RUGBY WORLD CUP 2003 (10 October-22 November 2003)

[crookycymru]

England 25-6 South Africa
Australia 90-8 Romania
France 51-29 Japan

Nice to get back to winning ways with a 2-0 day, although a little fortunate with the England bet. South Africa should have been in the lead at half time, but as in my outright write up, the kicking of Johnny Wilkinson means England cover spreads time and time again, and Englands defence was rock solid. It was really game on up until that try by Will Greenwood, and time and time again, Sotuh Africa were so physical around ruck and maul, they turned over a lot of England ball.

Nothing fortunate about the Australia cover though, who were ruthless against Romania, and they played like I expected them to against Ireland. They along with England are the best teams I have seen so far in this World Cup, with New Zealand behind them both. However this means little at this stage in the tournament, so still all to play for.

Got at least one bet for tomorrow, and maybe even two, so check back later for write ups.

 

[bombercoops]

Good to see the aussies sneak in a win! 90 points in a game. Pawa, thought the AFL season must have started early when I saw this score!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hey bomber. Did you read about Fridays AFL Draft?? Yours and Christo's teams shafted mine. Real dirty stuff. Jade Rawlings left out in the cold for the Bulldogs to snatch up.

PAWA =

 

[crookycymru]

Sunday 19th October

Wales vs Tonga

Wales move on to what should be another straight forward victory against Tonga. Compilers have over reacted to Steve Hansens decision to leave out a number of his so called first choice players. However what they fail to realise is that a good bulk of this team are playing for places themselves, and that deep down Steve Hansen and a lot of the Welsh public dont know their best team themselves. This will ensure a big display from Wales, as players look to cement their places in the teams to face Italy and New Zealand.
Tonga meanwhile, are without their skipper Inoke Afeaki, and were poor against Italy. They made Italy look first class, and this is certainly not the case. They are always in danger of losing players to ill discipline, such is the nature of their game, and have failed to come close to Wales in the past. A bit of a gift from firms, as I anticipated a line of just over thirty points.

1 Point Wales (-23) at 5/6 with Victor Chandler

Passing on the other two games. Ireland will trounce Namibia, but if the Africans can get on the score board, it means Ireland will have to score over seventy points, and am not confident enough in them to achieve this. Absolutely no opinion on the game between Samoa and Georgia.

 

[Pumpkin]

More wet weather expected for the Cnaberra Game so have a slight leaning towards the plus. The wind is also picking up and Canberra Stadium can act like a wind tunnel sometimes so it may cause some scrappy play.

 

[crookycymru]

Ireland 64-7 Namibia
Wales 27-20 Tonga
Georgial 9-46 Samoa

A loser today, as Wales turn in a shocking performance against the Tongas in bad conditions. I was still confident of a cover despite the conditions, but if Steve Hansen didnt know his strongest team beforehand, he most certainly does now, as almost all the players brought in were poor. There is outrage here in Wales regarding the decision the leave out a bulk of the team that performed so well against Canada. What Wales need is consistency, and Steve Hansens head is very much on the chopping block here tonight.

Monday 20th October

Scotland vs U.S.A

A bit of a risky play here, but I am banking on Scotland turning in a poor performance again. If they play to their full potential, then Scotland can cover, but it is very unlikely against a team that did so well against Fiji, especially up front. The Eagles pack have the potential to disrupt a lot of Scottish ball here, and stalwarts Dan Lyle and Dave Hodges will need to be on top of their games again.
Scotland have brought in some players who will be starting their first games in this years World Cup, so there could well be a lack of structure early on. If U.S.A get on the scoreboard, then you would be looking for Scotland to score nearly forty points, and looking through the teamsheet, it seems there is little chance of this happening, paticularly with a lack of world class goalkicker in the Scottish camp. I am looking for American fly half Mike Hercus to put in a much improved kicking display, especially with kicks to touch. He cant get any worse, so I hope the Americans wont have to spend as much time camped in their own half, as against Fiji. Scotland to win but only by between two to three tries.

