STRONGER,SLOWER TEAMS.

MAYBE THIS SUITS CANADA BETTER BUT AS I SAID I DO NOT REALLY KNOW RUGBY

 

[hoss]

4/2 so far +2.2pts - really enjoyed watching todays rugby, especially Japans brave effort against Scotland - Wales did a professional enough job against Canada + England would probably have put 100 on Georgia if it hadn't been for the rain. Really looking forward to someone getting their prices out for the next round of matches, have a feeling there is going to be a MAX bet in there as someone overreacts to what we've seen so far!



hoss

ps what price some drunken Welsh ends up on here before the days out.?...:moon:

 

[crookycymru]

Hoss, that market is being traded at 1.01 on Betfair!!!

New Zealand 70-3 Italy
Ireland 45-17 Romania
France 61-18 Fiji
South Africa 72-6 Uruguay
Wales 41-10 Canada
Scotland 32-11 Japan
England 84-6 Georgia


Pretty level from a betting point of view after the first weekends games. Only Ireland letting us down, but Romania surprised me, and I would even go as far to say that they beat Ireland up front.
What we are seeing in these first games, is that the major teams are a little rusty, and are making silly handling errors, which they will soon patch up. The good news is that, as Hoss has pointed out, this will lead to a major over reaction on behalf of the layers, and there will be some good bets coming up.

Sorry I was not here to answer the Canada questions, but I had already posted Wales as the play, and they covered easily. Iestyn Harris was a class act, but Scotland were a major disappointment. It showed that they are the weakest of the UK teams, and Fiji may cause them problems.

For England backers, there is good news as it seems All Black vice captain Tana Umaga, may be out for the tournament. We all know that they have strength in depth, but he is a core of everything they do, and will be a major loss.

Back tomorrow with picks for Tuesday!

 

[crookycymru]

THE DRAGONS SLAYED THE CANUCKS!!!

Where are you Kyle???? :thefinger

 

[kickserv]

oh well


on another note.........kind of pathetic that there is no parity in this whole rugby world cup.........pretty much a joke.......they were interviewing the Canadian coach here on Canadian TV and he was saying the IRB should be ashamed of themselves and that the whole Federation is a complete joke. I mean, he was saying that there were players from the "lesser" countries that were even allowed to play (teams wouldn't release em).

pretty sad :nono:


I mean....look at these 1st round scores :nono:

 

[Pumpkin]

Have heard from some people close to the tongan team that they are targeting the match against Italy as there World Cup final - they have been in Canberra for over a week and to quote "have been kept on a short leash" - the days of 'Rugby away trips" look to be over.

The Tongans should also get the fair share of support here in Canberra

 

[hoss]

Tuesdays Match - Argentina v Namibia

3pts Argentina (-46) 10/11 Skybet, Wilson Sports

Was going to make this a MAX bet until the Argentine team news came through - sadly they've decided to rest their entire first team ( apart from Winger Albanese). I would have had this game priced up at a minimum of +63 for a full strength Pumas team - I was hoping to get really stuck in at something in the 50's. The 46 is a fair quote (as high as 52 elsewhere), but I've tempered my stake a bit.

We've already seen what Argentina can do - I reckon they are probably the 7th best team in the competition. They gave the Aussies a good work out + have proved recently that they can tough it out with the top nations ( beat France twice + lost by a point in S.A). Hopefully the first team will also get a run out during the game, which will add to the natural fitness advantage they possess. The side they have picked still has plenty of experience ( Playmaker Quesada has 35 caps) - and much of the back line play for the same Hindu club.