1 Point U.S.A (+25) at 10/11 with Ladbrokes

Hoss, great pick on the Bulls. Never in doubt, even when 6-0 down I reckon!

 

[hoss]

Crooky, beat me to it by 5 mins!!!!

bit of a hit + miss weekend - going 2/2 - Georgia landed on big bet (just ) - but the weather conditions definitely scuppered Ireland, who almost covered despite driving rain + lousy back play! England did the business without looking overly impressive + the Aussies stuffed Romania.

record now 8/5 +6.1pts

we're agreed on tomorrow!

4pts USA + 25 10/11 Ladbrokes

In addition to what is written above ( I agree about the fly half's kicking!!) - Scotland are not a team to run in loads of points - I think the only way this will happen is if their backs suddenly come to life in a way not seen for ages! USA have a good, technically strong pack + shouldn't concede needless possesion in the set plays.
The really good news is that the weather looks lousy again "few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening."

In addition:

0.5pts No Tryscorer USA v Scot 150/1 Stan James


Massive price considering the weather + the teams concerned - will be heading somewhere hot for a long time if this comes in

hoss

ps Hope some of you backed the Bradford Bulls - they won 25-12

 

[british bulldog]

Crooky and Hoss

Firstly Ladbrokes opened at 4/5 USA with a 25 point start and moved the line later to 8/11. At no time on Sunday was the price 10/11 as you have both quoted. Granted it was on Saturday until 9.36pm BST.

Secondly, why take +25 for USA on handicap when +29 was available at sporting odds at a price of 10/11.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Whats up BB. Been fun following the rugby crew. You guys ROCK!

 

[british bulldog]

Just saying it's fine posting plays and prices, but prices quoted should be those that are available at that time.

It's no good referring to oddschecker as their lines and spreads are out of date by as much as aday. They say they update every 15 minutes, but that is crap. It is up to the bookmaker themselves to forward line and price changes.

I have invested in a odds ticker that shows all opening lines and prices from 27 books and any changes appear within 2 minutes and the time of the changes are documented.

The most upto date odds from a free site for changes on all sports is tip-ex, followed by betbrain, although the later is only real reliable for football.

 

[british bulldog]

Sorry Crooky and Hoss

You are both correct, I have gone back through the "ticker" and 10/11 was available for the USA with Ladbrokes until 9.00am today (Monday 20th) where it went to 4/5 and then 8/11.

I was looking at the wrong bookmaker as it was the tote who had opened at 4/5 and went through various rates before closing at 8/13 on the USA.

Sorry once again.

 

[Brick]

USA Rugby

USA Rugby

First of all I want to say I'm so grateful for this site. It is virtually all the rugby news and discussion I ever get anymore as I live in a remote area of the country now where most people don't even know what rugby is never the less that the WC is now on. I played rugby here in the states for most of 25 years, and although things have changed a bit since 95 when I last strapped on the boots, the state of US rugby is still far behind the majority of the world. As a late answer to your question Crooky, there are many factors why US rugby will probably never come in line with the talent pool available. First and foremost is it is not recognized by most of the players employers as a big deal and therefore time off to practice and play with the select sides and national team are not readily available unless you can afford to pay your own way. Second the prime athletes are sucked into the notion that they will all someday be NFL or NBA players and make the multi-million $ contracts (hogwash) so they choose football and basketball at a young age and stay with it. Third, somewhat like Canada, the travel distances are so great to practice and play with the national team that it is often just not logistically posible to have the best play together most of the time. I've often wondered what would happen if the USA could hand pick players from the NFL and NBA and let them practice and play together for even 6 months and then release them on the world. Watch out!!!
Anyway this is getting too long winded and what I really wanted to say was thanks for your great coverage and analasys. It is really appreciated.

 

[alb]

Brick;
I watched the Scotland-USA game and I thought the same thing.......imagine if these guys actually played together all the time. Personally, I think the Yanks should play a little more 'football style' (more emphasis on speed in the open field and brute strength near the goal line). I must say I was disappointed on the final score (very close but no trys), although I am grateful their grit held on for the spread cover.

 

[hoss]

Scotland win by 24 to just sneak a winner! USA managed to hold it tight for long periods of the game, but didn't really threaten the try line very often + really made very few line breaks during the game. As hoped their line out + scrum held up well + as usual they opted to kick for territory rather than try anything fancy. Scotland scored a couple of decent tries, but again looked fairly toothless - I reckon they will be getting 20+ off the French when the time comes.

Brick + Alb - great to hear than you are watching the Rugby over there - USA certainly have the athletes to have a great side, it's just a pity that Rugby is so far down the pecking order - don't know whether you've ever seen them play 7's rugby, but every now + then they do a Quarterback style sideways pass the width of the pitch which the crowd love

On to business: record now 9/5 +9.2pts

tomorrows game is Italy v Canada - starts are generally between 16 and 19 for the Canucks. I've thought long + hard about this one + the only thing I've decided is to keep stakes small. The teams recorded similar performances against the Kiwis, both playing with weakened sides. Both are pretty much at full strength tomorrow + I can see a tight game early being scrapped out up front ( fancy there might be a sin-binning or 2 tomorrow too - neither of these take any crap ). What swings it for me is the order of play - Italy had a positive performance against Tonga on Wednesday, whilst Canada had to play NZ on Friday + take a physical battering - I'm convinced that timing of games while be a big factor in this competition. Canada recall their main man Al Charron + whilst its great that he's playing I'll be surprised if he lasts the match, his leg didn't look too clever last week.

so 1.5pts Italy -16 Skybet , Blue Sq 5/6

hoss

 

[hoss]

and also Bulldog, whilst I have no wish to get drawn into any sort of row ( this forum is generally the friendliest on here, apart from the golf one ) - apology accepted by the way - it is a bit rich to criticise us when there was a better line out there anyway ( if there was - i can't believe I missed it! ).
I'm also not the only one who noticed that following your 2 losers posted earlier in this thread, 2 very large stake (judging by your other bets) winners appeared to redress the profit - both not posted on here or there when I looked just before kick off

Anyway - let's just forget about it + concentrate on helping each other + all our buddies make a few bucks off the man!

hoss

 

[crookycymru]

Scotland 39-15 U.S.A

Hoss,

Are you sure that it is 5/6 at those firms???? :grins: I may have to check those odds with my odds ticker!! :moon:

Anyway, I thought that was a U.S.A cover this morning although we won by just the point. For once in a while, the Scots managed to kick some goals, and as is becoming he norm with the Americans, they compete well up front, but lack any class behind to score some tries. The Scots may have got lucky with two of their tries (debatable knock ons??), and were poor all over the field. What amazed me is that they actually won by twenty four.

Brick,

I really enjoyed reading your piece. I am glad you are watching the World Cup, and hope you become a regular contributor to these rugby threads!! :toast:

Finally, I am passing over tomorrows game between Italy and Canada. Totally agree with what Hoss says. I lean towards an Italian cover, but what bothers me is the Italians are bang in the middle of a tough schedule. If they gain a lead approaching the spread, I fancy them to take a lot of their main players off, as they are playing Wales as early as Saturday. Canada have the ability to at least put over ten points on the board, so you are then asking the Italians to score thirty plus. I dont think they will be too concerned with getting a bonus point tomorrow, as they are going to put all their efforts into the crunch game against Wales. Take these factors out, and I have no hesitation I would be on Italy covering the spread.

Good luck to those who bet!!

Away from tomorrow for two days, so may miss the opportunity to post on the Argentina-Romania game....however will be back on Wednesday night. I am sure Hoss or Pumpkin will find you a winner for Wednesday!!