However, the real reason for getting involved is Namibia - they are far and away the worst team in the competition ( 20 pts worse than Georgia on my figures) - they only qualified for the tournament on try countback having drawn over 2 legs with Tunisia ( that hotbed of Rugby) - to put this into perspective Tunisia lost their subsequent play off with Spain by 17 pts on neutral ground. Spain than went on to lose by a 2-leg aggregate of 120-26 to the USA.
Using the most basic of formlines this puts the USA 64pts ahead of Namibia!!!!!
Don't forget that Namibia have also lost several of their better players due to Club commitments and in-fighting ( although their Flanker did once punch + headbutt a lion, which I like:nutkick )

Weather conditions look fine + I hope the Argies will do their best to fight for a starting place! No doubt Namibia will fight very physically, as long as the Pumas keep their cool we should be ok! this is guaranteed to get beat now I've written all this ....
:burnout :burnout

will post Wednesdays games tomorrow - early lines are Fiji (-16) v USA ; Italy (-12) v Tonga and Samoa (-28) v Uruguay.
I had both the first two much closer - would love to know any one elses opinions while I'm thinking about it

good luck
hoss

 

[crookycymru]

Kyle,

Firstly the Rugby World Cup is not a joke. It is a great great tournament, that is watched by billions worldwide. :nono:

However you make some valid points. The IRB have made mistakes, but it affects only a few teams. Dan Baugh of Canada would not play, as he had problems getting insurance, and would have had to meet the costs himself. Now this is an example of where the IRB should have stepped in. Some of the South Sea islander teams have suffered with players. However, the clubs are not stopping the players playing, it is the decison of a lot of players not to go, as they are able to earn more financially in the domestic game. The IRB have to address this, but it would make no difference to the results....such is the gulf in class.

These 1st round scores were inevitable. However, what do we do?? Do we make the tournament a ten team affair?? Of course not, the only way teams will improve is to be subjected to this kind of exposure. I think it is a nice sight to see these teams playing the games of their lives, and tackling as if their lives depend on it. It was not long ago that the Argies and Italians were considered as minnows of world rugby, but their improvement has been dramatic.

 

[crookycymru]

Now back to business.

Games restart tomorrow, and there is no way on this earth I can get involved in the game between Argentina and Namibia. I admire Hoss' bravery, as I have cases for both teams. However, I will watch and hope for the Puma cover.

As the dust settles on the first games, it seems a number of teams are suffering with injuries, no more so than favourites New Zealand and England. Now as a Welshman, this is great as it means South Africa will stuff the English, and we then beat the Boks in the quarters to make the last four. The Welsh then hammer the French before advancing to the final and..........:bs: :thinking: :wall: ok I am going to bed!!! :thefinger

I will be back tomorrow with Wednesday plays, where I will be making the strongest bet of the tournament so far, and probably one more play. Hoss...I agree with one of your opinions for those first two games.

 

[Pumpkin]

2pts Arg - 49.5, 1 Pt USA +19.5 and 1pt USA@$5.50

I agree with Hoss on the Arg/Nam game. Argentina will have Quesada as their kicker and he is in the same league as Wilkinson so just about every try will be worth seven points. Also believe that the Argies willbe looking to get as many points as possible to help their for and against.

I can't believe the USA price - I orginally gave fiji some hope in this tournament, but after the poor effort against the French it is hard to see why they are such big favs here. The USA will be well drilled and this could frustrate Fiji - they gave away alot of penalties against France and I can see that happening again

 

[UT-Longhorn]

So Crooky, are you playing anything for TUESDAY? or waiting till WEDS? Thanks and good luck.......

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Guys Im looking to fill one more Rugby match in a 3 team parlay, looking to take either Italy OVER Tonga to win outright, or FIJI over the USA to win outright.

Fiji is -580

Italy is -600

Which of these two do you like the best to win outright?
Thanks

 

[Pumpkin]

Can't say I like either of them:nono:

 

[hoss]

I agree with Pumpkin!! Find a tennis player instead! or better still have Benfica to win their UEFA cup game!

 

[crookycymru]

I cant see Italy losing to Tonga, so out of those two teams, I would have no hesitation putting in Italy.

I will put up tomorrows plays, after the Argentina-Namibia match in less than two hours.

 

[crookycymru]

Argentina 67-14 Namibia

Full marks to Hoss and Pumpkin, as I could not see nothing to make a bet on this game. It was a complete mismatch up front, where the Pumas destroyed the Namibia pack in scrums, and rucks. Credit must go to the Africans for sticking to it, and scoring two tries of their own, but they were not near the class of the Pumas.

 

[crookycymru]

Wednesday 15 October 2003

Fiji vs U.S.A

Perhaps a gross over estimation of Fiji by compilers across the world. What have they done to deserve to be near twenty points favourites against the Americans???
The Eagles actually have a very settled team taking the field tomorrow, and are certainly just outside the bottom tier of teams in this competition. On their path to the World Cup, the Eagles defeated Canada twice, Uruguay, hammered Japan, and lost by less than forty points away to Argentina. That form certainly matches up well against the Fijians, who were hammered by most of the Southern Hemisphere teams on their travels, and were only able to defeat Tonga by the closest of margins.
The Eagles field five players who were in action at the 1999 World Cup, so the occasion will not get to his team. The forwards are certainly very familiar with each other, as the front five have played together in up to the last twenty matches or so, so there is no danger that coach Tom Billups does not know his strongest team.
Fiji on the otherhand have lost their most dangerous attacking player, Auckland Blue Rupeni Caucaunibuca, to a ban for punching in his teams previous game against France. Although there is a threat elsewhere, this certainly does not entitle them to a status that they are three tries better than the Eagles.

3 Points U.S.A (+17) at 9/10 with BetDirect

Italy vs Tonga

The Azzuri welcome back a large bulk of the team that sat out the hammering by the All Blacks. For the Italians the World Cup starts here, as they are targeting the next three matches as their path into the World Cup quarter finals.
They can only benefit from being introduced into the Six Nations tournament, and while Tonga beat the Italians in 1999, it does not take a brain surgeon to guess who have made the most progress since the last World Cup. Defeat for the Italians would be a disaster again, but this will not happen. I really feel the Italians will target a bonus point in this match against what is probably the weakest of the South Sea Islanders teams, which takes the spread out of the question. Add this factor to Tongas reknowned ill discipline, and you have a very good chance of an Italian cover.

1 Point Italy (-11) at 5/6 with VictorChandler

 

[crookycymru]

For anybody who likes a speculative punt, I would not warn off anybody backing the U.S.A Eagles at odds of 5/1 to win this match. If they play at the top of their game, then they can pull it off, and land a good bet. For purposes of the forum, I will stick to the handicap only.

Good Luck

 

[hoss]

A comfortable enough win for Argentina - the power of their pack versus Namibia was a total mismatch! Every time Namibia had a scrum in the second half the ball was coming out on the Argentinian side. It was just a pity that some of the Argentinian handling wasn't a bit better. Can you imagine what even a second string Aussie side will do :nono:

On to Wednesday - I see Crooky has already nicked the bet of the day :moon: !

3pts USA (+17) 9/10 v Fiji - The form reasons for this pick are outlined in the thread above, so I won't go through that again, but I have Fiji only very slight favs for this game. Sure they will play flowing expansive Rugby, but I wonder how much ball they'll get + also how their discipline will subsequently hold up against a powerful + well organised USA pack. Americans recent opponents have been nothing special, but I don't think there is a lot between them and all the pacific island teams, they just don't (yet) have the profile to match. The loss of Caucau will be huge for Fiji.

1pt Tonga (+14) v Italy - I know Italy have rested some of their key players, but playing 2 games so close together can't be easy. I also think they've been going steadily backwards in the world order recently. The Tongans will be typically brave (+ probably get at least 1 sinbinned), but a 2 try start is ok for a point. the only team Italy have scored more than 30pts aginst recently was Georgia ( + they only got 31 then).

Can't play the game, would have liked Uruguay + 30 but not sure how they'll react physically + mentally after the kicking they took from the Boks.

good luck
hoss

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good call on the Argies Hoss. Enough to get me on board for a collect. Much appreciated.

Keep on rolling guys.....

:burnout :burnout :burnout