 

[crookycymru]

Again I reiterate what Hoss has said. This thread has been top quality from start to finish with contributions from all over the world, but I will say this to you Derek.

It is obvious that you are the person supplying the rugby plays for the Sports Betting site, as I recently signed up for their free e-mail service, for interest purposes only. You sent out your first few bets, and also sent out New Zealand on the spread against Canada as maximum five point bet, which was reduced to a one point bet in your commmunity pages. There was no plays recommended to Sports Betting on the USA this morning, or on the Bradford Bulls on Saturday, and neither were they posted in this thread or on your pages before gametime. :nono:

You may have genuinely bet these games yourself, but this is my point about posting in the forums. All these posts are timestamped, so we would not be able to question your honesty, but if you was a honest man, you would admit that those bets were added to your community pages post gametime.

I am only commenting on what I see while we are on the subject of fabricating the truth, which is what you accused me and others of earlier. It is hard enough to get some interest going on rugby on this site as it is, without having posts questioning my integrity. I will rectify this situation....all posts made by myself are taken from lines and spreads at the exact time of my post. I know this as I visit the book in question beforehand to make my bet, just before I post the info on here for others to read.

Now, we have all had our say on the matter, so I really hope this does not develop into a slanging match between us all, as it would spoil what is otherwise a top class thread to date!

 

[british bulldog]

It is obvious that you are the person supplying the rugby plays for the Sports Betting site, as I recently signed up for their free e-mail service, for interest purposes only. You sent out your first few bets, and also sent out New Zealand on the spread against Canada as maximum five point bet, which was reduced to a one point bet in your commmunity pages. There was no plays recommended to Sports Betting on the USA this morning, or on the Bradford Bulls on Saturday, and neither were they posted in this thread or on your pages before gametime.


May I suggest that you e-mail the owner of the site at sportsbetting and ask him if I supply the rugby plays for both union and league.

I can tell you now that I supply occasional football plays, formula 1 and give my views on cricket to him.

SO BEFORE MAKING ANY STATEMENTS I SUGGEST YOU FIND OUT THE FACTS BEFORE MAKING THEM.

As you are in receit of the free plays from sportsbetting you will note that the cricket play given out today was for 2 points, I have suggested a three point play on this site. I have also not suggested the plays on the top batsman because I do not hold the same views on this market as the guy who runs the site. So your comment about 5 points on one site and 1 point in the community pages holds little credence.

I posted the USA game in the community pages early this morning, around 4.30am after noting that the line varied between +22 and + 28 and reading a compeling article on the USA rugby team. If both you and Hoss thought +25 was a good line, +28 was a better line.

As for saying my plays never appear at start of the game, that is pathetic. May I suggest that once through to the selections page or any other for that matter, that you refresh the page in future.


Now, you commented in a previous thread about me and I answered you in a civil manner and followed up with an e-mail to you, yet I posted here and then appologised for the error I made, which was the decent thing to do because I was wrong and you come back with slagging comments and statements that are totally in-accurate.


Anyway I suggest that you e-mail the guy who runs the site and ask him what sports do I help out in and if ever I give him advice or selections in either codes of rugby. When you have his reply then perhaps you will be cival enough to come back on here and appologise to me.

 

[kickserv]

just letting madjackers know that CRIS has Italy -15.5 at $1.91


and for guys like me........you can get Canada at +16.5 $2.00 at Pinnacle

go Canada........:canada1 :canada1


(and if I'm not mistaken hoss......that -16.0 loses if game ends 16-0 for Italy......so I thought I'd make you and others aware of the CRIS posting!)

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Anyone here think Canada can pull the upset? If not, I was thinking of putting Italy in a Moneyline parlay with a tennis player.......any thoughts on whether or not Canada can pull the upset, or should Italy win this one outright rather easily?:shrug: